[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_154":155,"_156":157},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_95":94,"_32":45,"_104":85,"_27":105,"_13":14,"_106":-5,"_11":107,"_108":109,"_110":111,"_112":113,"_114":115,"_20":-5,"_116":-5,"_117":-5,"_118":25,"_119":120,"_121":58,"_122":-5,"_123":-5,"_124":125},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":46,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":31,"_57":58,"_59":-5,"_60":-5,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":-5,"_66":-5,"_67":-5,"_68":-5,"_69":70,"_71":70,"_72":73,"_74":73,"_75":73,"_76":70,"_77":70,"_78":79,"_80":81,"_82":83,"_84":25},"version",10,"changes",[19],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_20":21,"_22":23,"_24":25,"_26":25,"_27":28,"_29":28},"file",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_38":39,"_40":14,"_41":42,"_24":25},"previous",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":36},"deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","main.tsx","latestPath","fileId","b984bb80-62ee-11f1-9a36-1607ee4eb77e","name","fileType","http","content","/** @jsxImportSource npm:hono@4/jsx */\nimport { Hono } from \"npm:hono@4\";\n\nconst MARKET_ID = \"XCej5XDLSk9Mmt70VIjq\";\nconst MARKET_URL =\n \"https://manifold.markets/Charlie/which-players-will-be-submitted-for\";\n// Cutoff: 2026-05-26 00:00 UTC — before any announcement-day betting wave.\nconst CUTOFF_MS = 1779744000000;\n\nconst app = new Hono();\n\nconst fmt = (n: number) => n.toLocaleString(\"en-US\");\nconst monthName = (ym: string) => {\n const [y, mo] = ym.split(\"-\");\n return new Date(Number(y), Number(mo) - 1, 1)\n .toLocaleString(\"en-US\", { month: \"short\" }) + \" '\" + y.slice(2);\n};\n\nasync function fetchAllBets(contractId: string) {\n const all: any[] = [];\n let before: string | undefined;\n for (let i = 0; i < 50; i++) {\n let url =\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=${contractId}&limit=1000`;\n if (before) url += `&before=${before}`;\n const page: any[] = await fetch(url).then((r) => r.json());\n if (!page.length) break;\n all.push(...page);\n before = page[page.length - 1].id;\n if (page.length < 1000) break;\n }\n return all;\n}\n\n// The five most volatile names pre-announcement. Order is display order.\nconst FEATURED_ROCKY = [\n { name: \"Ricardo Pepi\" },\n { name: \"Alejandro Zendejas\" },\n { name: \"Diego Luna\" },\n { name: \"Tanner Tessmann\" },\n { name: \"Aidan Morris\" },\n];\n\nfunction sparkline(\n trace: Array<[number, number]>,\n color: string,\n w = 280,\n h = 44,\n) {\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const tMin = trace[0][0], tMax = trace[trace.length - 1][0];\n const dur = (tMax - tMin) || 1;\n const pts = trace.map(([t, p]) =>\n `${((t - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1)},${(h - p * h).toFixed(1)}`\n ).join(\" \");\n // Build the area-fill polygon: poly + close to bottom corners\n const lastX = ((tMax - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1);\n const areaPts = `0,${h} ${pts} ${lastX},${h}`;\n return ``;\n}\n\napp.get(\"/\", async (c) => {\n const [market, bets]: [any, any[]] = await Promise.all([\n fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${MARKET_ID}`).then((r) =>\n r.json()\n ),\n fetchAllBets(MARKET_ID),\n ]);\n\n const preBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime < CUTOFF_MS);\n const postBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime >= CUTOFF_MS);\n\n // Per-answer pre-announcement probability = latest probAfter before cutoff.\n const preProb: Record = {};\n // Per-answer full pre-cutoff trace for sparklines.\n const traces: Record> = {};\n for (\n const b of preBets.slice().sort((a, b) => a.createdTime - b.createdTime)\n ) {\n if (b.answerId && typeof b.probAfter === \"number\") {\n preProb[b.answerId] = b.probAfter;\n (traces[b.answerId] ||= []).push([b.createdTime, b.probAfter]);\n }\n }\n\n const snap = market.answers.map((a: any) => ({\n text: a.text,\n id: a.id,\n pre: preProb[a.id] ?? null,\n resolution: a.resolution,\n createdTime: a.createdTime,\n }));\n\n const yes = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"YES\");\n const no = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"NO\");\n\n const yesRanked = [...yes].sort((a, b) => (b.pre ?? -1) - (a.pre ?? -1));\n const noRanked = [...no].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n );\n\n const yesWithPrice = yesRanked.filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null);\n const yesMin = yesWithPrice[yesWithPrice.length - 1];\n const yesMax = yesWithPrice[0];\n\n // Answers added by month\n const byMonth: Record = {};\n for (const a of market.answers) {\n if (!a.createdTime) continue;\n const ym = new Date(a.createdTime).toISOString().slice(0, 7);\n byMonth[ym] = (byMonth[ym] || 0) + 1;\n }\n const months = Object.entries(byMonth).sort(([a], [b]) =>\n a.localeCompare(b)\n );\n const maxMonth = Math.max(...months.map(([, v]) => v as number));\n\n const days = Math.round(\n (market.resolutionTime - market.createdTime) / 86400000,\n );\n\n const monthRows = months.map(([ym, n]) => `\n

