\n Subscribe to Charlie's brain\n

\n {message && (\n

\n {message}\n

\n )}\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction App() {\n const [events, setEvents] = useState([]);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n const [activeYear, setActiveYear] = useState(null);\n const [darkMode, setDarkMode] = useState(false);\n const [progress, setProgress] = useState(null);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n // Check for system dark mode preference\n const mediaQuery = window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: dark)');\n setDarkMode(mediaQuery.matches);\n \n const handleThemeChange = (e: MediaQueryListEvent) => {\n setDarkMode(e.matches);\n };\n \n mediaQuery.addEventListener('change', handleThemeChange);\n return () => mediaQuery.removeEventListener('change', handleThemeChange);\n }, []);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n loadTimelineEvents();\n }, []);\n\n const loadTimelineEvents = async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/timeline-events');\n \n if (!response.ok) {\n throw new Error(`HTTP ${response.status}: ${response.statusText}`);\n }\n \n const reader = response.body?.getReader();\n if (!reader) {\n throw new Error('No response body reader available');\n }\n \n const decoder = new TextDecoder();\n let buffer = '';\n \n while (true) {\n const { done, value } = await reader.read();\n if (done) break;\n \n buffer += decoder.decode(value, { stream: true });\n const lines = buffer.split('\\n');\n buffer = lines.pop() || '';\n \n for (const line of lines) {\n if (line.startsWith('data: ')) {\n try {\n const data = JSON.parse(line.slice(6));\n \n if (data.type === 'progress') {\n setProgress(data.progress);\n } else if (data.type === 'complete') {\n setEvents(data.events);\n setLoading(false);\n setProgress(null);\n return;\n } else if (data.type === 'error') {\n throw new Error(data.error);\n }\n } catch (parseError) {\n console.error('Error parsing SSE data:', parseError);\n }\n }\n }\n }\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'Failed to load timeline');\n setLoading(false);\n setProgress(null);\n }\n };\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'short',\n day: 'numeric'\n });\n };\n\n const formatYear = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).getFullYear();\n };\n\n const formatMonth = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'long'\n });\n };\n\n const scrollToYear = (year: number) => {\n const element = document.getElementById(`year-${year}`);\n if (element) {\n element.scrollIntoView({ behavior: 'smooth', block: 'center' });\n setActiveYear(year);\n }\n };\n\n const getProgressPercentage = () => {\n if (!progress || progress.total === 0) return 0;\n return Math.round((progress.current / progress.total) * 100);\n };\n\n if (loading) {\n return (\n

\n {progress ? (\n

{progress.phase.replace('-', ' ').toUpperCase()}

{progress.message}

\n {progress.current}/{progress.total} ({getProgressPercentage()}%)\n

\n ) : (\n

Loading timeline...

\n )}\n

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n // Sort events by expected date\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n \n // Get unique years for navigation\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map(event => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n // Add today's date to events\n const today = Date.now();\n const todayEvent = {\n id: 'today',\n statement: 'Today',\n originalQuestion: 'Today',\n expectedDate: today,\n confidence: 100,\n volume: 0,\n url: '#',\n creator: '',\n emojis: '📅'\n };\n\n // Insert today into the sorted events\n const eventsWithToday = [...sortedEvents];\n let todayInserted = false;\n for (let i = 0; i < eventsWithToday.length; i++) {\n if (eventsWithToday[i].expectedDate > today) {\n eventsWithToday.splice(i, 0, todayEvent);\n todayInserted = true;\n break;\n }\n }\n if (!todayInserted) {\n eventsWithToday.push(todayEvent);\n }\n\n return (\n

\n {/* Scrollable Year Navigation */}\n

Years

\n {years.map(year => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{' '}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {' '}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{' '}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n \n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {month}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n {/* Emojis positioned to the left of timeline for non-mobile */}\n {event.emojis && (\n
\n {event.emojis}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n \n {isTodayEvent ? 'TODAY' : formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n {/* Emojis next to date on mobile */}\n {event.emojis && {event.emojis}}\n \n
\n \n
\n {isTodayEvent ? (\n
\n Today\n
\n ) : (\n \n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n )}\n
\n
\n

