[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_601":602,"_603":604},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_100":99,"_32":45,"_109":90,"_27":110,"_13":14,"_111":-5,"_11":112,"_113":114,"_115":116,"_117":118,"_119":120,"_20":-5,"_121":-5,"_122":-5,"_123":25,"_124":125,"_126":59,"_127":-5,"_128":-5,"_129":130},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":46,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":71,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_86":87,"_88":25},"version",150,"changes",[19],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_20":21,"_22":23,"_24":25,"_26":25,"_27":28,"_29":28},"file",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":14,"_41":42,"_24":25},"previous",{"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37},"deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","backup2-questions.ts","latestPath","fileId","ea85e900-ab9d-11f1-bc76-1607ee4eb77e","name","questions.ts","fileType","script","content","import { CONFIG, IS_LIVE } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport { addDays, fixedIssueAt, mountainToUtc, waterYear } from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport { QUESTIONS } from \"./questions.ts\";\nimport { fetchBasinSnapshot } from \"./sources.ts\";\nimport {\n cachePublicFeed,\n ensureSeason,\n finalizePrediction,\n getPrediction,\n initDb,\n listPredictions,\n lockPrediction,\n recentRuns,\n recordEvent,\n recordRun,\n} from \"./storage.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, QuestionDefinition } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction canonical(value: any): string {\n if (Array.isArray(value)) return `[${value.map(canonical).join(\",\")}]`;\n if (value && typeof value === \"object\") {\n return `{${\n Object.keys(value).sort().map((key) =>\n `${JSON.stringify(key)}:${canonical(value[key])}`\n ).join(\",\")\n }}`;\n }\n return JSON.stringify(value);\n}\n\nasync function sha256(value: string): Promise {\n const digest = await crypto.subtle.digest(\n \"SHA-256\",\n new TextEncoder().encode(value),\n );\n return [...new Uint8Array(digest)].map((byte) =>\n byte.toString(16).padStart(2, \"0\")\n ).join(\"\");\n}\n\nfunction inputRecord(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n return {\n captured_at: snapshot.capturedAt.toISOString(),\n cutoff_at: snapshot.cutoffAt.toISOString(),\n current: {\n date: snapshot.current.date.toISOString(),\n value: snapshot.current.value,\n },\n features: snapshot.features,\n milestones: {\n runoff_year: m.runoffYear,\n first_400: m.first400 &&\n { date: m.first400.date.toISOString(), value: m.first400.value },\n peak_daily: m.peakDaily &&\n { date: m.peakDaily.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakDaily.value },\n peak_instant: m.peakInstant &&\n { date: m.peakInstant.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakInstant.value },\n tubing_trigger: m.tubingForecastTrigger &&\n {\n date: m.tubingForecastTrigger.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.tubingForecastTrigger.value,\n },\n tubing_opening: m.tubingOpening?.toISOString() || null,\n counts: m.counts,\n strength: m.strength,\n persistent_snow: m.persistentSnow &&\n {\n date: m.persistentSnow.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.persistentSnow.value,\n },\n peak_swe: m.peakSwe &&\n { date: m.peakSwe.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakSwe.value },\n },\n };\n}\n\nfunction dueAt(\n question: QuestionDefinition,\n runoffYear: number,\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n): Date | null {\n if (question.issueKind === \"fixed\") {\n return fixedIssueAt(runoffYear, question.issueMonth!, question.issueDay!);\n }\n return question.trigger?.(snapshot) || null;\n}\n\nfunction publicPrediction(row: any): Record {\n return {\n number: Number(row.question_number),\n key: row.question_key,\n title: row.title,\n issue_kind: row.issue_kind,\n issue_due_at: row.issue_due_at,\n locked_at: row.locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at: row.input_cutoff_at,\n model_version: row.model_version,\n prediction: JSON.parse(row.prediction_json),\n status: row.status,\n actual: row.actual_json ? JSON.parse(row.actual_json) : null,\n score: row.score,\n scored_at: row.scored_at,\n };\n}\n\nasync function refreshPublicCache(runoffYear: number): Promise {\n const live = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"live\");\n const shadow = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"shadow\");\n const runs = await recentRuns(5);\n const feed = {\n schema_version: 1,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n game_state: live.length ? \"live\" : \"shadow-testing\",\n model: MODEL_BUNDLE,\n updated_at: new Date().toISOString(),\n predictions: live.map(publicPrediction),\n shadow_summary: {\n locked: shadow.length,\n scored: shadow.filter((row) => row.score).length,\n },\n health: runs.map((run) => ({\n ran_at: run.ran_at,\n mode: run.mode,\n success: Boolean(run.success),\n message: run.message,\n })),\n };\n await cachePublicFeed(`scoreboard-${runoffYear}`, feed);\n await cachePublicFeed(\"scoreboard-current\", feed);\n}\n\nexport async function runAutomation(\n now = new Date(),\n): Promise> {\n await initDb();\n const mode = IS_LIVE ? \"live\" : \"shadow\";\n const runoffYear = waterYear(now);\n if (runoffYear < CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear) {\n // September is a preseason health check. It deliberately creates no locks,\n // but proves the official sources, models, database, cron and public cache work.\n try {\n const current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n const message =\n `Preseason ${mode} check passed. Water year ${CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear} becomes eligible on October 1.`;\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n preseason: true,\n water_year: CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear,\n message,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, `Preseason check failed: ${message}`);\n throw error;\n }\n }\n const openedAt = mountainToUtc(runoffYear - 1, 10, 1, 0);\n await ensureSeason(runoffYear, MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version, openedAt);\n let current: BasinSnapshot;\n try {\n current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, message);\n throw error;\n }\n\n const actions: string[] = [];\n const lockSnapshots = new Map();\n for (const question of QUESTIONS) {\n let stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n if (!stored) {\n const issueAt = dueAt(question, runoffYear, current);\n if (issueAt && now >= issueAt) {\n const ageHours = (now.getTime() - issueAt.getTime()) / 3_600_000;\n if (ageHours > CONFIG.fixedLockGraceHours) {\n actions.push(\n `P${question.number} needs review: issue window was missed`,\n );\n } else {\n const cacheKey = issueAt.toISOString();\n let lockSnapshot = lockSnapshots.get(cacheKey);\n if (!lockSnapshot) {\n lockSnapshot = await fetchBasinSnapshot(issueAt);\n lockSnapshots.set(cacheKey, lockSnapshot);\n }\n const prediction = question.calculate(lockSnapshot);\n const inputs = inputRecord(lockSnapshot);\n const predictionJson = canonical(prediction);\n const inputsJson = canonical(inputs);\n const inserted = await lockPrediction({\n water_year: runoffYear,\n question_number: question.number,\n question_key: question.key,\n title: question.title,\n mode,\n issue_kind: question.issueKind,\n issue_due_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n locked_at: now.toISOString(),\n input_cutoff_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n model_version: MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version,\n model_hash: MODEL_BUNDLE.sha256,\n prediction_json: predictionJson,\n inputs_json: inputsJson,\n inputs_hash: await sha256(inputsJson),\n source_status_json: canonical(lockSnapshot.sourceStatus),\n status: \"locked\",\n actual_json: null,\n score: null,\n scored_at: null,\n });\n if (inserted) {\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_lock_created`,\n now,\n { issue_at: issueAt.toISOString(), prediction },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} ${mode} lock created`);\n stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n }\n }\n }\n }\n if (stored && !stored.scored_at && question.final(current)) {\n const actual = question.actual(current);\n if (actual) {\n const prediction = JSON.parse(stored.prediction_json);\n const hit = question.score(prediction, actual);\n await finalizePrediction(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n mode,\n canonical(actual),\n hit,\n now,\n );\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_score_finalized`,\n now,\n { actual, score: hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\" },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} scored ${hit ? \"HIT\" : \"MISS\"}`);\n }\n }\n }\n const message = actions.length\n ? actions.join(\"; \")\n : \"Data refreshed; no lock or score was due.\";\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(runoffYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n actions,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n}\nimport { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n daysBetween,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n mountainToUtc,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport {\n clamp,\n runRightNowModel,\n tubingOpeningForecast,\n} from \"./model-runtime.ts\";\nimport type {\n BasinSnapshot,\n PredictionValue,\n QuestionDefinition,\n} from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction context(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n const today = mountainCalendarDate(snapshot.cutoffAt);\n const daysLeft = Math.max(\n 0,\n Math.ceil((m.laborDay.getTime() - today.getTime()) / 86_400_000),\n );\n return {\n ...snapshot.features,\n count300: m.counts.p300,\n count600: m.counts.p600,\n count800: m.counts.p800,\n countTubing: m.counts.tubing,\n daysLeft,\n };\n}\n\nfunction requiredModel(name: string, snapshot: BasinSnapshot): number {\n const value = runRightNowModel(name, context(snapshot));\n if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n throw new Error(`Model ${name} could not produce a prediction`);\n }\n return Number(value);\n}\n\nfunction predictionDate(\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n model: string,\n maximumDays: number,\n): Date {\n const days = Math.round(\n clamp(requiredModel(model, snapshot), 0, maximumDays),\n );\n return addDays(mountainCalendarDate(snapshot.cutoffAt), days);\n}\n\nfunction countRemainingTubingDays(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): number | null {\n const opening = snapshot.milestones.tubingOpening;\n if (!opening) return null;\n const start = addDays(mountainCalendarDate(opening), 1);\n return snapshot.dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= snapshot.milestones.laborDay &&\n item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n ).length;\n}\n\nconst dateActual = (date: Date | null, key = \"date\"): PredictionValue | null =>\n date ? { [key]: date.toISOString() } : null;\nconst dateHit = (\n prediction: PredictionValue,\n actual: PredictionValue,\n tolerance: number,\n key = \"date\",\n) =>\n Math.abs(\n daysBetween(\n new Date(String(prediction[key])),\n new Date(String(actual[key])),\n ),\n ) <= tolerance;\nconst numberHit = (\n prediction: PredictionValue,\n actual: PredictionValue,\n tolerance: (actual: number) => number,\n key = \"value\",\n) =>\n Math.abs(Number(prediction[key]) - Number(actual[key])) <=\n tolerance(Number(actual[key]));\n\nexport const QUESTIONS: QuestionDefinition[] = [\n {\n number: 1,\n key: \"persistent-snow\",\n title: \"First persistent headwater snowpack\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 10,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: predictionDate(s, \"persistent\", 100).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.persistentSnow?.date || null),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.persistentSnow),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 14),\n },\n {\n number: 2,\n key: \"peak-swe\",\n title: \"Peak headwater snowpack\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 2,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n value: Math.round(\n Math.max(\n s.milestones.peakSwe?.value || 0,\n requiredModel(\"peak_swe\", s),\n ) * 10,\n ) / 10,\n unit: \"in\",\n }),\n actual: (s) =>\n s.milestones.peakSwe\n ? {\n value: s.milestones.peakSwe.value,\n date: s.milestones.peakSwe.date.toISOString(),\n unit: \"in\",\n }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.milestones.peakSweLikelyPassed,\n score: (p, a) => numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(2, value * 0.2)),\n },\n {\n number: 3,\n key: \"first-400\",\n title: \"First 400+ CFS day\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 3,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: predictionDate(s, \"first400\", 80).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.first400?.date || null),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.first400),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 10),\n },\n {\n number: 4,\n key: \"season-strength\",\n title: \"May–June rafting-season strength\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 4,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n value: Math.max(0, Math.round(requiredModel(\"river_strength\", s))),\n unit: \"cfs_average\",\n }),\n actual: (s) =>\n Number.isFinite(s.milestones.strength)\n ? { value: s.milestones.strength, unit: \"cfs_average\" }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.cutoffAt > mountainToUtc(s.milestones.runoffYear, 7, 1, 0),\n score: (p, a) => numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(100, value * 0.3)),\n },\n {\n number: 5,\n key: \"spring-peak\",\n title: \"Spring peak flow\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 4,\n issueDay: 15,\n calculate: (s) => {\n const date = predictionDate(s, \"spring_peak_days\", 70);\n const minutes =\n Math.round(Number(MODEL_BUNDLE.seasonal_peak_time_minutes_p50) / 15) *\n 15;\n const minuteOfDay = ((minutes % 1440) + 1440) % 1440;\n const timestamp = mountainToUtc(\n date.getUTCFullYear(),\n date.getUTCMonth() + 1,\n date.getUTCDate(),\n Math.floor(minuteOfDay / 60),\n minuteOfDay % 60,\n );\n const flow = Math.round(\n Math.max(\n s.current.value,\n s.milestones.peakDaily?.value || 0,\n requiredModel(\"spring_peak_flow\", s),\n ),\n );\n return { timestamp: timestamp.toISOString(), value: flow, unit: \"cfs\" };\n },\n actual: (s) =>\n s.milestones.peakInstant\n ? {\n timestamp: s.milestones.peakInstant.date.toISOString(),\n value: s.milestones.peakInstant.value,\n unit: \"cfs\",\n }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.cutoffAt > mountainToUtc(s.milestones.runoffYear, 8, 1, 0),\n score: (p, a) => {\n const hours = Math.abs(\n new Date(String(p.timestamp)).getTime() -\n new Date(String(a.timestamp)).getTime(),\n ) / 3_600_000;\n return hours <= 168 &&\n numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(250, value * 0.3));\n },\n },\n {\n number: 6,\n key: \"rafting-days\",\n title: \"Rafting-flow days\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 5,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n p300: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p300, requiredModel(\"days_ge_300\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p300,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n p600: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p600, requiredModel(\"days_ge_600\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p600,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n p800: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p800, requiredModel(\"days_ge_800\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p800,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n }),\n actual: (s) => ({ ...s.milestones.counts }),\n final: (s) =>\n s.cutoffAt > addDays(firstMondayOfSeptember(s.milestones.runoffYear), 1),\n score: (p, a) =>\n [\"p300\", \"p600\", \"p800\"].filter((key) =>\n Math.abs(Number(p[key]) - Number(a[key])) <= 10\n ).length >= 2,\n },\n {\n number: 7,\n key: \"tubing-opening\",\n title: \"Tubing Season Opening Day\",\n issueKind: \"event\",\n trigger: (s) => s.milestones.tubingForecastTrigger?.date || null,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: tubingOpeningForecast(s.features, s.cutoffAt).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.tubingOpening),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.tubingOpening),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 7),\n },\n {\n number: 8,\n key: \"remaining-tubing-days\",\n title: \"Remaining tubing-range days\",\n issueKind: \"event\",\n trigger: (s) => s.milestones.tubingOpening,\n calculate: (s) => {\n const observed = countRemainingTubingDays(s) || 0;\n const preOpeningDays = Math.max(0, s.milestones.counts.tubing - observed);\n const allSeasonEstimate = Math.max(\n observed,\n requiredModel(\"tubing_days\", s) - preOpeningDays,\n );\n return {\n value: Math.round(\n clamp(allSeasonEstimate, observed, observed + context(s).daysLeft),\n ),\n unit: \"days\",\n };\n },\n actual: (s) => {\n const value = countRemainingTubingDays(s);\n return value === null ? null : { value, unit: \"days\" };\n },\n final: (s) =>\n s.cutoffAt > addDays(firstMondayOfSeptember(s.milestones.runoffYear), 1),\n score: (p, a) => Math.abs(Number(p.value) - Number(a.value)) <= 10,\n },\n];\nimport { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n isoDay,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n waterYear,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, FlowPoint, Milestones, Snotel } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nconst average = (values: unknown[]): number | null => {\n const valid = values.map(Number).filter(Number.isFinite);\n return valid.length\n ? valid.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / valid.length\n : null;\n};\n\nasync function fetchJson(url: string, timeout = 20_000): Promise {\n const controller = new AbortController();\n const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeout);\n try {\n const response = await fetch(url, {\n signal: controller.signal,\n headers: { Accept: \"application/json\" },\n });\n if (!response.ok) {\n const parsed = new URL(url);\n throw new Error(\n `${parsed.hostname}${parsed.pathname} returned ${response.status}`,\n );\n }\n return await response.json();\n } finally {\n clearTimeout(timer);\n }\n}\n\nfunction parseUsgs(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): FlowPoint[] {\n const series = payload?.value?.timeSeries?.[0]?.values?.[0]?.value || [];\n return series.map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(item.dateTime),\n value: Number(item.value),\n }))\n .filter((item: FlowPoint) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value) && item.value >= 0\n )\n .sort((a: FlowPoint, b: FlowPoint) => a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime());\n}\n\nfunction parseSnotel(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): Snotel {\n const output: Snotel = {};\n for (const station of payload || []) {\n const stationId = String(station.stationTriplet);\n output[stationId] ||= {};\n for (const series of station.data || []) {\n const code = series.stationElement?.elementCode;\n if (!code) continue;\n output[stationId][code] = (series.values || []).map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(`${item.date}T12:00:00Z`),\n value: Number(item.value),\n median: item.median === null || item.median === undefined\n ? null\n : Number(item.median),\n })).filter((item: any) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n }\n }\n return output;\n}\n\nfunction latestAtOrBefore(\n points: T[],\n date: Date,\n): T | null {\n const eligible = (points || []).filter((point) => point.date <= date);\n return eligible.length ? eligible[eligible.length - 1] : null;\n}\n\nfunction stationAverage(\n snotel: Snotel,\n element: string,\n date: Date,\n field: \"value\" | \"median\" = \"value\",\n): number | null {\n return average(\n Object.values(snotel).map((station) =>\n (latestAtOrBefore(station[element] || [], date) as any)?.[field]\n ),\n );\n}\n\nfunction waterYearDay(date: Date): number {\n const year = date.getUTCMonth() >= 9\n ? date.getUTCFullYear()\n : date.getUTCFullYear() - 1;\n return Math.round(\n (Date.UTC(date.getUTCFullYear(), date.getUTCMonth(), date.getUTCDate()) -\n Date.UTC(year, 9, 1)) / 86_400_000,\n );\n}\n\nfunction buildFeatures(\n flowDaily: FlowPoint[],\n currentFlow: number,\n snotel: Snotel,\n now: Date,\n): Record {\n const date7 = addDays(now, -7);\n const date30 = addDays(now, -30);\n const recent7 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const recent30 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date30 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const flow7Ago = latestAtOrBefore(flowDaily, date7)?.value ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean7 = average(recent7) ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean30 = average(recent30) ?? flowMean7;\n const swe = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now) ?? 0;\n const sweMedian = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now, \"median\") ?? 0;\n const swe7Ago = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date7) ?? swe;\n const sweRatio = sweMedian > 0.05\n ? Math.min(3, Math.max(0, swe / sweMedian))\n : swe <= 0.05\n ? 0\n : 3;\n const stationIds = Object.keys(snotel);\n const temperatures: number[] = [];\n for (const id of stationIds) {\n for (const point of snotel[id].TAVG || []) {\n if (point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now) {\n temperatures.push(point.value);\n }\n }\n }\n const temp7 = average(temperatures) ?? 32;\n const precipitationChange = (startDate: Date) =>\n average(stationIds.map((id) => {\n const current = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], now)?.value;\n const earlier = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], startDate)?.value;\n return Number.isFinite(current) && Number.isFinite(earlier)\n ? Math.max(0, Number(current) - Number(earlier))\n : null;\n })) ?? 0;\n const precip7 = precipitationChange(date7);\n const precip30 = precipitationChange(date30);\n const snowPresent = swe > 0.05 ? 