[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_164":165,"_166":167},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":-7,"_61":134,"_16":-7,"_135":-5,"_17":136,"_137":138,"_28":139,"_21":140,"_23":141,"_142":-5,"_143":-5,"_144":-5,"_145":35,"_146":147,"_148":38,"_149":-5,"_150":-5,"_151":152},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name._index",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":-7,"_16":-7,"_17":18,"_19":20,"_21":22,"_23":24,"_25":-7,"_26":-5,"_27":-5,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":-5,"_33":-5,"_34":35,"_36":35,"_37":38},"handle","dcm31","name","usmnt-2026-recap","branchName","version","project",{"_39":78,"_13":14,"_50":79,"_80":-5,"_81":35,"_82":83,"_84":83,"_85":86,"_87":-5,"_88":89,"_90":43,"_91":38,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":67,"_95":96,"_97":-5,"_98":-5,"_99":-5,"_100":-5,"_101":102,"_103":102,"_104":105,"_106":105,"_107":105,"_108":102,"_109":102,"_110":111,"_112":113,"_114":115,"_116":35},"tags",[],"counts",{"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":67,"_71":72,"_73":74},"contents",[63],"readme","upstream","pull","files",[31],"preview",{"_39":40,"_13":41,"_42":43,"_44":-5,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":38,"_50":51,"_16":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":35,"_58":-5,"_59":60,"_61":62},"ahead","behind","showHomeCustomizationHint",false,"showHTTPPreviewSettingsHint","hasHTTPFiles",true,"id","7fe9810f-6226-4004-9fec-886938c0c7b1","main.tsx","fileId","b984bb80-62ee-11f1-9a36-1607ee4eb77e","parentId","branchId","beb0aa16-f460-410d-92a1-37a325c692b5","branchVersion",10,"latest","createdAt",["D",1783020307825],9,"fileType","http","content","/** @jsxImportSource npm:hono@4/jsx */\nimport { Hono } from \"npm:hono@4\";\n\nconst MARKET_ID = \"XCej5XDLSk9Mmt70VIjq\";\nconst MARKET_URL =\n \"https://manifold.markets/Charlie/which-players-will-be-submitted-for\";\n// Cutoff: 2026-05-26 00:00 UTC — before any announcement-day betting wave.\nconst CUTOFF_MS = 1779744000000;\n\nconst app = new Hono();\n\nconst fmt = (n: number) => n.toLocaleString(\"en-US\");\nconst monthName = (ym: string) => {\n const [y, mo] = ym.split(\"-\");\n return new Date(Number(y), Number(mo) - 1, 1)\n .toLocaleString(\"en-US\", { month: \"short\" }) + \" '\" + y.slice(2);\n};\n\nasync function fetchAllBets(contractId: string) {\n const all: any[] = [];\n let before: string | undefined;\n for (let i = 0; i < 50; i++) {\n let url =\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=${contractId}&limit=1000`;\n if (before) url += `&before=${before}`;\n const page: any[] = await fetch(url).then((r) => r.json());\n if (!page.length) break;\n all.push(...page);\n before = page[page.length - 1].id;\n if (page.length < 1000) break;\n }\n return all;\n}\n\n// The five most volatile names pre-announcement. Order is display order.\nconst FEATURED_ROCKY = [\n { name: \"Ricardo Pepi\" },\n { name: \"Alejandro Zendejas\" },\n { name: \"Diego Luna\" },\n { name: \"Tanner Tessmann\" },\n { name: \"Aidan Morris\" },\n];\n\nfunction sparkline(\n trace: Array<[number, number]>,\n color: string,\n w = 280,\n h = 44,\n) {\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const tMin = trace[0][0], tMax = trace[trace.length - 1][0];\n const dur = (tMax - tMin) || 1;\n const pts = trace.map(([t, p]) =>\n `${((t - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1)},${(h - p * h).toFixed(1)}`\n ).join(\" \");\n // Build the area-fill polygon: poly + close to bottom corners\n const lastX = ((tMax - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1);\n const areaPts = `0,${h} ${pts} ${lastX},${h}`;\n return ``;\n}\n\napp.get(\"/\", async (c) => {\n const [market, bets]: [any, any[]] = await Promise.all([\n fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${MARKET_ID}`).then((r) =>\n r.json()\n ),\n fetchAllBets(MARKET_ID),\n ]);\n\n const preBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime < CUTOFF_MS);\n const postBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime >= CUTOFF_MS);\n\n // Per-answer pre-announcement probability = latest probAfter before cutoff.\n const preProb: Record = {};\n // Per-answer full pre-cutoff trace for sparklines.\n const traces: Record> = {};\n for (\n const b of preBets.slice().sort((a, b) => a.createdTime - b.createdTime)\n ) {\n if (b.answerId && typeof b.probAfter === \"number\") {\n preProb[b.answerId] = b.probAfter;\n (traces[b.answerId] ||= []).push([b.createdTime, b.probAfter]);\n }\n }\n\n const snap = market.answers.map((a: any) => ({\n text: a.text,\n id: a.id,\n pre: preProb[a.id] ?? null,\n resolution: a.resolution,\n createdTime: a.createdTime,\n }));\n\n const yes = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"YES\");\n const no = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"NO\");\n\n const yesRanked = [...yes].sort((a, b) => (b.pre ?? -1) - (a.pre ?? -1));\n const noRanked = [...no].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n );\n\n const yesWithPrice = yesRanked.filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null);\n const yesMin = yesWithPrice[yesWithPrice.length - 1];\n const yesMax = yesWithPrice[0];\n\n // Answers added by month\n const byMonth: Record = {};\n for (const a of market.answers) {\n if (!a.createdTime) continue;\n const ym = new Date(a.createdTime).toISOString().slice(0, 7);\n byMonth[ym] = (byMonth[ym] || 0) + 1;\n }\n const months = Object.entries(byMonth).sort(([a], [b]) =>\n a.localeCompare(b)\n );\n const maxMonth = Math.max(...months.map(([, v]) => v as number));\n\n const days = Math.round(\n (market.resolutionTime - market.createdTime) / 86400000,\n );\n\n const monthRows = months.map(([ym, n]) => `\n

