• Full RESTful API with 8 endpoints
• New calibration analysis with 10% confidence buckets (centered: 0-10%, 10-20%, etc.)
• Enhanced performance analysis including calibration data
• OpenAPI 3.0 specification compatible with Custom GPTs
• Live API endpoint: https://dcm31--019899c30691716293d39932f5c6be80.web.val.run/api/

1. openapi.yaml - OpenAI Custom GPT compatible spec (no oneOf/anyOf/allOf)
2. CUSTOM_GPT_INSTRUCTIONS.md - Complete GPT behavior instructions
3. CUSTOM_GPT_SETUP_GUIDE.md - Step-by-step setup guide

• POST /quick-goal - Calculate optimal goal + create Fatebook prediction
• POST /fatebook-goals/{id}/resolve - Mark goals complete/incomplete
• POST /fatebook-goals/{id}/forecast - Update confidence during day
• GET /calibration-analysis - View prediction accuracy by confidence buckets

1. Morning: Ask GPT to set optimal goal based on probability assessments
2. During day: Optionally update confidence levels
3. Evening: Report completion status to resolve prediction
4. Weekly: Review calibration analysis for improvement insights

1. Go to https://chatgpt.com/create
2. Use instructions from CUSTOM_GPT_INSTRUCTIONS.md
3. Import schema from: https://dcm31--019899c30691716293d39932f5c6be80.web.val.run/api/openapi.yaml
4. No authentication needed (API key passed in requests)

1. Get Fatebook API key from https://fatebook.io/api-setup
2. Start conversation: "Help me set today's work goal"
3. Provide API key when prompted
4. Give probability assessments for different goal amounts

• 10 confidence buckets: 0-10%, 10-20%, 20-30%, ..., 90-100%
• Centered around increments: Expected rates use bucket center points (5%, 15%, 25%, etc.)
• Only first forecasts: Clean analysis using initial EVGS predictions
• Calibration error tracking: Shows over/under-confidence patterns

{
  "buckets": [
    {
      "bucket": "70-80%",
      "centerPoint": 0.75,
      "predictions": 4,
      "actualSuccessRate": 0.75,
      "expectedSuccessRate": 0.75,
      "calibrationError": 0
    }
  ],
  "overallCalibrationScore": 0.14,
  "brierScore": 0.21,
  "totalPredictions": 37,
  "perfectCalibration": false
}

All endpoints tested with your actual Fatebook API key:

• ✅ Goal calculation and creation working
• ✅ Forecast updates working
• ✅ Goal resolution working
• ✅ Calibration analysis with corrected buckets working
• ✅ 37 historical predictions analyzed

All files are in the api-integration branch:

• /openapi.yaml - Custom GPT compatible OpenAPI spec
• /CUSTOM_GPT_INSTRUCTIONS.md - GPT behavior instructions
• /CUSTOM_GPT_SETUP_GUIDE.md - Setup walkthrough
• /utils/api.ts - Enhanced API service with calibration analysis
• /index.ts - Main server with all endpoints

Your EVGS system now has a complete Custom GPT integration that will:

1. Optimize daily goals using expected value theory
2. Track predictions automatically in Fatebook
3. Analyze calibration across confidence levels
4. Provide personalized recommendations for improvement

The Custom GPT will act as your daily goal-setting coach, helping you develop better metacognitive skills about your own capabilities and uncertainty quantification.

Next step: Set up the Custom GPT using the provided files and start your daily goal optimization workflow!