No players in this category

';\n }\n \n return players.map(player => `\n

\n ${player.text}\n ${player.position ? `${player.position}` : ''}\n

\n ${formatProbability(player.probability)}\n

\n `).join('');\n };\n \n // Generate position counts summary\n const generatePositionCounts = (counts: any): string => {\n return `\n

GK: ${counts.GK}

D: ${counts.D}

M: ${counts.M}

F: ${counts.F}

\n ${counts.unknown > 0 ? `

Unknown: ${counts.unknown}

` : ''}\n

\n `;\n };\n \n // Generate debug info section\n const generateDebugSection = (): string => {\n if (!debug) return '';\n \n // Format comment texts\n const commentTextsList = debug.commentTexts.map((text, index) => \n `

Comment ${index + 1}

${text}

`\n ).join('');\n \n return `\n

Debug Information

Total comments: ${debug.commentCount}

Comments with positions: ${debug.commentsWithPositions.length}

${c}

Positions parsed:

${JSON.stringify(debug.positionsParsed, null, 2)}

\n \n

Comment Texts:

\n ${commentTextsList}\n

\n `;\n };\n \n // Generate stats about probability calibration\n const generateProbabilityStats = (): string => {\n const { total, ideal23, ideal26, adjustmentFactor23, adjustmentFactor26 } = probabilityStats;\n \n // Calculate the probabilities properly\n // total represents the sum of individual percentages (e.g., 0.26 + 0.35 + ...)\n // We need to convert this to a percentage (e.g., 26% + 35% + ...)\n const totalPercent = Math.round(total * 100);\n \n // The ideal values should be calculated in the same units\n // If the roster is 26 players, each at 100%, then the ideal is 2600%\n const idealPercent26 = ideal26 * 100;\n const idealPercent23 = ideal23 * 100;\n \n // Calculate the difference in percentage points\n const diffPercent26 = totalPercent - idealPercent26;\n const diffPercent23 = totalPercent - idealPercent23;\n \n // Calculate the adjustment factors\n const adjustFactor26 = idealPercent26 / totalPercent;\n const adjustFactor23 = idealPercent23 / totalPercent;\n \n // Explanation of the probability calculations\n const probabilityExplanation = `\n

How is market calibration calculated?

The sum of all player probabilities is currently ${totalPercent}%.

For a 26-man roster, the ideal sum would be exactly ${idealPercent26}%, since exactly 26 players will make the roster.

For a 23-man roster, the ideal sum would be exactly ${idealPercent23}%.

\n \n

What's currently happening with this market?

For a 26-man roster, users would need to knock a combined ${diffPercent26}% off of the current probabilities.

For a 23-man roster, users would need to knock a combined ${diffPercent23}% off of the current probabilities.

\n \n

How could this be fixed?

To calibrate the market for a 26-man roster, each player's probability would need to be multiplied by ${formatNumber(adjustFactor26)}.

To calibrate for a 23-man roster, each probability would need to be multiplied by ${formatNumber(adjustFactor23)}.

\n \n

Curious about the final roster size? What will be the roster size for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

\n `;\n \n let marketCalibrationText = '';\n if (totalPercent > idealPercent26) {\n marketCalibrationText = `\n

The market is overestimating player chances.

Users would need to reduce probabilities by a total of ${diffPercent26}% for a 26-man roster, or ${diffPercent23}% for a 23-man roster.

\n `;\n } else if (totalPercent < idealPercent23) {\n marketCalibrationText = `\n

The market is underestimating player chances.

Users would need to increase probabilities by a total of ${-diffPercent23}% for a 23-man roster.

\n `;\n } else {\n marketCalibrationText = `\n

The market is well calibrated for a roster size between 23 and 26 players.

\n `;\n }\n \n return `\n

Market Probability Statistics

Sum of all player probabilities: ${totalPercent}%

Ideal sum for 23-man roster: ${idealPercent23}%

Ideal sum for 26-man roster: ${idealPercent26}%

\n \n

\n ${marketCalibrationText}\n ${probabilityExplanation}\n

Note: Data is loaded when the page is opened. To see updated probabilities after placing bets, please refresh the page.

\n Seems wrong? Correct the market here ↗\n

\n `;\n };\n \n // Generate FAQ section\n const generateFaqSection = (): string => {\n return `\n

Frequently Asked Questions

\n \n

What is this?

This is Charlie's attempt to make his USMNT World Cup Roster Prediction Market a thing.

\n \n

Well, is the USMNTWCRPM a thing?

As of writing this, not really. It has only received about $12USD in trades. And yet, it's still the most rigorous attempt that I know of to quantify who will be on this historic roster.

\n \n

Betting?? Isn't that a scam?

