monitor error: ${String(e)}

`, {\n status: 500,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n }\n}\n",[],[282],"78c94703-df83-49a7-a1c8-0f3b8f7a1bea","llm-match.ts","ee9eef84-b258-11f1-9951-1607ee4eb77e",44,["D",1789623249708],"// llm-match.ts — the LLM judge tier of the market matcher.\n//\n// The deterministic layer (matcher.ts) scans ~27k Kalshi markets for free and\n// hands over a short candidate list. This module asks a small, cheap model one\n// narrow question per Polymarket market: which candidate refers to the same\n// real-world event, and what KIND of relationship is it?\n//\n// Design notes:\n// - PROVIDER-AGNOSTIC. \"valtown\" uses Val Town's built-in OpenAI proxy: no API\n// key, no billing, nano-class model, ~10 requests/min. \"anthropic\" uses\n// Claude Haiku and needs ANTHROPIC_API_KEY. Default is valtown (free); if the\n// key exists, anthropic is preferred. Set explicitly to A/B the two.\n// - GRADED, not binary. A Kalshi market that isn't identical can still inform\n// us. \"same\" = tradeable 1:1. \"nested\" = a sub-option or threshold inside the\n// same question, still directly informative. \"proxy\" = correlated but\n// materially different, corroboration only, never a literal price\n// comparison. \"unrelated\" = drop.\n// - Reports SIDE ALIGNMENT (does Kalshi YES mean the same thing as Polymarket\n// YES), which is what lets us compute an honest price gap.\n// - It NEVER decides a trade. It classifies markets. The deterministic layer\n// still owns every trading decision.\n// - Degrades safely: any failure returns null and the caller falls back to\n// deterministic-only matching.\n// - Judgments are cached in SQLite (keyed by provider) so repeated 6h runs\n// don't re-pay, and so the two providers can be compared on the same pairs.\n\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\nimport type { KMarket } from \"./matcher.ts\";\n\nconst HAIKU = \"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001\";\nconst NANO = \"gpt-4.5-nano\";\nconst ANTHROPIC_API = \"https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages\";\nconst CACHE_TABLE = \"match_cache\";\n\nexport type Provider = \"valtown\" | \"anthropic\";\nexport type Relation = \"same\" | \"nested\" | \"proxy\" | \"unrelated\";\n\nexport interface Judgment {\n best: number | null; // 1-based index into the candidate list, or null\n relation: Relation;\n confidence: number; // 0..1\n aligned: boolean | null; // does Kalshi YES == Polymarket YES?\n reason: string;\n provider?: Provider;\n cached?: boolean;\n}\n\nconst SYSTEM = `You match prediction markets across two venues (Polymarket and Kalshi).\nGiven one Polymarket question and numbered Kalshi candidate markets, pick the candidate that refers to the same underlying real-world event and classify the relationship.\n\nRelations:\n- \"same\": identical question AND resolution criteria. A position in one is economically equivalent to a position in the other.\n- \"nested\": the same broader question, but one side is a specific sub-option, threshold, bracket, or component of the other (e.g. a specific rate band inside a rate decision, or one party's outcome inside a control-of-chamber market). Directly informative.\n- \"proxy\": correlated but materially different question — different entity, different bar, different mechanism, or a comparative/\"which happens first\" framing. Useful only as soft corroboration, never as a literal price comparison.\n- \"unrelated\": no useful relationship.\n\nAlso report side alignment: does the Kalshi market's YES outcome mean the same real-world outcome as the Polymarket question's YES? true if yes, false if it is inverted, null if unclear or unrelated.\n\nBe strict about \"same\". If resolution criteria or dates could differ, use \"nested\" or \"proxy\".\n\nRespond with ONLY a JSON object, no prose, no code fences:\n{\"best\": <1-based number or null>, \"relation\": \"same\"|\"nested\"|\"proxy\"|\"unrelated\", \"confidence\": <0..1>, \"aligned\": true|false|null, \"reason\": \"\"}`;\n\nfunction hash(s: string): string {\n let h = 5381;\n for (let i = 0; i < s.length; i++) h = ((h << 5) + h + s.charCodeAt(i)) | 0;\n return (h >>> 0).toString(36);\n}\n\nexport function hasAnthropicKey(): boolean {\n return Boolean(Deno.env.get(\"ANTHROPIC_API_KEY\"));\n}\n\n// Free built-in proxy by default; upgrade to Haiku automatically if a key exists.\nexport function defaultProvider(): Provider {\n return hasAnthropicKey() ? \"anthropic\" : \"valtown\";\n}\n\nasync function ensureCache(): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute(\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${CACHE_TABLE} (k TEXT PRIMARY KEY, json TEXT NOT NULL, ts TEXT NOT NULL)`,\n );\n}\n\nfunction parseJudgment(text: string): Judgment | null {\n const m = text.match(/\\{[\\s\\S]*\\}/); // tolerate stray prose or code fences\n if (!m) return null;\n try {\n const o = JSON.parse(m[0]);\n const rel = [\"same\", \"nested\", \"proxy\", \"unrelated\"].includes(o.relation) ? o.relation as Relation : \"unrelated\";\n return {\n best: typeof o.best === \"number\" ? o.best : null,\n relation: rel,\n confidence: typeof o.confidence === \"number\" ? Math.max(0, Math.min(1, o.confidence)) : 0,\n aligned: o.aligned === true ? true : o.aligned === false ? false : null,\n reason: typeof o.reason === \"string\" ? o.reason.slice(0, 200) : \"\",\n };\n } catch {\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nasync function callAnthropic(user: string): Promise {\n const key = Deno.env.get(\"ANTHROPIC_API_KEY\");\n if (!key) return null;\n try {\n const res = await fetch(ANTHROPIC_API, {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"x-api-key\": key, \"anthropic-version\": \"2023-06-01\", \"content-type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({\n model: HAIKU,\n max_tokens: 300,\n temperature: 0,\n system: SYSTEM,\n messages: [{ role: \"user\", content: user }],\n }),\n signal: AbortSignal.timeout(20000),\n });\n if (!res.ok) return null;\n const j = await res.json();\n return (j.content ?? []).map((b: any) => b?.text ?? \"\").join(\"\");\n } catch {\n return null;\n }\n}\n\n// Val Town's built-in OpenAI proxy: no API key required.