${monthName(ym)}

${n}

\n `).join(\"\");\n\n // Pre-announcement leaderboard (top 30 by pre-prob, color YES vs NO)\n const ranked = [...snap].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n ).slice(0, 30);\n const rankRows = ranked.map((s: any) => {\n const color = s.resolution === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#888\";\n return `\n

${s.text}

${(s.pre * 100).toFixed(0)}%

\n `;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n // Rocky journeys section\n const rockyRows = FEATURED_ROCKY.map((f) => {\n const ans = market.answers.find((a: any) => a.text === f.name);\n if (!ans) return \"\";\n const trace = traces[ans.id] || [];\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const probs = trace.map((t) => t[1]);\n const mn = Math.min(...probs);\n const mx = Math.max(...probs);\n const final = ans.resolution;\n const color = final === \"YES\" ? \"#b22222\" : \"#666\";\n const statusLabel = final === \"YES\" ? \"In\" : \"Cut\";\n return `\n

${f.name}

${statusLabel}

${sparkline(trace, color)}

low ${(mn * 100).toFixed(0)}% · high ${\n (mx * 100).toFixed(0)\n }% · ${trace.length} bets pre-announcement

`;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n return c.html(`\n\n\n\n\nUSMNT 2026: the market picked 25 of 26\n\n\n\n\n\n

USMNT World Cup 2026 / Manifold Markets

The market picked 25 of 26.

Two years of betting on Pochettino's roster, frozen two days before the announcement.

\n\n

Volume

M$${\n fmt(Math.round(market.volume))\n }

mana traded

Bettors

${market.uniqueBettorCount}

unique participants

Days open

${days}

Mar '24 → Jun '26

Pre/post bets

${preBets.length}/${postBets.length}

before/after announcement

\n\n

The pre-announcement leaderboard

Red made the squad. Grey didn't.

\n\n

${rankRows}

Top 30 answers by pre-May-26 probability. The top 25 are all eventual YESes, save Chris Brady, who wasn't even an answer yet.

\n\n

Rocky journeys

The five most volatile names, every pre-announcement bet.

\n\n

${rockyRows}

Each sparkline traces a player's pre-May-26 probability over every bet placed on them. Dashed line is the 50% mark.

\n\n

The bubble was crowded

Pulisic at ${yesMax ? Math.round((yesMax.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}% was the only YES the market was nearly certain of. The bottom of the YES list — ${yesMin ? yesMin.text : \"the last few names\"} — sat at ${yesMin ? Math.round((yesMin.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}%, in the same neighborhood as several players who ultimately got cut. The bubble wasn't a clean ladder. It was a packed band of 86–90% bets where any one swap would have looked reasonable.

\n\n

The announcement wave

When Pochettino's list dropped on May 26, the market reacted in real time. ${postBets.length} bets fired in 24 hours, ratcheting every confirmed name to its final price and crushing the snubs to near-zero. It's the cleanest demonstration you'll see of a market shifting from prediction to confirmation in one news cycle.

\n\n

The Brady gap

Chris Brady — the Chicago Fire goalkeeper Pochettino named as his third keeper — was never one of the market's answer options. Not for two years. Zero pre-announcement bets. He had to be added the day after the roster announcement, just so the market could resolve cleanly.

\n\n

Two years of curation

The market opened in March 2024 with 41 names seeded at once. Over the next 26 months, 29 more were added in irregular bursts that tracked the national team's life: Nations League camps, friendlies, Gold Cup, MLS form.

\n\n

${monthRows}

Answer options added per month.

\n\n

One human's obsession

The most active trader placed 117 separate bets on this single market. Another invested M$17,629 to clear M$727 in profit — a 4% return earned across more than a hundred individual moves. The volume on the snubs wasn't fifty people each placing one small bet. It was a handful of bettors trading their convictions over and over again.