1 : 0;\n const angle = 2 * Math.PI * waterYearDay(now) / 365.25;\n return {\n log_flow: Math.log1p(currentFlow),\n log_flow_mean_7d: Math.log1p(flowMean7),\n log_flow_mean_30d: Math.log1p(flowMean30),\n relative_flow_change_7d: (currentFlow - flow7Ago) /\n (Math.abs(flowMean7) + 30),\n swe_in: swe,\n swe_ratio: sweRatio,\n swe_change_7d: swe - swe7Ago,\n temperature_scaled: (temp7 - 32) / 20,\n prec_total_7d: precip7,\n prec_total_30d: precip30,\n snow_present: snowPresent,\n season_sin: Math.sin(angle),\n season_cos: Math.cos(angle),\n season_sin_2: Math.sin(2 * angle),\n season_cos_2: Math.cos(2 * angle),\n melt_pressure: swe * Math.max(temp7 - 32, 0) / 100,\n rain_without_snow: precip7 * (1 - snowPresent),\n current_flow: currentFlow,\n swe_median: sweMedian,\n temp_7d: temp7,\n precip_7d: precip7,\n };\n}\n\nasync function fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n runoffYear: number,\n cutoffAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n const start = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1));\n const end = new Date(\n Math.min(cutoffAt.getTime(), Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59)),\n );\n const candidate = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= end\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n if (!candidate) return null;\n const url =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, -1))\n }&endDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, 2))\n }¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const values = parseUsgs(await fetchJson(url), cutoffAt);\n return values.reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n}\n\nfunction findTubingOpening(\n series: FlowPoint[],\n after: Date | null,\n): Date | null {\n if (!after) return null;\n const ordered = series.filter((item) => item.date > after).sort((a, b) =>\n a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime()\n );\n for (let index = 0; index < ordered.length; index += 1) {\n const endPoint = ordered[index];\n const startTime = endPoint.date.getTime() - 24 * 3_600_000;\n const window = ordered.filter((item) =>\n item.date.getTime() >= startTime && item.date <= endPoint.date\n );\n if (window.length < 4) continue;\n if (\n window.at(-1)!.date.getTime() - window[0].date.getTime() < 23 * 3_600_000\n ) continue;\n if (window.every((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400)) {\n return endPoint.date;\n }\n }\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n instantaneous: FlowPoint[],\n snotel: Snotel,\n current: FlowPoint,\n peakInstant: FlowPoint | null,\n): Milestones {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(current.date);\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const springStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 2, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowEnd = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59));\n const recreationStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 4, 1, 12));\n const laborDay = firstMondayOfSeptember(runoffYear);\n laborDay.setUTCHours(23, 59, 59, 999);\n const waterYearDaily = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= waterYearStart && item.date <= current.date\n );\n const springDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) => item.date >= springStart);\n const first400 = springDaily.find((item) => item.value >= 400) || null;\n const peakDaily = springDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= peakWindowStart && item.date <= peakWindowEnd\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeak = peakDaily\n ? Math.floor(\n (current.date.getTime() - peakDaily.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000,\n )\n : 0;\n const dropFromPeak = peakDaily?.value\n ? 1 - current.value / peakDaily.value\n : 0;\n const peakFlowLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakDaily && daysSincePeak >= 6 && dropFromPeak >= 0.18,\n );\n let tubingForecastTrigger: FlowPoint | null = null;\n if (peakDaily) {\n const peakIndex = springDaily.findIndex((item) =>\n isoDay(item.date) === isoDay(peakDaily.date) &&\n item.value === peakDaily.value\n );\n for (\n let index = Math.max(2, peakIndex + 1);\n index < springDaily.length;\n index += 1\n ) {\n const item = springDaily[index];\n const fallingThreeDay = item.value < springDaily[index - 2].value;\n const eligible = peakDaily.value >= 800\n ? item.value < 800\n : peakFlowLikelyPassed;\n if (eligible && fallingThreeDay) {\n tubingForecastTrigger = item;\n break;\n }\n }\n }\n const dailyTubingFallback = peakDaily\n ? springDaily.find((item) =>\n item.date > peakDaily.date && item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n )?.date || null\n : null;\n const tubingOpening =\n findTubingOpening(instantaneous, peakDaily?.date || null) ||\n dailyTubingFallback;\n const seasonDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart && item.date <= laborDay &&\n item.date <= current.date\n );\n const counts = {\n p300: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 300).length,\n p600: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 600).length,\n p800: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 800).length,\n tubing:\n seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400).length,\n };\n const strengthDays = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart &&\n item.date <= new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 5, 30, 23, 59))\n );\n const strength = average(strengthDays.map((item) => item.value));\n const snowDates = [\n ...new Set(\n Object.values(snotel).flatMap((station) =>\n (station.WTEQ || []).map((item) => isoDay(item.date))\n ),\n ),\n ]\n .map((value) => new Date(`${value}T12:00:00Z`)).filter((date) =>\n date >= waterYearStart && date <= current.date\n ).sort((a, b) => a.getTime() - b.getTime());\n const snowSeries = snowDates.map((date) => ({\n date,\n value: stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date),\n }))\n .filter((item): item is { date: Date; value: number } =>\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n let persistentSnow = null;\n for (let index = 0; index <= snowSeries.length - 7; index += 1) {\n const window = snowSeries.slice(index, index + 7);\n if (window[0].value >= 1 && window.every((item) => item.value >= 0.5)) {\n persistentSnow = window[0];\n break;\n }\n }\n const peakSwe = snowSeries.reduce<{ date: Date; value: number } | null>(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeakSwe = peakSwe\n ? Math.floor((current.date.getTime() - peakSwe.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000)\n : 0;\n const currentSwe = snowSeries.at(-1)?.value || 0;\n const peakSweLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakSwe && peakSwe.value >= 1 && daysSincePeakSwe >= 14 &&\n currentSwe <= peakSwe.value * 0.7,\n );\n return {\n runoffYear,\n laborDay,\n first400,\n peakDaily,\n peakInstant,\n peakFlowLikelyPassed,\n tubingForecastTrigger,\n tubingOpening,\n counts,\n strength,\n persistentSnow,\n peakSwe,\n peakSweLikelyPassed,\n };\n}\n\nexport async function fetchBasinSnapshot(\n cutoffAt = new Date(),\n): Promise {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(cutoffAt);\n // Models use 7- and 30-day history. Starting 45 days before the water year\n // also prevents the October 1 lock from running with an empty daily series.\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const start = isoDay(addDays(waterYearStart, -45));\n const end = isoDay(cutoffAt);\n const dailyUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${start}&endDT=${end}¶meterCd=00060&statCd=00003&siteStatus=all`;\n const instantUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&period=P60D¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const stationParam = encodeURIComponent(CONFIG.snotelStations.join(\",\"));\n const snotelUrl =\n `https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdbRestApi/services/v1/data?stationTriplets=${stationParam}&elements=WTEQ%2CSNWD%2CPREC%2CTAVG&duration=DAILY&beginDate=${start}&endDate=${end}&periodRef=END¢ralTendencyType=MEDIAN&returnFlags=false&returnOriginalValues=false&returnSuspectData=false`;\n const [dailyPayload, instantPayload, snowPayload] = await Promise.all([\n fetchJson(dailyUrl),\n fetchJson(instantUrl),\n fetchJson(snotelUrl),\n ]);\n const dailyFlow = parseUsgs(dailyPayload, cutoffAt);\n const instantaneous = parseUsgs(instantPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!dailyFlow.length || !instantaneous.length) {\n throw new Error(\"The Pagosa USGS gauge did not return enough data\");\n }\n const snotel = parseSnotel(snowPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!Object.keys(snotel).length) {\n throw new Error(\"The headwater SNOTEL stations did not return enough data\");\n }\n const latestSnotelAt = Object.values(snotel)\n .flatMap((station) => Object.values(station).flat())\n .reduce(\n (latest, point) => !latest || point.date > latest ? point.date : latest,\n null,\n );\n const current = instantaneous.at(-1)!;\n const features = buildFeatures(\n dailyFlow,\n current.value,\n snotel,\n current.date,\n );\n const peakInstant = await fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow,\n runoffYear,\n cutoffAt,\n ).catch(() => null);\n const milestones = deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow,\n instantaneous,\n snotel,\n current,\n peakInstant,\n );\n return {\n capturedAt: new Date(),\n cutoffAt,\n current,\n instantaneous,\n dailyFlow,\n snotel,\n features,\n milestones,\n sourceStatus: {\n usgs_site: CONFIG.usgsSite,\n usgs_latest_at: current.date.toISOString(),\n usgs_daily_points: dailyFlow.length,\n usgs_instant_points: instantaneous.length,\n snotel_stations: Object.keys(snotel),\n snotel_latest_day: latestSnotelAt ? isoDay(latestSnotelAt) : null,\n },\n };\n}\n// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const row: any = result.rows[0];\n return row\n ? {\n value: JSON.parse(String(row.value_json)),\n updatedAt: String(row.updated_at),\n }\n : null;\n}","createdAt",["D",1788883409099],"branchVersion","branchId","70817041-1dfa-4778-885e-ac83be02b1d0","id","f84d0eeb-ceea-4772-8eb3-fa7a8cedbc13","black-hat-hydrology",["D",1788718960405],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","San Juan River seasonal prediction tracker","imageUrl","66be13f3-dd08-4f8a-aca1-8697006c9a46","pinnedFileId","0210c8ee-aa20-11f1-a516-1607ee4eb77e","pinPreview",true,"pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","01a077f2-9ad7-764c-8f6b-583a36c43414","tursoName","f84d0eebceea47728eb3fa7a8cedbc13","tursoHostname","f84d0eebceea47728eb3fa7a8cedbc13-val-town.aws-us-east-2.turso.io","tursoMeasuredAt",["D",1789575110896],"pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_100":99,"_108":104},"org",{"_100":99,"_101":102,"_103":104,"_18":55,"_105":106,"_107":25},"branch",{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":45,"_98":99},"isOwned",268,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","pagosaoutside","handle","displayName","Pagosa Outside","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLkPUw3N28PFDWb5so2_Azzb6wOyGiti-gB56AMhHTn6R7IXJA6Ug=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":596,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":597,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":598,"_84":599,"_86":600,"_88":25},"tree",[439,440,441,442,443,444,445,446,447,448,449,450,451,452,453,454,455,456,457,458,459,460,461,462,463,464,465,466,467,468,469,470,471,472,473,474,475,476,477],"files",[439,440,441,442,443,444,445,446,447,448,449,450,451,452,453,454,455,456,457,458,459,460,461,462,463,464,465,466,467,468,469,470,471,472,473,474,475,476,477],"counts",{"_429":63,"_430":237,"_431":63,"_432":433,"_434":435},"contents",[131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141,142,143,144,145,146,147,148,149,150,151,152,153,154,155,156,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164,165,166,167,168,169],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_43":423,"_32":424,"_30":425,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":426,"_175":59,"_38":427,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":338,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":428},{"_43":417,"_32":418,"_30":419,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":420,"_175":59,"_38":421,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":422},{"_43":411,"_32":412,"_30":413,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":414,"_175":59,"_38":415,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":416},{"_43":405,"_32":406,"_30":407,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":408,"_175":59,"_38":409,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":410},{"_43":399,"_32":400,"_30":401,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":402,"_175":59,"_38":403,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":404},{"_43":393,"_32":394,"_30":395,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":396,"_175":59,"_38":397,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":398},{"_43":387,"_32":388,"_30":389,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":390,"_175":59,"_38":391,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":392},{"_43":381,"_32":382,"_30":383,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":384,"_175":59,"_38":385,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":386},{"_43":375,"_32":376,"_30":377,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":378,"_175":59,"_38":379,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":186,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":380},{"_43":369,"_32":370,"_30":371,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":372,"_175":59,"_38":373,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":374},{"_43":363,"_32":364,"_30":365,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":366,"_175":59,"_38":367,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":368},{"_43":360,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_175":59,"_38":361,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":362},{"_43":353,"_32":354,"_30":355,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":356,"_175":59,"_38":357,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":358,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":359},{"_43":346,"_32":347,"_30":348,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":349,"_175":59,"_38":350,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":351,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":352},{"_43":340,"_32":341,"_30":342,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":343,"_175":59,"_38":344,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":178,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":345},{"_43":333,"_32":334,"_30":335,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":336,"_175":59,"_38":337,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":338,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":339},{"_43":324,"_32":325,"_30":326,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":327,"_175":25,"_38":328,"_13":329,"_34":330,"_36":331,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":332},{"_43":318,"_32":319,"_30":320,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":321,"_175":59,"_38":322,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":316,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":323},{"_43":311,"_32":312,"_30":313,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":314,"_175":59,"_38":315,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":316,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":317},{"_43":305,"_32":306,"_30":307,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":308,"_175":59,"_38":309,"_13":215,"_34":35,"_36":303,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":310},{"_43":298,"_32":299,"_30":300,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":301,"_175":25,"_38":302,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":303,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":304},{"_43":292,"_32":293,"_30":294,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":295,"_175":59,"_38":296,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":297},{"_43":286,"_32":287,"_30":288,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":289,"_175":59,"_38":290,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":291},{"_43":280,"_32":281,"_30":282,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":283,"_175":59,"_38":284,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":285},{"_43":274,"_32":275,"_30":276,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":277,"_175":59,"_38":278,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":279},{"_43":267,"_32":268,"_30":269,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":270,"_175":25,"_38":271,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":272,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":273},{"_43":261,"_32":262,"_30":263,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":177,"_175":59,"_38":264,"_13":63,"_34":258,"_36":265,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":266},{"_43":253,"_32":254,"_30":57,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":255,"_175":25,"_38":256,"_13":257,"_34":258,"_36":259,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":260},{"_43":246,"_32":247,"_30":248,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":249,"_175":59,"_38":250,"_13":251,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":252},{"_43":239,"_32":240,"_30":241,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":242,"_175":25,"_38":243,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":245},{"_43":232,"_32":233,"_30":234,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":235,"_175":25,"_38":236,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":238},{"_43":225,"_32":226,"_30":227,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":228,"_175":59,"_38":229,"_13":215,"_34":35,"_36":230,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":231},{"_43":218,"_32":219,"_30":220,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":221,"_175":25,"_38":222,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":223,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":224},{"_43":210,"_32":211,"_30":212,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":213,"_175":59,"_38":214,"_13":215,"_34":35,"_36":216,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":217},{"_43":203,"_32":204,"_30":205,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":206,"_175":59,"_38":207,"_13":208,"_34":35,"_36":201,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":209},{"_43":196,"_32":197,"_30":198,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":199,"_175":59,"_38":200,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":201,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":202},{"_43":188,"_32":189,"_30":190,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":191,"_175":59,"_38":192,"_13":193,"_34":35,"_36":194,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":195},{"_43":181,"_32":182,"_30":183,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":184,"_175":59,"_38":185,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":186,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":187},{"_43":170,"_32":171,"_30":172,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":174,"_175":59,"_38":176,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":178,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_27":180},"752142de-63ba-40ff-92c7-26b4d01d0d9f","types.ts","656d2dcc-ab9e-11f1-b4be-1607ee4eb77e","parentId",110,"latest",["D",1788883223981],2,"export type FlowPoint = { date: Date; value: number };\nexport type SnowPoint = { date: Date; value: number; median?: number | null };\nexport type Snotel = Record>;\n\nexport type BasinSnapshot = {\n capturedAt: Date;\n cutoffAt: Date;\n current: FlowPoint;\n instantaneous: FlowPoint[];\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[];\n snotel: Snotel;\n features: Record;\n milestones: Milestones;\n sourceStatus: Record;\n};\n\nexport type Milestones = {\n runoffYear: number;\n laborDay: Date;\n first400: FlowPoint | null;\n peakDaily: FlowPoint | null;\n peakInstant: FlowPoint | null;\n peakFlowLikelyPassed: boolean;\n tubingForecastTrigger: FlowPoint | null;\n tubingOpening: Date | null;\n counts: { p300: number; p600: number; p800: number; tubing: number };\n strength: number | null;\n persistentSnow: SnowPoint | null;\n peakSwe: SnowPoint | null;\n peakSweLikelyPassed: boolean;\n};\n\nexport type PredictionValue = Record;\n\nexport type QuestionDefinition = {\n number: number;\n key: string;\n title: string;\n issueKind: \"fixed\" | \"event\";\n issueMonth?: number;\n issueDay?: number;\n trigger?: (snapshot: BasinSnapshot) => Date | null;\n calculate: (snapshot: BasinSnapshot) => PredictionValue;\n actual: (snapshot: BasinSnapshot) => PredictionValue | null;\n final: (snapshot: BasinSnapshot) => boolean;\n score: (prediction: PredictionValue, actual: PredictionValue) => boolean;\n};","label",[171],"21c090ef-62be-4050-8d72-5a81612ee9c3","storage.ts","cf66eefc-ab9e-11f1-91ac-1607ee4eb77e",145,["D",1788883402631],"// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const row: any = result.rows[0];\n return row\n ? {\n value: JSON.parse(String(row.value_json)),\n updatedAt: String(row.updated_at),\n }\n : null;\n}",[182],"1cee68bb-501e-42c3-b4e0-e9c6869d0c41","storage-old.ts","a3869a0c-ab9a-11f1-b55c-1607ee4eb77e",82,["D",1788882997593],4,"// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const row: any = result.rows[0];\n return row\n ? {\n value: JSON.parse(String(row.value_json)),\n updatedAt: String(row.updated_at),\n }\n : null;\n}\n\n// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const row: any = result.rows[0];\n return row\n ? {\n value: JSON.parse(String(row.value_json)),\n updatedAt: String(row.updated_at),\n }\n : null;\n}",[189],"e3291864-af50-4867-a46d-1dcd8a938dc0","sources.ts","d2a4f780-ab9e-11f1-9744-1607ee4eb77e",149,["D",1788883407435],"import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n isoDay,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n waterYear,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, FlowPoint, Milestones, Snotel } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nconst average = (values: unknown[]): number | null => {\n const valid = values.map(Number).filter(Number.isFinite);\n return valid.length\n ? valid.