🖤 Black Hat Hydrology Lab

San Juan River forecast experiment · Current season ${current} ·\nraw JSON

`;\n\n // Film room first: all completed seasons, most recent first.\n const completed = [...bySeason.keys()].filter((s) => s !== current).sort().reverse();\n for (const season of completed) {\n body +=\n `

Film room — ${season}

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(season)!, season)}

`;\n }\n // Current / active season last.\n body +=\n `

Current season — ${current}

${seasonTable(bySeason.get(current) ?? [], current)}

`;\n\n return new Response(layout(body), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n}\n\nfunction seasonTable(recs: Array>, season: string): string {\n if (!recs.length) return `

No predictions locked yet for ${season}.

`;\n const rows = recs\n .map((r) => {\n const f = r.forecast as { headline: string; model_version: string };\n const s = r.score == null\n ? \"—\"\n : `= 0 ? \"win\" : \"loss\"}\">${r.score}`;\n return `${r.issue_date}${f.headline}${f.model_version}${s}`;\n })\n .join(\"\");\n return `${rows}

Issue	Forecast	Model	Score

`;\n}\n\nfunction authorized(req: Request): boolean {\n const secret = Deno.env.get(\"BH_LAB_SECRET\");\n if (!secret) return true; // no secret set → allow while building\n return req.headers.get(\"x-lab-secret\") === secret;\n}\n\nfunction jsonResponse(data: unknown, status = 200): Response {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(data, null, 2), {\n status,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" },\n });\n}\n",[263],"7c5870a0-512d-40ca-8907-be6d5339caf7","first400-trees-5.ts","b88b8cec-ab9e-11f1-bc0e-1607ee4eb77e",133,["D",1788883364194],"export const FIRST400_TREES_5 = [{\n \"feature\": [\n 14,\n 0,\n 1,\n 4,\n 2,\n 14,\n 9,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n 8,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 6,\n 4,\n 2,\n 4,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 0,\n 9,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 1,\n 13,\n -2,\n 6,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 7,\n 7,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 1,\n 2,\n 14,\n 8,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 0.87653768,\n 4.7921112,\n 4.47136484,\n 29.61801654,\n 4.223203,\n 0.57383543,\n 5.50258583,\n 0.50977228,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3.96963597,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.76439375,\n 0.99306143,\n 0.44283203,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.92495302,\n 0.74932933,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.07671249,\n 0.12518032,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.93490488,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.90856806,\n -0.55129933,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.1377155,\n 1.82529989,\n 30.33469698,\n 4.75285668,\n 26.12560913,\n 4.26493311,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.57489474,\n -2,\n -2,\n 34.72836655,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.62829844,\n -2,\n -0.18041943,\n -2,\n 5.2231028,\n -2,\n 5.73374065,\n 3.49311037,\n -2,\n 5.32793707,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.0732917,\n 5.09879957,\n -0.07308395,\n -2,\n 0.20847607,\n 4.75141927,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.69025697,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.91145953,\n -0.0895072,\n -0.42800683,\n -2,\n -0.09346358,\n -2,\n 5.48172494,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.40868963,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 41.46949465,\n 5.25805397,\n 4.63920488,\n 0.92861266,\n 1.03453858,\n -2,\n 4.52892494,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.21529649,\n -0.05518611,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.74634324,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.43917273,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.80985199,\n 