\n// Rate limited (~10 req/min), so callers should throttle and lean on the cache.\nasync function callValtown(user: string): Promise {\n try {\n const { OpenAI } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/openai/main.ts\");\n const openai = new OpenAI();\n const completion = await openai.chat.completions.create({\n model: NANO,\n max_completion_tokens: 300,\n messages: [\n { role: \"system\", content: SYSTEM },\n { role: \"user\", content: user },\n ],\n });\n return completion.choices?.[0]?.message?.content ?? null;\n } catch {\n return null;\n }\n}\n\n// Judge one Polymarket market against its candidate shortlist.\n// Returns null if the model is unavailable or the call fails — callers must\n// fall back to deterministic matching rather than treating null as \"unrelated\".\nexport async function judge(\n polyText: string,\n cands: KMarket[],\n opts: { useCache?: boolean; provider?: Provider } = {},\n): Promise {\n if (cands.length === 0) return null;\n const provider = opts.provider ?? defaultProvider();\n const useCache = opts.useCache !== false;\n\n const listing = cands.map((k, i) => `${i + 1}. ${k.text}`).join(\"\\n\");\n const user = `Polymarket question:\\n${polyText}\\n\\nKalshi candidates:\\n${listing}`;\n const cacheKey = provider + \":\" + hash(polyText + \"||\" + cands.map((c) => c.ticker).join(\",\"));\n\n if (useCache) {\n try {\n await ensureCache();\n const r = await sqlite.execute({ sql: `SELECT json FROM ${CACHE_TABLE} WHERE k = ?`, args: [cacheKey] });\n const row = r.rows?.[0] as any;\n if (row) {\n const raw = typeof row === \"object\" && \"json\" in row ? row.json : row[0];\n return { ...JSON.parse(raw), provider, cached: true };\n }\n } catch {\n // cache is best-effort\n }\n }\n\n const text = provider === \"anthropic\" ? await callAnthropic(user) : await callValtown(user);\n if (!text) return null;\n\n const verdict = parseJudgment(text);\n if (!verdict) return null;\n if (verdict.best != null && (verdict.best < 1 || verdict.best > cands.length)) verdict.best = null;\n verdict.provider = provider;\n\n if (useCache) {\n try {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${CACHE_TABLE} (k, json, ts) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [cacheKey, JSON.stringify(verdict), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n } catch {\n // best-effort\n }\n }\n return verdict;\n}\n",[],[288],"7c479c6c-2ac5-49b5-9a73-7f27336a3447","lib.ts","e740e4c2-b217-11f1-aacd-1607ee4eb77e",["D",1789595115886],"// lib.ts — shared logic for the live prediction-market monitor (detect-only).\n// Fetches public Kalshi + Polymarket data, runs fee-aware detection and a\n// predicate/subject/year-aware cross-venue matcher, and renders the dashboard.\n// No account, no keys, no orders. Reads public prices only.\n\nconst STOP = new Set(\n \"a an the of to in on for and or is are be will who what which when where by at as this that it who's whos then do does did have has had not no s\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\n// Generic words shared across many markets — NOT distinctive. Includes role\n// words (prime minister, chancellor, ceo, ...) so \"next Prime Minister of X\"\n// only matches on the country/person, never on the shared role.\nconst GENERIC = new Set(\n \"democratic democrat republican gop presidential president vice vp nomination nominee nominated election elect electoral senate senator house congress governor gubernatorial mayor mayoral party primary race win wins winner won run runs running candidate candidacy next control chamber seat margin victory popular vote general ticket secretary attorney prime minister chancellor premier king queen pope ceo chairman chair leader head monarch state states us united 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 before after during term season game match team cup league\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\nconst WIN = new Set([\"win\", \"wins\", \"winner\", \"won\"]);\nconst RUN = new Set([\"run\", \"runs\", \"running\", \"candidate\", \"candidacy\", \"enter\", \"declare\", \"announce\", \"launch\"]);\nconst RETIRE = new Set([\"retire\", \"retires\", \"retirement\"]);\n// If a Polymarket \"will X WIN\" question is matched to Kalshi, the Kalshi side\n// must be a selection market (contain one of these), else it's a different bet.\nconst SELECTION = new Set([\"nominee\", \"nominated\", \"nomination\", \"winner\", \"win\", \"wins\", \"won\", \"election\", \"elected\"]);\n\nconst KALSHI_EVENTS = \"https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?limit=200&status=open&with_nested_markets=true\";\n\nfunction fnum(x: unknown): number {\n const n = parseFloat(String(x));\n return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : 0;\n}\nfunction fee(p: number): number {\n return p > 0 && p < 1 ? 0.07 * p * (1 - p) : 0;\n}\nfunction tok(text: string): string[] {\n return (text || \"\").toLowerCase().match(/[a-z0-9]+/g)?.filter((w) => !STOP.has(w) && w.length >= 2) ?? [];\n}\nfunction subjects(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => !GENERIC.has(w) && w.length >= 3 && !