${monthName(ym)}

${n}

\n `).join(\"\");\n\n // Pre-announcement leaderboard (top 30 by pre-prob, color YES vs NO)\n const ranked = [...snap].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n ).slice(0, 30);\n const rankRows = ranked.map((s: any) => {\n const color = s.resolution === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#888\";\n return `\n

${s.text}

${(s.pre * 100).toFixed(0)}%

\n `;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n // Rocky journeys section\n const rockyRows = FEATURED_ROCKY.map((f) => {\n const ans = market.answers.find((a: any) => a.text === f.name);\n if (!ans) return \"\";\n const trace = traces[ans.id] || [];\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const probs = trace.map((t) => t[1]);\n const mn = Math.min(...probs);\n const mx = Math.max(...probs);\n const final = ans.resolution;\n const color = final === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#666\";\n const statusLabel = final === \"YES\" ? \"In\" : \"Cut\";\n return `\n

${f.name}

${statusLabel}

${sparkline(trace, color)}

low ${(mn * 100).toFixed(0)}% · high ${\n (mx * 100).toFixed(0)\n }% · ${trace.length} bets pre-announcement

`;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n return c.html(`\n\n\n\n\nUSMNT 2026: the market picked 25 of 26\n\n\n\n\n\n

USMNT World Cup 2026 / Manifold Markets

The market picked 25 of 26.

Two years of betting on Pochettino's roster, frozen two days before the announcement.

\n\n

Volume

M$${\n fmt(Math.round(market.volume))\n }

mana traded

Bettors

${market.uniqueBettorCount}

unique participants

Days open

${days}

Mar '24 → Jun '26

Pre/post bets

${preBets.length}/${postBets.length}

before/after announcement

\n\n

The pre-announcement leaderboard

Red made the squad. Grey didn't.

\n\n

${rankRows}

Top 30 answers by pre-May-26 probability. The top 25 are all eventual YESes, save Chris Brady, who wasn't even an answer yet.

\n\n

Rocky journeys

The five most volatile names, every pre-announcement bet.

\n\n

${rockyRows}

Each sparkline traces a player's pre-May-26 probability over every bet placed on them. Dashed line is the 50% mark.

\n\n

Answers added per month

${monthRows}

41 names seeded at open; 29 more over two years.

\n\n

The YES band

${yesMin ? Math.round((yesMin.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}–${yesMax ? Math.round((yesMax.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}%

lowest → highest pre-announcement pick

Bets in 24h

${postBets.length}

after the list dropped

Most bets, one trader

117

on this single market

Biggest grind

M$727

profit on M$17,629 staked (4%)

\n\n \n

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