\n\n {/* OpenMoji attribution at bottom */}\n \n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n // Handle subscription endpoint\n if (url.pathname === '/api/subscribe' && request.method === 'POST') {\n try {\n const { blob } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\");\n const body = await request.json();\n const email = body.email?.trim();\n \n if (!email) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Email is required' }), {\n status: 400,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Simple email validation\n const emailRegex = /^[^\\s@]+@[^\\s@]+\\.[^\\s@]+$/;\n if (!emailRegex.test(email)) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Invalid email format' }), {\n status: 400,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Get existing subscribers\n let subscribers: string[] = [];\n try {\n const existingData = await blob.getJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers\");\n if (Array.isArray(existingData)) {\n subscribers = existingData;\n }\n } catch (error) {\n // File doesn't exist yet, that's fine\n }\n \n // Check if email already exists\n if (subscribers.includes(email.toLowerCase())) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Email already subscribed' }), {\n status: 400,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Add new subscriber with timestamp\n const newSubscriber = {\n email: email.toLowerCase(),\n subscribedAt: new Date().toISOString()\n };\n \n // Get detailed subscribers list\n let detailedSubscribers: any[] = [];\n try {\n const existingDetailed = await blob.getJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers-detailed\");\n if (Array.isArray(existingDetailed)) {\n detailedSubscribers = existingDetailed;\n }\n } catch (error) {\n // File doesn't exist yet, that's fine\n }\n \n // Add to both lists\n subscribers.push(email.toLowerCase());\n detailedSubscribers.push(newSubscriber);\n \n // Save both versions\n await blob.setJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers\", subscribers);\n await blob.setJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers-detailed\", detailedSubscribers);\n \n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ success: true, message: 'Subscribed successfully!' }), {\n status: 200,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n \n } catch (error) {\n console.error('Subscription error:', error);\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Internal server error' }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/timeline-events') {\n // Use Server-Sent Events for progress updates\n const stream = new ReadableStream({\n start(controller) {\n const encoder = new TextEncoder();\n \n const sendProgress = (progress: ProgressUpdate) => {\n const data = `data: ${JSON.stringify({ type: 'progress', progress })}\\n\\n`;\n controller.enqueue(encoder.encode(data));\n };\n \n const sendComplete = (events: TimelineEvent[]) => {\n const data = `data: ${JSON.stringify({ type: 'complete', events })}\\n\\n`;\n controller.enqueue(encoder.encode(data));\n controller.close();\n };\n \n const sendError = (error: string) => {\n const data = `data: ${JSON.stringify({ type: 'error', error })}\\n\\n`;\n controller.enqueue(encoder.encode(data));\n controller.close();\n };\n \n // Start the async process\n fetchTimelineEvents(sendProgress)\n .then(sendComplete)\n .catch((error) => sendError(error.message));\n }\n });\n \n return new Response(stream, {\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'text/event-stream',\n 'Cache-Control': 'no-cache',\n 'Connection': 'keep-alive',\n 'Access-Control-Allow-Origin': '*',\n 'Access-Control-Allow-Headers': 'Content-Type'\n }\n });\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}",[],[184],{"_103":192,"_95":193,"_153":194,"_155":-5,"_156":138,"_157":195,"_159":160,"_105":196,"_100":197,"_162":163,"_164":198,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_168":199,"_98":200},"809548ec-69cc-11f0-917a-0224a6c84d84","logic.ts","460f9dcc-69bc-11f0-ab7f-0224a6c84d84",17,["D",1753498749989],2,"// Timeline logic and server functions\nimport { getCachedConversion, setCachedConversion, getCachedEmojis, setCachedEmojis } from \"./cache.ts\";\n\n// Smart internal conversion function with proper capitalization and punctuation\nexport function convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBePattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const willBeMatch = question.match(willBePattern);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i;\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(willHappenPattern);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n const [, subject] = willHappenMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X Y?\" -> \"X will Y\" (general case)\n const generalWillPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|fix|repair|break|damage|build|destroy|create|delete).+)\\??$/i;\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(generalWillPattern);\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearPattern = /^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const yearMatch = question.match(yearPattern);\n if (yearMatch) {\n const [, subject] = yearMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null; // Return null if no pattern matches\n}\n\n// Function to get emojis for a title using your texttoemojis API with caching and rate limiting\nasync function getEmojisForTitle(title: string, retryCount = 0): Promise {\n // Check cache first\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(title);\n if (cached !