Honestly yes, especially with sportsbooks. However, this prediction market is hosted on Manifold Markets, which uses play internet money that you can't cash out. So it's more like gambling with Reddit karma. As of writing this, you can move the percentages significantly just by using the \"Mana\" you get by signing up. Moreover, while sportsbooks set unfavorable odds to take your money and restrict your account if you're actually good at predicting, prediction markets operate simply as a intermediate between users. There's no \"House\" conspiring against you.

\n \n

Seems sus.

That's fine! Prediction markets actually have two types of customers. 1: The degenerates who bet on them and 2. The casuals who get information from the results of the bets. You don't have to bet on events to get value out of them. Just sit back and watch Sebastian Berhalter overtake Pulisic as the brightest star in the USMNT Roster pool.

\n \n

Will the roster be 23 or 26 players?

FIFA expanded rosters to 26 players for the 2022 World Cup, up from the traditional 23. While no official announcement has been made for 2026 yet, you can see what the market thinks: What will be the roster size for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

\n \n

Ok I'm warming up to the idea. Do you have other markets?

I'm glad you asked. I have a MLS Newcomer market here: [MLS Rumor Mill] What newcomers will make an appearance for a Major League Soccer team in 2025?

There's also Who will be the next Ballon d'Or winner to play in MLS?

\n \n

Tell me how you really feel.

I think most online communities would benefit if at least some percentage of their members were prediction market-pilled.

\n \n

Why?

Wild speculation is objectively entertaining, but at some point it would be nice if we could actually have a place where we could more formally evaluate who actually knows what they're talking about. Prediction markets solve this by forcing folks to put their (fake in this case) money where their mouth is.

\n \n

Why did you write this FAQ?

The average internet user is extremely and justifiable jaded about anything that sounds vaguely like gambling or crypto, myself included. This is a small attempt to humbly submit that there is a tiny corner of the internet where the whole \"gambling + weird fake money\" degeneracy thing can actually have positive externalities.

\n `;\n };\n \n // Format comment text (convert newlines to
tags)\n const formatCommentText = (text: string): string => {\n if (!text) return '';\n \n // Replace URLs with actual links\n const urlRegex = /(https?:\\/\\/[^\\s]+)/g;\n const textWithLinks = text.replace(urlRegex, '$1');\n \n // Convert newlines to
tags\n return textWithLinks.replace(/\\n/g, '
');\n };\n \n // Generate comments section\n const generateCommentsSection = (): string => {\n if (!comments || !Array.isArray(comments) || !comments.length) {\n return `\n

No comments available for this market.

\n `;\n }\n \n const commentsList = comments.map(comment => `\n

${comment.userUsername || comment.userName || 'Anonymous'}

${formatDate(comment.createdTime || Date.now())}

${formatCommentText(comment.text || '')}

\n `).join('');\n \n return `\n

Market Comments

\n \n

\n ${commentsList}\n

\n Add a comment\n

\n `;\n };\n \n // Current date for \"last updated\" timestamp\n const currentDate = new Date().toLocaleString();\n \n return `\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n USMNT 2026 World Cup Roster Projections | Player Probabilities\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n

USMNT WORLD CUP ROSTER PROJECTIONS

\n Based on ${marketQuestion} from Manifold Markets\n

Last updated: ${currentDate}

Player positions: GK = Goalkeeper, D = Defender, M = Midfielder, F = Forward

\n \n

Projected Rosters

\n \n

Projected 23-Man Roster

\n ${generatePlayerList(projected23)}\n \n

\n ${generatePositionCounts(positionCounts23)}\n

\n Seems wrong? Correct the market here ↗\n

\n \n

Projected 26-Man Roster

\n ${generatePlayerList(projected26)}\n \n

\n ${generatePositionCounts(positionCounts26)}\n

\n View the market ↗\n

\n \n

All Players by Probability

Likely (70%+)

\n ${generatePlayerList(likely)}\n \n

\n Where do these come from? ↗\n

\n \n

On the Bubble (40-70%)

\n ${generatePlayerList(onTheBubble)}\n \n

\n My name is Diego Luna and I disagree ↗\n

\n \n

Unlikely (<40%)

\n ${generatePlayerList(unlikely)}\n \n

\n Just approved Lucho Acosta's citizenship? Bet him up (with fake internet money) ↗\n

