[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_154":155,"_156":157},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_18":19,"_17":-7,"_117":-5,"_20":118,"_22":119,"_120":121,"_122":123,"_25":124,"_24":-5,"_125":-5,"_126":-5,"_127":53,"_128":129,"_130":44,"_131":-5,"_132":-5,"_133":134},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.code.$",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-7,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23,"_24":-7,"_25":26,"_27":-5,"_28":-5,"_29":-5,"_30":-5,"_31":-5},"handle","dcm31","name","usmnt-2026-recap","branchName","main","version","path","","project",{"_33":61,"_13":14,"_45":62,"_63":-5,"_64":53,"_65":66,"_67":66,"_68":69,"_70":-5,"_71":72,"_73":37,"_74":44,"_75":-5,"_76":-5,"_77":78,"_79":80,"_81":-5,"_82":-5,"_83":-5,"_84":-5,"_85":86,"_87":86,"_88":89,"_90":89,"_91":89,"_92":86,"_93":86,"_94":95,"_96":97,"_98":99,"_100":53},"tree",[56],"file","contents",[32],"upstream","pull","ahead","behind","envVars",{"_33":34,"_13":35,"_36":37,"_38":-5,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_17":47,"_48":49,"_50":51,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55},"id","7fe9810f-6226-4004-9fec-886938c0c7b1","main.tsx","fileId","b984bb80-62ee-11f1-9a36-1607ee4eb77e","parentId","branchId","beb0aa16-f460-410d-92a1-37a325c692b5","branchVersion",10,"latest",true,"createdAt",["D",1783020307825],9,"fileType","http","content","/** @jsxImportSource npm:hono@4/jsx */\nimport { Hono } from \"npm:hono@4\";\n\nconst MARKET_ID = \"XCej5XDLSk9Mmt70VIjq\";\nconst MARKET_URL =\n \"https://manifold.markets/Charlie/which-players-will-be-submitted-for\";\n// Cutoff: 2026-05-26 00:00 UTC — before any announcement-day betting wave.\nconst CUTOFF_MS = 1779744000000;\n\nconst app = new Hono();\n\nconst fmt = (n: number) => n.toLocaleString(\"en-US\");\nconst monthName = (ym: string) => {\n const [y, mo] = ym.split(\"-\");\n return new Date(Number(y), Number(mo) - 1, 1)\n .toLocaleString(\"en-US\", { month: \"short\" }) + \" '\" + y.slice(2);\n};\n\nasync function fetchAllBets(contractId: string) {\n const all: any[] = [];\n let before: string | undefined;\n for (let i = 0; i < 50; i++) {\n let url =\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=${contractId}&limit=1000`;\n if (before) url += `&before=${before}`;\n const page: any[] = await fetch(url).then((r) => r.json());\n if (!page.length) break;\n all.push(...page);\n before = page[page.length - 1].id;\n if (page.length < 1000) break;\n }\n return all;\n}\n\n// The five most volatile names pre-announcement. Order is display order.\nconst FEATURED_ROCKY = [\n { name: \"Ricardo Pepi\" },\n { name: \"Alejandro Zendejas\" },\n { name: \"Diego Luna\" },\n { name: \"Tanner Tessmann\" },\n { name: \"Aidan Morris\" },\n];\n\nfunction sparkline(\n trace: Array<[number, number]>,\n color: string,\n w = 280,\n h = 44,\n) {\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const tMin = trace[0][0], tMax = trace[trace.length - 1][0];\n const dur = (tMax - tMin) || 1;\n const pts = trace.map(([t, p]) =>\n `${((t - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1)},${(h - p * h).toFixed(1)}`\n ).join(\" \");\n // Build the area-fill polygon: poly + close to bottom corners\n const lastX = ((tMax - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1);\n const areaPts = `0,${h} ${pts} ${lastX},${h}`;\n return ``;\n}\n\napp.get(\"/\", async (c) => {\n const [market, bets]: [any, any[]] = await Promise.all([\n fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${MARKET_ID}`).then((r) =>\n r.json()\n ),\n fetchAllBets(MARKET_ID),\n ]);\n\n const preBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime < CUTOFF_MS);\n const postBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime >= CUTOFF_MS);\n\n // Per-answer pre-announcement probability = latest probAfter before cutoff.\n const preProb: Record = {};\n // Per-answer full pre-cutoff trace for sparklines.\n const traces: Record> = {};\n for (\n const b of preBets.slice().sort((a, b) => a.createdTime - b.createdTime)\n ) {\n if (b.answerId && typeof b.probAfter === \"number\") {\n preProb[b.answerId] = b.probAfter;\n (traces[b.answerId] ||= []).push([b.createdTime, b.probAfter]);\n }\n }\n\n const snap = market.answers.map((a: any) => ({\n text: a.text,\n id: a.id,\n pre: preProb[a.id] ?? null,\n resolution: a.resolution,\n createdTime: a.createdTime,\n }));\n\n const yes = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"YES\");\n const no = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"NO\");\n\n const yesRanked = [...yes].sort((a, b) => (b.pre ?? -1) - (a.pre ?? -1));\n const noRanked = [...no].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n );\n\n const yesWithPrice = yesRanked.filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null);\n const yesMin = yesWithPrice[yesWithPrice.length - 1];\n const yesMax = yesWithPrice[0];\n\n // Answers added by month\n const byMonth: Record = {};\n for (const a of market.answers) {\n if (!a.createdTime) continue;\n const ym = new Date(a.createdTime).toISOString().slice(0, 7);\n byMonth[ym] = (byMonth[ym] || 0) + 1;\n }\n const months = Object.entries(byMonth).sort(([a], [b]) =>\n a.localeCompare(b)\n );\n const maxMonth = Math.max(...months.map(([, v]) => v as number));\n\n const days = Math.round(\n (market.resolutionTime - market.createdTime) / 86400000,\n );\n\n const monthRows = months.map(([ym, n]) => `\n

${monthName(ym)}

${n}

\n `).join(\"\");\n\n // Pre-announcement leaderboard (top 30 by pre-prob, color YES vs NO)\n const ranked = [...snap].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n ).slice(0, 30);\n const rankRows = ranked.map((s: any) => {\n const color = s.resolution === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#888\";\n return `\n

${s.text}

${(s.pre * 100).toFixed(0)}%

\n `;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n // Rocky journeys section\n const rockyRows = FEATURED_ROCKY.map((f) => {\n const ans = market.answers.find((a: any) => a.text === f.name);\n if (!ans) return \"\";\n const trace = traces[ans.id] || [];\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const probs = trace.map((t) => t[1]);\n const mn = Math.min(...probs);\n const mx = Math.max(...probs);\n const final = ans.resolution;\n const color = final === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#666\";\n const statusLabel = final === \"YES\" ? \"In\" : \"Cut\";\n return `\n

${f.name}

${statusLabel}

${sparkline(trace, color)}

low ${(mn * 100).toFixed(0)}% · high ${\n (mx * 100).toFixed(0)\n }% · ${trace.length} bets pre-announcement

`;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n return c.html(`\n\n\n\n\nUSMNT 2026: the market picked 25 of 26\n\n\n\n\n\n

USMNT World Cup 2026 / Manifold Markets

The market picked 25 of 26.

Two years of betting on Pochettino's roster, frozen two days before the announcement.

\n\n

Volume

M$${\n fmt(Math.round(market.volume))\n }

mana traded

Bettors

${market.uniqueBettorCount}

unique participants

Days open

${days}

Mar '24 → Jun '26

Pre/post bets

${preBets.length}/${postBets.length}

before/after announcement

\n\n

The pre-announcement leaderboard

Red made the squad. Grey didn't.

\n\n

${rankRows}

Top 30 answers by pre-May-26 probability. The top 25 are all eventual YESes, save Chris Brady, who wasn't even an answer yet.

\n\n

Rocky journeys

The five most volatile names, every pre-announcement bet.

\n\n

${rockyRows}

Each sparkline traces a player's pre-May-26 probability over every bet placed on them. Dashed line is the 50% mark.

\n\n

Answers added per month

${monthRows}

41 names seeded at open; 29 more over two years.

\n\n

The YES band

${yesMin ? Math.round((yesMin.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}–${yesMax ? Math.round((yesMax.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}%

lowest → highest pre-announcement pick

Bets in 24h

${postBets.length}

after the list dropped

Most bets, one trader

117

on this single market

Biggest grind

M$727

profit on M$17,629 staked (4%)

\n\n \n

\n\n`);\n});\n\nexport default app.fetch;\n","deleted",false,"label",[35],{"_33":34,"_13":35,"_36":37,"_38":-5,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":57,"_17":47,"_48":49,"_50":51,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_58":59,"_18":60},["D",1783020307825],"children",[],[35],"61d8c358-a414-4bc4-92ee-f129a9aac78c",["D",1780891243747],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","USMNT 2026 Manifold roster market — post-resolution recap","imageUrl","userId","9319c175-2593-4f88-ba21-04f2ef7b1c28","pinnedFileId","pinPreview","pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","d663a026-6449-42f6-9156-1d4a2d64d38c","tursoName","tursoHostname","tursoMeasuredAt","pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_11":12,"_116":112},"org",{"_11":12,"_109":110,"_111":112,"_71":72,"_113":114,"_115":53},"branch",{"_17":42,"_13":16,"_33":40,"_101":61,"_102":-5,"_103":-5,"_104":-5,"_105":-5,"_106":-5,"_107":14,"_108":12},"isOwned","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","displayName","Charlie","avatar","https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/3e904faa-3764-4629-c475-f561a49b0000/square512?exp=1789534799&sig=84fd3b9bd0306e7b3250b5958bebdf15bd4b124cb792456b57c457068a44b463","tier","pro","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","adoptOrgId",{"_33":61,"_13":14,"_45":150,"_63":-5,"_64":53,"_65":66,"_67":66,"_68":69,"_70":-5,"_71":72,"_73":37,"_74":44,"_75":-5,"_76":-5,"_77":78,"_79":80,"_81":-5,"_82":-5,"_83":-5,"_84":-5,"_85":86,"_87":86,"_88":89,"_90":89,"_91":89,"_92":86,"_93":86,"_94":151,"_96":152,"_98":153,"_100":53},[147],"files",[147],"counts",{"_137":78,"_138":139,"_140":78,"_31":141,"_142":143},[135],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_33":34,"_13":35,"_36":37,"_38":-5,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_17":47,"_48":49,"_50":51,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":136},[35],"pulls","branches",1,"forks",{"_144":78,"_146":78},"connections",{"_144":78,"_145":78},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_33":34,"_13":35,"_36":37,"_38":-5,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":57,"_17":47,"_48":49,"_50":51,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_58":148,"_18":149},[],[35],["D",1780891243747],{"_11":12,"_116":112},{"_11":12,"_109":110,"_111":112,"_71":72,"_113":114,"_115":53},{"_17":42,"_13":16,"_33":40,"_101":61,"_102":-5,"_103":-5,"_104":-5,"_105":-5,"_106":-5,"_107":14,"_108":12},"ctx",{"_94":-5,"_132":187,"_188":189,"_190":191,"_192":53,"_193":53,"_194":53,"_195":44,"_196":-5,"_197":-7,"_198":-7,"_199":78,"_200":53,"_201":53,"_202":-5,"_203":53,"_204":53,"_205":53,"_206":-5},"ENV",{"_158":159,"_160":161,"_162":16,"_163":164,"_165":166,"_167":168,"_169":170,"_171":172,"_173":174,"_175":176,"_177":178,"_179":180,"_181":182,"_183":184,"_185":186},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Code