== null) {\n return cached;\n }\n \n try {\n const response = await fetch(`https://texttoemojis.val.run/api?text=${encodeURIComponent(title)}&count=3`);\n \n if (response.status === 429) {\n // Rate limited - implement exponential backoff\n const backoffTime = Math.min(1000 * Math.pow(2, retryCount), 60000); // Max 1 minute\n console.log(`Rate limited on emoji API, backing off for ${backoffTime}ms`);\n \n if (retryCount < 5) { // Max 5 retries\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, backoffTime));\n return getEmojisForTitle(title, retryCount + 1);\n } else {\n console.log(`Max retries reached for emoji API, skipping emojis for: ${title}`);\n return '';\n }\n }\n \n if (!response.ok) {\n console.error(`Emoji API error: ${response.status} ${response.statusText}`);\n return '';\n }\n \n const data = await response.json();\n const emojis = data.emojis || '';\n \n // Cache the result\n await setCachedEmojis(title, emojis);\n \n return emojis;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error('Error fetching emojis:', error);\n return '';\n }\n}\n\n// PERFECTED ALGORITHM - Helper functions\nfunction sum(arr: number[]): number {\n return arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n}\n\nfunction filterDefined(arr: (T | null | undefined)[]): T[] {\n return arr.filter((x): x is T => x != null);\n}\n\nfunction getAnswerProbability(contract: any, answerId: string): number {\n const answer = contract.answers.find((a: any) => a.id === answerId);\n return answer?.prob || 0;\n}\n\nfunction getInitialAnswerProbability(contract: any, answer: any): number {\n return answer.prob || 0;\n}\n\n// PERFECTED IMPLEMENTATION - Fixed logic for complex threshold markets like Nonogram\nexport function getExpectedDate(contract: any, initialOnly?: boolean): number {\n const { answers, isResolved } = contract;\n \n // Market type detection: Check if probabilities sum to ~1.0 (bucket-style) or are cumulative (threshold-style)\n const totalProb = answers.reduce((sum: number, a: any) => sum + (a.prob || 0), 0);\n const shouldAnswersSumToOne = Math.abs(totalProb - 1) < 0.1; // If sum ≈ 1.0, it's bucket-style\n \n // For threshold-style markets, filter out resolved NO answers (they have 0% probability)\n const activeAnswers = shouldAnswersSumToOne ? answers : answers.filter((a: any) => !a.resolution || a.resolution !== 'NO');\n \n const answerProbabilities = filterDefined(\n activeAnswers.map((a: any) =>\n initialOnly\n ? getInitialAnswerProbability(contract, a)\n : isResolved\n ? a.prob\n : getAnswerProbability(contract, a.id)\n )\n );\n \n const answerMidpoints = activeAnswers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n \n if (shouldAnswersSumToOne) {\n // Bucket-style: simple weighted average\n return sum(answerProbabilities.map((p, i) => p * answerMidpoints[i]));\n } else {\n // Threshold-style: calculate discrete probabilities\n const discreteProbs = [];\n \n // First period: probability of the first threshold\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[0]);\n \n // Middle periods: difference between adjacent thresholds\n for (let i = 1; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[i] - answerProbabilities[i - 1]);\n }\n \n // Final period: remaining probability\n const afterLastProb = 1 - answerProbabilities[answerProbabilities.length - 1];\n \n // Calculate expected value using discrete probabilities\n let expectedValue = 0;\n \n // Sum probability-weighted time periods\n for (let i = 0; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n expectedValue += answerMidpoints[i] * discreteProbs[i];\n }\n \n // Handle the \"after last threshold\" case\n if (afterLastProb > 0 && answerMidpoints.length > 0) {\n const lastMidpoint = answerMidpoints[answerMidpoints.length - 1];\n let timePeriod;\n \n // FIXED: Use ALL answers for time period calculation, not just active answers\n const allMidpoints = answers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n \n if (allMidpoints.length > 1) {\n // Use actual time period between last two thresholds from ALL answers\n const secondLastMidpoint = allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 2];\n timePeriod = allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 1] - secondLastMidpoint;\n } else {\n // For truly single threshold case, use a reasonable default\n timePeriod = 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 30 days default\n }\n \n const beyondLastMidpoint = lastMidpoint + timePeriod;\n expectedValue += beyondLastMidpoint * afterLastProb;\n }\n \n return expectedValue;\n }\n}\n\nexport interface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n emojis?: string;\n}\n\nexport interface ProgressUpdate {\n phase: string;\n current: number;\n total: number;\n message: string;\n}\n\nexport async function fetchTimelineEvents(onProgress?: (progress: ProgressUpdate) => void): Promise {\n // Phase 1: Fetch ALL date markets by making multiple requests\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'fetching', current: 0, total: 1, message: 'Fetching date markets from Manifold...' });\n \n const allMarkets = [];\n let offset = 0;\n const limit = 100;\n \n while (true) {\n const response = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=${limit}&offset=${offset}`);\n const markets = await response.json();\n \n if (markets.length === 0) {\n break;\n }\n \n allMarkets.push(...markets);\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'fetching', current: allMarkets.length, total: allMarkets.length, message: `Fetched ${allMarkets.length} date markets...