\n \n

\n ${generateCommentsSection()}\n

\n \n

\n ${generateProbabilityStats()}\n

\n \n ${generateFaqSection()}\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n `;\n}\n",[],[184,200],[184],{"_102":210,"_95":211,"_155":115,"_157":-5,"_158":140,"_159":212,"_161":117,"_104":213,"_99":32,"_163":214,"_165":215,"_166":22,"_167":216,"_168":217,"_98":218},"6bef5698-2693-11f0-9777-569c3dd06744","index.ts",3,["D",1746107506129],"http","// Entry point for the USMNT World Cup Roster Tracker\nimport { Hono } from \"npm:hono\";\nimport { serveStatic } from \"npm:hono/middleware\";\nimport { parseProject } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/utils@85-main/index.ts\";\nimport { fetchPlayerData } from \"./services/manifold-api.ts\";\nimport { styleSheet } from \"./ui/styles.ts\";\nimport { generateHtml } from \"./ui/template.ts\";\n\n// Create a new Hono app\nconst app = new Hono();\n\n// Unwrap Hono errors to see original error details\napp.onError((err, c) => {\n console.error(\"Application error:\", err);\n throw err;\n});\n\n// Main route handler\napp.get(\"/\", async (c) => {\n try {\n // Fetch player data from Manifold\n const playerData = await fetchPlayerData();\n \n if (!playerData) {\n return c.text(\"Unable to fetch player data\", 500);\n }\n \n // Generate HTML with the player data\n const html = generateHtml(playerData);\n\n return c.html(html);\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error handling request:\", error);\n return c.text(`An error occurred: ${error.message}`, 500);\n }\n});\n\n// Add a catch-all route for debugging\napp.all(\"*\", (c) => {\n console.log(\"404 for path:\", c.req.path);\n return c.text(`Not found: ${c.req.path}`, 404);\n});\n\n// Export the fetch handler\nexport default app.fetch;\n","usmnt-wc-roster",[],[211],{"_102":220,"_95":221,"_155":222,"_157":-5,"_158":140,"_159":139,"_161":117,"_104":223,"_99":212,"_163":224,"_165":225,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_168":226,"_98":227},"01272f20-3034-11f0-82c1-569c3dd06744","moi.md","864cffa0-26b0-11f0-b235-569c3dd06744",["D",1747166036417],"file","---\ntitle: \"usmnt_world_cup_roster_tracker\"\ndescription: \"US Men's 2026 World Cup roster probability tracker\"\nimageUrl: \"https://dcm31--316ac864ae3647a9ae12e7f1664969de.web.val.run/image/image_1747165456061_USMNT%20World%20Cup%20Roster%20Projections.png\"\nurl: \"https://dcm31--6bef57a6269311f09777569c3dd06744.web.val.run/\"\nauthor: \"dcm31\"\ntags: [\"val-town\"]\ntabs: [\"Soccer\"]\n---\n\n## About\n\nUS Men's 2026 World Cup roster probability tracker\n\n## HTTP Endpoint\n\nThis val is accessible via the following URL:\n\n`https://dcm31--6bef57a6269311f09777569c3dd06744.web.val.run`\n\n## Usage\n\n```typescript\n// Import this val\nimport { usmnt_world_cup_roster_tracker } from \"https://esm.town/v//usmnt_world_cup_roster_tracker\";\n\n// Example usage\n// ...\n```\n\n## Notes\n\n- Created: 2025-05-01\n- Last updated: 2025-05-01\n- Type: script\n- Privacy: public",[],[221],"files",[152,170,182,188,198,209,219],"counts",{"_232":32,"_233":234,"_235":32,"_236":237},"pulls","branches",1,"forks","envVars",{"_238":32,"_239":32},"count","emptyCount","contents",[242,245,248,251],{"_102":153,"_95":154,"_155":156,"_157":-5,"_158":140,"_159":160,"_161":117,"_104":243,"_99":32,"_163":164,"_165":-5,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_98":244},["D",1746107514629],[154],{"_102":183,"_95":184,"_155":185,"_157":-5,"_158":140,"_159":176,"_161":117,"_104":246,"_99":32,"_163":164,"_165":-5,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_98":247},["D",1746107535590],[184],{"_102":210,"_95":211,"_155":115,"_157":-5,"_158":140,"_159":212,"_161":117,"_104":249,"_99":32,"_163":214,"_165":215,"_166":22,"_167":216,"_98":250},["D",1746107506129],[211],{"_102":220,"_95":221,"_155":222,"_157":-5,"_158":140,"_159":139,"_161":117,"_104":252,"_99":212,"_163":224,"_165":225,"_166":22,"_167":-5,"_98":253},["D",1747166036417],[221],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","isNew","flags",[],"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.environment-variables",{"_93":94,"_95":96,"_100":262,"_236":267},{"_102":103,"_95":96,"_104":263,"_106":-5,"_107":22,"_108":109,"_110":111,"_112":-5,"_14":113,"_114":115,"_116":117,"_118":119,"_120":32,"_16":121,"_122":123,"_124":123,"_125":126,"_127":126,"_128":126,"_129":123,"_130":123,"_23":264,"_134":265,"_137":266,"_149":22},["D",1746107448030],{"_93":94,"_132":133},{"_93":94,"_136":133},{"_99":139,"_95":43,"_102":140,"_141":103,"_142":-5,"_143":-5,"_144":-5,"_145":-5,"_146":-5,"_147":96,"_148":94},[],"actionData","errors"]

dcm31

usmnt_world_cup_roster_tracker

Environment variables