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / valid.length\n : null;\n};\n\nasync function fetchJson(url: string, timeout = 20_000): Promise {\n const controller = new AbortController();\n const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeout);\n try {\n const response = await fetch(url, {\n signal: controller.signal,\n headers: { Accept: \"application/json\" },\n });\n if (!response.ok) {\n const parsed = new URL(url);\n throw new Error(\n `${parsed.hostname}${parsed.pathname} returned ${response.status}`,\n );\n }\n return await response.json();\n } finally {\n clearTimeout(timer);\n }\n}\n\nfunction parseUsgs(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): FlowPoint[] {\n const series = payload?.value?.timeSeries?.[0]?.values?.[0]?.value || [];\n return series.map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(item.dateTime),\n value: Number(item.value),\n }))\n .filter((item: FlowPoint) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value) && item.value >= 0\n )\n .sort((a: FlowPoint, b: FlowPoint) => a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime());\n}\n\nfunction parseSnotel(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): Snotel {\n const output: Snotel = {};\n for (const station of payload || []) {\n const stationId = String(station.stationTriplet);\n output[stationId] ||= {};\n for (const series of station.data || []) {\n const code = series.stationElement?.elementCode;\n if (!code) continue;\n output[stationId][code] = (series.values || []).map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(`${item.date}T12:00:00Z`),\n value: Number(item.value),\n median: item.median === null || item.median === undefined\n ? null\n : Number(item.median),\n })).filter((item: any) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n }\n }\n return output;\n}\n\nfunction latestAtOrBefore(\n points: T[],\n date: Date,\n): T | null {\n const eligible = (points || []).filter((point) => point.date <= date);\n return eligible.length ? eligible[eligible.length - 1] : null;\n}\n\nfunction stationAverage(\n snotel: Snotel,\n element: string,\n date: Date,\n field: \"value\" | \"median\" = \"value\",\n): number | null {\n return average(\n Object.values(snotel).map((station) =>\n (latestAtOrBefore(station[element] || [], date) as any)?.[field]\n ),\n );\n}\n\nfunction waterYearDay(date: Date): number {\n const year = date.getUTCMonth() >= 9\n ? date.getUTCFullYear()\n : date.getUTCFullYear() - 1;\n return Math.round(\n (Date.UTC(date.getUTCFullYear(), date.getUTCMonth(), date.getUTCDate()) -\n Date.UTC(year, 9, 1)) / 86_400_000,\n );\n}\n\nfunction buildFeatures(\n flowDaily: FlowPoint[],\n currentFlow: number,\n snotel: Snotel,\n now: Date,\n): Record {\n const date7 = addDays(now, -7);\n const date30 = addDays(now, -30);\n const recent7 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const recent30 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date30 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const flow7Ago = latestAtOrBefore(flowDaily, date7)?.value ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean7 = average(recent7) ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean30 = average(recent30) ?? flowMean7;\n const swe = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now) ?? 0;\n const sweMedian = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now, \"median\") ?? 0;\n const swe7Ago = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date7) ?? swe;\n const sweRatio = sweMedian > 0.05\n ? Math.min(3, Math.max(0, swe / sweMedian))\n : swe <= 0.05\n ? 0\n : 3;\n const stationIds = Object.keys(snotel);\n const temperatures: number[] = [];\n for (const id of stationIds) {\n for (const point of snotel[id].TAVG || []) {\n if (point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now) {\n temperatures.push(point.value);\n }\n }\n }\n const temp7 = average(temperatures) ?? 32;\n const precipitationChange = (startDate: Date) =>\n average(stationIds.map((id) => {\n const current = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], now)?.value;\n const earlier = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], startDate)?.value;\n return Number.isFinite(current) && Number.isFinite(earlier)\n ? Math.max(0, Number(current) - Number(earlier))\n : null;\n })) ?? 0;\n const precip7 = precipitationChange(date7);\n const precip30 = precipitationChange(date30);\n const snowPresent = swe > 0.05 ? 1 : 0;\n const angle = 2 * Math.PI * waterYearDay(now) / 365.25;\n return {\n log_flow: Math.log1p(currentFlow),\n log_flow_mean_7d: Math.log1p(flowMean7),\n log_flow_mean_30d: Math.log1p(flowMean30),\n relative_flow_change_7d: (currentFlow - flow7Ago) /\n (Math.abs(flowMean7) + 30),\n swe_in: swe,\n swe_ratio: sweRatio,\n swe_change_7d: swe - swe7Ago,\n temperature_scaled: (temp7 - 32) / 20,\n prec_total_7d: precip7,\n prec_total_30d: precip30,\n snow_present: snowPresent,\n season_sin: Math.sin(angle),\n season_cos: Math.cos(angle),\n season_sin_2: Math.sin(2 * angle),\n season_cos_2: Math.cos(2 * angle),\n melt_pressure: swe * Math.max(temp7 - 32, 0) / 100,\n rain_without_snow: precip7 * (1 - snowPresent),\n current_flow: currentFlow,\n swe_median: sweMedian,\n temp_7d: temp7,\n precip_7d: precip7,\n };\n}\n\nasync function fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n runoffYear: number,\n cutoffAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n const start = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1));\n const end = new Date(\n Math.min(cutoffAt.getTime(), Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59)),\n );\n const candidate = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= end\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n if (!candidate) return null;\n const url =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, -1))\n }&endDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, 2))\n }¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const values = parseUsgs(await fetchJson(url), cutoffAt);\n return values.reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n}\n\nfunction findTubingOpening(\n series: FlowPoint[],\n after: Date | null,\n): Date | null {\n if (!after) return null;\n const ordered = series.filter((item) => item.date > after).sort((a, b) =>\n a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime()\n );\n for (let index = 0; index < ordered.length; index += 1) {\n const endPoint = ordered[index];\n const startTime = endPoint.date.getTime() - 24 * 3_600_000;\n const window = ordered.filter((item) =>\n item.date.getTime() >= startTime && item.date <= endPoint.date\n );\n if (window.length < 4) continue;\n if (\n window.at(-1)!.date.getTime() - window[0].date.getTime() < 23 * 3_600_000\n ) continue;\n if (window.every((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400)) {\n return endPoint.date;\n }\n }\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n instantaneous: FlowPoint[],\n snotel: Snotel,\n current: FlowPoint,\n peakInstant: FlowPoint | null,\n): Milestones {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(current.date);\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const springStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 2, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowEnd = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59));\n const recreationStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 4, 1, 12));\n const laborDay = firstMondayOfSeptember(runoffYear);\n laborDay.setUTCHours(23, 59, 59, 999);\n const waterYearDaily = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= waterYearStart && item.date <= current.date\n );\n const springDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) => item.date >= springStart);\n const first400 = springDaily.find((item) => item.value >= 400) || null;\n const peakDaily = springDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= peakWindowStart && item.date <= peakWindowEnd\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeak = peakDaily\n ? Math.floor(\n (current.date.getTime() - peakDaily.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000,\n )\n : 0;\n const dropFromPeak = peakDaily?.value\n ? 1 - current.value / peakDaily.value\n : 0;\n const peakFlowLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakDaily && daysSincePeak >= 6 && dropFromPeak >= 0.18,\n );\n let tubingForecastTrigger: FlowPoint | null = null;\n if (peakDaily) {\n const peakIndex = springDaily.findIndex((item) =>\n isoDay(item.date) === isoDay(peakDaily.date) &&\n item.value === peakDaily.value\n );\n for (\n let index = Math.max(2, peakIndex + 1);\n index < springDaily.length;\n index += 1\n ) {\n const item = springDaily[index];\n const fallingThreeDay = item.value < springDaily[index - 2].value;\n const eligible = peakDaily.value >= 800\n ? item.value < 800\n : peakFlowLikelyPassed;\n if (eligible && fallingThreeDay) {\n tubingForecastTrigger = item;\n break;\n }\n }\n }\n const dailyTubingFallback = peakDaily\n ? springDaily.find((item) =>\n item.date > peakDaily.date && item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n )?.date || null\n : null;\n const tubingOpening =\n findTubingOpening(instantaneous, peakDaily?.date || null) ||\n dailyTubingFallback;\n const seasonDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart && item.date <= laborDay &&\n item.date <= current.date\n );\n const counts = {\n p300: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 300).length,\n p600: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 600).length,\n p800: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 800).length,\n tubing:\n seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400).length,\n };\n const strengthDays = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart &&\n item.date <= new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 5, 30, 23, 59))\n );\n const strength = average(strengthDays.map((item) => item.value));\n const snowDates = [\n ...new Set(\n Object.values(snotel).flatMap((station) =>\n (station.WTEQ || []).map((item) => isoDay(item.date))\n ),\n ),\n ]\n .map((value) => new Date(`${value}T12:00:00Z`)).filter((date) =>\n date >= waterYearStart && date <= current.date\n ).sort((a, b) => a.getTime() - b.getTime());\n const snowSeries = snowDates.map((date) => ({\n date,\n value: stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date),\n }))\n .filter((item): item is { date: Date; value: number } =>\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n let persistentSnow = null;\n for (let index = 0; index <= snowSeries.length - 7; index += 1) {\n const window = snowSeries.slice(index, index + 7);\n if (window[0].value >= 1 && window.every((item) => item.value >= 0.5)) {\n persistentSnow = window[0];\n break;\n }\n }\n const peakSwe = snowSeries.reduce<{ date: Date; value: number } | null>(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeakSwe = peakSwe\n ? Math.floor((current.date.getTime() - peakSwe.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000)\n : 0;\n const currentSwe = snowSeries.at(-1)?.value || 0;\n const peakSweLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakSwe && peakSwe.value >= 1 && daysSincePeakSwe >= 14 &&\n currentSwe <= peakSwe.value * 0.7,\n );\n return {\n runoffYear,\n laborDay,\n first400,\n peakDaily,\n peakInstant,\n peakFlowLikelyPassed,\n tubingForecastTrigger,\n tubingOpening,\n counts,\n strength,\n persistentSnow,\n peakSwe,\n peakSweLikelyPassed,\n };\n}\n\nexport async function fetchBasinSnapshot(\n cutoffAt = new Date(),\n): Promise {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(cutoffAt);\n // Models use 7- and 30-day history. Starting 45 days before the water year\n // also prevents the October 1 lock from running with an empty daily series.\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const start = isoDay(addDays(waterYearStart, -45));\n const end = isoDay(cutoffAt);\n const dailyUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${start}&endDT=${end}¶meterCd=00060&statCd=00003&siteStatus=all`;\n const instantUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&period=P60D¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const stationParam = encodeURIComponent(CONFIG.snotelStations.join(\",\"));\n const snotelUrl =\n `https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdbRestApi/services/v1/data?stationTriplets=${stationParam}&elements=WTEQ%2CSNWD%2CPREC%2CTAVG&duration=DAILY&beginDate=${start}&endDate=${end}&periodRef=END¢ralTendencyType=MEDIAN&returnFlags=false&returnOriginalValues=false&returnSuspectData=false`;\n const [dailyPayload, instantPayload, snowPayload] = await Promise.all([\n fetchJson(dailyUrl),\n fetchJson(instantUrl),\n fetchJson(snotelUrl),\n ]);\n const dailyFlow = parseUsgs(dailyPayload, cutoffAt);\n const instantaneous = parseUsgs(instantPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!dailyFlow.length || !instantaneous.length) {\n throw new Error(\"The Pagosa USGS gauge did not return enough data\");\n }\n const snotel = parseSnotel(snowPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!Object.keys(snotel).length) {\n throw new Error(\"The headwater SNOTEL stations did not return enough data\");\n }\n const latestSnotelAt = Object.values(snotel)\n .flatMap((station) => Object.values(station).flat())\n .reduce(\n (latest, point) => !latest || point.date > latest ? point.date : latest,\n null,\n );\n const current = instantaneous.at(-1)!;\n const features = buildFeatures(\n dailyFlow,\n current.value,\n snotel,\n current.date,\n );\n const peakInstant = await fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow,\n runoffYear,\n cutoffAt,\n ).catch(() => null);\n const milestones = deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow,\n instantaneous,\n snotel,\n current,\n peakInstant,\n );\n return {\n capturedAt: new Date(),\n cutoffAt,\n current,\n instantaneous,\n dailyFlow,\n snotel,\n features,\n milestones,\n sourceStatus: {\n usgs_site: CONFIG.usgsSite,\n usgs_latest_at: current.date.toISOString(),\n usgs_daily_points: dailyFlow.length,\n usgs_instant_points: instantaneous.length,\n snotel_stations: Object.keys(snotel),\n snotel_latest_day: latestSnotelAt ? isoDay(latestSnotelAt) : null,\n },\n };\n}",[197],"1ee23f82-db4b-49ad-88bb-3f3080ab3ce9","sources-old.ts","9fe9133e-ab9a-11f1-b085-1607ee4eb77e",86,["D",1788883009046],7,[204],"9f38b5cc-9f34-480e-b8bb-e5988ca6b6ef","questions-old.ts","9c517f2c-ab9a-11f1-94dd-1607ee4eb77e",90,["D",1788883014695],6,"import { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n daysBetween,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n mountainToUtc,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport {\n clamp,\n runRightNowModel,\n tubingOpeningForecast,\n} from \"./model-runtime.ts\";\nimport type {\n BasinSnapshot,\n PredictionValue,\n QuestionDefinition,\n} from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction context(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n const today = mountainCalendarDate(snapshot.cutoffAt);\n const daysLeft = Math.max(\n 0,\n Math.ceil((m.laborDay.getTime() - today.getTime()) / 86_400_000),\n );\n return {\n ...snapshot.features,\n count300: m.counts.p300,\n count600: m.counts.p600,\n count800: m.counts.p800,\n countTubing: m.counts.tubing,\n daysLeft,\n };\n}\n\nfunction requiredModel(name: string, snapshot: BasinSnapshot): number {\n const value = runRightNowModel(name, context(snapshot));\n if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n throw new Error(`Model ${name} could not produce a prediction`);\n }\n return Number(value);\n}\n\nfunction predictionDate(\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n model: string,\n maximumDays: number,\n): Date {\n const days = Math.round(\n clamp(requiredModel(model, snapshot), 0, maximumDays),\n );\n return addDays(mountainCalendarDate(snapshot.cutoffAt), days);\n}\n\nfunction countRemainingTubingDays(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): number | null {\n const opening = snapshot.milestones.tubingOpening;\n if (!opening) return null;\n const start = addDays(mountainCalendarDate(opening), 1);\n return snapshot.dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= snapshot.milestones.laborDay &&\n item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n ).length;\n}\n\nconst dateActual = (date: Date | null, key = \"date\"): PredictionValue | null =>\n date ? { [key]: date.toISOString() } : null;\nconst dateHit = (\n prediction: PredictionValue,\n actual: PredictionValue,\n tolerance: number,\n key = \"date\",\n) =>\n Math.abs(\n daysBetween(\n new Date(String(prediction[key])),\n new Date(String(actual[key])),\n ),\n ) <= tolerance;\nconst numberHit = (\n prediction: PredictionValue,\n actual: PredictionValue,\n tolerance: (actual: number) => number,\n key = \"value\",\n) =>\n Math.abs(Number(prediction[key]) - Number(actual[key])) <=\n tolerance(Number(actual[key]));\n\nexport const QUESTIONS: QuestionDefinition[] = [\n {\n number: 1,\n key: \"persistent-snow\",\n title: \"First persistent headwater snowpack\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 10,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: predictionDate(s, \"persistent\", 100).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.persistentSnow?.date || null),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.persistentSnow),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 14),\n },\n {\n number: 2,\n key: \"peak-swe\",\n title: \"Peak headwater snowpack\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 2,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n value:\n Math.round(\n Math.max(\n s.milestones.peakSwe?.value || 0,\n requiredModel(\"peak_swe\", s),\n ) * 10,\n ) / 10,\n unit: \"in\",\n }),\n actual: (s) =>\n s.milestones.peakSwe\n ? {\n value: s.milestones.peakSwe.value,\n date: s.milestones.peakSwe.date.toISOString(),\n unit: \"in\",\n }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.milestones.peakSweLikelyPassed,\n score: (p, a) => numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(2, value * 0.2)),\n },\n {\n number: 3,\n key: \"first-400\",\n title: \"First 400+ CFS day\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 3,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: predictionDate(s, \"first400\", 80).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.first400?.date || null),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.first400),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 10),\n },\n {\n number: 4,\n key: \"season-strength\",\n title: \"May–June rafting-season strength\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 4,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n value: Math.max(0, Math.round(requiredModel(\"river_strength\", s))),\n unit: \"cfs_average\",\n }),\n actual: (s) =>\n Number.isFinite(s.milestones.strength)\n ? { value: s.milestones.strength, unit: \"cfs_average\" }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.cutoffAt > mountainToUtc(s.milestones.runoffYear, 7, 1, 0),\n score: (p, a) => numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(100, value * 0.3)),\n },\n {\n number: 5,\n key: \"spring-peak\",\n title: \"Spring peak flow\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 4,\n issueDay: 15,\n calculate: (s) => {\n const date = predictionDate(s, \"spring_peak_days\", 70);\n const minutes =\n Math.round(Number(MODEL_BUNDLE.seasonal_peak_time_minutes_p50) / 15) *\n 15;\n const minuteOfDay = ((minutes % 1440) + 1440) % 1440;\n const timestamp = mountainToUtc(\n date.getUTCFullYear(),\n date.getUTCMonth() + 1,\n date.getUTCDate(),\n Math.floor(minuteOfDay / 60),\n minuteOfDay % 60,\n );\n const flow = Math.round(\n Math.max(\n s.current.value,\n s.milestones.peakDaily?.value || 0,\n requiredModel(\"spring_peak_flow\", s),\n ),\n );\n return { timestamp: timestamp.toISOString(), value: flow, unit: \"cfs\" };\n },\n actual: (s) =>\n s.milestones.peakInstant\n ? {\n timestamp: s.milestones.peakInstant.date.toISOString(),\n value: s.milestones.peakInstant.value,\n unit: \"cfs\",\n }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.cutoffAt > mountainToUtc(s.milestones.runoffYear, 8, 1, 0),\n score: (p, a) => {\n const hours =\n Math.abs(\n new Date(String(p.timestamp)).getTime() -\n new Date(String(a.timestamp)).getTime(),\n ) / 3_600_000;\n return hours <= 168 &&\n numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(250, value * 0.3));\n },\n },\n {\n number: 6,\n key: \"rafting-days\",\n title: \"Rafting-flow days\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 5,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n p300: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p300, requiredModel(\"days_ge_300\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p300,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n p600: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p600, requiredModel(\"days_ge_600\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p600,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n p800: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p800, requiredModel(\"days_ge_800\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p800,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n }),\n actual: (s) => ({ ...s.milestones.counts }),\n final: (s) =>\n s.cutoffAt > addDays(firstMondayOfSeptember(s.milestones.runoffYear), 1),\n score: (p, a) =>\n [\"p300\", \"p600\", \"p800\"].filter((key) =>\n Math.abs(Number(p[key]) - Number(a[key])) <= 10\n ).length >= 2,\n },\n {\n number: 7,\n key: \"tubing-opening\",\n title: \"Tubing Season Opening Day\",\n issueKind: \"event\",\n trigger: (s) => s.milestones.tubingForecastTrigger?.date || null,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: tubingOpeningForecast(s.features, s.cutoffAt).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.tubingOpening),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.tubingOpening),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 7),\n },\n {\n number: 8,\n key: \"remaining-tubing-days\",\n title: \"Remaining tubing-range days\",\n issueKind: \"event\",\n trigger: (s) => s.milestones.tubingOpening,\n calculate: (s) => {\n const observed = countRemainingTubingDays(s) || 0;\n const preOpeningDays = Math.max(0, s.milestones.counts.tubing - observed);\n const allSeasonEstimate = Math.max(\n observed,\n requiredModel(\"tubing_days\", s) - preOpeningDays,\n );\n return {\n value: Math.round(\n clamp(allSeasonEstimate, observed, observed + context(s).daysLeft),\n ),\n unit: \"days\",\n };\n },\n actual: (s) => {\n const value = countRemainingTubingDays(s);\n return value === null ? null : { value, unit: \"days\" };\n },\n final: (s) =>\n s.cutoffAt > addDays(firstMondayOfSeptember(s.milestones.runoffYear), 1),\n score: (p, a) => Math.abs(Number(p.value) - Number(a.value)) <= 10,\n },\n];",[211],"0668afd9-e653-469a-9de8-d55c393d7b63","models.ts.ts","c5bf5060-ab9e-11f1-a03b-1607ee4eb77e",137,["D",1788883385392],"import {\n MODEL_BUNDLE,\n SMALL_RIGHT_NOW_MODELS,\n TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL,\n} from \"./models-core.