` });\n \n // If we got fewer than the limit, we've reached the end\n if (markets.length < limit) {\n break;\n }\n \n offset += limit;\n \n // Add a small delay to be respectful to the API\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 100));\n }\n \n console.log(`Fetched ${allMarkets.length} total DATE markets`);\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('No DATE markets found');\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets and future dates only\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n console.log(`Found ${openMarkets.length} open DATE markets`);\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'filtering', current: openMarkets.length, total: openMarkets.length, message: `Found ${openMarkets.length} open markets` });\n \n // Phase 2: Process markets and calculate predictions\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'processing', current: 0, total: openMarkets.length, message: 'Processing markets...' });\n \n const marketsWithPredictions = [];\n \n for (let i = 0; i < openMarkets.length; i++) {\n const market = openMarkets[i];\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'processing', current: i + 1, total: openMarkets.length, message: `Processing market ${i + 1}/${openMarkets.length}: ${market.question.slice(0, 50)}...` });\n \n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n continue;\n }\n \n // Use the perfected algorithm with the contract containing fresh answers\n const contractWithAnswers = { ...market, answers };\n const weightedAverage = getExpectedDate(contractWithAnswers);\n \n if (!weightedAverage || isNaN(weightedAverage)) {\n continue;\n }\n \n // Filter out past dates\n if (weightedAverage < now) {\n console.log(`Skipping past date: ${new Date(weightedAverage).toISOString().split('T')[0]} for market: ${market.question}`);\n continue;\n }\n \n // Find top choice for confidence (from all answers)\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n marketsWithPredictions.push({\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate: weightedAverage,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url+ \"?r=Q2hhcmxpZQ\",\n creator: market.creatorName\n });\n \n // Small delay to be respectful\n if (i < openMarkets.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 50));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n }\n }\n \n console.log(`Valid future markets found: ${marketsWithPredictions.length}`);\n \n if (marketsWithPredictions.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('No valid future markets with predictions found');\n }\n \n // Phase 3: Convert questions to statements with caching\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'converting', current: 0, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: 'Converting questions to statements...' });\n \n const statements = [];\n const questionsNeedingAPI = [];\n const questionIndices = [];\n let cachedConversions = 0;\n \n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const question = marketsWithPredictions[i].question;\n \n // Check cache first\n const cachedConversion = await getCachedConversion(question);\n if (cachedConversion) {\n statements[i] = cachedConversion;\n cachedConversions++;\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'converting', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Converting: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (${cachedConversions} cached)` });\n continue;\n }\n \n // Try internal conversion\n const internalConversion = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n if (internalConversion) {\n statements[i] = internalConversion;\n // Cache the internal conversion\n await setCachedConversion(question, internalConversion);\n } else {\n questionsNeedingAPI.push(question);\n questionIndices.push(i);\n }\n \n onProgress?.({ phase: 'converting', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Converting: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (${cachedConversions} cached)` });\n }\n \n // Helper function to clean up API responses\n const cleanApiResponse = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n \n // For questions that couldn't be converted internally, use the API\n if (questionsNeedingAPI.length > 0) {\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'api-converting', current: 0, total: questionsNeedingAPI.length, message: 'Using API for complex conversions...' });\n \n for (let i = 0; i < questionsNeedingAPI.length; i++) {\n const originalIndex = questionIndices[i];\n const question = questionsNeedingAPI[i];\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'api-converting', current: i + 1, total: questionsNeedingAPI.length, message: `API converting: ${i + 1}/${questionsNeedingAPI.length}` });\n \n try {\n const singleResponse = await fetch('https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question })\n });\n \n if (singleResponse.ok) {\n const result = await singleResponse.json();\n const cleanedStatement = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanedStatement;\n // Cache the API conversion\n await setCachedConversion(question, cleanedStatement);\n } else {\n // Fallback: simple conversion\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanedFallback;\n // Cache the fallback\n await setCachedConversion(question, cleanedFallback);\n }\n \n // Rate limiting delay\n if (i < questionsNeedingAPI.