${monthName(ym)}

${n}

\n `).join(\"\");\n\n // Pre-announcement leaderboard (top 30 by pre-prob, color YES vs NO)\n const ranked = [...snap].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n ).slice(0, 30);\n const rankRows = ranked.map((s: any) => {\n const color = s.resolution === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#888\";\n return `\n

${s.text}

${(s.pre * 100).toFixed(0)}%

\n `;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n // Rocky journeys section\n const rockyRows = FEATURED_ROCKY.map((f) => {\n const ans = market.answers.find((a: any) => a.text === f.name);\n if (!ans) return \"\";\n const trace = traces[ans.id] || [];\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const probs = trace.map((t) => t[1]);\n const mn = Math.min(...probs);\n const mx = Math.max(...probs);\n const final = ans.resolution;\n const color = final === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#666\";\n const statusLabel = final === \"YES\" ? \"In\" : \"Cut\";\n return `\n

${f.name}

${statusLabel}

${sparkline(trace, color)}

low ${(mn * 100).toFixed(0)}% · high ${\n (mx * 100).toFixed(0)\n }% · ${trace.length} bets pre-announcement

`;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n return c.html(`\n\n\n\n\nUSMNT 2026: the market picked 25 of 26\n\n\n\n\n\n

USMNT World Cup 2026 / Manifold Markets

The market picked 25 of 26.

Two years of betting on Pochettino's roster, frozen two days before the announcement.

\n\n

Volume

M$${\n fmt(Math.round(market.volume))\n }

mana traded

Bettors

${market.uniqueBettorCount}

unique participants

Days open

${days}

Mar '24 → Jun '26

Pre/post bets

${preBets.length}/${postBets.length}

before/after announcement

\n\n

The pre-announcement leaderboard

Red made the squad. Grey didn't.

\n\n

${rankRows}

Top 30 answers by pre-May-26 probability. The top 25 are all eventual YESes, save Chris Brady, who wasn't even an answer yet.

\n\n

Rocky journeys

The five most volatile names, every pre-announcement bet.

\n\n

${rockyRows}

Each sparkline traces a player's pre-May-26 probability over every bet placed on them. Dashed line is the 50% mark.

\n\n

Answers added per month

${monthRows}

41 names seeded at open; 29 more over two years.

\n\n

The YES band

${yesMin ? Math.round((yesMin.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}–${yesMax ? Math.round((yesMax.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}%

lowest → highest pre-announcement pick

Bets in 24h

${postBets.length}

after the list dropped

Most bets, one trader

117

on this single market

Biggest grind

M$727

profit on M$17,629 staked (4%)

\n\n \n

\n\n`);\n});\n\nexport default app.fetch;\n","deleted","label",[110],"pulls","branches",1,"forks","envVars",{"_133":42,"_135":42},"connections",{"_133":42,"_134":42},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_18":109,"_20":110,"_111":36,"_112":-5,"_113":68,"_114":66,"_115":38,"_22":137,"_65":117,"_118":119,"_120":121,"_122":26,"_123":-5,"_138":139,"_86":140},["D",1783020307825],"children",[],[110],["D",1780891243747],{"_16":17,"_84":80},{"_16":17,"_77":78,"_79":80,"_33":34,"_81":82,"_83":26},{"_65":66,"_20":67,"_18":68,"_69":19,"_70":-5,"_71":-5,"_72":-5,"_73":-5,"_74":-5,"_75":21,"_76":17},"ctx",{"_58":-5,"_105":178,"_179":180,"_181":182,"_183":26,"_184":26,"_185":26,"_186":38,"_187":-5,"_188":-7,"_189":-7,"_190":42,"_191":26,"_192":26,"_193":-5,"_194":26,"_195":26,"_196":26,"_197":-5},"ENV",{"_149":150,"_151":152,"_153":67,"_154":155,"_156":157,"_158":159,"_160":161,"_162":163,"_164":165,"_166":167,"_168":169,"_170":171,"_172":173,"_174":175,"_176":177},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

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