/^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction years(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => /^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction action(toks: string[]): string {\n const s = new Set(toks);\n const has = (g: Set) => [...g].some((w) => s.has(w));\n if (has(RETIRE)) return \"RETIRE\";\n if (has(WIN) && !has(RUN)) return \"WIN\";\n if (has(RUN) && !has(WIN)) return \"RUN\";\n return \"UNKNOWN\";\n}\nfunction inter(a: Set, b: Set): number {\n let n = 0;\n for (const x of a) if (b.has(x)) n++;\n return n;\n}\nfunction overlap(a: string[], b: string[]): number {\n const A = new Set(a), B = new Set(b);\n const m = Math.min(A.size, B.size);\n return m ? inter(A, B) / m : 0;\n}\n\nasync function getJson(url: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(url, { headers: { \"User-Agent\": \"predmarket-monitor/1.0\" } });\n if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`${url} -> ${r.status}`);\n return r.json();\n}\n\nexport interface KBinary {\n text: string; tok: string[]; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string;\n yes_ask: number; no_ask: number; vol: number;\n}\nexport interface NetLock { title: string; n: number; lock_net: number; vol: number; }\nexport interface PolyMkt { q: string; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string; tok: string[]; yes: number; no: number; }\nexport interface Lead { q: string; k: string; score: number; net: number; side: string; }\n\nasync function fetchKalshi(pages: number): Promise<{ binaries: KBinary[]; netLocks: NetLock[] }> {\n const binaries: KBinary[] = [];\n const netLocks: NetLock[] = [];\n let cursor: string | undefined;\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const data = await getJson(KALSHI_EVENTS + (cursor ? \"&cursor=\" + cursor : \"\"));\n for (const ev of data.events ?? []) {\n const title: string = ev.title ?? \"\";\n const me = Boolean(ev.mutually_exclusive);\n const outs: { ya: number; na: number }[] = [];\n for (const m of ev.markets ?? []) {\n const ya = fnum(m.yes_ask_dollars), na = fnum(m.no_ask_dollars), mv = fnum(m.volume_fp);\n if (me && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) outs.push({ ya, na });\n if (mv > 0 && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) {\n const sub = m.yes_sub_title || m.subtitle || \"\";\n const text = (title + \" \" + sub).trim();\n const t = tok(text);\n binaries.push({ text, tok: t, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), yes_ask: ya, no_ask: na, vol: mv });\n }\n }\n if (me && outs.length >= 2) {\n const n = outs.length;\n const lockGross = (n - 1) - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + o.na, 0);\n const lockNet = lockGross - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + fee(o.na), 0);\n if (lockNet > 0) netLocks.push({ title, n, lock_net: lockNet, vol: ev.markets?.reduce((s: number, m: any) => s + fnum(m.volume_fp), 0) ?? 0 });\n }\n }\n cursor = data.cursor;\n if (!cursor) break;\n }\n netLocks.sort((a, b) => b.lock_net - a.lock_net);\n return { binaries, netLocks };\n}\n\nasync function fetchPoly(): Promise {\n const url = \"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=250&active=true&closed=false&order=volumeNum&ascending=false\";\n const rows = await getJson(url);\n const list = Array.isArray(rows) ? rows : (rows.data ?? []);\n const out: PolyMkt[] = [];\n for (const m of list) {\n let outs: string[], prices: number[];\n try { outs = JSON.parse(m.outcomes ?? \"[]\"); prices = (JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices ?? \"[]\") as string[]).map(Number); }\n catch { continue; }\n const low = outs.map((o) => String(o).toLowerCase());\n if (low.includes(\"yes\") && low.includes(\"no\") && prices.length === outs.length) {\n const q = m.question ?? \"\";\n const t = tok(q);\n out.push({ q, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), tok: t, yes: prices[low.indexOf(\"yes\")], no: prices[low.indexOf(\"no\")] });\n }\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction crossMatch(binaries: KBinary[], poly: PolyMkt[]): Lead[] {\n const index = new Map();\n for (const k of binaries) for (const s of k.subj) (index.get(s) ?? index.set(s, []).get(s)!).push(k);\n const leads: Lead[] = [];\n for (const p of poly) {\n if (p.subj.size < 2) continue;\n const seen = new Set();\n const cands: KBinary[] = [];\n for (const s of p.subj) for (const k of index.get(s) ?? []) if (!seen.has(k)) { seen.add(k); cands.push(k); }\n let best: KBinary | null = null, bestScore = 0;\n for (const k of cands) {\n if (inter(p.subj, k.subj) < 2) continue; // >=2 shared distinctive words\n if ([\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(p.act) && [\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(k.act) && p.act !== k.act) continue;\n if (p.yr.size && k.yr.size && inter(p.yr, k.yr) === 0) continue; // year conflict\n if (p.act === \"WIN\" && !k.tok.some((w) => SELECTION.has(w))) continue; // WIN must match a selection market\n const sc = overlap(p.tok, k.tok);\n if (sc > bestScore) { best = k; bestScore = sc; }\n }\n if (best && bestScore >= 0.5) {\n const netA = 1 - (best.yes_ask + p.no) - fee(best.yes_ask);\n const netB = 1 - (p.yes + best.no_ask) - fee(best.no_ask);\n const [net, side] = netA >= netB ? [netA, \"Kalshi YES + Poly NO\"] : [netB, \"Poly YES + Kalshi NO\"];\n leads.push({ q: p.q, k: best.text, score: bestScore, net, side });\n }\n }\n return leads.sort((a, b) => b.net - a.net);\n}\n\nexport interface MonitorData {\n stamp: string; kalshiCount: number; polyCount: number; netLocks: NetLock[]; leads: Lead[];\n}\n\nexport async function compute(pages = 4): Promise {\n const [{ binaries, netLocks }, poly] = await Promise.all([fetchKalshi(pages), fetchPoly()]);\n const leads = crossMatch(binaries, poly);\n return {\n stamp: new Date().toISOString().replace(\"T\", \" \").slice(0, 19) + \" UTC\",\n kalshiCount: binaries.length, polyCount: poly.length, netLocks, leads,\n };\n}\n\n// Leads worth an email alert: net edge above threshold. Conservative to avoid spam.\nexport function strongLeads(d: MonitorData, minNet = 0.03): Lead[] {\n return d.leads.filter((l) => l.net >= minNet);\n}\n\nconst esc = (s: string) => String(s).replace(/[&<>\"]/g, (c) => ({ \"&\": \"&\", \"<\": \"<\", \">\": \">\", '\"': \""\" }[c]!));\nconst c = (x: number) => (x >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + (x * 100).toFixed(1) + \"c\";\n\nexport function renderDashboard(d: MonitorData, refresh = 60): string {\n const posLeads = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const tiles = [\n [d.kalshiCount, \"Kalshi markets\"], [d.polyCount, \"Polymarket markets\"],\n [d.leads.length, \"cross-venue matches\"], [posLeads.length, \"net-positive leads\"],\n ].map(([n, l]) => `

${n}

${l}

`).join(\"\");\n\n const leadRows = d.leads.slice(0, 25).map((l) => {\n const cls = l.net > 0 ? \"pos\" : \"neg\";\n const pill = l.net > 0 ? 'lead' : \"\";\n return `${esc(l.q.slice(0, 62))}
${esc(l.k.slice(0, 62))}` +\n `${l.score.toFixed(2)}${c(l.net)}${esc(l.side)}${pill}`;\n }).join(\"\");\n const leadsHtml = d.leads.length\n ? `${leadRows}

Matched pair (Polymarket / Kalshi)	Match	Net edge	Construction

`\n : '

No confident cross-venue matches this cycle.

';\n\n const locksHtml = d.netLocks.length\n ? `${d.netLocks.slice(0, 10).map((m) => ``).join(\"\")}

Event	Outcomes	Net edge
${esc(m.title.slice(0, 60))}	${m.n}	${c(m.lock_net)}

`\n : '

No single-venue lock clears fees this cycle. Normal and expected.

';\n\n return `\n\n\nLive Prediction Market Monitor

Live Prediction Market Monitor

Detect-only, hosted on Val Town. Auto-refreshing every ${refresh}s. Last updated ${esc(d.stamp)}.

${tiles}

Cross-venue leads (Kalshi vs Polymarket)

Same-bet matches with a positive net-of-fees edge. UNVERIFIED leads: confirm identical resolution + date, use executable order-book prices, and check you can trade the Polymarket side as a US resident before trusting any of these.

\n${leadsHtml}

Single-venue locks (Kalshi, fee-aware)

Mutually-exclusive events whose sell-side edge survives estimated fees.

\n${locksHtml}

Live public-data monitor. It only reads; it never trades. Cross-venue edges use indicative Polymarket prices, not executable order-book asks.

`;\n}\n",[],[296],"6291d64b-3984-4a40-b237-f0e762ebdd04","index.html","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-aa3cf4df43c1",["D",1789595019450],"\n\n \n Hi there!\n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n

Hi there!

\n\n

\n I'm your cool new webpage. Made with Val Town!\n

\n \n",[],[303],"f8da3c4c-9065-4a06-824d-4611e8553309","favicon.svg","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a42e3b3ec658",["D",1789595019450],"",[],[310],"326700fa-866e-432e-8078-bc797834eb0d","desk.tsx","f9d09f46-b245-11f1-bd95-1607ee4eb77e",34,["D",1789617448415],"import { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nconst GAMMA = \"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com\";\nconst STAKE = 100;\nconst esc = (s: any) => String(s ?? \"\").replace(/[&<>]/g, (c) => ({ \"&\": \"&\", \"<\": \"<\", \">\": \">\" }[c]!));\nconst money = (n: number) => (n < 0 ? \"-$\" : \"$\") + Math.abs(n).toFixed(0);\nconst pct = (n: number) => (n >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + n.toFixed(1) + \"%\";\nconst cls = (n: number) => (n >= 0 ? \"pos\" : \"neg\");\n\nasync function currentPrices(cids: string[]) {\n const out = new Map();\n for (let i = 0; i < cids.length; i += 20) {\n const qs = cids.slice(i, i + 20).map((c) => `condition_ids=${c}`).join(\"&\");\n try {\n const r = await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets?${qs}&limit=100`, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(12000) });\n if (!r.ok) continue;\n for (const m of (await r.json()) as any[]) {\n try { out.set(m.conditionId, { outcomes: JSON.parse(m.outcomes ?? \"[]\"), prices: JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices ?? \"[]\").map(Number) }); } catch { /* skip */ }\n }\n } catch { /* skip */ }\n }\n return out;\n}\n\n// Cumulative realized-P&L equity curve as a simple inline SVG.\nfunction curve(vals: number[]): string {\n if (vals.length < 2) return `

The equity curve draws itself once a couple of positions resolve.

`;\n const W = 900, H = 120, pad = 8;\n const lo = Math.min(0, ...vals), hi = Math.max(0, ...vals), span = hi - lo || 1;\n const x = (i: number) => pad + (i / (vals.length - 1)) * (W - 2 * pad);\n const y = (v: number) => H - pad - ((v - lo) / span) * (H - 2 * pad);\n const pts = vals.map((v, i) => `${x(i).toFixed(1)},${y(v).toFixed(1)}`).join(\" \");\n const zeroY = y(0).toFixed(1);\n const last = vals[vals.length - 1];\n return ``;\n}\n\nexport default async function (): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute(`CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trades (\n asset TEXT PRIMARY KEY, opened_ts TEXT, category TEXT, market TEXT, side TEXT,\n conditionId TEXT, endDate TEXT, entry REAL, holders INTEGER, coHold INTEGER, conviction REAL,\n stake REAL, status TEXT, resolved_ts TEXT, won INTEGER, pnl REAL, roi REAL, settled INTEGER)`);\n const rows = (await sqlite.execute(`SELECT * FROM paper_trades`)).rows as any[];\n const open = rows.filter((r) => r.status === \"open\");\n const closed = rows.filter((r) => r.status !== \"open\").sort((a, b) => (b.resolved_ts > a.resolved_ts ? 1 : -1));\n\n // mark open positions to current market price\n const mk = await currentPrices([...new Set(open.map((r) => String(r.conditionId)))]);\n for (const r of open) {\n const m = mk.get(String(r.conditionId));\n r._cur = null; r._unreal = null;\n if (m) {\n const i = m.outcomes.findIndex((o) => o.toLowerCase() === String(r.side).toLowerCase());\n if (i >= 0 && Number.isFinite(m.prices[i]) && r.entry > 0) { r._cur = m.prices[i]; r._unreal = STAKE * (m.prices[i] / r.entry - 1); }\n }\n }\n open.sort((a, b) => (b._unreal ?? -1e9) - (a._unreal ?? -1e9));\n\n const wins = closed.filter((r) => r.won === 1).length;\n const realized = closed.reduce((a, r) => a + (Number(r.pnl) || 0), 0);\n const unrealized = open.reduce((a, r) => a + (r._unreal ?? 0), 0);\n const net = realized + unrealized;\n const hit = closed.length ? (wins / closed.length * 100) : 0;\n\n // category scoreboard (economics vs politics), realized + current open exposure\n const cat: Record = {};\n for (const r of rows) {\n const c = cat[r.category] ??= { open: 0, openUnreal: 0, closed: 0, wins: 0, realized: 0, sumRoi: 0 };\n if (r.status === \"open\") { c.open++; c.openUnreal += r._unreal ?? 0; }\n else { c.closed++; if (r.won === 1) c.wins++; c.realized += Number(r.pnl) || 0; c.sumRoi += Number(r.roi) || 0; }\n }\n const scoreRows = Object.entries(cat).sort((a, b) => b[1].realized - a[1].realized).map(([name, c]) =>\n `${esc(name)}${c.open}${money(c.openUnreal)}${c.closed}${c.closed ? (c.wins / c.closed * 100).toFixed(0) + \"%\" : \"—\"}${c.closed ? pct(c.sumRoi / c.closed) : \"—\"}${money(c.realized)}`\n ).join(\"\") || `No positions yet.`;\n\n // equity curve values (cumulative realized over resolution order)\n const curveVals: number[] = [];\n let acc = 0;\n for (const r of [...closed].reverse()) { acc += Number(r.pnl) || 0; curveVals.push(acc); }\n\n const openRows = open.map((r) => {\n const cur = r._cur != null ? Math.round(r._cur * 100) + \"c\" : \"—\";\n const u = r._unreal;\n return `${esc(r.market)}${esc(r.side)}${Math.round(r.entry * 100)}c${cur}${u == null ? \"—\" : money(u)}${r.holders}${r.coHold}${esc(r.category)}`;\n }).join(\"\") || `No open paper positions yet.`;\n\n const closedRows = closed.map((r) =>\n `${esc(r.market)}${esc(r.side)}${Math.round(r.entry * 100)}c${r.won ? \"WON\" : \"LOST\"}${r.settled ? \"\" : \"*\"}${money(Number(r.pnl))}${pct(Number(r.roi))}${esc(r.category)}`\n ).join(\"\") || `Nothing resolved yet.`;\n\n const html = `\n\nSmart-Money Paper Desk