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 1200));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question ${i}:`, err);\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanedFallback;\n // Cache the fallback\n await setCachedConversion(question, cleanedFallback);\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Phase 4: Get emojis for each statement with caching\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'emojis', current: 0, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: 'Adding emojis...' });\n \n const statementsWithEmojis = [];\n let emojiRateLimitHit = false;\n let cachedEmojis = 0;\n \n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const fallback = marketsWithPredictions[i].question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = fallback.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + fallback.slice(1).replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n const finalStatement = statements[i] || cleanedFallback;\n \n if (emojiRateLimitHit) {\n // Skip emoji fetching if we've hit rate limits, but still check cache\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(finalStatement);\n statementsWithEmojis[i] = { statement: finalStatement, emojis: cached || '' };\n if (cached) cachedEmojis++;\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'emojis', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Emojis: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (rate limited - ${cachedEmojis} cached)` });\n continue;\n }\n \n try {\n // Get emojis for the statement (this function handles caching internally)\n const cachedFirst = await getCachedEmojis(finalStatement);\n if (cachedFirst !== null) {\n cachedEmojis++;\n }\n \n const emojis = await getEmojisForTitle(finalStatement);\n statementsWithEmojis[i] = { statement: finalStatement, emojis };\n \n onProgress?.({ phase: 'emojis', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Adding emojis: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (${cachedEmojis} cached)` });\n \n // Rate limiting delay for emoji API - slower to be more respectful, but only if not cached\n if (i < marketsWithPredictions.length - 1 && cachedFirst === null) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 500));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error getting emojis for statement ${i}:`, err);\n statementsWithEmojis[i] = { statement: finalStatement, emojis: '' };\n \n // If we hit too many errors, assume rate limiting and stop trying\n if (err.message?.includes('429') || err.message?.includes('rate')) {\n emojiRateLimitHit = true;\n console.log('Rate limit detected, skipping remaining emoji requests');\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Phase 5: Combine the data\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'finalizing', current: 1, total: 1, message: 'Finalizing timeline...' });\n \n const timelineEvents: TimelineEvent[] = marketsWithPredictions.map((market, index) => {\n const statementData = statementsWithEmojis[index];\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n statement: statementData.statement,\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator,\n emojis: statementData.emojis\n };\n });\n \n return timelineEvents;\n}",[],[193],{"_103":202,"_95":99,"_153":203,"_155":-5,"_156":138,"_157":204,"_159":160,"_105":205,"_100":206,"_162":178,"_164":207,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_168":208,"_98":209},"2eda4f1c-69cb-11f0-afd5-0224a6c84d84","62b66cde-69c7-11f0-a84e-0224a6c84d84",16,["D",1753498183371],4,"---\ntitle: \"When\"\ndescription: \"A vertical emoji-marked timeline of Manifold date markets.\"\nimageUrl: \"https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public\"\nurl: \"https://when.val.run\"\nauthor: \"dcm31\"\ntags: \n---",[],[99],{"_103":211,"_95":212,"_153":213,"_155":-5,"_156":138,"_157":214,"_159":160,"_105":215,"_100":177,"_162":163,"_164":216,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_168":217,"_98":218},"ba5a444e-6ecf-11f0-827e-0224a6c84d84","styles.ts","ec8d2e30-69c6-11f0-9d22-0224a6c84d84",18,["D",1754049891206],"// Styles for the timeline application\nexport const css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n transition: background-color 0.3s ease, color 0.3s ease;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n /* Dark mode styles */\n .app-container.dark {\n background-color: #0f172a;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* Subscription Box Styles */\n .subscription-box {\n background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.03);\n border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 16px 20px;\n margin-bottom: 30px;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-box {\n background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);\n border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);\n }\n\n .subscription-content {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 12px;\n flex-wrap: wrap;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .subscription-text {\n font-size: 0.95em;\n color: #64748b;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-text {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .subscription-form {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n padding: 6px 12px;\n border: 1px solid #d1d5db;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n background: white;\n color: #374151;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n min-width: 160px;\n }\n\n .subscription-input:focus {\n outline: none;\n border-color: #000000;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #475569;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input:focus {\n border-color: #ffffff;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);\n }\n\n .subscription-input::placeholder {\n color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input::placeholder {\n color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .subscription-input:disabled {\n opacity: 0.6;\n cursor: not-allowed;\n }\n\n .subscription-button {\n padding: 6px 16px;\n background: #000000;\n color: white;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .subscription-button:hover:not(:disabled) {\n background: #374151;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-button {\n background: #ffffff;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-button:hover:not(:disabled) {\n background: #e5e7eb;\n }\n\n .subscription-button:disabled {\n cursor: not-allowed;\n opacity: 0.6;\n }\n\n .subscription-button.loading {\n cursor: wait;\n }\n\n .subscription-message {\n text-align: center;\n margin-top: 8px;\n padding: 4px 8px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .subscription-message.success {\n color: #059669;\n background: rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.2);\n }\n\n .subscription-message.error {\n color: #dc2626;\n background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.2);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-message.success {\n color: #34d399;\n background: rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.2);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-message.error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.2);\n }\n\n /* Scrollable Year Navigation */\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n max-height: 80vh;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #334155;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-title {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll {\n overflow-y: auto;\n flex: 1;\n scrollbar-width: thin;\n scrollbar-color: #cbd5e1 transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar {\n width: 4px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-track {\n background: transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #cbd5e1;\n border-radius: 2px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #475569;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #334155;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #000000;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header {\n border-bottom: 2px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header h1 {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header p {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #000000;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header a {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .byline a {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .footer {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n border-top: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n margin-top: 50px;\n }\n\n .dark .footer {\n border-top: 1px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .credits a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .credits a {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n padding: 50px 20px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n max-width: 1000px;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-wrapper {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* TIMELINE STYLING - BLACK THEME */\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n list-style: none;\n }\n\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n left: 0;\n width: 3px;\n height: 100%;\n background: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 120px;\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n /* Emoji positioning - left side for non-mobile - FIXED */\n .emojis-left {\n position: absolute;\n left: -100px;\n top: 0;\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.3em;\n line-height: 1.8;\n text-align: center;\n width: 80px;\n display: none;\n white-space: nowrap;\n overflow: hidden;\n }\n\n /* Show emojis on left for non-mobile (768px+) */\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-left {\n display: block;\n }\n }\n\n /* Mobile emoji positioning - next to date */\n .emojis-mobile {\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n margin-left: 8px;\n display: inline;\n white-space: nowrap;\n }\n\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-mobile {\n display: none;\n }\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n line-height: 0.9;\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #000000;\n top: 50%;\n left: -120px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 80px;\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event time {\n display: inline-block;\n }\n\n .today-date {\n color: #dc2626 !important;\n font-weight: 700 !important;\n }\n\n .dark .today-date {\n color: #fca5a5 !important;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .details {\n margin-top: 15px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .event-statement {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .today-marker .event-statement {\n color: #dc2626;\n font-weight: 700;\n }\n\n .dark .today-marker .event-statement {\n color: #fca5a5;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #000000;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator {\n color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator::before {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .month-separator {\n font-size: 1.4em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #374151;\n margin: 30px 0 20px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 30px;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator {\n color: #d1d5db;\n }\n\n .month-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 25px;\n height: 2px;\n background-color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator::before {\n background-color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .today-event {\n background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.05);\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 10px;\n margin: 20px 0;\n }\n\n .dark .today-event {\n background: rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.1);\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n text-align: center;\n padding: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-container {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #000000;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-spinner {\n border: 3px solid #334155;\n border-top: 3px solid #ffffff;\n }\n\n .progress-info {\n max-width: 500px;\n width: 100%;\n }\n\n .progress-phase {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n font-weight: 600;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n color: #1e293b;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-phase {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .progress-message {\n font-size: 0.9em;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n color: #64748b;\n word-break: break-word;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-message {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .progress-bar-container {\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .progress-bar {\n width: 100%;\n height: 8px;\n background-color: #e2e8f0;\n border-radius: 4px;\n overflow: hidden;\n margin-bottom: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-bar {\n background-color: #334155;\n }\n\n .progress-fill {\n height: 100%;\n background-color: #000000;\n transition: width 0.3s ease;\n border-radius: 4px;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-fill {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .progress-text {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-text {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n .dark .error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: #1f1f1f;\n border: 1px solid #374151;\n }\n\n /* Mobile responsive - improved */\n @media (max-width: 700px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 60px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 40px;\n left: -60px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n max-height: 70vh;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 15px;\n }\n\n .progress-info {\n max-width: 100%;\n }\n\n /* Subscription box mobile adjustments */\n .subscription-content {\n flex-direction: column;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .subscription-form {\n width: 100%;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n min-width: 140px;\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 200px;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n \n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 50px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 30px;\n left: -50px;\n }\n \n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n max-height: 60vh;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 10px;\n }\n\n .progress-phase {\n font-size: 1em;\n }\n\n .progress-message {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .footer {\n padding: 30px 15px;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n /* Subscription box smaller mobile adjustments */\n .subscription-box {\n padding: 12px 16px;\n }\n\n .subscription-text {\n font-size: 0.9em;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n padding: 5px 10px;\n }\n\n 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title:	When
description:	A vertical emoji-marked timeline of Manifold date markets.
imageUrl:	https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public
url:	https://when.val.run
author:	dcm31
tags: