${monthName(ym)}

${n}

\n `).join(\"\");\n\n // Pre-announcement leaderboard (top 30 by pre-prob, color YES vs NO)\n const ranked = [...snap].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n ).slice(0, 30);\n const rankRows = ranked.map((s: any) => {\n const color = s.resolution === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#888\";\n return `\n

${s.text}

${(s.pre * 100).toFixed(0)}%

\n `;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n // Rocky journeys section\n const rockyRows = FEATURED_ROCKY.map((f) => {\n const ans = market.answers.find((a: any) => a.text === f.name);\n if (!ans) return \"\";\n const trace = traces[ans.id] || [];\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const probs = trace.map((t) => t[1]);\n const mn = Math.min(...probs);\n const mx = Math.max(...probs);\n const final = ans.resolution;\n const color = final === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#666\";\n const statusLabel = final === \"YES\" ? \"In\" : \"Cut\";\n return `\n

${f.name}

${statusLabel}

${sparkline(trace, color)}

low ${(mn * 100).toFixed(0)}% · high ${\n (mx * 100).toFixed(0)\n }% · ${trace.length} bets pre-announcement

`;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n return c.html(`\n\n\n\n\nUSMNT 2026: the market picked 25 of 26\n\n\n\n\n\n

USMNT World Cup 2026 / Manifold Markets

The market picked 25 of 26.

Two years of betting on Pochettino's roster, frozen two days before the announcement.

\n\n

Volume

M$${\n fmt(Math.round(market.volume))\n }

mana traded

Bettors

${market.uniqueBettorCount}

unique participants

Days open

${days}

Mar '24 → Jun '26

Pre/post bets

${preBets.length}/${postBets.length}

before/after announcement

\n\n

The pre-announcement leaderboard

Red made the squad. Grey didn't.

\n\n

${rankRows}

Top 30 answers by pre-May-26 probability. The top 25 are all eventual YESes, save Chris Brady, who wasn't even an answer yet.

\n\n

Rocky journeys

The five most volatile names, every pre-announcement bet.

\n\n

${rockyRows}

Each sparkline traces a player's pre-May-26 probability over every bet placed on them. Dashed line is the 50% mark.

\n\n

Answers added per month

${monthRows}

41 names seeded at open; 29 more over two years.

\n\n

The YES band

${yesMin ? Math.round((yesMin.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}–${yesMax ? Math.round((yesMax.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}%

lowest → highest pre-announcement pick

Bets in 24h

${postBets.length}

after the list dropped

Most bets, one trader

117

on this single market

Biggest grind

M$727

profit on M$17,629 staked (4%)

\n\n \n

\n\n`);\n});\n\nexport default app.fetch;\n","deleted","label",[116],"pulls",1,"forks","envVars",{"_138":54,"_140":54},"connections",{"_138":54,"_139":54},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_20":115,"_13":116,"_117":48,"_118":-5,"_119":21,"_120":30,"_121":50,"_22":142,"_29":123,"_124":125,"_126":127,"_128":38,"_129":-5,"_143":144,"_91":145},["D",1783020307825],"children",[],[116],["D",1780891243747],{"_11":12,"_89":85},{"_11":12,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_45":46,"_86":87,"_88":38},{"_29":30,"_13":26,"_20":21,"_27":28,"_31":-5,"_32":-5,"_77":-5,"_78":-5,"_79":-5,"_80":14,"_81":12},"ctx",{"_70":-5,"_111":183,"_184":185,"_186":187,"_188":38,"_189":38,"_190":38,"_191":50,"_192":-5,"_193":-7,"_194":-7,"_195":54,"_196":38,"_197":38,"_198":-5,"_199":38,"_200":38,"_201":38,"_202":-5},"ENV",{"_154":155,"_156":157,"_158":26,"_159":160,"_161":162,"_163":164,"_165":166,"_167":168,"_169":170,"_171":172,"_173":174,"_175":176,"_177":178,"_179":180,"_181":182},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

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