Smart-Money Paper Desk

Paper trading only — no real money. $${STAKE}/position. Open bets are marked to the live market price. Auto-refresh 60s. ${esc(new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 16).replace(\"T\", \" \"))} UTC.

${money(net)}

Net P&L (real + unreal)

${money(realized)}

Realized (closed)

${money(unrealized)}

Unrealized (open)

${hit.toFixed(0)}%

Win rate (${wins}/${closed.length})

${open.length}

Open positions

Equity curve

Cumulative realized profit and loss as positions settle.

${curve(curveVals)}

Scoreboard by category

The question that decides everything: does the tradeable ECONOMICS lane (US macro) beat the POLITICS control (mostly foreign elections)?

\n${scoreRows}

Category	Open	Open P&L	Closed	Win %	Avg ROI	Realized

Open positions

Live bets, marked to the current market price.

\n${openRows}

Market	Side	Entry	Now	Unreal.	Traders	coHold	Cat.

Closed positions

Resolved bets. * = decided by price, not yet officially settled.

\n${closedRows}

Market	Side	Entry	Result	P&L	ROI	Cat.

Detect + paper-execute only. Never places real trades. Entry and mark are observed mid prices, gross of fees, not executable quotes. Earned-autonomy track: prove an edge on paper before any real capital.

`;\n return new Response(html, { headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" } });\n}\n",[],[317],"30ebd3cb-34da-4150-957c-fa652cd92580","data-api.ts","47307b60-b23e-11f1-b0d1-1607ee4eb77e",18,["D",1789611973733],"const DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\nexport async function readRows(path: string, params: Record) {\n const url = new URL(path, DATA);\n for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(params)) url.searchParams.set(key, String(value));\n const response = await fetch(url, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(15000) });\n if (!response.ok) throw new Error(`${path}: HTTP ${response.status}`);\n const rows: unknown = await response.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(rows) || rows.some((r) => !r || typeof r !== \"object\" || Array.isArray(r))) {\n throw new Error(`${path}: expected an array of records`);\n }\n return rows as Record[];\n}\n\n// Authoritative total portfolio value (Polymarket's own computed number), used as\n// the conviction denominator so it includes the long tail of dust we don't page.\nexport async function readValue(wallet: string): Promise {\n const rows = await readRows(\"/value\", { user: wallet });\n const v = rows[0]?.value;\n if (!Number.isFinite(v) || v < 0) throw new Error(\"/value: missing or invalid portfolio value\");\n return v as number;\n}\n\n// MEANINGFUL current positions, largest-value first, stopping once below minValue.\n// Server-side sort (sortBy=CURRENT desc) means even a wallet holding thousands of\n// dust positions returns in a page or two, because we never page past the\n// positions large enough to matter. Still validates identifiers/prices.\nexport async function readPositions(wallet: string, minValue = 0) {\n const rows: Record[] = [];\n const seen = new Set();\n for (let offset = 0; offset <= 20000; offset += 500) {\n const page = await readRows(\"/positions\", {\n user: wallet, limit: 500, offset, sizeThreshold: 0, sortBy: \"CURRENT\", sortDirection: \"DESC\",\n });\n for (const p of page) {\n if (typeof p.asset !== \"string\" || !p.asset || typeof p.conditionId !== \"string\" || !p.conditionId ||\n !Number.isFinite(p.currentValue) || p.currentValue < 0 ||\n !Number.isFinite(p.curPrice) || p.curPrice < 0 || p.curPrice > 1) {\n throw new Error(\"/positions: invalid identifiers or prices\");\n }\n if (p.currentValue < minValue) return rows; // sorted desc: everything after is smaller\n if (seen.has(p.asset)) throw new Error(\"/positions: duplicate asset; unstable pagination\");\n seen.add(p.asset);\n rows.push(p);\n }\n if (page.length < 500) return rows;\n }\n throw new Error(\"/positions: pagination limit reached; incomplete portfolio\");\n}\n",[],[325],"fbc1fba8-f6a4-436d-ab86-93e11db412d6","cron.ts","144328e0-b218-11f1-bc6e-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1789595191397],"import { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\nimport { compute } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Runs on a schedule (every 15 min on Val Town free tier) and records one row\n// per cycle, so over days we build the evidence base to answer the real\n// question: does a genuine net-positive edge ever appear, how large, how often?\n// Email alerts are intentionally NOT wired yet — they come with the automated\n// LLM verification step, so we only ever alert on verified leads, never the\n// residual false ones.\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n const d = await compute(5);\n await sqlite.execute(`CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS history (\n ts TEXT, kalshi INTEGER, poly INTEGER, matches INTEGER, pos INTEGER, best_net REAL\n )`);\n const pos = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const best = d.leads.length ? d.leads[0].net : 0;\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: \"INSERT INTO history (ts, kalshi, poly, matches, pos, best_net) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)\",\n args: [d.stamp, d.kalshiCount, d.polyCount, d.leads.length, pos.length, best],\n });\n console.log(\n `stored ${d.stamp}: kalshi=${d.kalshiCount} poly=${d.polyCount} matches=${d.leads.length} pos=${pos.length} best=${(best * 100).toFixed(1)}c`,\n );\n}\n",[],[333],"8ef4f237-c489-4f18-b4b8-ff70d96ec5c5","confluence.tsx","0a0ca204-b22a-11f1-ab9a-1607ee4eb77e",20,["D",1789612429205],"import { leaderboard } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\nimport { readRows, readValue, readPositions } from \"./data-api.ts\";\n\n// v2.2: integrity-hardened (from Codex's data-integrity pass) + signal-quality\n// refinements (Claude).\n// - Meaningful CURRENT holdings only (>= dust), largest-first; even wallets with\n// thousands of dust positions return fast, so no trader is dropped.\n// - Conviction denominator = authoritative /value portfolio total.\n// - Per-wallet errors are reported, not fatal (partial flag; no blanking).\n// - BOTH-SIDES NETTING: a trader hedged on both outcomes of a market is netted\n// out of it (market-making, not a directional view).\n// - CONVICTION: each holder's position as % of their live book.\n// - INDEPENDENCE: coHold = how many markets a confluence's holders ALL share; a\n// high number means they hold a bit of everything, so the agreement is cheap.\nexport const COLLECTOR_VERSION = \"2.2.0\";\nconst categories = new Set([\"OVERALL\", \"POLITICS\", \"SPORTS\", \"ESPORTS\", \"CRYPTO\", \"CULTURE\", \"MENTIONS\", \"WEATHER\", \"ECONOMICS\", \"TECH\", \"FINANCE\"]);\n\nfunction parameters(url: URL) {\n const category = url.searchParams.get(\"cat\") ?? \"POLITICS\";\n const top = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"top\") ?? 8);\n const minvol = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"minvol\") ?? 250000);\n const dust = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"dust\") ?? 500);\n if (!categories.has(category) || !Number.isInteger(top) || top < 1 || top > 50 ||\n !Number.isFinite(minvol) || minvol < 0 || !Number.isFinite(dust) || dust < 0) {\n throw new Error(\"Invalid parameters: category, top (1-50), minvol or dust\");\n }\n return { category, top, minvol, dust };\n}\n\nconst tradeable = (p: any) => p.redeemable !== true && p.curPrice > 0 && p.curPrice < 1;\n\nexport async function collectSnapshot(url: URL) {\n const params = parameters(url);\n const startedAt = new Date().toISOString();\n const candidates = (await leaderboard(params.category, 1, \"MONTH\")).slice(0, params.top);\n if (new Set(candidates.map((c) => c.proxyWallet.toLowerCase())).size !== candidates.length) {\n throw new Error(\"Duplicate wallet in candidate leaderboard\");\n }\n\n const observations: any[] = [];\n const errors: { wallet: string; message: string }[] = [];\n for (const candidate of candidates) {\n const wallet = candidate.proxyWallet;\n try {\n const all = (await readRows(\"/v1/leaderboard\", { category: params.category, timePeriod: \"ALL\", user: wallet }))[0];\n if (!all || typeof all.proxyWallet !== \"string\" || all.proxyWallet.toLowerCase() !== wallet.toLowerCase() ||\n !Number.isFinite(all.pnl) || !Number.isFinite(all.vol) || all.vol < 0) {\n throw new Error(\"Missing or invalid all-time trader record\");\n }\n const qualified = candidate.pnl > 0 && all.pnl > 0 && all.vol >= params.minvol;\n const bookValue = qualified ? await readValue(wallet) : 0;\n const positions = qualified ? await readPositions(wallet, params.dust) : [];\n observations.push({ wallet, name: candidate.userName || wallet, qualified, month: candidate, allTime: all, bookValue, positions, observedAt: new Date().toISOString() });\n } catch (error) {\n errors.push({ wallet, message: String(error) });\n }\n }\n const qualified = observations.filter((o) => o.qualified);\n\n const sides = new Map();\n for (const trader of qualified) {\n // both-sides netting: drop any market where this trader holds >1 outcome\n const outcomes = new Map>();\n for (const p of trader.positions) {\n if (!tradeable(p)) continue;\n const set = outcomes.get(p.conditionId) ?? new Set();\n set.add(p.asset);\n outcomes.set(p.conditionId, set);\n }\n const hedged = new Set([...outcomes].filter(([, s]) => s.size > 1).map(([cid]) => cid));\n\n for (const p of trader.positions) {\n if (!tradeable(p) || hedged.has(p.conditionId)) continue;\n let side = sides.get(p.asset);\n if (!side) {\n side = { asset: p.asset, conditionId: p.conditionId, market: p.title, side: p.outcome, endDate: p.endDate, holders: [] as any[] };\n sides.set(p.asset, side);\n }\n if (side.conditionId !== p.conditionId || side.side !== p.outcome) {\n throw new Error(\"Inconsistent market identifiers across portfolios\");\n }\n const convictionPct = trader.bookValue > 0 ? +((p.currentValue / trader.bookValue) * 100).toFixed(1) : 0;\n side.holders.push({ name: trader.name, value: p.currentValue, avgPrice: p.avgPrice ?? null, observedPrice: p.curPrice, convictionPct });\n }\n }\n\n // independence: which markets each trader is in, to measure shared breadth\n const heldByTrader = new Map>();\n for (const [asset, s] of sides) {\n for (const h of s.holders) {\n let set = heldByTrader.get(h.name);\n if (!set) { set = new Set(); heldByTrader.set(h.name, set); }\n set.add(asset);\n }\n }\n\n const confluence = [...sides.values()].filter((s) => s.holders.length >= 2).map((s) => {\n const total = s.holders.reduce((a: number, h: any) => a + h.value, 0);\n const minConvictionPct = Math.min(...s.holders.map((h: any) => h.convictionPct));\n const sets = s.holders.map((h: any) => heldByTrader.get(h.name)!);\n let inter = new Set(sets[0]);\n for (const st of sets.slice(1)) inter = new Set([...inter].filter((a) => st.has(a)));\n const coHold = inter.size; // markets ALL these holders share (>=1, this one)\n s.holders.sort((a: any, b: any) => b.value - a.value);\n return {\n asset: s.asset, conditionId: s.conditionId,\n market: s.market, side: s.side, endDate: s.endDate,\n holders: s.holders.length,\n minConvictionPct, coHold,\n currentPrice: +(s.holders[0].observedPrice * 100).toFixed(1),\n totalExposure: \"$\" + Math.round(total), totalExposureValue: Math.round(total),\n who: s.holders.map((h: any) => `${h.name} ($${Math.round(h.value)}, ${h.convictionPct}% of book @ ${h.avgPrice != null ? Math.round(h.avgPrice * 100) : \"?\"}c)`),\n };\n }).sort((a, b) =>\n b.holders - a.holders ||\n a.coHold - b.coHold || // prefer distinct pairs over hold-everything grinders\n b.minConvictionPct - a.minConvictionPct ||\n Number(b.totalExposure.slice(1)) - Number(a.totalExposure.slice(1)));\n\n const complete = errors.length === 0;\n return {\n schemaVersion: 3, collectorVersion: COLLECTOR_VERSION, startedAt, completedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n complete, partial: !complete,\n params: { ...params, vettedTraders: qualified.length, dustFloor: params.dust },\n vetted: qualified.map((o) => o.name), errors,\n confluenceCount: confluence.length, confluence,\n note: \"Confluence = same market+side held now by 2+ vetted traders, after netting out both-sides hedgers. convictionPct = position as % of that trader's live book. coHold = number of markets these same holders ALL share (higher = cheaper, hold-everything overlap). Gross overlap, NOT a trade recommendation; prices are observations, not executable quotes; positions are paged, not an atomic snapshot.\",\n };\n}\n\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n if (req.method !== \"GET\") return Response.json({ error: \"GET required\" }, { status: 405 });\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n try { parameters(url); } catch (error) { return Response.json({ error: String(error) }, { status: 400 }); }\n try {\n const snapshot = await collectSnapshot(url);\n return Response.json(snapshot, { status: 200 });\n } catch (error) {\n return Response.json({ complete: false, error: String(error), collectorVersion: COLLECTOR_VERSION }, { status: 502 });\n }\n}\n",[],[341],["D",1789595019450],[],[18],["D",1789595019450],["D",1789596070409],{"_11":12,"_127":73},{"_11":12,"_122":123,"_72":73,"_30":71,"_124":125,"_126":24},{"_38":113,"_13":16,"_32":35,"_114":75,"_115":-5,"_116":-5,"_117":-5,"_118":-5,"_119":-5,"_120":14,"_121":12},"ctx",{"_53":-5,"_146":389,"_390":391,"_392":393,"_394":24,"_395":24,"_396":24,"_397":87,"_398":-5,"_399":-7,"_400":-7,"_401":26,"_402":24,"_403":24,"_404":-5,"_405":24,"_406":24,"_407":24,"_408":-5},"ENV",{"_360":361,"_362":363,"_364":16,"_365":366,"_367":368,"_369":370,"_371":372,"_373":374,"_375":376,"_377":378,"_379":380,"_381":382,"_383":384,"_385":386,"_387":388},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","c73f21da490985bff19c279eb0e09db24d688e4f","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

History · README.md