🖤 Black Hat Hydrology Lab

San Juan River forecast experiment · Current season ${current} · ser

\n${body}\n

Raw JSON

\n`;\n}\n\nexport default async function handler(req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n const current = openCurrentSeason();\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/data\") {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(predictions(), null, 2), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" },\n });\n }\n\n // Admin actions — protected by a shared secret when BH_LAB_SECRET is set.\n if (req.method === \"POST\" && url.pathname === \"/api/predict\") {\n if (!auth(req)) return new Response(\"Unauthorized\", { status: 401 });\n const body = await req.json();\n const out = lockPrediction(body);\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(out), { status: out.ok ? 201 : 400,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" } });\n }\n if (req.method === \"POST\" && url.pathname === \"/api/score\") {\n if (!auth(req)) return new Response(\"Unauthorized\", { status: 401 });\n const body = await req.json();\n const out = scorePrediction(body.issue_date, body.actual, body.score);\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(out), { status: out.ok ? 200 : 400,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" } });\n }\n\n const records = predictions();\n const bySeason = new Map();\n for (const r of records) {\n if (!bySeason.has(r.season as string)) bySeason.set(r.season as string, []);\n bySeason.get(r.season as string)!.push(r);\n }\n\n let body = `

Film room — previous season

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(current) ?? [], current)}

`;\n let closed = new Response(\"\", { status: 204 });\n for (const [season, recs] of bySeason) {\n if (season === current) continue;\n closed = null;\n body += `

${season} archived

${seasonTable(recs, season)}

`;\n }\n return new Response(html(records, current, body), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n}\n\nfunction seasonTable(recs, season) {\n if (!recs.length) return `

No predictions locked yet for ${season}.

`;\n return `` +\n recs.map((r) => {\n const s = r.score == null ? \"—\" : `= 0 ? \"win\" : \"loss\"}\">${r.score}`;\n return ``;\n }).join(\"\") + `

Issue	Forecast	Model	Score
${r.issue_date}	${r.forecast.headline}	${r.forecast.model_version}	${s}

`;\n}\n\nfunction auth(req: Request): boolean {\n const secret = Deno.env.get(\"BH_LAB_SECRET\");\n if (!secret) return true; // no secret configured → allow while building\n return req.headers.get(\"x-lab-secret\") === secret;\n}\n",[182],"897ff7c2-3743-4e65-9376-bbd7003740f8","lab.ts","30c7c606-aa20-11f1-9651-1607ee4eb77e",["D",1788719065897],"/**\n * Black Hat Hydrology Lab — automated San Juan River seasonal prediction tracker.\n *\n * Automatic lifecycle, year after year:\n * 1. A new season opens on October 1 (\"2025-26\", \"2026-27\", ...).\n * 2. Each prediction is locked on a fixed issue date — once locked it is\n * immutable (inputs + model version preserved, cannot be overwritten).\n * 3. When the season provides the answer, the result is scored and stored\n * alongside the original forecast.\n * 4. The previous (now-finished) season remains available as the \"film room.\"\n * 5. The public page serves all records read-only.\n */\nimport { Database } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\n// Project-scoped persistent SQLite store.\nexport const db = new Database(\"/blackhat.sqlite\");\ninit();\n\nfunction init() {\n db.exec(`\n CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS predictions (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n season TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_date TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,\n forecast TEXT NOT NULL, -- JSON: { headline, inputs, model_version }\n result TEXT, -- JSON: actual observation\n score REAL,\n created_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n scored_at TEXT\n );\n CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_season ON predictions (season);\n `);\n}\n\n// ---- Helpers ---------------------------------------------------------------\n\n/** Season slug from a date: Oct 2025 -> \"2025-26\" (seasons start Oct 1, UTC). */\nfunction seasonSlug(date = new Date()): string {\n const y = date.getUTCFullYear();\n return date.getUTCMonth() >= 9 ? `${y}-${(y + 1) % 100}` : `${y - 1}-${y % 100}`;\n}\n\n/** Season currently in effect today. Oct 1 rolls this over automatically. */\nfunction currentSeason(): string {\n return seasonSlug(new Date());\n}\n\n/** Lock a prediction on its fixed issue date. Refuses to overwrite once locked. */\nexport function lockPrediction(p: {\n issueDate: string; // ISO date (UTC) the prediction is issued on\n headline: string;\n inputs: object;\n modelVersion: string;\n}): { ok: boolean; id?: number; error?: string } {\n const season = seasonSlug(new Date(p.issueDate));\n const existing = db\n .query(\"SELECT id, locked FROM predictions WHERE season = ? AND issue_date = ?\", [\n season,\n p.issueDate,\n ])\n .next();\n if (existing && existing[1] === 1) {\n return { ok: false, id: Number(existing[0]), error: \"Prediction already locked — immutable.\" };\n }\n const forecast = JSON.stringify({\n headline: p.headline,\n inputs: p.inputs,\n model_version: p.modelVersion,\n });\n if (existing) {\n db.exec(\"UPDATE predictions SET forecast = ?, locked = 1 WHERE id = ?\", [\n forecast,\n Number(existing[0]),\n ]);\n return { ok: true, id: Number(existing[0]) };\n }\n const id = db.exec(\n \"INSERT INTO predictions (season, issue_date, locked, forecast, created_at) VALUES (?, ?, 1, ?, ?)\",\n [season, p.issueDate, forecast, new Date(p.issueDate).toISOString()],\n );\n return { ok: true, id: Number(id) };\n}\n\n/** Score a locked prediction once the season provides the answer. */\nexport function scorePrediction(\n issueDate: string,\n actual: object,\n score: number,\n): { ok: boolean; id?: number; error?: string } {\n const existing = db\n .query(\"SELECT id, locked FROM predictions WHERE season = ? AND issue_date = ?\", [\n seasonSlug(new Date(issueDate)),\n issueDate,\n ])\n .next();\n if (!existing) return { ok: false, error: \"Prediction not found.\" };\n if (existing[1] !== 1) return { ok: false, error: \"Prediction is not locked.\" };\n const id = Number(existing[0]);\n db.exec(\"UPDATE predictions SET result = ?, score = ?, scored_at = ? WHERE id = ?\", [\n JSON.stringify(actual),\n score,\n new Date().toISOString(),\n id,\n ]);\n return { ok: true, id };\n}\n\n/** All records (newest last) with JSON fields parsed. */\nfunction allPredictions() {\n return [...db.query(\"SELECT * FROM predictions ORDER BY issue_date\")].map((r) => ({\n id: r[0],\n season: r[1],\n issue_date: r[2],\n locked: r[3],\n forecast: JSON.parse(r[4] as string),\n result: r[5] ? JSON.parse(r[5] as string) : null,\n score: r[6],\n created_at: r[7],\n scored_at: r[8],\n }));\n}\n\n// ---- HTTP ------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nfunction layout(body: string): string {\n return `\n\nBlack Hat Hydrology Lab\n${body}`;\n}\n\nexport default async function handler(req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n\n // ---- Admin POST endpoints (write-only; guarded by secret when set) -------\n if (req.method === \"POST\" && url.pathname === \"/api/predict\") {\n if (!authorized(req)) return new Response(\"Unauthorized\", { status: 401 });\n const out = lockPrediction(await req.json());\n return jsonResponse(out, out.ok ? 201 : 400);\n }\n if (req.method === \"POST\" && url.pathname === \"/api/score\") {\n if (!authorized(req)) return new Response(\"Unauthorized\", { status: 401 });\n const { issue_date, actual, score } = await req.json();\n const out = scorePrediction(issue_date, actual, score);\n return jsonResponse(out, out.ok ? 200 : 400);\n }\n\n // ---- Public read-only JSON feed ----\n if (url.pathname === \"/data\") {\n return jsonResponse({ current_season: currentSeason(), records: allPredictions() });\n }\n\n // ---- Public read-only page ----\n const current = currentSeason();\n const bySeason = new Map>>();\n for (const r of allPredictions()) {\n const list = bySeason.get(r.season as string) ?? [];\n list.push(r);\n bySeason.set(r.season as string, list);\n }\n\n let body = `

🖤 Black Hat Hydrology Lab

San Juan River forecast experiment · Current season ${current} ·\nraw JSON

`;\n\n // Film room first: all completed seasons, most recent first.\n const completed = [...bySeason.keys()].filter((s) => s !== current).sort().reverse();\n for (const season of completed) {\n body +=\n `

Film room — ${season}

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(season)!, season)}

`;\n }\n // Current / active season last.\n body +=\n `

Current season — ${current}

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(current) ?? [], current)}

`;\n\n return new Response(layout(body), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n}\n\nfunction seasonTable(recs: Array>, season: string): string {\n if (!recs.length) return `

No predictions locked yet for ${season}.

`;\n const rows = recs\n .map((r) => {\n const f = r.forecast as { headline: string; model_version: string };\n const s = r.score == null\n ? \"—\"\n : `= 0 ? \"win\" : \"loss\"}\">${r.score}`;\n return `${r.issue_date}${f.headline}${f.model_version}${s}`;\n })\n .join(\"\");\n return `${rows}

Issue	Forecast	Model	Score

`;\n}\n\nfunction authorized(req: Request): boolean {\n const secret = Deno.env.get(\"BH_LAB_SECRET\");\n if (!secret) return true; // no secret set → allow while building\n return req.headers.get(\"x-lab-secret\") === secret;\n}\n\nfunction jsonResponse(data: unknown, status = 200): Response {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(data, null, 2), {\n status,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" },\n });\n}\n",[189],"d1a087f1-aff8-4075-92ce-e9744c49e34e","engine.ts","a6362ff6-ab9a-11f1-9797-1607ee4eb77e",26,["D",1788881615374],"import { CONFIG, IS_LIVE } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport { addDays, fixedIssueAt, mountainToUtc, waterYear } from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport { QUESTIONS } from \"./questions.ts\";\nimport { fetchBasinSnapshot } from \"./sources.ts\";\nimport {\n cachePublicFeed,\n ensureSeason,\n finalizePrediction,\n getPrediction,\n initDb,\n listPredictions,\n lockPrediction,\n recentRuns,\n recordEvent,\n recordRun,\n} from \"./storage.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, QuestionDefinition } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction canonical(value: any): string {\n if (Array.isArray(value)) return `[${value.map(canonical).join(\",\")}]`;\n if (value && typeof value === \"object\") {\n return `{${\n Object.keys(value).sort().map((key) =>\n `${JSON.stringify(key)}:${canonical(value[key])}`\n ).join(\",\")\n }}`;\n }\n return JSON.stringify(value);\n}\n\nasync function sha256(value: string): Promise {\n const digest = await crypto.subtle.digest(\n \"SHA-256\",\n new TextEncoder().encode(value),\n );\n return [...new Uint8Array(digest)].map((byte) =>\n byte.toString(16).padStart(2, \"0\")\n ).join(\"\");\n}\n\nfunction inputRecord(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n return {\n captured_at: snapshot.capturedAt.toISOString(),\n cutoff_at: snapshot.cutoffAt.toISOString(),\n current: {\n date: snapshot.current.date.toISOString(),\n value: snapshot.current.value,\n },\n features: snapshot.features,\n milestones: {\n runoff_year: m.runoffYear,\n first_400: m.first400 &&\n { date: m.first400.date.toISOString(), value: m.first400.value },\n peak_daily: m.peakDaily &&\n { date: m.peakDaily.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakDaily.value },\n peak_instant: m.peakInstant &&\n { date: m.peakInstant.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakInstant.value },\n tubing_trigger: m.tubingForecastTrigger &&\n {\n date: m.tubingForecastTrigger.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.tubingForecastTrigger.value,\n },\n tubing_opening: m.tubingOpening?.toISOString() || null,\n counts: m.counts,\n strength: m.strength,\n persistent_snow: m.persistentSnow &&\n {\n date: m.persistentSnow.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.persistentSnow.value,\n },\n peak_swe: m.peakSwe &&\n { date: m.peakSwe.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakSwe.value },\n },\n };\n}\n\nfunction dueAt(\n question: QuestionDefinition,\n runoffYear: number,\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n): Date | null {\n if (question.issueKind === \"fixed\") {\n return fixedIssueAt(runoffYear, question.issueMonth!, question.issueDay!);\n }\n return question.trigger?.(snapshot) || null;\n}\n\nfunction publicPrediction(row: any): Record {\n return {\n number: Number(row.question_number),\n key: row.question_key,\n title: row.title,\n issue_kind: row.issue_kind,\n issue_due_at: row.issue_due_at,\n locked_at: row.locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at: row.input_cutoff_at,\n model_version: row.model_version,\n prediction: JSON.parse(row.prediction_json),\n status: row.status,\n actual: row.actual_json ? JSON.parse(row.actual_json) : null,\n score: row.score,\n scored_at: row.scored_at,\n };\n}\n\nasync function refreshPublicCache(runoffYear: number): Promise {\n const live = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"live\");\n const shadow = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"shadow\");\n const runs = await recentRuns(5);\n const feed = {\n schema_version: 1,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n game_state: live.length ? \"live\" : \"shadow-testing\",\n model: MODEL_BUNDLE,\n updated_at: new Date().toISOString(),\n predictions: live.map(publicPrediction),\n shadow_summary: {\n locked: shadow.length,\n scored: shadow.filter((row) => row.score).length,\n },\n health: runs.map((run) => ({\n ran_at: run.ran_at,\n mode: run.mode,\n success: Boolean(run.success),\n message: run.message,\n })),\n };\n await cachePublicFeed(`scoreboard-${runoffYear}`, feed);\n await cachePublicFeed(\"scoreboard-current\", feed);\n}\n\nexport async function runAutomation(\n now = new Date(),\n): Promise> {\n await initDb();\n const mode = IS_LIVE ? \"live\" : \"shadow\";\n const runoffYear = waterYear(now);\n if (runoffYear < CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear) {\n // September is a preseason health check. It deliberately creates no locks,\n // but proves the official sources, models, database, cron and public cache work.\n try {\n const current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n const message =\n `Preseason ${mode} check passed. Water year ${CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear} becomes eligible on October 1.`;\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n preseason: true,\n water_year: CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear,\n message,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, `Preseason check failed: ${message}`);\n throw error;\n }\n }\n const openedAt = mountainToUtc(runoffYear - 1, 10, 1, 0);\n await ensureSeason(runoffYear, MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version, openedAt);\n let current: BasinSnapshot;\n try {\n current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, message);\n throw error;\n }\n\n const actions: string[] = [];\n const lockSnapshots = new Map();\n for (const question of QUESTIONS) {\n let stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n if (!stored) {\n const issueAt = dueAt(question, runoffYear, current);\n if (issueAt && now >= issueAt) {\n const ageHours = (now.getTime() - issueAt.getTime()) / 3_600_000;\n if (ageHours > CONFIG.fixedLockGraceHours) {\n actions.push(\n `P${question.number} needs review: issue window was missed`,\n );\n } else {\n const cacheKey = issueAt.toISOString();\n let lockSnapshot = lockSnapshots.get(cacheKey);\n if (!lockSnapshot) {\n lockSnapshot = await fetchBasinSnapshot(issueAt);\n lockSnapshots.set(cacheKey, lockSnapshot);\n }\n const prediction = question.calculate(lockSnapshot);\n const inputs = inputRecord(lockSnapshot);\n const predictionJson = canonical(prediction);\n const inputsJson = canonical(inputs);\n const inserted = await lockPrediction({\n water_year: runoffYear,\n question_number: question.number,\n question_key: question.key,\n title: question.title,\n mode,\n issue_kind: question.issueKind,\n issue_due_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n locked_at: now.toISOString(),\n input_cutoff_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n model_version: MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version,\n model_hash: MODEL_BUNDLE.sha256,\n prediction_json: predictionJson,\n inputs_json: inputsJson,\n inputs_hash: await sha256(inputsJson),\n source_status_json: canonical(lockSnapshot.sourceStatus),\n status: \"locked\",\n actual_json: null,\n score: null,\n scored_at: null,\n });\n if (inserted) {\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_lock_created`,\n now,\n { issue_at: issueAt.toISOString(), prediction },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} ${mode} lock created`);\n stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n }\n }\n }\n }\n if (stored && !stored.scored_at && question.final(current)) {\n const actual = question.actual(current);\n if (actual) {\n const prediction = JSON.parse(stored.prediction_json);\n const hit = question.score(prediction, actual);\n await finalizePrediction(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n mode,\n canonical(actual),\n hit,\n now,\n );\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_score_finalized`,\n now,\n { actual, score: hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\" },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} scored ${hit ? \"HIT\" : \"MISS\"}`);\n }\n }\n }\n const message = actions.length\n ? actions.join(\"; \")\n : \"Data refreshed; no lock or score was due.\";\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(runoffYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n actions,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n}",[195],"8a3817b0-14da-4f14-b47b-1034d4d5d5f8","dates.ts","8d25a690-ab9a-11f1-ade0-1607ee4eb77e",8,["D",1788881573051],"import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\n\nconst DAY = 86_400_000;\n\nexport function addDays(date: Date, days: number): Date {\n return new Date(date.getTime() + days * DAY);\n}\n\nexport function isoDay(date: Date): string {\n return date.toISOString().slice(0, 10);\n}\n\nexport function mountainParts(\n date: Date,\n): { year: number; month: number; day: number; hour: number } {\n const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat(\"en-US\", {\n timeZone: CONFIG.timeZone,\n year: \"numeric\",\n month: \"numeric\",\n day: \"numeric\",\n hour: \"numeric\",\n hourCycle: \"h23\",\n }).formatToParts(date);\n const values = Object.fromEntries(\n parts.filter((part) => part.type !== \"literal\").map((\n part,\n ) => [part.type, Number(part.value)]),\n );\n return values as { year: number; month: number; day: number; hour: number };\n}\n\n// Converts a wall-clock time in America/Denver to UTC without requiring a date library.\nexport function mountainToUtc(\n year: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n hour = 0,\n minute = 0,\n): Date {\n let guess = new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, hour, minute));\n for (let attempt = 0; attempt < 3; attempt += 1) {\n const seen = mountainParts(guess);\n const wanted = Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, hour, minute);\n const actual = Date.UTC(\n seen.year,\n seen.month - 1,\n seen.day,\n seen.hour,\n minute,\n );\n guess = new Date(guess.getTime() + wanted - actual);\n }\n return guess;\n}\n\nexport function mountainCalendarDate(date: Date): Date {\n const p = mountainParts(date);\n return new Date(Date.UTC(p.year, p.month - 1, p.day, 12));\n}\n\nexport function waterYear(date: Date): number {\n const p = mountainParts(date);\n return p.month >= 10 ? p.year + 1 : p.year;\n}\n\nexport function fixedIssueAt(\n runoffYear: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n): Date {\n const year = month >= 10 ? runoffYear - 1 : runoffYear;\n return mountainToUtc(year, month, day, CONFIG.lockHourMountain);\n}\n\nexport function firstMondayOfSeptember(year: number): Date {\n const first = new Date(Date.UTC(year, 8, 1, 12));\n const offset = (8 - first.getUTCDay()) % 7;\n return addDays(first, offset);\n}\n\nexport function daysBetween(a: Date, b: Date): number {\n return Math.round(\n (mountainCalendarDate(a).getTime() - mountainCalendarDate(b).getTime()) /\n DAY,\n );\n}\n\nexport function afterMountainDay(\n date: Date,\n year: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n): boolean {\n return mountainCalendarDate(date) >\n new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, 23, 59, 59));\n}",[202],"751596ee-0bea-434d-8597-f7b381243827",["D",1788881618288],[28],"2e430288-2b75-40ad-8a18-d32903314145","config.ts","377dfa62-ab9a-11f1-ac1e-1607ee4eb77e",5,["D",1788881526228],"export const CONFIG = {\n username: \"pagosaoutside\",\n projectName: \"black-hat-hydrology\",\n timeZone: \"America/Denver\",\n lockHourMountain: 9,\n fixedLockGraceHours: 36,\n firstAutomatedWaterYear: 2027,\n // Leave this in shadow mode until the preseason checks have passed.\n mode: String(\n (globalThis as any).Deno?.env?.get?.(\"BLACK_HAT_MODE\") || \"shadow\",\n ).toLowerCase(),\n allowedOrigins: new Set([\n \"https://pagosaoutside.com\",\n \"https://www.pagosaoutside.com\",\n ]),\n usgsSite: \"09342500\",\n snotelStations: [\"840:CO:SNTL\", \"874:CO:SNTL\"],\n modelVersion: \"0.5.0-2027-game\",\n} as const;\n\nexport const IS_LIVE = CONFIG.mode === 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