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_1 } from \"./first400-trees-1.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_2 } from \"./first400-trees-2.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_3 } from \"./first400-trees-3.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_4 } from \"./first400-trees-4.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_5 } from \"./first400-trees-5.ts\";\n\nexport { MODEL_BUNDLE, TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL };\nexport const RIGHT_NOW_MODELS = {\n ...SMALL_RIGHT_NOW_MODELS,\n first400: {\n ...{\n \"type\": \"extra_trees\",\n \"features\": [\n \"log_flow\",\n \"log_flow_mean_7d\",\n \"log_flow_mean_30d\",\n \"relative_flow_change_7d\",\n \"swe_in\",\n \"swe_ratio\",\n \"swe_change_7d\",\n \"temperature_scaled\",\n \"prec_total_7d\",\n \"prec_total_30d\",\n \"snow_present\",\n \"season_sin\",\n \"season_cos\",\n \"season_sin_2\",\n \"season_cos_2\",\n \"melt_pressure\",\n \"rain_without_snow\",\n ],\n \"audit\": {\n \"model\": \"extra_trees\",\n \"hit_rate\": 0.8112244897959183,\n \"mae\": 6.468764022471184,\n \"n\": 196,\n },\n },\n trees: [\n ...FIRST400_TREES_1,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_2,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_3,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_4,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_5,\n ],\n },\n} as const;",[219],"e606d5c4-9c9d-4419-92de-0ee0d46dda2e","models-full-old.ts","c5f98036-ab9a-11f1-8a31-1607ee4eb77e",70,["D",1788882784046],"import {\n MODEL_BUNDLE,\n SMALL_RIGHT_NOW_MODELS,\n TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL,\n} from \"./models-core.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_1 } from \"./first400-trees-1.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_2 } from \"./first400-trees-2.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_3 } from \"./first400-trees-3.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_4 } from \"./first400-trees-4.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_5 } from \"./first400-trees-5.ts\";\n\nexport { MODEL_BUNDLE, TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL };\nexport const RIGHT_NOW_MODELS = {\n ...SMALL_RIGHT_NOW_MODELS,\n first400: {\n ...{\n \"type\": \"extra_trees\",\n \"features\": [\n \"log_flow\",\n \"log_flow_mean_7d\",\n \"log_flow_mean_30d\",\n \"relative_flow_change_7d\",\n \"swe_in\",\n \"swe_ratio\",\n \"swe_change_7d\",\n \"temperature_scaled\",\n \"prec_total_7d\",\n \"prec_total_30d\",\n \"snow_present\",\n \"season_sin\",\n \"season_cos\",\n \"season_sin_2\",\n \"season_cos_2\",\n \"melt_pressure\",\n \"rain_without_snow\",\n ],\nimport { MODEL_BUNDLE, SMALL_RIGHT_NOW_MODELS, TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL } from \"./models-core.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_1 } from \"./first400-trees-1.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_2 } from \"./first400-trees-2.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_3 } from \"./first400-trees-3.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_4 } from \"./first400-trees-4.ts\";\nimport { FIRST400_TREES_5 } from \"./first400-trees-5.ts\";\n\nexport { MODEL_BUNDLE, TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL };\nexport const RIGHT_NOW_MODELS = {\n ...SMALL_RIGHT_NOW_MODELS,\n first400: { ...{\"type\":\"extra_trees\",\"features\":[\"log_flow\",\"log_flow_mean_7d\",\"log_flow_mean_30d\",\"relative_flow_change_7d\",\"swe_in\",\"swe_ratio\",\"swe_change_7d\",\"temperature_scaled\",\"prec_total_7d\",\"prec_total_30d\",\"snow_present\",\"season_sin\",\"season_cos\",\"season_sin_2\",\"season_cos_2\",\"melt_pressure\",\"rain_without_snow\"],\"audit\":{\"model\":\"extra_trees\",\"hit_rate\":0.8112244897959183,\"mae\":6.468764022471184,\"n\":196}}, trees: [...FIRST400_TREES_1, ...FIRST400_TREES_2, ...FIRST400_TREES_3, ...FIRST400_TREES_4, ...FIRST400_TREES_5] },\n} as const;\n \"audit\": { \"model\": \"extra_trees\", \"hit_rate\": 0.8112244897959183, \"mae\": 6.468764022471184,\n \"n\": 196,\n },\n },\n trees: [\n ...FIRST400_TREES_1,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_2,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_3,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_4,\n ...FIRST400_TREES_5,\n ],\n },\n} as const;",[226],"02333bbb-8bb6-4272-9a00-965c286931d3","models-core.ts","7547205e-ab9e-11f1-9265-1607ee4eb77e",117,["D",1788883249820],1,[233],"e600fcf4-cc93-46ed-9e0b-863c8e653226","model-runtime.ts","c85e49c0-ab9e-11f1-bfd4-1607ee4eb77e",141,["D",1788883390021],"import { RIGHT_NOW_MODELS, TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport { addDays, mountainCalendarDate } from \"./dates.ts\";\n\nexport function clamp(value: number, min: number, max: number): number {\n return Math.min(max, Math.max(min, value));\n}\n\nfunction runTree(tree: any, values: number[]): number {\n let node = 0;\n while (Number(tree.feature[node]) >= 0) {\n const featureIndex = Number(tree.feature[node]);\n node = values[featureIndex] <= Number(tree.threshold[node])\n ? Number(tree.left[node])\n : Number(tree.right[node]);\n }\n return Number(tree.value[node]);\n}\n\nexport function runRightNowModel(\n name: string,\n featureMap: Record,\n): number | null {\n const model: any = (RIGHT_NOW_MODELS as any)[name];\n if (!model) return null;\n const values = model.features.map((feature: string) =>\n Number(featureMap[feature])\n );\n if (values.some((value: number) => !Number.isFinite(value))) return null;\n if (model.type === \"gradient_boost\") {\n return Number(model.init) +\n model.trees.reduce(\n (sum: number, tree: any) =>\n sum + Number(model.learningRate) * runTree(tree, values),\n 0,\n );\n }\n let estimate = Number(model.intercept) || 0;\n for (let index = 0; index < model.features.length; index += 1) {\n const scale = Math.abs(Number(model.scale[index])) > 1e-9\n ? Number(model.scale[index])\n : 1;\n estimate += ((values[index] - Number(model.mean[index])) / scale) *\n Number(model.coef[index]);\n }\n return estimate;\n}\n\nexport function tubingOpeningForecast(\n features: Record,\n fromDate: Date,\n): Date {\n const model: any = TUBING_OPEN_LIVE_MODEL;\n let estimate = Number(model.intercept) || 0;\n for (let index = 0; index < model.features.length; index += 1) {\n const raw = Number(features[model.features[index]]);\n if (!Number.isFinite(raw)) {\n throw new Error(\n `Missing tubing-opening feature ${model.features[index]}`,\n );\n }\n const scale = Math.abs(Number(model.scale[index])) > 1e-9\n ? Number(model.scale[index])\n : 1;\n estimate += ((raw - Number(model.mean[index])) / scale) *\n Number(model.coef[index]);\n }\n return addDays(\n mountainCalendarDate(fromDate),\n Math.round(clamp(estimate, 0, 70)),\n );\n}",[240],"3cf0fa99-c590-4138-8f42-0c3314a043cf","model-runtime-old.ts","9e38bf58-ab9a-11f1-9797-1607ee4eb77e",78,["D",1788882986481],5,[247],"71a8dd41-9d07-48a4-a2e5-49b174c0d3a7","main.ts",67,["D",1788882631456],3,"http","import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport { getPublicFeed, initDb } from \"./storage.ts\";\n\nfunction cors(origin: string | null): HeadersInit {\n const headers: Record = {\n \"Access-Control-Allow-Methods\": \"GET, OPTIONS\",\n \"Access-Control-Allow-Headers\": \"Content-Type\",\n \"Cache-Control\": \"public, max-age=300, stale-while-revalidate=3600\",\n \"Content-Type\": \"application/json; charset=utf-8\",\n \"Vary\": \"Origin\",\n };\n if (origin && CONFIG.allowedOrigins.has(origin)) {\n headers[\"Access-Control-Allow-Origin\"] = origin;\n }\n return headers;\n}\n\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const origin = req.headers.get(\"origin\");\n if (req.method === \"OPTIONS\") {\n return new Response(null, { status: 204, headers: cors(origin) });\n }\n if (req.method !== \"GET\") {\n return Response.json({ error: \"Read-only endpoint\" }, {\n status: 405,\n headers: cors(origin),\n });\n }\n await initDb();\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n const key = url.searchParams.get(\"year\")\n ? `scoreboard-${url.searchParams.get(\"year\")}`\n : \"scoreboard-current\";\n const cached = await getPublicFeed(key);\n if (!cached) {\n return Response.json({\n error: \"The scoreboard has not completed its first run yet.\",\n }, { status: 503, headers: cors(origin) });\n }\n return Response.json({\n ...cached.value,\n served_at: new Date().toISOString(),\n cache_updated_at: cached.updatedAt,\n }, { headers: cors(origin) });\n}",[254],"897ff7c2-3743-4e65-9376-bbd7003740f8","lab.ts","30c7c606-aa20-11f1-9651-1607ee4eb77e",["D",1788719065897],"/**\n * Black Hat Hydrology Lab — automated San Juan River seasonal prediction tracker.\n *\n * Automatic lifecycle, year after year:\n * 1. A new season opens on October 1 (\"2025-26\", \"2026-27\", ...).\n * 2. Each prediction is locked on a fixed issue date — once locked it is\n * immutable (inputs + model version preserved, cannot be overwritten).\n * 3. When the season provides the answer, the result is scored and stored\n * alongside the original forecast.\n * 4. The previous (now-finished) season remains available as the \"film room.\"\n * 5. The public page serves all records read-only.\n */\nimport { Database } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\n// Project-scoped persistent SQLite store.\nexport const db = new Database(\"/blackhat.sqlite\");\ninit();\n\nfunction init() {\n db.exec(`\n CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS predictions (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n season TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_date TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,\n forecast TEXT NOT NULL, -- JSON: { headline, inputs, model_version }\n result TEXT, -- JSON: actual observation\n score REAL,\n created_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n scored_at TEXT\n );\n CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_season ON predictions (season);\n `);\n}\n\n// ---- Helpers ---------------------------------------------------------------\n\n/** Season slug from a date: Oct 2025 -> \"2025-26\" (seasons start Oct 1, UTC). */\nfunction seasonSlug(date = new Date()): string {\n const y = date.getUTCFullYear();\n return date.getUTCMonth() >= 9 ? `${y}-${(y + 1) % 100}` : `${y - 1}-${y % 100}`;\n}\n\n/** Season currently in effect today. Oct 1 rolls this over automatically. */\nfunction currentSeason(): string {\n return seasonSlug(new Date());\n}\n\n/** Lock a prediction on its fixed issue date. Refuses to overwrite once locked. */\nexport function lockPrediction(p: {\n issueDate: string; // ISO date (UTC) the prediction is issued on\n headline: string;\n inputs: object;\n modelVersion: string;\n}): { ok: boolean; id?: number; error?: string } {\n const season = seasonSlug(new Date(p.issueDate));\n const existing = db\n .query(\"SELECT id, locked FROM predictions WHERE season = ? AND issue_date = ?\", [\n season,\n p.issueDate,\n ])\n .next();\n if (existing && existing[1] === 1) {\n return { ok: false, id: Number(existing[0]), error: \"Prediction already locked — immutable.\" };\n }\n const forecast = JSON.stringify({\n headline: p.headline,\n inputs: p.inputs,\n model_version: p.modelVersion,\n });\n if (existing) {\n db.exec(\"UPDATE predictions SET forecast = ?, locked = 1 WHERE id = ?\", [\n forecast,\n Number(existing[0]),\n ]);\n return { ok: true, id: Number(existing[0]) };\n }\n const id = db.exec(\n \"INSERT INTO predictions (season, issue_date, locked, forecast, created_at) VALUES (?, ?, 1, ?, ?)\",\n [season, p.issueDate, forecast, new Date(p.issueDate).toISOString()],\n );\n return { ok: true, id: Number(id) };\n}\n\n/** Score a locked prediction once the season provides the answer. */\nexport function scorePrediction(\n issueDate: string,\n actual: object,\n score: number,\n): { ok: boolean; id?: number; error?: string } {\n const existing = db\n .query(\"SELECT id, locked FROM predictions WHERE season = ? AND issue_date = ?\", [\n seasonSlug(new Date(issueDate)),\n issueDate,\n ])\n .next();\n if (!existing) return { ok: false, error: \"Prediction not found.\" };\n if (existing[1] !== 1) return { ok: false, error: \"Prediction is not locked.\" };\n const id = Number(existing[0]);\n db.exec(\"UPDATE predictions SET result = ?, score = ?, scored_at = ? WHERE id = ?\", [\n JSON.stringify(actual),\n score,\n new Date().toISOString(),\n id,\n ]);\n return { ok: true, id };\n}\n\n/** All records (newest last) with JSON fields parsed. */\nfunction allPredictions() {\n return [...db.query(\"SELECT * FROM predictions ORDER BY issue_date\")].map((r) => ({\n id: r[0],\n season: r[1],\n issue_date: r[2],\n locked: r[3],\n forecast: JSON.parse(r[4] as string),\n result: r[5] ? JSON.parse(r[5] as string) : null,\n score: r[6],\n created_at: r[7],\n scored_at: r[8],\n }));\n}\n\n// ---- HTTP ------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nfunction layout(body: string): string {\n return `\n\nBlack Hat Hydrology Lab\n${body}`;\n}\n\nexport default async function handler(req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n\n // ---- Admin POST endpoints (write-only; guarded by secret when set) -------\n if (req.method === \"POST\" && url.pathname === \"/api/predict\") {\n if (!authorized(req)) return new Response(\"Unauthorized\", { status: 401 });\n const out = lockPrediction(await req.json());\n return jsonResponse(out, out.ok ? 201 : 400);\n }\n if (req.method === \"POST\" && url.pathname === \"/api/score\") {\n if (!authorized(req)) return new Response(\"Unauthorized\", { status: 401 });\n const { issue_date, actual, score } = await req.json();\n const out = scorePrediction(issue_date, actual, score);\n return jsonResponse(out, out.ok ? 200 : 400);\n }\n\n // ---- Public read-only JSON feed ----\n if (url.pathname === \"/data\") {\n return jsonResponse({ current_season: currentSeason(), records: allPredictions() });\n }\n\n // ---- Public read-only page ----\n const current = currentSeason();\n const bySeason = new Map>>();\n for (const r of allPredictions()) {\n const list = bySeason.get(r.season as string) ?? [];\n list.push(r);\n bySeason.set(r.season as string, list);\n }\n\n let body = `

🖤 Black Hat Hydrology Lab

San Juan River forecast experiment · Current season ${current} ·\nraw JSON

`;\n\n // Film room first: all completed seasons, most recent first.\n const completed = [...bySeason.keys()].filter((s) => s !== current).sort().reverse();\n for (const season of completed) {\n body +=\n `

Film room — ${season}

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(season)!, season)}

`;\n }\n // Current / active season last.\n body +=\n `

Current season — ${current}

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(current) ?? [], current)}

`;\n\n return new Response(layout(body), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n}\n\nfunction seasonTable(recs: Array>, season: string): string {\n if (!recs.length) return `

No predictions locked yet for ${season}.

`;\n const rows = recs\n .map((r) => {\n const f = r.forecast as { headline: string; model_version: string };\n const s = r.score == null\n ? \"—\"\n : `= 0 ? \"win\" : \"loss\"}\">${r.score}`;\n return `${r.issue_date}${f.headline}${f.model_version}${s}`;\n })\n .join(\"\");\n return `${rows}

Issue	Forecast	Model	Score

`;\n}\n\nfunction authorized(req: Request): boolean {\n const secret = Deno.env.get(\"BH_LAB_SECRET\");\n if (!secret) return true; // no secret set → allow while building\n return req.headers.get(\"x-lab-secret\") === secret;\n}\n\nfunction jsonResponse(data: unknown, status = 200): Response {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(data, null, 2), {\n status,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" },\n });\n}\n",[262],"7c5870a0-512d-40ca-8907-be6d5339caf7","first400-trees-5.ts","b88b8cec-ab9e-11f1-bc0e-1607ee4eb77e",133,["D",1788883364194],"export const FIRST400_TREES_5 = [{\n \"feature\": [\n 14,\n 0,\n 1,\n 4,\n 2,\n 14,\n 9,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n 8,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 6,\n 4,\n 2,\n 4,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 0,\n 9,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 1,\n 13,\n -2,\n 6,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 7,\n 7,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 1,\n 2,\n 14,\n 8,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 0.87653768,\n 4.7921112,\n 4.47136484,\n 29.61801654,\n 4.223203,\n 0.57383543,\n 5.50258583,\n 0.50977228,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3.96963597,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.76439375,\n 0.99306143,\n 0.44283203,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.92495302,\n 0.74932933,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.07671249,\n 0.12518032,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.93490488,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.90856806,\n -0.55129933,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.1377155,\n 1.82529989,\n 30.33469698,\n 4.75285668,\n 26.12560913,\n 4.26493311,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.57489474,\n -2,\n -2,\n 34.72836655,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.62829844,\n -2,\n -0.18041943,\n -2,\n 5.2231028,\n -2,\n 5.73374065,\n 3.49311037,\n -2,\n 5.32793707,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.0732917,\n 5.09879957,\n -0.07308395,\n -2,\n 0.20847607,\n 4.75141927,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.69025697,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.91145953,\n -0.0895072,\n -0.42800683,\n -2,\n -0.09346358,\n -2,\n 5.48172494,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.40868963,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 41.46949465,\n 5.25805397,\n 4.63920488,\n 0.92861266,\n 1.03453858,\n -2,\n 4.52892494,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.21529649,\n -0.05518611,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.74634324,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.43917273,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.80985199,\n 5.44109142,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.28136886,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n 6,\n 7,\n 8,\n -1,\n -1,\n 11,\n -1,\n -1,\n 14,\n 15,\n 16,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 20,\n 21,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 26,\n 27,\n -1,\n -1,\n 30,\n -1,\n -1,\n 33,\n 34,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 38,\n 39,\n 40,\n 41,\n 42,\n 43,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 48,\n -1,\n -1,\n 51,\n -1,\n -1,\n 54,\n -1,\n 56,\n -1,\n 58,\n -1,\n 60,\n 61,\n -1,\n 63,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 67,\n 68,\n 69,\n -1,\n 71,\n 72,\n -1,\n -1,\n 75,\n -1,\n -1,\n 78,\n 79,\n 80,\n -1,\n 82,\n -1,\n 84,\n -1,\n -1,\n 87,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 91,\n 92,\n 93,\n 94,\n 95,\n -1,\n 97,\n -1,\n -1,\n 100,\n 101,\n -1,\n -1,\n 104,\n -1,\n -1,\n 107,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 115,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 66,\n 37,\n 32,\n 25,\n 24,\n 13,\n 10,\n 9,\n -1,\n -1,\n 12,\n -1,\n -1,\n 19,\n 18,\n 17,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 23,\n 22,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 29,\n 28,\n -1,\n -1,\n 31,\n -1,\n -1,\n 36,\n 35,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 53,\n 50,\n 47,\n 46,\n 45,\n 44,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 49,\n -1,\n -1,\n 52,\n -1,\n -1,\n 55,\n -1,\n 57,\n -1,\n 59,\n -1,\n 65,\n 62,\n -1,\n 64,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 90,\n 77,\n 70,\n -1,\n 74,\n 73,\n -1,\n -1,\n 76,\n -1,\n -1,\n 89,\n 86,\n 81,\n -1,\n 83,\n -1,\n 85,\n -1,\n -1,\n 88,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 114,\n 109,\n 106,\n 99,\n 96,\n -1,\n 98,\n -1,\n -1,\n 103,\n 102,\n -1,\n -1,\n 105,\n -1,\n -1,\n 108,\n -1,\n -1,\n 113,\n 112,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 116,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 22.17647059,\n 27.96,\n 30.47524752,\n 32.42666667,\n 33.55223881,\n 36.95833333,\n 40.8,\n 41.8,\n 39.8,\n 34.21428571,\n 36.33333333,\n 30.4,\n 31.65116279,\n 34.77777778,\n 37.09090909,\n 35.66666667,\n 38.8,\n 31.14285714,\n 29.4,\n 28.375,\n 30.125,\n 26.625,\n 31.22222222,\n 23,\n 24.84615385,\n 21.64285714,\n 16.57142857,\n 26.71428571,\n 28.58333333,\n 23.16666667,\n 34,\n 17.375,\n 20.1875,\n 15.42857143,\n 23.88888889,\n 11.75,\n 14.64583333,\n 19.21276596,\n 16.90909091,\n 20.43478261,\n 23.88888889,\n 27.16666667,\n 32.16666667,\n 22.16666667,\n 17.33333333,\n 8,\n 8.8,\n 10,\n 7.6,\n 24.64285714,\n 30.5,\n 16.83333333,\n 10.26530612,\n 18.14285714,\n 8.95238095,\n 3.6,\n 10.625,\n 15.71428571,\n 9.2,\n 10.63157895,\n 12.2,\n 10.07142857,\n 15.33333333,\n 6.125,\n 4.66666667,\n 10.75294118,\n 7.3373494,\n 10.0625,\n 13.22222222,\n 8.82608696,\n 10.36363636,\n 12.83333333,\n 7.4,\n 7.41666667,\n 7.5,\n 7.33333333,\n 5.62745098,\n 6.97560976,\n 5.2,\n 3.5,\n 5.625,\n 7.33333333,\n 4.6,\n 6,\n 3,\n 11.81818182,\n 11,\n 12.8,\n 0.1,\n 14.01149425,\n 15.10810811,\n 17.85714286,\n 19.09302326,\n 20.89473684,\n 22.5,\n 20.15384615,\n 19,\n 20.875,\n 17.66666667,\n 20.5,\n 21.83333333,\n 19.16666667,\n 14.83333333,\n 14.6,\n 15,\n 13.76923077,\n 10.8,\n 15.625,\n 6.55555556,\n 10.8,\n 12.8,\n 8.8,\n 1.25,\n 7.76923077,\n 11,\n 2.6,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 2,\n 12,\n 9,\n 3,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 1,\n 9,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 6,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n 7,\n -2,\n 12,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n 11,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 3,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 1,\n 12,\n 4,\n 11,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 6,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 15,\n 4,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 4.96953351,\n 4.67424476,\n 4.18658069,\n -0.90987793,\n 7.21978858,\n 0.21117504,\n 4.66245662,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.29275145,\n -0.56567302,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.7880715,\n 4.0390711,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.54948265,\n 4.08319376,\n 4.8561877,\n -2,\n 0.49307963,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.165021,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.1542491,\n 0.74756455,\n -0.17549853,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7.0611442,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.27497317,\n 4.48732228,\n -2,\n 4.62344905,\n -2,\n 4.56716697,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.658682,\n -0.91652657,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.53067453,\n -0.53771837,\n -2,\n -0.9073169,\n -0.63455214,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6.82821708,\n 0.23157051,\n 23.5439384,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.01410498,\n 0.03531685,\n -0.40455731,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.98283671,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.81403702,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.4026086,\n 5.39091675,\n -0.98236879,\n 28.15765089,\n 0.02781586,\n 0.20276649,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.72306373,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11.33162872,\n 5.31025234,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.84070838,\n 0.49990008,\n -0.95897831,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.65614304,\n 0.17563638,\n 29.11369816,\n 0.22784427,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.48334911,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.54908902,\n 0.92045728,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.46111999,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n 6,\n 7,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 11,\n 12,\n -1,\n -1,\n 15,\n 16,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 20,\n 21,\n 22,\n -1,\n 24,\n -1,\n -1,\n 27,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 31,\n 32,\n 33,\n -1,\n -1,\n 36,\n -1,\n -1,\n 39,\n 40,\n -1,\n 42,\n -1,\n 44,\n -1,\n -1,\n 47,\n 48,\n -1,\n -1,\n 51,\n 52,\n -1,\n 54,\n 55,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 59,\n 60,\n 61,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 66,\n 67,\n 68,\n -1,\n -1,\n 71,\n -1,\n -1,\n 74,\n -1,\n -1,\n 77,\n 78,\n 79,\n 80,\n 81,\n 82,\n -1,\n -1,\n 85,\n -1,\n -1,\n 88,\n 89,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 93,\n 94,\n 95,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 100,\n 101,\n 102,\n 103,\n -1,\n -1,\n 106,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 115,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 76,\n 65,\n 30,\n 19,\n 10,\n 9,\n 8,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 14,\n 13,\n -1,\n -1,\n 18,\n 17,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 29,\n 26,\n 23,\n -1,\n 25,\n -1,\n -1,\n 28,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 38,\n 35,\n 34,\n -1,\n -1,\n 37,\n -1,\n -1,\n 46,\n 41,\n -1,\n 43,\n -1,\n 45,\n -1,\n -1,\n 50,\n 49,\n -1,\n -1,\n 58,\n 53,\n -1,\n 57,\n 56,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 64,\n 63,\n 62,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 73,\n 70,\n 69,\n -1,\n -1,\n 72,\n -1,\n -1,\n 75,\n -1,\n -1,\n 114,\n 99,\n 92,\n 87,\n 84,\n 83,\n -1,\n -1,\n 86,\n -1,\n -1,\n 91,\n 90,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 98,\n 97,\n 96,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 109,\n 108,\n 105,\n 104,\n -1,\n -1,\n 107,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 113,\n 112,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 116,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 22.20647773,\n 24.28301887,\n 29.84946237,\n 25.22222222,\n 29.05555556,\n 26.72727273,\n 25.4,\n 27.83333333,\n 32.71428571,\n 22.66666667,\n 19.8,\n 18.8,\n 20.8,\n 24.35294118,\n 26.90909091,\n 29.66666667,\n 23.6,\n 19.66666667,\n 34.1875,\n 35.74358974,\n 37.08695652,\n 42.2,\n 33.15384615,\n 34.71428571,\n 31.33333333,\n 33.8125,\n 38,\n 30.55555556,\n 27.44444444,\n 19.93277311,\n 13.88461538,\n 19.36363636,\n 21.16666667,\n 17.2,\n 9.86666667,\n 9.14285714,\n 10.5,\n 21.62365591,\n 26.07407407,\n 31,\n 23.61111111,\n 25.33333333,\n 22.75,\n 26.6,\n 20,\n 19.8030303,\n 13.72727273,\n 17.33333333,\n 9.4,\n 21.01818182,\n 22.51724138,\n 17.42857143,\n 24.13636364,\n 21.64285714,\n 19.5,\n 23.25,\n 28.5,\n 19.34615385,\n 20.88235294,\n 19.72727273,\n 24.2,\n 16,\n 23,\n 16.44444444,\n 9.62857143,\n 8.70833333,\n 10.75,\n 7.71428571,\n 15,\n 6.66666667,\n 7,\n 6.33333333,\n 11.63636364,\n 7,\n 15.5,\n 8.63888889,\n 7.76744186,\n 9.83333333,\n 7.77777778,\n 10.2,\n 5.14285714,\n 6.66666667,\n 2.4,\n 16.63636364,\n 17.16666667,\n 16,\n 4.75,\n 5.2,\n 6.4,\n 4.6,\n 3.4,\n 13.25925926,\n 11.45454545,\n 13.375,\n 14.125,\n 12.625,\n 6.33333333,\n 21.2,\n 5.15789474,\n 4.34146341,\n 3.34375,\n 4.58823529,\n 3.66666667,\n 5.625,\n 1.93333333,\n 3.6,\n 1.1,\n 7.88888889,\n 7.25,\n 7.81818182,\n 6.8,\n 8.66666667,\n 6,\n 16.13333333,\n 15.25,\n 17.14285714,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 14,\n 0,\n 0,\n 2,\n 2,\n 8,\n 9,\n 8,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 12,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 2,\n 4,\n 0,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n 1,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 12,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 1,\n 11,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 4,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 4,\n 3,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 0,\n 0,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 0.88154302,\n 5.46013666,\n 4.70181194,\n 4.47193637,\n 4.05162457,\n 1.95980484,\n 6.87541642,\n 1.10910153,\n 0.43376812,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 23.07570729,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.46558415,\n 33.01144661,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.36942377,\n -0.93056998,\n -2,\n 4.22242099,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.22835396,\n 0.66217046,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.31646125,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.07600783,\n 4.80802118,\n 24.3942757,\n 4.89941153,\n 0.75999744,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.61849313,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.93054194,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.29311148,\n 0.29600358,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.65993022,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.70228295,\n -2,\n 5.25933242,\n -2,\n 5.5950646,\n -0.95181253,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.41257043,\n -0.9892797,\n -2,\n 0.48001192,\n -2,\n 26.60250985,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.86414844,\n 5.25330654,\n -0.04077241,\n 4.94961017,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.06025397,\n 30.13337854,\n -0.03736261,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 32.13632474,\n 26.67802191,\n 0.17240146,\n 0.20058177,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.04060602,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.80161423,\n -2,\n -2,\n 31.59254124,\n 5.74419461,\n 5.34570185,\n 0.04747593,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.02955755,\n 0.09649817,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.50734162,\n 5.75514198,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n 6,\n 7,\n 8,\n 9,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 13,\n -1,\n -1,\n 16,\n 17,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 21,\n 22,\n -1,\n 24,\n -1,\n -1,\n 27,\n 28,\n -1,\n -1,\n 31,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 35,\n 36,\n 37,\n 38,\n 39,\n -1,\n -1,\n 42,\n -1,\n -1,\n 45,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 49,\n 50,\n -1,\n -1,\n 53,\n -1,\n -1,\n 56,\n -1,\n 58,\n -1,\n 60,\n 61,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 65,\n 66,\n -1,\n 68,\n -1,\n 70,\n -1,\n -1,\n 73,\n 74,\n 75,\n 76,\n -1,\n -1,\n 79,\n 80,\n 81,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 85,\n 86,\n 87,\n 88,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 92,\n -1,\n -1,\n 95,\n -1,\n -1,\n 98,\n 99,\n 100,\n 101,\n -1,\n -1,\n 104,\n 105,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 111,\n 112,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 64,\n 55,\n 34,\n 33,\n 20,\n 15,\n 12,\n 11,\n 10,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 14,\n -1,\n -1,\n 19,\n 18,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 26,\n 23,\n -1,\n 25,\n -1,\n -1,\n 30,\n 29,\n -1,\n -1,\n 32,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 48,\n 47,\n 44,\n 41,\n 40,\n -1,\n -1,\n 43,\n -1,\n -1,\n 46,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 52,\n 51,\n -1,\n -1,\n 54,\n -1,\n -1,\n 57,\n -1,\n 59,\n -1,\n 63,\n 62,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 72,\n 67,\n -1,\n 69,\n -1,\n 71,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n 97,\n 78,\n 77,\n -1,\n -1,\n 84,\n 83,\n 82,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 94,\n 91,\n 90,\n 89,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 93,\n -1,\n -1,\n 96,\n -1,\n -1,\n 109,\n 108,\n 103,\n 102,\n -1,\n -1,\n 107,\n 106,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 114,\n 113,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 22.11711712,\n 24.21538462,\n 28.43478261,\n 29.81132075,\n 32.4,\n 35.34210526,\n 37.81818182,\n 39.6875,\n 38.2,\n 42.16666667,\n 32.83333333,\n 31.9375,\n 34.6,\n 27.5,\n 25.82352941,\n 22.72727273,\n 26,\n 18.8,\n 31.5,\n 27.01960784,\n 30.04545455,\n 24,\n 32.3125,\n 27.8,\n 34.36363636,\n 24.72413793,\n 27.71428571,\n 33,\n 22.42857143,\n 21.93333333,\n 27.25,\n 15.85714286,\n 12.22222222,\n 18.15,\n 20.43137255,\n 23.51219512,\n 28.7826087,\n 25.90909091,\n 23.5,\n 28.8,\n 31.41666667,\n 34.14285714,\n 27.6,\n 16.77777778,\n 15.55555556,\n 18,\n 7.8,\n 14.13793103,\n 12.8,\n 17,\n 10,\n 15.57142857,\n 17,\n 14.5,\n 6.96296296,\n 14.5,\n 4.80952381,\n 7,\n 4.125,\n 2.4,\n 4,\n 0.8,\n 7,\n 10.76331361,\n 19,\n 12,\n 20.52173913,\n 26.57142857,\n 17.875,\n 20.9,\n 12.83333333,\n 9.12765957,\n 9.93548387,\n 11.50617284,\n 5.1875,\n 6.71428571,\n 4,\n 13.06153846,\n 10.61111111,\n 12.58333333,\n 14.4,\n 11.28571429,\n 6.66666667,\n 14,\n 15.31428571,\n 19.75,\n 21.41666667,\n 22.14285714,\n 20.4,\n 17.25,\n 9.4,\n 10.9,\n 6.4,\n 10.16666667,\n 5.28571429,\n 17,\n 6.97674419,\n 7.91666667,\n 9.10344828,\n 7.16666667,\n 9.6,\n 5.42857143,\n 10.47058824,\n 9,\n 10.83333333,\n 6.8,\n 13.16666667,\n 3,\n 2.14285714,\n 3.23529412,\n 5.5,\n 9.6,\n 1.4,\n 0,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 0,\n 12,\n 14,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 9,\n 2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n 8,\n 8,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 2,\n 8,\n 14,\n -2,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 8,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 2,\n 12,\n 3,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 13,\n 4,\n 12,\n 0,\n 2,\n -2,\n 1,\n 3,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n 2,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 15,\n 14,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 4.53311167,\n -0.9340487,\n 0.80306772,\n -2,\n 0.86542564,\n -2,\n 4.36918084,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3.95292381,\n -2,\n 5.8995166,\n 4.07013408,\n 12.12752951,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12.64211043,\n 3.18784163,\n 1.77587095,\n 0.63463608,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7.34631808,\n 4.23661773,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.11490031,\n 4.40589264,\n 0.81139367,\n 0.71135982,\n -2,\n 0.26720124,\n -2,\n -2,\n 31.99942176,\n 1.24625978,\n -2,\n -0.96921281,\n -2,\n -0.41794665,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.98546025,\n 4.70407142,\n -0.897257,\n -0.08241371,\n -0.20280476,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.52671581,\n -2,\n 4.64841341,\n 4.46576779,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 27.17312407,\n 25.91234071,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.39269529,\n -2,\n -2,\n 33.20198322,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.95725375,\n 0.01888476,\n 31.26036973,\n -0.95302103,\n 5.66446641,\n 4.55456532,\n -2,\n 5.4000148,\n 0.30826083,\n -2,\n 0.31055749,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.08790245,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 18.92518325,\n -2,\n 5.51064639,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.90252641,\n -2,\n 4.91069759,\n -0.27596288,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.03379739,\n 0.09282382,\n 0.989193,\n 0.23876615,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.88865073,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.12063788,\n -0.63446113,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n -1,\n 5,\n -1,\n 7,\n -1,\n -1,\n 10,\n -1,\n 12,\n 13,\n 14,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 18,\n 19,\n 20,\n 21,\n -1,\n -1,\n 24,\n 25,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 31,\n 32,\n 33,\n 34,\n -1,\n 36,\n -1,\n -1,\n 39,\n 40,\n -1,\n 42,\n -1,\n 44,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 48,\n 49,\n 50,\n 51,\n 52,\n -1,\n -1,\n 55,\n -1,\n 57,\n 58,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 63,\n 64,\n -1,\n -1,\n 67,\n -1,\n -1,\n 70,\n -1,\n -1,\n 73,\n 74,\n 75,\n 76,\n 77,\n 78,\n -1,\n 80,\n 81,\n -1,\n 83,\n -1,\n -1,\n 86,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 90,\n -1,\n 92,\n -1,\n -1,\n 95,\n -1,\n 97,\n 98,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 102,\n 103,\n 104,\n 105,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n -1,\n -1,\n 113,\n 114,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 30,\n 9,\n 4,\n -1,\n 6,\n -1,\n 8,\n -1,\n -1,\n 11,\n -1,\n 17,\n 16,\n 15,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 29,\n 28,\n 23,\n 22,\n -1,\n -1,\n 27,\n 26,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 72,\n 47,\n 38,\n 35,\n -1,\n 37,\n -1,\n -1,\n 46,\n 41,\n -1,\n 43,\n -1,\n 45,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 69,\n 62,\n 61,\n 54,\n 53,\n -1,\n -1,\n 56,\n -1,\n 60,\n 59,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 66,\n 65,\n -1,\n -1,\n 68,\n -1,\n -1,\n 71,\n -1,\n -1,\n 112,\n 101,\n 94,\n 89,\n 88,\n 79,\n -1,\n 85,\n 82,\n -1,\n 84,\n -1,\n -1,\n 87,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 91,\n -1,\n 93,\n -1,\n -1,\n 96,\n -1,\n 100,\n 99,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 109,\n 108,\n 107,\n 106,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n 116,\n 115,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 28.95238095,\n 21.375,\n 28.2,\n 19.57894737,\n 21.875,\n 17.90909091,\n 20.8,\n 15.5,\n 31.19753086,\n 40.77777778,\n 30,\n 34.73076923,\n 39.71428571,\n 36.83333333,\n 41.875,\n 28.91666667,\n 27.32608696,\n 28.09756098,\n 28.72222222,\n 32.5625,\n 35.85714286,\n 30,\n 25.65,\n 23.07142857,\n 18.625,\n 29,\n 31.66666667,\n 23.6,\n 21,\n 12.8986014,\n 17.67832168,\n 24.01923077,\n 27.65,\n 30.6,\n 26.66666667,\n 26,\n 27.42857143,\n 21.75,\n 23.08,\n 25.625,\n 21.88235294,\n 16.85714286,\n 25.4,\n 27.2,\n 23.6,\n 17,\n 14.05494505,\n 12.65333333,\n 14.11111111,\n 13.41025641,\n 17.5,\n 19.66666667,\n 15.33333333,\n 11.59259259,\n 8.88888889,\n 12.94444444,\n 14.30769231,\n 15.33333333,\n 13.42857143,\n 9.4,\n 18.66666667,\n 10.46666667,\n 13.71428571,\n 12.4,\n 14.44444444,\n 7.625,\n 6.6,\n 9.33333333,\n 20.625,\n 27.42857143,\n 15.33333333,\n 8.11888112,\n 9.34677419,\n 10.54444444,\n 12.04477612,\n 11.13043478,\n 12.55263158,\n 17.2,\n 11.84848485,\n 13.76190476,\n 16.66666667,\n 11.58333333,\n 13.85714286,\n 8.4,\n 8.5,\n 8.66666667,\n 8.33333333,\n 4.375,\n 14.04761905,\n 11,\n 16.33333333,\n 19.66666667,\n 13,\n 6.17391304,\n 11.14285714,\n 4,\n 4.8,\n 5.2,\n 4.4,\n 2.66666667,\n 6.17647059,\n 5.31818182,\n 4,\n 3.08333333,\n 3,\n 3.14285714,\n 6.2,\n 9.8,\n 7.75,\n 7,\n 8.5,\n 0.10526316,\n 0.15384615,\n 0.33333333,\n 0,\n 0,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 2,\n 4,\n 13,\n 4,\n 13,\n 4,\n 12,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 12,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 2,\n 0,\n 14,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 11,\n 11,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 7,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 8,\n 0,\n 3,\n 7,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 4,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 4,\n 13,\n 4,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n 0,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 0,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 4.21120273,\n 26.8370709,\n -0.53643247,\n 22.76971272,\n -0.74721679,\n 21.23556918,\n -0.87038358,\n 0.45313932,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.3613085,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.48932304,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.90490778,\n -0.93377803,\n 7.67745279,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.67004815,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.85240204,\n 4.32477989,\n 4.77362722,\n 0.83130308,\n -0.91837513,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.14400695,\n -2,\n -2,\n 25.94313431,\n 0.11852887,\n 0.00934898,\n 0.08515557,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3.2827023,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.18527288,\n -0.70918627,\n -2,\n 5.04560015,\n -2,\n 0.51193906,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.61839892,\n -2,\n 0.31038635,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.9338183,\n 2.92053287,\n 5.70597988,\n -0.00203687,\n -0.55011294,\n -2,\n 4.85697494,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.19411192,\n 39.54566103,\n 5.0504401,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.49315404,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.11107172,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.73198918,\n 25.42219984,\n 0.09935697,\n 22.01445566,\n -2,\n 5.36184104,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.35534225,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.17274688,\n -2,\n 5.2416595,\n 4.88005256,\n -2,\n -2,\n 31.15600871,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.05396442,\n 5.840732,\n -2,\n 5.23990478,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n 6,\n 7,\n 8,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 13,\n -1,\n -1,\n 16,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 20,\n 21,\n 22,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 26,\n -1,\n -1,\n 29,\n 30,\n 31,\n 32,\n 33,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 37,\n -1,\n -1,\n 40,\n 41,\n 42,\n 43,\n -1,\n -1,\n 46,\n -1,\n -1,\n 49,\n 50,\n -1,\n 52,\n -1,\n 54,\n -1,\n -1,\n 57,\n -1,\n 59,\n -1,\n -1,\n 62,\n 63,\n 64,\n 65,\n 66,\n -1,\n 68,\n -1,\n -1,\n 71,\n 72,\n 73,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 77,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 82,\n -1,\n -1,\n 85,\n 86,\n 87,\n 88,\n -1,\n 90,\n -1,\n -1,\n 93,\n -1,\n -1,\n 96,\n -1,\n 98,\n 99,\n -1,\n -1,\n 102,\n -1,\n -1,\n 105,\n 106,\n -1,\n 108,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 28,\n 19,\n 18,\n 15,\n 12,\n 11,\n 10,\n 9,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 14,\n -1,\n -1,\n 17,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 25,\n 24,\n 23,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 27,\n -1,\n -1,\n 84,\n 39,\n 36,\n 35,\n 34,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 38,\n -1,\n -1,\n 61,\n 48,\n 45,\n 44,\n -1,\n -1,\n 47,\n -1,\n -1,\n 56,\n 51,\n -1,\n 53,\n -1,\n 55,\n -1,\n -1,\n 58,\n -1,\n 60,\n -1,\n -1,\n 81,\n 80,\n 79,\n 70,\n 67,\n -1,\n 69,\n -1,\n -1,\n 76,\n 75,\n 74,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 78,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 83,\n -1,\n -1,\n 104,\n 95,\n 92,\n 89,\n -1,\n 91,\n -1,\n -1,\n 94,\n -1,\n -1,\n 97,\n -1,\n 101,\n 100,\n -1,\n -1,\n 103,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n 107,\n -1,\n 109,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 29.60606061,\n 33.171875,\n 34.91071429,\n 36.875,\n 39.96296296,\n 38.66666667,\n 36.64285714,\n 34.8,\n 37.66666667,\n 42.71428571,\n 44.5,\n 30.46153846,\n 28.4,\n 31.75,\n 30,\n 27.44444444,\n 33.28571429,\n 21,\n 23.08571429,\n 20,\n 19.5,\n 22,\n 17,\n 20.75,\n 27.2,\n 25.42857143,\n 28.75,\n 13.00684932,\n 16.45263158,\n 24.82857143,\n 27.69565217,\n 29.88235294,\n 27.55555556,\n 32.5,\n 21.5,\n 19.33333333,\n 21.85714286,\n 15.8,\n 14.56129032,\n 17.15584416,\n 12.34782609,\n 8.08333333,\n 9.85714286,\n 5.6,\n 17,\n 18.5,\n 15.2,\n 19.2037037,\n 16.44117647,\n 11.4,\n 17.31034483,\n 23.41666667,\n 13,\n 11.63636364,\n 15.5,\n 23.9,\n 16,\n 27.28571429,\n 23,\n 35,\n 12,\n 10.82539683,\n 9.80357143,\n 10.44,\n 12.94117647,\n 11,\n 14,\n 11.4,\n 16.16666667,\n 9.15151515,\n 7.68421053,\n 8.71428571,\n 11.42857143,\n 6,\n 4.8,\n 11.14285714,\n 14.33333333,\n 8.75,\n 4.5,\n 19,\n 16.93333333,\n 17,\n 16.85714286,\n 6.58823529,\n 8.24285714,\n 10.40540541,\n 12.81818182,\n 7.75,\n 15.71428571,\n 17,\n 14.42857143,\n 6.86666667,\n 3.6,\n 8.5,\n 5.81818182,\n 8.66666667,\n 5.18518519,\n 6.71428571,\n 8.33333333,\n 5.5,\n 3.53846154,\n 4.28571429,\n 2.66666667,\n 2.96875,\n 4.42857143,\n 8.75,\n 1.76923077,\n 0.375,\n 4,\n 0.18181818,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 0,\n 1,\n 1,\n 6,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 9,\n -2,\n 2,\n 7,\n 12,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n 1,\n 4,\n 2,\n 13,\n -2,\n 7,\n -2,\n 2,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 13,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n 3,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 14,\n 0,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 11,\n 4,\n 6,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 11,\n 13,\n -2,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 0,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 4.65819931,\n 4.56314472,\n 3.98051717,\n 1.60411213,\n 7.71046344,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.95194062,\n -0.45972004,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.52044647,\n 2.64098814,\n -2,\n 4.27388435,\n -0.43871566,\n -0.8909355,\n 4.12845214,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.70828603,\n -2,\n 4.23769836,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.56620971,\n 1.08189244,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8.03281648,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.99728132,\n -2,\n 4.68186396,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.45724542,\n 5.17260377,\n 29.89408002,\n 4.59394647,\n -0.75176404,\n -2,\n -0.40940506,\n -2,\n 4.47353324,\n -0.58784971,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.18873391,\n 0.6381214,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.58403267,\n -0.77639071,\n -2,\n 4.93152936,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.68052248,\n -2,\n 0.38254051,\n 14.62501503,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.81513508,\n 0.9599519,\n 4.89890824,\n 0.19073154,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.98041226,\n -2,\n 0.90825561,\n -2,\n -2,\n 32.90383176,\n 0.08736596,\n 28.22960857,\n -0.08914799,\n -2,\n 0.99292634,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.2618626,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.38833633,\n 0.06986073,\n 0.13815457,\n -2,\n 0.29341183,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6.00505544,\n 5.59812997,\n 5.31883186,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.97620948,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 9,\n 10,\n -1,\n -1,\n 13,\n 14,\n -1,\n 16,\n 17,\n 18,\n 19,\n -1,\n -1,\n 22,\n -1,\n 24,\n -1,\n -1,\n 27,\n 28,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 33,\n -1,\n -1,\n 36,\n -1,\n 38,\n -1,\n -1,\n 41,\n 42,\n 43,\n 44,\n 45,\n -1,\n 47,\n -1,\n 49,\n 50,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 54,\n 55,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 59,\n 60,\n -1,\n 62,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 66,\n -1,\n 68,\n 69,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 73,\n 74,\n 75,\n 76,\n -1,\n -1,\n 79,\n -1,\n 81,\n -1,\n -1,\n 84,\n 85,\n 86,\n 87,\n -1,\n 89,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 93,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 97,\n 98,\n 99,\n -1,\n 101,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 105,\n 106,\n 107,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 40,\n 35,\n 8,\n 7,\n 6,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 12,\n 11,\n -1,\n -1,\n 32,\n 15,\n -1,\n 31,\n 26,\n 21,\n 20,\n -1,\n -1,\n 23,\n -1,\n 25,\n -1,\n -1,\n 30,\n 29,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 34,\n -1,\n -1,\n 37,\n -1,\n 39,\n -1,\n -1,\n 72,\n 65,\n 58,\n 53,\n 46,\n -1,\n 48,\n -1,\n 52,\n 51,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 57,\n 56,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 64,\n 61,\n -1,\n 63,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 67,\n -1,\n 71,\n 70,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 96,\n 83,\n 78,\n 77,\n -1,\n -1,\n 80,\n -1,\n 82,\n -1,\n -1,\n 95,\n 92,\n 91,\n 88,\n -1,\n 90,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 94,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 104,\n 103,\n 100,\n -1,\n 102,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 112,\n 109,\n 108,\n -1,\n -1,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 26.85925926,\n 28.91964286,\n 39.4375,\n 40.72727273,\n 47.8,\n 34.83333333,\n 36.6,\n 27.16666667,\n 20.05882353,\n 21.5,\n 18.77777778,\n 28.69620253,\n 30.06153846,\n 37.85714286,\n 29.12068966,\n 30.60784314,\n 28.90625,\n 27.70588235,\n 28.9,\n 26,\n 30.26666667,\n 34.8,\n 28,\n 26.8,\n 29.2,\n 33.47368421,\n 32.14285714,\n 35.14285714,\n 29.14285714,\n 37.2,\n 18.28571429,\n 22.35714286,\n 25.4,\n 20.66666667,\n 16.82608696,\n 11.83333333,\n 18.58823529,\n 21.5,\n 16,\n 12.12109375,\n 15.78095238,\n 17.8875,\n 21.38461538,\n 23.22580645,\n 18.6,\n 24.11538462,\n 29.4,\n 22.85714286,\n 27.07142857,\n 24.375,\n 30.66666667,\n 14.42857143,\n 18.66666667,\n 15.15384615,\n 17,\n 13,\n 24.375,\n 11.39285714,\n 9.36842105,\n 13.2,\n 8,\n 11.6,\n 6,\n 15.66666667,\n 9.04,\n 16.14285714,\n 6.27777778,\n 9,\n 7,\n 10.66666667,\n 2,\n 9.57615894,\n 13.23076923,\n 16.74193548,\n 20.33333333,\n 15.16666667,\n 23.77777778,\n 13.375,\n 15.16666667,\n 12.3,\n 14.4,\n 10.2,\n 10.91489362,\n 11.53658537,\n 10.53846154,\n 11.89473684,\n 16.57142857,\n 9.16666667,\n 8.66666667,\n 9.66666667,\n 6.85714286,\n 13.26666667,\n 11.2,\n 14.3,\n 6.66666667,\n 5.67123288,\n 7.25,\n 5.15,\n 5.71428571,\n 4.84615385,\n 3.375,\n 7.2,\n 12.5,\n 4.68888889,\n 6.59375,\n 8.77777778,\n 4.42857143,\n 11.54545455,\n 3.78571429,\n 8.4,\n 1.22222222,\n 0,\n ],\n}] as const;",[268],"195a0b3b-7e8a-4c1a-816f-3a3a36b2479c","first400-trees-4.ts","b597b498-ab9e-11f1-b55f-1607ee4eb77e",129,["D",1788883357811],[275],"9c421bfb-ec62-4bdc-b4ae-75e68a5a66fb","first400-trees-3.ts","b2a13f7a-ab9e-11f1-b382-1607ee4eb77e",126,["D",1788883352897],[281],"aaa5d3d9-75e9-4054-946c-6a9bb551e66c","first400-trees-2.ts","af64a842-ab9e-11f1-aea1-1607ee4eb77e",123,["D",1788883348337],[287],"aada16c2-aee7-40c8-903c-0832dce5584d","first400-trees-1.ts","78758680-ab9e-11f1-8cca-1607ee4eb77e",120,["D",1788883302327],[293],"87d6c8b2-0010-49e7-9ea1-8bc8300bb9c2","engine.ts","520ed0e6-ab9e-11f1-84ac-1607ee4eb77e",102,["D",1788883191905],"import { CONFIG, IS_LIVE } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport { addDays, fixedIssueAt, mountainToUtc, waterYear } from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport { QUESTIONS } from \"./questions.ts\";\nimport { fetchBasinSnapshot } from \"./sources.ts\";\nimport {\n cachePublicFeed,\n ensureSeason,\n finalizePrediction,\n getPrediction,\n initDb,\n listPredictions,\n lockPrediction,\n recentRuns,\n recordEvent,\n recordRun,\n} from \"./storage.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, QuestionDefinition } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction canonical(value: any): string {\n if (Array.isArray(value)) return `[${value.map(canonical).join(\",\")}]`;\n if (value && typeof value === \"object\") {\n return `{${\n Object.keys(value).sort().map((key) =>\n `${JSON.stringify(key)}:${canonical(value[key])}`\n ).join(\",\")\n }}`;\n }\n return JSON.stringify(value);\n}\n\nasync function sha256(value: string): Promise {\n const digest = await crypto.subtle.digest(\n \"SHA-256\",\n new TextEncoder().encode(value),\n );\n return [...new Uint8Array(digest)].map((byte) =>\n byte.toString(16).padStart(2, \"0\")\n ).join(\"\");\n}\n\nfunction inputRecord(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n return {\n captured_at: snapshot.capturedAt.toISOString(),\n cutoff_at: snapshot.cutoffAt.toISOString(),\n current: {\n date: snapshot.current.date.toISOString(),\n value: snapshot.current.value,\n },\n features: snapshot.features,\n milestones: {\n runoff_year: m.runoffYear,\n first_400: m.first400 &&\n { date: m.first400.date.toISOString(), value: m.first400.value },\n peak_daily: m.peakDaily &&\n { date: m.peakDaily.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakDaily.value },\n peak_instant: m.peakInstant &&\n { date: m.peakInstant.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakInstant.value },\n tubing_trigger: m.tubingForecastTrigger &&\n {\n date: m.tubingForecastTrigger.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.tubingForecastTrigger.value,\n },\n tubing_opening: m.tubingOpening?.toISOString() || null,\n counts: m.counts,\n strength: m.strength,\n persistent_snow: m.persistentSnow &&\n {\n date: m.persistentSnow.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.persistentSnow.value,\n },\n peak_swe: m.peakSwe &&\n { date: m.peakSwe.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakSwe.value },\n },\n };\n}\n\nfunction dueAt(\n question: QuestionDefinition,\n runoffYear: number,\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n): Date | null {\n if (question.issueKind === \"fixed\") {\n return fixedIssueAt(runoffYear, question.issueMonth!, question.issueDay!);\n }\n return question.trigger?.(snapshot) || null;\n}\n\nfunction publicPrediction(row: any): Record {\n return {\n number: Number(row.question_number),\n key: row.question_key,\n title: row.title,\n issue_kind: row.issue_kind,\n issue_due_at: row.issue_due_at,\n locked_at: row.locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at: row.input_cutoff_at,\n model_version: row.model_version,\n prediction: JSON.parse(row.prediction_json),\n status: row.status,\n actual: row.actual_json ? JSON.parse(row.actual_json) : null,\n score: row.score,\n scored_at: row.scored_at,\n };\n}\n\nasync function refreshPublicCache(runoffYear: number): Promise {\n const live = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"live\");\n const shadow = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"shadow\");\n const runs = await recentRuns(5);\n const feed = {\n schema_version: 1,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n game_state: live.length ? \"live\" : \"shadow-testing\",\n model: MODEL_BUNDLE,\n updated_at: new Date().toISOString(),\n predictions: live.map(publicPrediction),\n shadow_summary: {\n locked: shadow.length,\n scored: shadow.filter((row) => row.score).length,\n },\n health: runs.map((run) => ({\n ran_at: run.ran_at,\n mode: run.mode,\n success: Boolean(run.success),\n message: run.message,\n })),\n };\n await cachePublicFeed(`scoreboard-${runoffYear}`, feed);\n await cachePublicFeed(\"scoreboard-current\", feed);\n}\n\nexport async function runAutomation(\n now = new Date(),\n): Promise> {\n await initDb();\n const mode = IS_LIVE ? \"live\" : \"shadow\";\n const runoffYear = waterYear(now);\n if (runoffYear < CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear) {\n // September is a preseason health check. It deliberately creates no locks,\n // but proves the official sources, models, database, cron and public cache work.\n try {\n const current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n const message =\n `Preseason ${mode} check passed. Water year ${CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear} becomes eligible on October 1.`;\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n preseason: true,\n water_year: CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear,\n message,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, `Preseason check failed: ${message}`);\n throw error;\n }\n }\n const openedAt = mountainToUtc(runoffYear - 1, 10, 1, 0);\n await ensureSeason(runoffYear, MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version, openedAt);\n let current: BasinSnapshot;\n try {\n current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, message);\n throw error;\n }\n\n const actions: string[] = [];\n const lockSnapshots = new Map();\n for (const question of QUESTIONS) {\n let stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n if (!stored) {\n const issueAt = dueAt(question, runoffYear, current);\n if (issueAt && now >= issueAt) {\n const ageHours = (now.getTime() - issueAt.getTime()) / 3_600_000;\n if (ageHours > CONFIG.fixedLockGraceHours) {\n actions.push(\n `P${question.number} needs review: issue window was missed`,\n );\n } else {\n const cacheKey = issueAt.toISOString();\n let lockSnapshot = lockSnapshots.get(cacheKey);\n if (!lockSnapshot) {\n lockSnapshot = await fetchBasinSnapshot(issueAt);\n lockSnapshots.set(cacheKey, lockSnapshot);\n }\n const prediction = question.calculate(lockSnapshot);\n const inputs = inputRecord(lockSnapshot);\n const predictionJson = canonical(prediction);\n const inputsJson = canonical(inputs);\n const inserted = await lockPrediction({\n water_year: runoffYear,\n question_number: question.number,\n question_key: question.key,\n title: question.title,\n mode,\n issue_kind: question.issueKind,\n issue_due_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n locked_at: now.toISOString(),\n input_cutoff_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n model_version: MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version,\n model_hash: MODEL_BUNDLE.sha256,\n prediction_json: predictionJson,\n inputs_json: inputsJson,\n inputs_hash: await sha256(inputsJson),\n source_status_json: canonical(lockSnapshot.sourceStatus),\n status: \"locked\",\n actual_json: null,\n score: null,\n scored_at: null,\n });\n if (inserted) {\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_lock_created`,\n now,\n { issue_at: issueAt.toISOString(), prediction },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} ${mode} lock created`);\n stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n }\n }\n }\n }\n if (stored && !stored.scored_at && question.final(current)) {\n const actual = question.actual(current);\n if (actual) {\n const prediction = JSON.parse(stored.prediction_json);\n const hit = question.score(prediction, actual);\n await finalizePrediction(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n mode,\n canonical(actual),\n hit,\n now,\n );\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_score_finalized`,\n now,\n { actual, score: hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\" },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} scored ${hit ? \"HIT\" : \"MISS\"}`);\n }\n }\n }\n const message = actions.length\n ? actions.join(\"; \")\n : \"Data refreshed; no lock or score was due.\";\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(runoffYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n actions,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n}",[299],"62109e24-6ec6-45e4-9c7f-6c3eaaf8e9fb","engine-old.ts","a6362ff6-ab9a-11f1-9797-1607ee4eb77e",94,["D",1788883026203],[306],"7a8908c5-6892-4e95-9214-8dda1b63db29","dates.ts","682186ee-ab9e-11f1-b382-1607ee4eb77e",114,["D",1788883228591],"import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\n\nconst DAY = 86_400_000;\n\nexport function addDays(date: Date, days: number): Date {\n return new Date(date.getTime() + days * DAY);\n}\n\nexport function isoDay(date: Date): string {\n return date.toISOString().slice(0, 10);\n}\n\nexport function mountainParts(\n date: Date,\n): { year: number; month: number; day: number; hour: number } {\n const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat(\"en-US\", {\n timeZone: CONFIG.timeZone,\n year: \"numeric\",\n month: \"numeric\",\n day: \"numeric\",\n hour: \"numeric\",\n hourCycle: \"h23\",\n }).formatToParts(date);\n const values = Object.fromEntries(\n parts.filter((part) => part.type !== \"literal\").map((\n part,\n ) => [part.type, Number(part.value)]),\n );\n return values as { year: number; month: number; day: number; hour: number };\n}\n\n// Converts a wall-clock time in America/Denver to UTC without requiring a date library.\nexport function mountainToUtc(\n year: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n hour = 0,\n minute = 0,\n): Date {\n let guess = new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, hour, minute));\n for (let attempt = 0; attempt < 3; attempt += 1) {\n const seen = mountainParts(guess);\n const wanted = Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, hour, minute);\n const actual = Date.UTC(\n seen.year,\n seen.month - 1,\n seen.day,\n seen.hour,\n minute,\n );\n guess = new Date(guess.getTime() + wanted - actual);\n }\n return guess;\n}\n\nexport function mountainCalendarDate(date: Date): Date {\n const p = mountainParts(date);\n return new Date(Date.UTC(p.year, p.month - 1, p.day, 12));\n}\n\nexport function waterYear(date: Date): number {\n const p = mountainParts(date);\n return p.month >= 10 ? p.year + 1 : p.year;\n}\n\nexport function fixedIssueAt(\n runoffYear: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n): Date {\n const year = month >= 10 ? runoffYear - 1 : runoffYear;\n return mountainToUtc(year, month, day, CONFIG.lockHourMountain);\n}\n\nexport function firstMondayOfSeptember(year: number): Date {\n const first = new Date(Date.UTC(year, 8, 1, 12));\n const offset = (8 - first.getUTCDay()) % 7;\n return addDays(first, offset);\n}\n\nexport function daysBetween(a: Date, b: Date): number {\n return Math.round(\n (mountainCalendarDate(a).getTime() - mountainCalendarDate(b).getTime()) /\n DAY,\n );\n}\n\nexport function afterMountainDay(\n date: Date,\n year: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n): boolean {\n return mountainCalendarDate(date) >\n new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, 23, 59, 59));\n}",[312],"5c5fb06d-0c56-490b-8d6c-f0b6e727cedf","dates-old.ts","8d25a690-ab9a-11f1-ade0-1607ee4eb77e",74,["D",1788882955145],[319],"25356f1b-d067-4cfa-813e-b15e7d267006","cron.ts","a7fd641c-ab9a-11f1-83fc-1607ee4eb77e",98,["D",1788883042782],9,"interval","import { runAutomation } from \"./engine.ts\";\n\nexport default async function (_interval: { lastRunAt?: Date }): Promise {\n const result = await runAutomation(new Date());\n console.log(JSON.stringify(result));\n}",[325],"2105a0ef-fb80-4e08-8cc6-64a92f17070e","config.ts","62a61c66-ab9e-11f1-997f-1607ee4eb77e",106,["D",1788883219504],"export const CONFIG = {\n username: \"pagosaoutside\",\n projectName: \"black-hat-hydrology\",\n timeZone: \"America/Denver\",\n lockHourMountain: 9,\n fixedLockGraceHours: 36,\n firstAutomatedWaterYear: 2027,\n // Leave this in shadow mode until the preseason checks have passed.\n mode: String(\n (globalThis as any).Deno?.env?.get?.(\"BLACK_HAT_MODE\") || \"shadow\",\n ).toLowerCase(),\n allowedOrigins: new Set([\n \"https://pagosaoutside.com\",\n \"https://www.pagosaoutside.com\",\n ]),\n usgsSite: \"09342500\",\n snotelStations: [\"840:CO:SNTL\", \"874:CO:SNTL\"],\n modelVersion: \"0.5.0-2027-game\",\n} as const;\n\nexport const IS_LIVE = CONFIG.mode === \"live\";",[334],"8bf1d3fe-d7d6-423b-9132-ebd97d5addd9","backup2-types.ts","9a8b01ea-ab9a-11f1-9797-1607ee4eb77e",107,["D",1788883221085],[341],"df81ab01-bb46-4f81-9cee-81ddf782b407","backup2-storage.ts","e05769d6-ab9d-11f1-8b5e-1607ee4eb77e",142,["D",1788883399233],"import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n isoDay,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n waterYear,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, FlowPoint, Milestones, Snotel } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nconst average = (values: unknown[]): number | null => {\n const valid = values.map(Number).filter(Number.isFinite);\n return valid.length\n ? valid.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / valid.length\n : null;\n};\n\nasync function fetchJson(url: string, timeout = 20_000): Promise {\n const controller = new AbortController();\n const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeout);\n try {\n const response = await fetch(url, {\n signal: controller.signal,\n headers: { Accept: \"application/json\" },\n });\n if (!response.ok) {\n const parsed = new URL(url);\n throw new Error(\n `${parsed.hostname}${parsed.pathname} returned ${response.status}`,\n );\n }\n return await response.json();\n } finally {\n clearTimeout(timer);\n }\n}\n\nfunction parseUsgs(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): FlowPoint[] {\n const series = payload?.value?.timeSeries?.[0]?.values?.[0]?.value || [];\n return series.map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(item.dateTime),\n value: Number(item.value),\n }))\n .filter((item: FlowPoint) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value) && item.value >= 0\n )\n .sort((a: FlowPoint, b: FlowPoint) => a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime());\n}\n\nfunction parseSnotel(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): Snotel {\n const output: Snotel = {};\n for (const station of payload || []) {\n const stationId = String(station.stationTriplet);\n output[stationId] ||= {};\n for (const series of station.data || []) {\n const code = series.stationElement?.elementCode;\n if (!code) continue;\n output[stationId][code] = (series.values || []).map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(`${item.date}T12:00:00Z`),\n value: Number(item.value),\n median: item.median === null || item.median === undefined\n ? null\n : Number(item.median),\n })).filter((item: any) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n }\n }\n return output;\n}\n\nfunction latestAtOrBefore(\n points: T[],\n date: Date,\n): T | null {\n const eligible = (points || []).filter((point) => point.date <= date);\n return eligible.length ? eligible[eligible.length - 1] : null;\n}\n\nfunction stationAverage(\n snotel: Snotel,\n element: string,\n date: Date,\n field: \"value\" | \"median\" = \"value\",\n): number | null {\n return average(\n Object.values(snotel).map((station) =>\n (latestAtOrBefore(station[element] || [], date) as any)?.[field]\n ),\n );\n}\n\nfunction waterYearDay(date: Date): number {\n const year = date.getUTCMonth() >= 9\n ? date.getUTCFullYear()\n : date.getUTCFullYear() - 1;\n return Math.round(\n (Date.UTC(date.getUTCFullYear(), date.getUTCMonth(), date.getUTCDate()) -\n Date.UTC(year, 9, 1)) / 86_400_000,\n );\n}\n\nfunction buildFeatures(\n flowDaily: FlowPoint[],\n currentFlow: number,\n snotel: Snotel,\n now: Date,\n): Record {\n const date7 = addDays(now, -7);\n const date30 = addDays(now, -30);\n const recent7 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const recent30 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date30 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const flow7Ago = latestAtOrBefore(flowDaily, date7)?.value ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean7 = average(recent7) ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean30 = average(recent30) ?? flowMean7;\n const swe = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now) ?? 0;\n const sweMedian = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now, \"median\") ?? 0;\n const swe7Ago = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date7) ?? swe;\n const sweRatio = sweMedian > 0.05\n ? Math.min(3, Math.max(0, swe / sweMedian))\n : swe <= 0.05\n ? 0\n : 3;\n const stationIds = Object.keys(snotel);\n const temperatures: number[] = [];\n for (const id of stationIds) {\n for (const point of snotel[id].TAVG || []) {\n if (point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now) {\n temperatures.push(point.value);\n }\n }\n }\n const temp7 = average(temperatures) ?? 32;\n const precipitationChange = (startDate: Date) =>\n average(stationIds.map((id) => {\n const current = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], now)?.value;\n const earlier = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], startDate)?.value;\n return Number.isFinite(current) && Number.isFinite(earlier)\n ? Math.max(0, Number(current) - Number(earlier))\n : null;\n })) ?? 0;\n const precip7 = precipitationChange(date7);\n const precip30 = precipitationChange(date30);\n const snowPresent = swe > 0.05 ? 1 : 0;\n const angle = 2 * Math.PI * waterYearDay(now) / 365.25;\n return {\n log_flow: Math.log1p(currentFlow),\n log_flow_mean_7d: Math.log1p(flowMean7),\n log_flow_mean_30d: Math.log1p(flowMean30),\n relative_flow_change_7d: (currentFlow - flow7Ago) /\n (Math.abs(flowMean7) + 30),\n swe_in: swe,\n swe_ratio: sweRatio,\n swe_change_7d: swe - swe7Ago,\n temperature_scaled: (temp7 - 32) / 20,\n prec_total_7d: precip7,\n prec_total_30d: precip30,\n snow_present: snowPresent,\n season_sin: Math.sin(angle),\n season_cos: Math.cos(angle),\n season_sin_2: Math.sin(2 * angle),\n season_cos_2: Math.cos(2 * angle),\n melt_pressure: swe * Math.max(temp7 - 32, 0) / 100,\n rain_without_snow: precip7 * (1 - snowPresent),\n current_flow: currentFlow,\n swe_median: sweMedian,\n temp_7d: temp7,\n precip_7d: precip7,\n };\n}\n\nasync function fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n runoffYear: number,\n cutoffAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n const start = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1));\n const end = new Date(\n Math.min(cutoffAt.getTime(), Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59)),\n );\n const candidate = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= end\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n if (!candidate) return null;\n const url =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, -1))\n }&endDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, 2))\n }¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const values = parseUsgs(await fetchJson(url), cutoffAt);\n return values.reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n}\n\nfunction findTubingOpening(\n series: FlowPoint[],\n after: Date | null,\n): Date | null {\n if (!after) return null;\n const ordered = series.filter((item) => item.date > after).sort((a, b) =>\n a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime()\n );\n for (let index = 0; index < ordered.length; index += 1) {\n const endPoint = ordered[index];\n const startTime = endPoint.date.getTime() - 24 * 3_600_000;\n const window = ordered.filter((item) =>\n item.date.getTime() >= startTime && item.date <= endPoint.date\n );\n if (window.length < 4) continue;\n if (\n window.at(-1)!.date.getTime() - window[0].date.getTime() < 23 * 3_600_000\n ) continue;\n if (window.every((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400)) {\n return endPoint.date;\n }\n }\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n instantaneous: FlowPoint[],\n snotel: Snotel,\n current: FlowPoint,\n peakInstant: FlowPoint | null,\n): Milestones {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(current.date);\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const springStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 2, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowEnd = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59));\n const recreationStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 4, 1, 12));\n const laborDay = firstMondayOfSeptember(runoffYear);\n laborDay.setUTCHours(23, 59, 59, 999);\n const waterYearDaily = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= waterYearStart && item.date <= current.date\n );\n const springDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) => item.date >= springStart);\n const first400 = springDaily.find((item) => item.value >= 400) || null;\n const peakDaily = springDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= peakWindowStart && item.date <= peakWindowEnd\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeak = peakDaily\n ? Math.floor(\n (current.date.getTime() - peakDaily.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000,\n )\n : 0;\n const dropFromPeak = peakDaily?.value\n ? 1 - current.value / peakDaily.value\n : 0;\n const peakFlowLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakDaily && daysSincePeak >= 6 && dropFromPeak >= 0.18,\n );\n let tubingForecastTrigger: FlowPoint | null = null;\n if (peakDaily) {\n const peakIndex = springDaily.findIndex((item) =>\n isoDay(item.date) === isoDay(peakDaily.date) &&\n item.value === peakDaily.value\n );\n for (\n let index = Math.max(2, peakIndex + 1);\n index < springDaily.length;\n index += 1\n ) {\n const item = springDaily[index];\n const fallingThreeDay = item.value < springDaily[index - 2].value;\n const eligible = peakDaily.value >= 800\n ? item.value < 800\n : peakFlowLikelyPassed;\n if (eligible && fallingThreeDay) {\n tubingForecastTrigger = item;\n break;\n }\n }\n }\n const dailyTubingFallback = peakDaily\n ? springDaily.find((item) =>\n item.date > peakDaily.date && item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n )?.date || null\n : null;\n const tubingOpening =\n findTubingOpening(instantaneous, peakDaily?.date || null) ||\n dailyTubingFallback;\n const seasonDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart && item.date <= laborDay &&\n item.date <= current.date\n );\n const counts = {\n p300: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 300).length,\n p600: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 600).length,\n p800: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 800).length,\n tubing:\n seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400).length,\n };\n const strengthDays = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart &&\n item.date <= new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 5, 30, 23, 59))\n );\n const strength = average(strengthDays.map((item) => item.value));\n const snowDates = [\n ...new Set(\n Object.values(snotel).flatMap((station) =>\n (station.WTEQ || []).map((item) => isoDay(item.date))\n ),\n ),\n ]\n .map((value) => new Date(`${value}T12:00:00Z`)).filter((date) =>\n date >= waterYearStart && date <= current.date\n ).sort((a, b) => a.getTime() - b.getTime());\n const snowSeries = snowDates.map((date) => ({\n date,\n value: stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date),\n }))\n .filter((item): item is { date: Date; value: number } =>\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n let persistentSnow = null;\n for (let index = 0; index <= snowSeries.length - 7; index += 1) {\n const window = snowSeries.slice(index, index + 7);\n if (window[0].value >= 1 && window.every((item) => item.value >= 0.5)) {\n persistentSnow = window[0];\n break;\n }\n }\n const peakSwe = snowSeries.reduce<{ date: Date; value: number } | null>(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeakSwe = peakSwe\n ? Math.floor((current.date.getTime() - peakSwe.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000)\n : 0;\n const currentSwe = snowSeries.at(-1)?.value || 0;\n const peakSweLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakSwe && peakSwe.value >= 1 && daysSincePeakSwe >= 14 &&\n currentSwe <= peakSwe.value * 0.7,\n );\n return {\n runoffYear,\n laborDay,\n first400,\n peakDaily,\n peakInstant,\n peakFlowLikelyPassed,\n tubingForecastTrigger,\n tubingOpening,\n counts,\n strength,\n persistentSnow,\n peakSwe,\n peakSweLikelyPassed,\n };\n}\n\nexport async function fetchBasinSnapshot(\n cutoffAt = new Date(),\n): Promise {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(cutoffAt);\n // Models use 7- and 30-day history. Starting 45 days before the water year\n // also prevents the October 1 lock from running with an empty daily series.\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const start = isoDay(addDays(waterYearStart, -45));\n const end = isoDay(cutoffAt);\n const dailyUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${start}&endDT=${end}¶meterCd=00060&statCd=00003&siteStatus=all`;\n const instantUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&period=P60D¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const stationParam = encodeURIComponent(CONFIG.snotelStations.join(\",\"));\n const snotelUrl =\n `https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdbRestApi/services/v1/data?stationTriplets=${stationParam}&elements=WTEQ%2CSNWD%2CPREC%2CTAVG&duration=DAILY&beginDate=${start}&endDate=${end}&periodRef=END¢ralTendencyType=MEDIAN&returnFlags=false&returnOriginalValues=false&returnSuspectData=false`;\n const [dailyPayload, instantPayload, snowPayload] = await Promise.all([\n fetchJson(dailyUrl),\n fetchJson(instantUrl),\n fetchJson(snotelUrl),\n ]);\n const dailyFlow = parseUsgs(dailyPayload, cutoffAt);\n const instantaneous = parseUsgs(instantPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!dailyFlow.length || !instantaneous.length) {\n throw new Error(\"The Pagosa USGS gauge did not return enough data\");\n }\n const snotel = parseSnotel(snowPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!Object.keys(snotel).length) {\n throw new Error(\"The headwater SNOTEL stations did not return enough data\");\n }\n const latestSnotelAt = Object.values(snotel)\n .flatMap((station) => Object.values(station).flat())\n .reduce(\n (latest, point) => !latest || point.date > latest ? point.date : latest,\n null,\n );\n const current = instantaneous.at(-1)!;\n const features = buildFeatures(\n dailyFlow,\n current.value,\n snotel,\n current.date,\n );\n const peakInstant = await fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow,\n runoffYear,\n cutoffAt,\n ).catch(() => null);\n const milestones = deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow,\n instantaneous,\n snotel,\n current,\n peakInstant,\n );\n return {\n capturedAt: new Date(),\n cutoffAt,\n current,\n instantaneous,\n dailyFlow,\n snotel,\n features,\n milestones,\n sourceStatus: {\n usgs_site: CONFIG.usgsSite,\n usgs_latest_at: current.date.toISOString(),\n usgs_daily_points: dailyFlow.length,\n usgs_instant_points: instantaneous.length,\n snotel_stations: Object.keys(snotel),\n snotel_latest_day: latestSnotelAt ? isoDay(latestSnotelAt) : null,\n },\n };\n}\n// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const row: any = result.rows[0];\n return row\n ? {\n value: JSON.parse(String(row.value_json)),\n updatedAt: String(row.updated_at),\n }\n : null;\n}",[347],"104cfb6c-a8d3-47d4-b366-972a8871d8c6","backup2-sources.ts","e7307cca-ab9d-11f1-ba80-1607ee4eb77e",146,["D",1788883404303],"import { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n daysBetween,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n mountainToUtc,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport {\n clamp,\n runRightNowModel,\n tubingOpeningForecast,\n} from \"./model-runtime.ts\";\nimport type {\n BasinSnapshot,\n PredictionValue,\n QuestionDefinition,\n} from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction context(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n const today = mountainCalendarDate(snapshot.cutoffAt);\n const daysLeft = Math.max(\n 0,\n Math.ceil((m.laborDay.getTime() - today.getTime()) / 86_400_000),\n );\n return {\n ...snapshot.features,\n count300: m.counts.p300,\n count600: m.counts.p600,\n count800: m.counts.p800,\n countTubing: m.counts.tubing,\n daysLeft,\n };\n}\n\nfunction requiredModel(name: string, snapshot: BasinSnapshot): number {\n const value = runRightNowModel(name, context(snapshot));\n if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n throw new Error(`Model ${name} could not produce a prediction`);\n }\n return Number(value);\n}\n\nfunction predictionDate(\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n model: string,\n maximumDays: number,\n): Date {\n const days = Math.round(\n clamp(requiredModel(model, snapshot), 0, maximumDays),\n );\n return addDays(mountainCalendarDate(snapshot.cutoffAt), days);\n}\n\nfunction countRemainingTubingDays(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): number | null {\n const opening = snapshot.milestones.tubingOpening;\n if (!opening) return null;\n const start = addDays(mountainCalendarDate(opening), 1);\n return snapshot.dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= snapshot.milestones.laborDay &&\n item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n ).length;\n}\n\nconst dateActual = (date: Date | null, key = \"date\"): PredictionValue | null =>\n date ? { [key]: date.toISOString() } : null;\nconst dateHit = (\n prediction: PredictionValue,\n actual: PredictionValue,\n tolerance: number,\n key = \"date\",\n) =>\n Math.abs(\n daysBetween(\n new Date(String(prediction[key])),\n new Date(String(actual[key])),\n ),\n ) <= tolerance;\nconst numberHit = (\n prediction: PredictionValue,\n actual: PredictionValue,\n tolerance: (actual: number) => number,\n key = \"value\",\n) =>\n Math.abs(Number(prediction[key]) - Number(actual[key])) <=\n tolerance(Number(actual[key]));\n\nexport const QUESTIONS: QuestionDefinition[] = [\n {\n number: 1,\n key: \"persistent-snow\",\n title: \"First persistent headwater snowpack\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 10,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: predictionDate(s, \"persistent\", 100).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.persistentSnow?.date || null),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.persistentSnow),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 14),\n },\n {\n number: 2,\n key: \"peak-swe\",\n title: \"Peak headwater snowpack\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 2,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n value:\n Math.round(\n Math.max(\n s.milestones.peakSwe?.value || 0,\n requiredModel(\"peak_swe\", s),\n ) * 10,\n ) / 10,\n unit: \"in\",\n }),\n actual: (s) =>\n s.milestones.peakSwe\n ? {\n value: s.milestones.peakSwe.value,\n date: s.milestones.peakSwe.date.toISOString(),\n unit: \"in\",\n }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.milestones.peakSweLikelyPassed,\n score: (p, a) => numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(2, value * 0.2)),\n },\n {\n number: 3,\n key: \"first-400\",\n title: \"First 400+ CFS day\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 3,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: predictionDate(s, \"first400\", 80).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.first400?.date || null),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.first400),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 10),\n },\n {\n number: 4,\n key: \"season-strength\",\n title: \"May–June rafting-season strength\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 4,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n value: Math.max(0, Math.round(requiredModel(\"river_strength\", s))),\n unit: \"cfs_average\",\n }),\n actual: (s) =>\n Number.isFinite(s.milestones.strength)\n ? { value: s.milestones.strength, unit: \"cfs_average\" }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.cutoffAt > mountainToUtc(s.milestones.runoffYear, 7, 1, 0),\n score: (p, a) => numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(100, value * 0.3)),\n },\n {\n number: 5,\n key: \"spring-peak\",\n title: \"Spring peak flow\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 4,\n issueDay: 15,\n calculate: (s) => {\n const date = predictionDate(s, \"spring_peak_days\", 70);\n const minutes =\n Math.round(Number(MODEL_BUNDLE.seasonal_peak_time_minutes_p50) / 15) *\n 15;\n const minuteOfDay = ((minutes % 1440) + 1440) % 1440;\n const timestamp = mountainToUtc(\n date.getUTCFullYear(),\n date.getUTCMonth() + 1,\n date.getUTCDate(),\n Math.floor(minuteOfDay / 60),\n minuteOfDay % 60,\n );\n const flow = Math.round(\n Math.max(\n s.current.value,\n s.milestones.peakDaily?.value || 0,\n requiredModel(\"spring_peak_flow\", s),\n ),\n );\n return { timestamp: timestamp.toISOString(), value: flow, unit: \"cfs\" };\n },\n actual: (s) =>\n s.milestones.peakInstant\n ? {\n timestamp: s.milestones.peakInstant.date.toISOString(),\n value: s.milestones.peakInstant.value,\n unit: \"cfs\",\n }\n : null,\n final: (s) => s.cutoffAt > mountainToUtc(s.milestones.runoffYear, 8, 1, 0),\n score: (p, a) => {\n const hours =\n Math.abs(\n new Date(String(p.timestamp)).getTime() -\n new Date(String(a.timestamp)).getTime(),\n ) / 3_600_000;\n return hours <= 168 &&\n numberHit(p, a, (value) => Math.max(250, value * 0.3));\n },\n },\n {\n number: 6,\n key: \"rafting-days\",\n title: \"Rafting-flow days\",\n issueKind: \"fixed\",\n issueMonth: 5,\n issueDay: 1,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n p300: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p300, requiredModel(\"days_ge_300\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p300,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n p600: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p600, requiredModel(\"days_ge_600\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p600,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n p800: Math.round(\n clamp(\n Math.max(s.milestones.counts.p800, requiredModel(\"days_ge_800\", s)),\n s.milestones.counts.p800,\n 140,\n ),\n ),\n }),\n actual: (s) => ({ ...s.milestones.counts }),\n final: (s) =>\n s.cutoffAt > addDays(firstMondayOfSeptember(s.milestones.runoffYear), 1),\n score: (p, a) =>\n [\"p300\", \"p600\", \"p800\"].filter((key) =>\n Math.abs(Number(p[key]) - Number(a[key])) <= 10\n ).length >= 2,\n },\n {\n number: 7,\n key: \"tubing-opening\",\n title: \"Tubing Season Opening Day\",\n issueKind: \"event\",\n trigger: (s) => s.milestones.tubingForecastTrigger?.date || null,\n calculate: (s) => ({\n date: tubingOpeningForecast(s.features, s.cutoffAt).toISOString(),\n }),\n actual: (s) => dateActual(s.milestones.tubingOpening),\n final: (s) => Boolean(s.milestones.tubingOpening),\n score: (p, a) => dateHit(p, a, 7),\n },\n {\n number: 8,\n key: \"remaining-tubing-days\",\n title: \"Remaining tubing-range days\",\n issueKind: \"event\",\n trigger: (s) => s.milestones.tubingOpening,\n calculate: (s) => {\n const observed = countRemainingTubingDays(s) || 0;\n const preOpeningDays = Math.max(0, s.milestones.counts.tubing - observed);\n const allSeasonEstimate = Math.max(\n observed,\n requiredModel(\"tubing_days\", s) - preOpeningDays,\n );\n return {\n value: Math.round(\n clamp(allSeasonEstimate, observed, observed + context(s).daysLeft),\n ),\n unit: \"days\",\n };\n },\n actual: (s) => {\n const value = countRemainingTubingDays(s);\n return value === null ? null : { value, unit: \"days\" };\n },\n final: (s) =>\n s.cutoffAt > addDays(firstMondayOfSeptember(s.milestones.runoffYear), 1),\n score: (p, a) => Math.abs(Number(p.value) - Number(a.value)) <= 10,\n },\n];\nimport { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n isoDay,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n waterYear,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, FlowPoint, Milestones, Snotel } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nconst average = (values: unknown[]): number | null => {\n const valid = values.map(Number).filter(Number.isFinite);\n return valid.length\n ? valid.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / valid.length\n : null;\n};\n\nasync function fetchJson(url: string, timeout = 20_000): Promise {\n const controller = new AbortController();\n const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeout);\n try {\n const response = await fetch(url, {\n signal: controller.signal,\n headers: { Accept: \"application/json\" },\n });\n if (!response.ok) {\n const parsed = new URL(url);\n throw new Error(\n `${parsed.hostname}${parsed.pathname} returned ${response.status}`,\n );\n }\n return await response.json();\n } finally {\n clearTimeout(timer);\n }\n}\n\nfunction parseUsgs(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): FlowPoint[] {\n const series = payload?.value?.timeSeries?.[0]?.values?.[0]?.value || [];\n return series.map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(item.dateTime),\n value: Number(item.value),\n }))\n .filter((item: FlowPoint) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value) && item.value >= 0\n )\n .sort((a: FlowPoint, b: FlowPoint) => a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime());\n}\n\nfunction parseSnotel(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): Snotel {\n const output: Snotel = {};\n for (const station of payload || []) {\n const stationId = String(station.stationTriplet);\n output[stationId] ||= {};\n for (const series of station.data || []) {\n const code = series.stationElement?.elementCode;\n if (!code) continue;\n output[stationId][code] = (series.values || []).map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(`${item.date}T12:00:00Z`),\n value: Number(item.value),\n median: item.median === null || item.median === undefined\n ? null\n : Number(item.median),\n })).filter((item: any) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n }\n }\n return output;\n}\n\nfunction latestAtOrBefore(\n points: T[],\n date: Date,\n): T | null {\n const eligible = (points || []).filter((point) => point.date <= date);\n return eligible.length ? eligible[eligible.length - 1] : null;\n}\n\nfunction stationAverage(\n snotel: Snotel,\n element: string,\n date: Date,\n field: \"value\" | \"median\" = \"value\",\n): number | null {\n return average(\n Object.values(snotel).map((station) =>\n (latestAtOrBefore(station[element] || [], date) as any)?.[field]\n ),\n );\n}\n\nfunction waterYearDay(date: Date): number {\n const year = date.getUTCMonth() >= 9\n ? date.getUTCFullYear()\n : date.getUTCFullYear() - 1;\n return Math.round(\n (Date.UTC(date.getUTCFullYear(), date.getUTCMonth(), date.getUTCDate()) -\n Date.UTC(year, 9, 1)) / 86_400_000,\n );\n}\n\nfunction buildFeatures(\n flowDaily: FlowPoint[],\n currentFlow: number,\n snotel: Snotel,\n now: Date,\n): Record {\n const date7 = addDays(now, -7);\n const date30 = addDays(now, -30);\n const recent7 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const recent30 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date30 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const flow7Ago = latestAtOrBefore(flowDaily, date7)?.value ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean7 = average(recent7) ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean30 = average(recent30) ?? flowMean7;\n const swe = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now) ?? 0;\n const sweMedian = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now, \"median\") ?? 0;\n const swe7Ago = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date7) ?? swe;\n const sweRatio = sweMedian > 0.05\n ? Math.min(3, Math.max(0, swe / sweMedian))\n : swe <= 0.05\n ? 0\n : 3;\n const stationIds = Object.keys(snotel);\n const temperatures: number[] = [];\n for (const id of stationIds) {\n for (const point of snotel[id].TAVG || []) {\n if (point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now) {\n temperatures.push(point.value);\n }\n }\n }\n const temp7 = average(temperatures) ?? 32;\n const precipitationChange = (startDate: Date) =>\n average(stationIds.map((id) => {\n const current = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], now)?.value;\n const earlier = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], startDate)?.value;\n return Number.isFinite(current) && Number.isFinite(earlier)\n ? Math.max(0, Number(current) - Number(earlier))\n : null;\n })) ?? 0;\n const precip7 = precipitationChange(date7);\n const precip30 = precipitationChange(date30);\n const snowPresent = swe > 0.05 ? 1 : 0;\n const angle = 2 * Math.PI * waterYearDay(now) / 365.25;\n return {\n log_flow: Math.log1p(currentFlow),\n log_flow_mean_7d: Math.log1p(flowMean7),\n log_flow_mean_30d: Math.log1p(flowMean30),\n relative_flow_change_7d: (currentFlow - flow7Ago) /\n (Math.abs(flowMean7) + 30),\n swe_in: swe,\n swe_ratio: sweRatio,\n swe_change_7d: swe - swe7Ago,\n temperature_scaled: (temp7 - 32) / 20,\n prec_total_7d: precip7,\n prec_total_30d: precip30,\n snow_present: snowPresent,\n season_sin: Math.sin(angle),\n season_cos: Math.cos(angle),\n season_sin_2: Math.sin(2 * angle),\n season_cos_2: Math.cos(2 * angle),\n melt_pressure: swe * Math.max(temp7 - 32, 0) / 100,\n rain_without_snow: precip7 * (1 - snowPresent),\n current_flow: currentFlow,\n swe_median: sweMedian,\n temp_7d: temp7,\n precip_7d: precip7,\n };\n}\n\nasync function fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n runoffYear: number,\n cutoffAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n const start = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1));\n const end = new Date(\n Math.min(cutoffAt.getTime(), Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59)),\n );\n const candidate = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= end\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n if (!candidate) return null;\n const url =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, -1))\n }&endDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, 2))\n }¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const values = parseUsgs(await fetchJson(url), cutoffAt);\n return values.reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n}\n\nfunction findTubingOpening(\n series: FlowPoint[],\n after: Date | null,\n): Date | null {\n if (!after) return null;\n const ordered = series.filter((item) => item.date > after).sort((a, b) =>\n a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime()\n );\n for (let index = 0; index < ordered.length; index += 1) {\n const endPoint = ordered[index];\n const startTime = endPoint.date.getTime() - 24 * 3_600_000;\n const window = ordered.filter((item) =>\n item.date.getTime() >= startTime && item.date <= endPoint.date\n );\n if (window.length < 4) continue;\n if (\n window.at(-1)!.date.getTime() - window[0].date.getTime() < 23 * 3_600_000\n ) continue;\n if (window.every((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400)) {\n return endPoint.date;\n }\n }\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n instantaneous: FlowPoint[],\n snotel: Snotel,\n current: FlowPoint,\n peakInstant: FlowPoint | null,\n): Milestones {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(current.date);\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const springStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 2, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowEnd = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59));\n const recreationStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 4, 1, 12));\n const laborDay = firstMondayOfSeptember(runoffYear);\n laborDay.setUTCHours(23, 59, 59, 999);\n const waterYearDaily = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= waterYearStart && item.date <= current.date\n );\n const springDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) => item.date >= springStart);\n const first400 = springDaily.find((item) => item.value >= 400) || null;\n const peakDaily = springDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= peakWindowStart && item.date <= peakWindowEnd\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeak = peakDaily\n ? Math.floor(\n (current.date.getTime() - peakDaily.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000,\n )\n : 0;\n const dropFromPeak = peakDaily?.value\n ? 1 - current.value / peakDaily.value\n : 0;\n const peakFlowLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakDaily && daysSincePeak >= 6 && dropFromPeak >= 0.18,\n );\n let tubingForecastTrigger: FlowPoint | null = null;\n if (peakDaily) {\n const peakIndex = springDaily.findIndex((item) =>\n isoDay(item.date) === isoDay(peakDaily.date) &&\n item.value === peakDaily.value\n );\n for (\n let index = Math.max(2, peakIndex + 1);\n index < springDaily.length;\n index += 1\n ) {\n const item = springDaily[index];\n const fallingThreeDay = item.value < springDaily[index - 2].value;\n const eligible = peakDaily.value >= 800\n ? item.value < 800\n : peakFlowLikelyPassed;\n if (eligible && fallingThreeDay) {\n tubingForecastTrigger = item;\n break;\n }\n }\n }\n const dailyTubingFallback = peakDaily\n ? springDaily.find((item) =>\n item.date > peakDaily.date && item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n )?.date || null\n : null;\n const tubingOpening =\n findTubingOpening(instantaneous, peakDaily?.date || null) ||\n dailyTubingFallback;\n const seasonDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart && item.date <= laborDay &&\n item.date <= current.date\n );\n const counts = {\n p300: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 300).length,\n p600: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 600).length,\n p800: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 800).length,\n tubing:\n seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400).length,\n };\n const strengthDays = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart &&\n item.date <= new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 5, 30, 23, 59))\n );\n const strength = average(strengthDays.map((item) => item.value));\n const snowDates = [\n ...new Set(\n Object.values(snotel).flatMap((station) =>\n (station.WTEQ || []).map((item) => isoDay(item.date))\n ),\n ),\n ]\n .map((value) => new Date(`${value}T12:00:00Z`)).filter((date) =>\n date >= waterYearStart && date <= current.date\n ).sort((a, b) => a.getTime() - b.getTime());\n const snowSeries = snowDates.map((date) => ({\n date,\n value: stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date),\n }))\n .filter((item): item is { date: Date; value: number } =>\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n let persistentSnow = null;\n for (let index = 0; index <= snowSeries.length - 7; index += 1) {\n const window = snowSeries.slice(index, index + 7);\n if (window[0].value >= 1 && window.every((item) => item.value >= 0.5)) {\n persistentSnow = window[0];\n break;\n }\n }\n const peakSwe = snowSeries.reduce<{ date: Date; value: number } | null>(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeakSwe = peakSwe\n ? Math.floor((current.date.getTime() - peakSwe.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000)\n : 0;\n const currentSwe = snowSeries.at(-1)?.value || 0;\n const peakSweLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakSwe && peakSwe.value >= 1 && daysSincePeakSwe >= 14 &&\n currentSwe <= peakSwe.value * 0.7,\n );\n return {\n runoffYear,\n laborDay,\n first400,\n peakDaily,\n peakInstant,\n peakFlowLikelyPassed,\n tubingForecastTrigger,\n tubingOpening,\n counts,\n strength,\n persistentSnow,\n peakSwe,\n peakSweLikelyPassed,\n };\n}\n\nexport async function fetchBasinSnapshot(\n cutoffAt = new Date(),\n): Promise {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(cutoffAt);\n // Models use 7- and 30-day history. Starting 45 days before the water year\n // also prevents the October 1 lock from running with an empty daily series.\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const start = isoDay(addDays(waterYearStart, -45));\n const end = isoDay(cutoffAt);\n const dailyUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${start}&endDT=${end}¶meterCd=00060&statCd=00003&siteStatus=all`;\n const instantUrl =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&period=P60D¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const stationParam = encodeURIComponent(CONFIG.snotelStations.join(\",\"));\n const snotelUrl =\n `https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdbRestApi/services/v1/data?stationTriplets=${stationParam}&elements=WTEQ%2CSNWD%2CPREC%2CTAVG&duration=DAILY&beginDate=${start}&endDate=${end}&periodRef=END¢ralTendencyType=MEDIAN&returnFlags=false&returnOriginalValues=false&returnSuspectData=false`;\n const [dailyPayload, instantPayload, snowPayload] = await Promise.all([\n fetchJson(dailyUrl),\n fetchJson(instantUrl),\n fetchJson(snotelUrl),\n ]);\n const dailyFlow = parseUsgs(dailyPayload, cutoffAt);\n const instantaneous = parseUsgs(instantPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!dailyFlow.length || !instantaneous.length) {\n throw new Error(\"The Pagosa USGS gauge did not return enough data\");\n }\n const snotel = parseSnotel(snowPayload, cutoffAt);\n if (!Object.keys(snotel).length) {\n throw new Error(\"The headwater SNOTEL stations did not return enough data\");\n }\n const latestSnotelAt = Object.values(snotel)\n .flatMap((station) => Object.values(station).flat())\n .reduce(\n (latest, point) => !latest || point.date > latest ? point.date : latest,\n null,\n );\n const current = instantaneous.at(-1)!;\n const features = buildFeatures(\n dailyFlow,\n current.value,\n snotel,\n current.date,\n );\n const peakInstant = await fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow,\n runoffYear,\n cutoffAt,\n ).catch(() => null);\n const milestones = deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow,\n instantaneous,\n snotel,\n current,\n peakInstant,\n );\n return {\n capturedAt: new Date(),\n cutoffAt,\n current,\n instantaneous,\n dailyFlow,\n snotel,\n features,\n milestones,\n sourceStatus: {\n usgs_site: CONFIG.usgsSite,\n usgs_latest_at: current.date.toISOString(),\n usgs_daily_points: dailyFlow.length,\n usgs_instant_points: instantaneous.length,\n snotel_stations: Object.keys(snotel),\n snotel_latest_day: latestSnotelAt ? isoDay(latestSnotelAt) : null,\n },\n };\n}\n// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const row: any = result.rows[0];\n return row\n ? {\n value: JSON.parse(String(row.value_json)),\n updatedAt: String(row.updated_at),\n }\n : null;\n}",[354],"a45f853e-943d-4ac8-8017-a88e6fc127f0",["D",1788883409099],[28],"ee4ea38a-9e2e-4707-817b-2ccaff9d54da","backup2-models.ts","5fc26ee2-ab9d-11f1-80fd-1607ee4eb77e",134,["D",1788883382687],[364],"4d0844da-a5bc-429e-a784-2f1725ac4464","backup2-models-core.ts","3bf39924-ab9c-11f1-b3b0-1607ee4eb77e",115,["D",1788883247628],[370],"b64462a9-a442-4459-9a1b-c66d23f4ac79","backup2-model-runtime.ts","d95c128a-ab9d-11f1-8034-1607ee4eb77e",138,["D",1788883387014],[376],"c839658b-2bca-4fe3-9959-e415f87bcb26","backup2-first400-trees-5.ts","480a27d2-ab9c-11f1-9a57-1607ee4eb77e",130,["D",1788883360490],[382],"d676301b-894a-4278-8cc2-bb175388d3d7","backup2-first400-trees-4.ts","443c880c-ab9c-11f1-abb3-1607ee4eb77e",127,["D",1788883355407],[388],"3149fb43-1d8f-4c28-947c-3c7e06abd904","backup2-first400-trees-3.ts","420ad214-ab9c-11f1-8ed7-1607ee4eb77e",124,["D",1788883350516],[394],"5f1e6947-e892-4a06-90bb-8daf8eebd11d","backup2-first400-trees-2.ts","3df70fa8-ab9c-11f1-a43c-1607ee4eb77e",121,["D",1788883345085],[400],"9a592c74-251d-4daa-9e02-d2172b1ec7ea","backup2-first400-trees-1.ts","41098f18-ab9c-11f1-99ad-1607ee4eb77e",118,["D",1788883252181],[406],"55592c97-1ccf-4492-9800-9a939536a0ee","backup2-engine.ts","f166b394-ab9d-11f1-a7c3-1607ee4eb77e",99,["D",1788883188786],[412],"48b03710-a87b-43f1-ae8e-1b02eba0288f","backup2-dates.ts","ca47fa66-ab9d-11f1-9edb-1607ee4eb77e",111,["D",1788883225618],[418],"804a629b-f45e-40ff-8de0-032427a2d5ce","backup2-config.ts","377dfa62-ab9a-11f1-ac1e-1607ee4eb77e",103,["D",1788883216481],[424],"pulls","branches","forks","envVars",{"_436":63,"_438":63},"connections",{"_436":63,"_437":63},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_43":423,"_32":424,"_30":425,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":426,"_175":59,"_38":593,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":338,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":594,"_27":595},{"_43":417,"_32":418,"_30":419,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":420,"_175":59,"_38":590,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":591,"_27":592},{"_43":411,"_32":412,"_30":413,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":414,"_175":59,"_38":587,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":588,"_27":589},{"_43":405,"_32":406,"_30":407,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":408,"_175":59,"_38":584,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":585,"_27":586},{"_43":399,"_32":400,"_30":401,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":402,"_175":59,"_38":581,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":582,"_27":583},{"_43":393,"_32":394,"_30":395,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":396,"_175":59,"_38":578,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":579,"_27":580},{"_43":387,"_32":388,"_30":389,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":390,"_175":59,"_38":575,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":576,"_27":577},{"_43":381,"_32":382,"_30":383,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":384,"_175":59,"_38":572,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":573,"_27":574},{"_43":375,"_32":376,"_30":377,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":378,"_175":59,"_38":569,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":186,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":570,"_27":571},{"_43":369,"_32":370,"_30":371,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":372,"_175":59,"_38":566,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":567,"_27":568},{"_43":363,"_32":364,"_30":365,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":366,"_175":59,"_38":563,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":564,"_27":565},{"_43":360,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_175":59,"_38":560,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":561,"_27":562},{"_43":353,"_32":354,"_30":355,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":356,"_175":59,"_38":557,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":358,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":558,"_27":559},{"_43":346,"_32":347,"_30":348,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":349,"_175":59,"_38":554,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":351,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":555,"_27":556},{"_43":340,"_32":341,"_30":342,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":343,"_175":59,"_38":551,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":178,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":552,"_27":553},{"_43":333,"_32":334,"_30":335,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":336,"_175":59,"_38":548,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":338,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":549,"_27":550},{"_43":324,"_32":325,"_30":326,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":327,"_175":25,"_38":545,"_13":329,"_34":330,"_36":331,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":546,"_27":547},{"_43":318,"_32":319,"_30":320,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":321,"_175":59,"_38":542,"_13":257,"_34":35,"_36":316,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":543,"_27":544},{"_43":311,"_32":312,"_30":313,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":314,"_175":59,"_38":539,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":316,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":540,"_27":541},{"_43":305,"_32":306,"_30":307,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":308,"_175":59,"_38":536,"_13":215,"_34":35,"_36":303,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":537,"_27":538},{"_43":298,"_32":299,"_30":300,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":301,"_175":25,"_38":533,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":303,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":534,"_27":535},{"_43":292,"_32":293,"_30":294,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":295,"_175":59,"_38":530,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":531,"_27":532},{"_43":286,"_32":287,"_30":288,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":289,"_175":59,"_38":527,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":528,"_27":529},{"_43":280,"_32":281,"_30":282,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":283,"_175":59,"_38":524,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":525,"_27":526},{"_43":274,"_32":275,"_30":276,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":277,"_175":59,"_38":521,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":522,"_27":523},{"_43":267,"_32":268,"_30":269,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":270,"_175":25,"_38":518,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":272,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":519,"_27":520},{"_43":261,"_32":262,"_30":263,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":177,"_175":59,"_38":515,"_13":63,"_34":258,"_36":265,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":516,"_27":517},{"_43":253,"_32":254,"_30":57,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":255,"_175":25,"_38":512,"_13":257,"_34":258,"_36":259,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":513,"_27":514},{"_43":246,"_32":247,"_30":248,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":249,"_175":59,"_38":509,"_13":251,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":510,"_27":511},{"_43":239,"_32":240,"_30":241,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":242,"_175":25,"_38":506,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":244,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":507,"_27":508},{"_43":232,"_32":233,"_30":234,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":235,"_175":25,"_38":503,"_13":237,"_34":35,"_36":110,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":504,"_27":505},{"_43":225,"_32":226,"_30":227,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":228,"_175":59,"_38":500,"_13":215,"_34":35,"_36":230,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":501,"_27":502},{"_43":218,"_32":219,"_30":220,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":221,"_175":25,"_38":497,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":223,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":498,"_27":499},{"_43":210,"_32":211,"_30":212,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":213,"_175":59,"_38":494,"_13":215,"_34":35,"_36":216,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":495,"_27":496},{"_43":203,"_32":204,"_30":205,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":206,"_175":59,"_38":491,"_13":208,"_34":35,"_36":201,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":492,"_27":493},{"_43":196,"_32":197,"_30":198,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":199,"_175":59,"_38":488,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":201,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":489,"_27":490},{"_43":188,"_32":189,"_30":190,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":191,"_175":59,"_38":485,"_13":193,"_34":35,"_36":194,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":486,"_27":487},{"_43":181,"_32":182,"_30":183,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":184,"_175":59,"_38":482,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":186,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":483,"_27":484},{"_43":170,"_32":171,"_30":172,"_173":-5,"_41":42,"_40":174,"_175":59,"_38":478,"_13":177,"_34":35,"_36":178,"_24":25,"_179":-5,"_479":480,"_27":481},["D",1788883223981],"children",[],[171],["D",1788883402631],[],[182],["D",1788882997593],[],[189],["D",1788883407435],[],[197],["D",1788883009046],[],[204],["D",1788883014695],[],[211],["D",1788883385392],[],[219],["D",1788882784046],[],[226],["D",1788883249820],[],[233],["D",1788883390021],[],[240],["D",1788882986481],[],[247],["D",1788882631456],[],[254],["D",1788719065897],[],[262],["D",1788883364194],[],[268],["D",1788883357811],[],[275],["D",1788883352897],[],[281],["D",1788883348337],[],[287],["D",1788883302327],[],[293],["D",1788883191905],[],[299],["D",1788883026203],[],[306],["D",1788883228591],[],[312],["D",1788882955145],[],[319],["D",1788883042782],[],[325],["D",1788883219504],[],[334],["D",1788883221085],[],[341],["D",1788883399233],[],[347],["D",1788883404303],[],[354],["D",1788883409099],[],[28],["D",1788883382687],[],[364],["D",1788883247628],[],[370],["D",1788883387014],[],[376],["D",1788883360490],[],[382],["D",1788883355407],[],[388],["D",1788883350516],[],[394],["D",1788883345085],[],[400],["D",1788883252181],[],[406],["D",1788883188786],[],[412],["D",1788883225618],[],[418],["D",1788883216481],[],[424],["D",1788718960405],["D",1789575110896],{"_100":99,"_108":104},{"_100":99,"_101":102,"_103":104,"_18":55,"_105":106,"_107":25},{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":45,"_98":99},"ctx",{"_82":-5,"_128":634,"_635":636,"_637":638,"_639":25,"_640":25,"_641":25,"_642":59,"_643":-5,"_644":-7,"_645":-7,"_646":63,"_647":25,"_648":25,"_649":-5,"_650":25,"_651":25,"_652":25,"_653":-5},"ENV",{"_605":606,"_607":608,"_609":90,"_610":611,"_612":613,"_614":615,"_616":617,"_618":619,"_620":621,"_622":623,"_624":625,"_626":627,"_628":629,"_630":631,"_632":633},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","5015b8df46402d8bba4f485ecc37aec202b0e06b","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Diff · v150