\n\n \n

\n\n`);\n});\n\nexport default app.fetch;\n","/** @jsxImportSource npm:hono@4/jsx */\nimport { Hono } from \"npm:hono@4\";\n\nconst MARKET_ID = \"XCej5XDLSk9Mmt70VIjq\";\nconst MARKET_URL =\n \"https://manifold.markets/Charlie/which-players-will-be-submitted-for\";\n// Cutoff: 2026-05-26 00:00 UTC — before any announcement-day betting wave.\nconst CUTOFF_MS = 1779744000000;\n\nconst app = new Hono();\n\nconst fmt = (n: number) => n.toLocaleString(\"en-US\");\nconst monthName = (ym: string) => {\n const [y, mo] = ym.split(\"-\");\n return new Date(Number(y), Number(mo) - 1, 1)\n .toLocaleString(\"en-US\", { month: \"short\" }) + \" '\" + y.slice(2);\n};\n\nasync function fetchAllBets(contractId: string) {\n const all: any[] = [];\n let before: string | undefined;\n for (let i = 0; i < 50; i++) {\n let url =\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=${contractId}&limit=1000`;\n if (before) url += `&before=${before}`;\n const page: any[] = await fetch(url).then((r) => r.json());\n if (!page.length) break;\n all.push(...page);\n before = page[page.length - 1].id;\n if (page.length < 1000) break;\n }\n return all;\n}\n\n// The five most volatile names pre-announcement. Order is display order.\nconst FEATURED_ROCKY = [\n { name: \"Ricardo Pepi\" },\n { name: \"Alejandro Zendejas\" },\n { name: \"Diego Luna\" },\n { name: \"Tanner Tessmann\" },\n { name: \"Aidan Morris\" },\n];\n\nfunction sparkline(\n trace: Array<[number, number]>,\n color: string,\n w = 280,\n h = 44,\n) {\n if (trace.length < 2) return \"\";\n const tMin = trace[0][0], tMax = trace[trace.length - 1][0];\n const dur = (tMax - tMin) || 1;\n const pts = trace.map(([t, p]) =>\n `${((t - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1)},${(h - p * h).toFixed(1)}`\n ).join(\" \");\n // Build the area-fill polygon: poly + close to bottom corners\n const lastX = ((tMax - tMin) / dur * w).toFixed(1);\n const areaPts = `0,${h} ${pts} ${lastX},${h}`;\n return ``;\n}\n\napp.get(\"/\", async (c) => {\n const [market, bets]: [any, any[]] = await Promise.all([\n fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${MARKET_ID}`).then((r) =>\n r.json()\n ),\n fetchAllBets(MARKET_ID),\n ]);\n\n const preBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime < CUTOFF_MS);\n const postBets = bets.filter((b) => b.createdTime >= CUTOFF_MS);\n\n // Per-answer pre-announcement probability = latest probAfter before cutoff.\n const preProb: Record = {};\n // Per-answer full pre-cutoff trace for sparklines.\n const traces: Record> = {};\n for (\n const b of preBets.slice().sort((a, b) => a.createdTime - b.createdTime)\n ) {\n if (b.answerId && typeof b.probAfter === \"number\") {\n preProb[b.answerId] = b.probAfter;\n (traces[b.answerId] ||= []).push([b.createdTime, b.probAfter]);\n }\n }\n\n const snap = market.answers.map((a: any) => ({\n text: a.text,\n id: a.id,\n pre: preProb[a.id] ?? null,\n resolution: a.resolution,\n createdTime: a.createdTime,\n }));\n\n const yes = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"YES\");\n const no = snap.filter((s: any) => s.resolution === \"NO\");\n\n const yesRanked = [...yes].sort((a, b) => (b.pre ?? -1) - (a.pre ?? -1));\n const noRanked = [...no].filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null).sort((a, b) =>\n (b.pre ?? 0) - (a.pre ?? 0)\n );\n\n const yesWithPrice = yesRanked.filter((s: any) => s.pre !== null);\n const yesMin = yesWithPrice[yesWithPrice.length - 1];\n const yesMax = yesWithPrice[0];\n\n // Answers added by month\n const byMonth: Record = {};\n for (const a of market.answers) {\n if (!a.createdTime) continue;\n const ym = new Date(a.createdTime).toISOString().slice(0, 7);\n byMonth[ym] = (byMonth[ym] || 0) + 1;\n }\n const months = Object.entries(byMonth).sort(([a], [b]) =>\n a.localeCompare(b)\n );\n const maxMonth = Math.max(...months.map(([, v]) => v as number));\n\n const days = Math.round(\n (market.resolutionTime - market.createdTime) / 86400000,\n );\n\n const monthRows = months.map(([ym, n]) => `\n

${monthName(ym)}

${n}

${s.text}

${(s.pre * 100).toFixed(0)}%

${f.name}

${statusLabel}

${sparkline(trace, color)}

low ${(mn * 100).toFixed(0)}% · high ${\n (mx * 100).toFixed(0)\n }% · ${trace.length} bets pre-announcement

`;\n }).join(\"\");\n\n return c.html(`\n\n\n\n\nUSMNT 2026: the market picked 25 of 26\n\n\n\n\n\n

USMNT World Cup 2026 / Manifold Markets

The market picked 25 of 26.

Two years of betting on Pochettino's roster, frozen two days before the announcement.

\n\n

Volume

M$${\n fmt(Math.round(market.volume))\n }

mana traded

Bettors

${market.uniqueBettorCount}

unique participants

Days open

${days}

Mar '24 → Jun '26

Pre/post bets

${preBets.length}/${postBets.length}

before/after announcement

\n\n

The pre-announcement leaderboard

Red made the squad. Grey didn't.

\n\n

${rankRows}

Top 30 answers by pre-May-26 probability. The top 25 are all eventual YESes, save Chris Brady, who wasn't even an answer yet.

\n\n

Rocky journeys

The five most volatile names, every pre-announcement bet.

\n\n

${rockyRows}

Each sparkline traces a player's pre-May-26 probability over every bet placed on them. Dashed line is the 50% mark.

\n\n

Answers added per month

${monthRows}

41 names seeded at open; 29 more over two years.

\n\n

The YES band

${yesMin ? Math.round((yesMin.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}–${yesMax ? Math.round((yesMax.pre as number)*100) : \"?\"}%

lowest → highest pre-announcement pick

Bets in 24h

${postBets.length}

after the list dropped

Most bets, one trader

117

on this single market

Biggest grind

M$727

profit on M$17,629 staked (4%)

\n\n \n

\n\n`);\n});\n\nexport default app.fetch;\n","createdAt",["D",1783020307825],"branchVersion","branchId","beb0aa16-f460-410d-92a1-37a325c692b5","id","61d8c358-a414-4bc4-92ee-f129a9aac78c","usmnt-2026-recap",["D",1780891243747],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","USMNT 2026 Manifold roster market — post-resolution recap","imageUrl","9319c175-2593-4f88-ba21-04f2ef7b1c28","pinnedFileId","pinPreview",true,"pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","d663a026-6449-42f6-9156-1d4a2d64d38c","tursoName","tursoHostname","tursoMeasuredAt","pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_95":94,"_103":99},"org",{"_95":94,"_96":97,"_98":99,"_18":55,"_100":101,"_102":25},"branch",{"_13":14,"_32":85,"_43":42,"_86":44,"_87":-5,"_88":-5,"_89":-5,"_90":-5,"_91":-5,"_92":45,"_93":94},"isOwned","main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","dcm31","handle","displayName","Charlie","avatar","https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/3e904faa-3764-4629-c475-f561a49b0000/square512?exp=1789585199&sig=791f927e7effb459fa28d239d1d031174bf5fa1d08898fecc3c6ffbf23ca6003","tier","pro","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":150,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":31,"_57":58,"_59":-5,"_60":-5,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":-5,"_66":-5,"_67":-5,"_68":-5,"_69":70,"_71":70,"_72":73,"_74":73,"_75":73,"_76":70,"_77":70,"_78":151,"_80":152,"_82":153,"_84":25},"tree",[145],"files",[145],"counts",{"_134":62,"_135":136,"_137":62,"_138":139,"_140":141},"contents",[126],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_43":127,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_128":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_129":58,"_38":130,"_13":131,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_132":-5,"_27":133},"7fe9810f-6226-4004-9fec-886938c0c7b1","parentId","latest",["D",1783020307825],9,"label",[28],"pulls","branches",1,"forks","envVars",{"_142":62,"_144":62},"connections",{"_142":62,"_143":62},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_43":127,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_128":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_129":58,"_38":146,"_13":131,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_132":-5,"_147":148,"_27":149},["D",1783020307825],"children",[],[28],["D",1780891243747],{"_95":94,"_103":99},{"_95":94,"_96":97,"_98":99,"_18":55,"_100":101,"_102":25},{"_13":14,"_32":85,"_43":42,"_86":44,"_87":-5,"_88":-5,"_89":-5,"_90":-5,"_91":-5,"_92":45,"_93":94},"ctx",{"_78":-5,"_123":187,"_188":189,"_190":191,"_192":25,"_193":25,"_194":25,"_195":58,"_196":-5,"_197":-7,"_198":-7,"_199":62,"_200":25,"_201":25,"_202":-5,"_203":25,"_204":25,"_205":25,"_206":-5},"ENV",{"_158":159,"_160":161,"_162":85,"_163":164,"_165":166,"_167":168,"_169":170,"_171":172,"_173":174,"_175":176,"_177":178,"_179":180,"_181":182,"_183":184,"_185":186},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","fdb67791413f4386b4dbf18f354029a617f6160f","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Diff · v10