5.44109142,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.28136886,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n 6,\n 7,\n 8,\n -1,\n -1,\n 11,\n -1,\n -1,\n 14,\n 15,\n 16,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 20,\n 21,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 26,\n 27,\n -1,\n -1,\n 30,\n -1,\n -1,\n 33,\n 34,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 38,\n 39,\n 40,\n 41,\n 42,\n 43,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 48,\n -1,\n -1,\n 51,\n -1,\n -1,\n 54,\n -1,\n 56,\n -1,\n 58,\n -1,\n 60,\n 61,\n -1,\n 63,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 67,\n 68,\n 69,\n -1,\n 71,\n 72,\n -1,\n -1,\n 75,\n -1,\n -1,\n 78,\n 79,\n 80,\n -1,\n 82,\n -1,\n 84,\n -1,\n -1,\n 87,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 91,\n 92,\n 93,\n 94,\n 95,\n -1,\n 97,\n -1,\n -1,\n 100,\n 101,\n -1,\n -1,\n 104,\n -1,\n -1,\n 107,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 115,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 66,\n 37,\n 32,\n 25,\n 24,\n 13,\n 10,\n 9,\n -1,\n -1,\n 12,\n -1,\n -1,\n 19,\n 18,\n 17,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 23,\n 22,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 29,\n 28,\n -1,\n -1,\n 31,\n -1,\n -1,\n 36,\n 35,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 53,\n 50,\n 47,\n 46,\n 45,\n 44,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 49,\n -1,\n -1,\n 52,\n -1,\n -1,\n 55,\n -1,\n 57,\n -1,\n 59,\n -1,\n 65,\n 62,\n -1,\n 64,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 90,\n 77,\n 70,\n -1,\n 74,\n 73,\n -1,\n -1,\n 76,\n -1,\n -1,\n 89,\n 86,\n 81,\n -1,\n 83,\n -1,\n 85,\n -1,\n -1,\n 88,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 114,\n 109,\n 106,\n 99,\n 96,\n -1,\n 98,\n -1,\n -1,\n 103,\n 102,\n -1,\n -1,\n 105,\n -1,\n -1,\n 108,\n -1,\n -1,\n 113,\n 112,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 116,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 22.17647059,\n 27.96,\n 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11.81818182,\n 11,\n 12.8,\n 0.1,\n 14.01149425,\n 15.10810811,\n 17.85714286,\n 19.09302326,\n 20.89473684,\n 22.5,\n 20.15384615,\n 19,\n 20.875,\n 17.66666667,\n 20.5,\n 21.83333333,\n 19.16666667,\n 14.83333333,\n 14.6,\n 15,\n 13.76923077,\n 10.8,\n 15.625,\n 6.55555556,\n 10.8,\n 12.8,\n 8.8,\n 1.25,\n 7.76923077,\n 11,\n 2.6,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 2,\n 12,\n 9,\n 3,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 1,\n 9,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 6,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n 7,\n -2,\n 12,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n 11,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6,\n 3,\n 7,\n -2,\n -2,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 1,\n 12,\n 4,\n 11,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 9,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 6,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n 15,\n 4,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 4.96953351,\n 4.67424476,\n 4.18658069,\n -0.90987793,\n 7.21978858,\n 0.21117504,\n 4.66245662,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.29275145,\n -0.56567302,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.7880715,\n 4.0390711,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2.54948265,\n 4.08319376,\n 4.8561877,\n -2,\n 0.49307963,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.165021,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.1542491,\n 0.74756455,\n -0.17549853,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7.0611442,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.27497317,\n 4.48732228,\n -2,\n 4.62344905,\n -2,\n 4.56716697,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.658682,\n -0.91652657,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.53067453,\n -0.53771837,\n -2,\n -0.9073169,\n -0.63455214,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 6.82821708,\n 0.23157051,\n 23.5439384,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.01410498,\n 0.03531685,\n -0.40455731,\n -2,\n -2,\n -0.98283671,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1.81403702,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.4026086,\n 5.39091675,\n -0.98236879,\n 28.15765089,\n 0.02781586,\n 0.20276649,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4.72306373,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11.33162872,\n 5.31025234,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.84070838,\n 0.49990008,\n -0.95897831,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.65614304,\n 0.17563638,\n 29.11369816,\n 0.22784427,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.48334911,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 5.54908902,\n 0.92045728,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.46111999,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"left\": [\n 1,\n 2,\n 3,\n 4,\n 5,\n 6,\n 7,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 11,\n 12,\n -1,\n -1,\n 15,\n 16,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 20,\n 21,\n 22,\n -1,\n 24,\n -1,\n -1,\n 27,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 31,\n 32,\n 33,\n -1,\n -1,\n 36,\n -1,\n -1,\n 39,\n 40,\n -1,\n 42,\n -1,\n 44,\n -1,\n -1,\n 47,\n 48,\n -1,\n -1,\n 51,\n 52,\n -1,\n 54,\n 55,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 59,\n 60,\n 61,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 66,\n 67,\n 68,\n -1,\n -1,\n 71,\n -1,\n -1,\n 74,\n -1,\n -1,\n 77,\n 78,\n 79,\n 80,\n 81,\n 82,\n -1,\n -1,\n 85,\n -1,\n -1,\n 88,\n 89,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 93,\n 94,\n 95,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 100,\n 101,\n 102,\n 103,\n -1,\n -1,\n 106,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 110,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 115,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"right\": [\n 76,\n 65,\n 30,\n 19,\n 10,\n 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7.88888889,\n 7.25,\n 7.81818182,\n 6.8,\n 8.66666667,\n 6,\n 16.13333333,\n 15.25,\n 17.14285714,\n ],\n}, {\n \"feature\": [\n 14,\n 0,\n 0,\n 2,\n 2,\n 8,\n 9,\n 8,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 12,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n 2,\n 4,\n 0,\n 14,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 14,\n -2,\n 1,\n -2,\n 1,\n 12,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 2,\n 12,\n -2,\n 6,\n -2,\n 4,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n 1,\n 11,\n 1,\n -2,\n -2,\n 11,\n 4,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 4,\n 3,\n 6,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 3,\n -2,\n -2,\n 8,\n -2,\n -2,\n 4,\n 0,\n 0,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n 7,\n 13,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 1,\n 0,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n ],\n \"threshold\": [\n 0.88154302,\n 5.46013666,\n 4.70181194,\n 4.47193637,\n 4.05162457,\n 1.95980484,\n 6.87541642,\n 1.10910153,\n 0.43376812,\n -2,\n -2,\n -2,\n 23.07570729,\n -2,\n -2,\n 0.46558415,\n 33.01144661,\n 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92,\n 91,\n 88,\n -1,\n 90,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 94,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 104,\n 103,\n 100,\n -1,\n 102,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n 112,\n 109,\n 108,\n -1,\n -1,\n 111,\n -1,\n -1,\n -1,\n ],\n \"value\": [\n 17.20971867,\n 26.85925926,\n 28.91964286,\n 39.4375,\n 40.72727273,\n 47.8,\n 34.83333333,\n 36.6,\n 27.16666667,\n 20.05882353,\n 21.5,\n 18.77777778,\n 28.69620253,\n 30.06153846,\n 37.85714286,\n 29.12068966,\n 30.60784314,\n 28.90625,\n 27.70588235,\n 28.9,\n 26,\n 30.26666667,\n 34.8,\n 28,\n 26.8,\n 29.2,\n 33.47368421,\n 32.14285714,\n 35.14285714,\n 29.14285714,\n 37.2,\n 18.28571429,\n 22.35714286,\n 25.4,\n 20.66666667,\n 16.82608696,\n 11.83333333,\n 18.58823529,\n 21.5,\n 16,\n 12.12109375,\n 15.78095238,\n 17.8875,\n 21.38461538,\n 23.22580645,\n 18.6,\n 24.11538462,\n 29.4,\n 22.85714286,\n 27.07142857,\n 24.375,\n 30.66666667,\n 14.42857143,\n 18.66666667,\n 15.15384615,\n 17,\n 13,\n 24.375,\n 11.39285714,\n 9.36842105,\n 13.2,\n 8,\n 11.6,\n 6,\n 15.66666667,\n 9.04,\n 16.14285714,\n 6.27777778,\n 9,\n 7,\n 10.66666667,\n 2,\n 9.57615894,\n 13.23076923,\n 16.74193548,\n 20.33333333,\n 15.16666667,\n 23.77777778,\n 13.375,\n 15.16666667,\n 12.3,\n 14.4,\n 10.2,\n 10.91489362,\n 11.53658537,\n 10.53846154,\n 11.89473684,\n 16.57142857,\n 9.16666667,\n 8.66666667,\n 9.66666667,\n 6.85714286,\n 13.26666667,\n 11.2,\n 14.3,\n 6.66666667,\n 5.67123288,\n 7.25,\n 5.15,\n 5.71428571,\n 4.84615385,\n 3.375,\n 7.2,\n 12.5,\n 4.68888889,\n 6.59375,\n 8.77777778,\n 4.42857143,\n 11.54545455,\n 3.78571429,\n 8.4,\n 1.22222222,\n 0,\n ],\n}] as const;",[269],"195a0b3b-7e8a-4c1a-816f-3a3a36b2479c","first400-trees-4.ts","b597b498-ab9e-11f1-b55f-1607ee4eb77e",129,["D",1788883357811],[276],"9c421bfb-ec62-4bdc-b4ae-75e68a5a66fb","first400-trees-3.ts","b2a13f7a-ab9e-11f1-b382-1607ee4eb77e",126,["D",1788883352897],[282],"aaa5d3d9-75e9-4054-946c-6a9bb551e66c","first400-trees-2.ts","af64a842-ab9e-11f1-aea1-1607ee4eb77e",123,["D",1788883348337],[288],"aada16c2-aee7-40c8-903c-0832dce5584d","first400-trees-1.ts","78758680-ab9e-11f1-8cca-1607ee4eb77e",120,["D",1788883302327],[294],"87d6c8b2-0010-49e7-9ea1-8bc8300bb9c2","engine.ts","520ed0e6-ab9e-11f1-84ac-1607ee4eb77e",102,["D",1788883191905],"import { CONFIG, IS_LIVE } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport { addDays, fixedIssueAt, mountainToUtc, waterYear } from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport { MODEL_BUNDLE } from \"./models.ts\";\nimport { QUESTIONS } from \"./questions.ts\";\nimport { fetchBasinSnapshot } from \"./sources.ts\";\nimport {\n cachePublicFeed,\n ensureSeason,\n finalizePrediction,\n getPrediction,\n initDb,\n listPredictions,\n lockPrediction,\n recentRuns,\n recordEvent,\n recordRun,\n} from \"./storage.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, QuestionDefinition } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nfunction canonical(value: any): string {\n if (Array.isArray(value)) return `[${value.map(canonical).join(\",\")}]`;\n if (value && typeof value === \"object\") {\n return `{${\n Object.keys(value).sort().map((key) =>\n `${JSON.stringify(key)}:${canonical(value[key])}`\n ).join(\",\")\n }}`;\n }\n return JSON.stringify(value);\n}\n\nasync function sha256(value: string): Promise {\n const digest = await crypto.subtle.digest(\n \"SHA-256\",\n new TextEncoder().encode(value),\n );\n return [...new Uint8Array(digest)].map((byte) =>\n byte.toString(16).padStart(2, \"0\")\n ).join(\"\");\n}\n\nfunction inputRecord(snapshot: BasinSnapshot): Record {\n const m = snapshot.milestones;\n return {\n captured_at: snapshot.capturedAt.toISOString(),\n cutoff_at: snapshot.cutoffAt.toISOString(),\n current: {\n date: snapshot.current.date.toISOString(),\n value: snapshot.current.value,\n },\n features: snapshot.features,\n milestones: {\n runoff_year: m.runoffYear,\n first_400: m.first400 &&\n { date: m.first400.date.toISOString(), value: m.first400.value },\n peak_daily: m.peakDaily &&\n { date: m.peakDaily.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakDaily.value },\n peak_instant: m.peakInstant &&\n { date: m.peakInstant.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakInstant.value },\n tubing_trigger: m.tubingForecastTrigger &&\n {\n date: m.tubingForecastTrigger.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.tubingForecastTrigger.value,\n },\n tubing_opening: m.tubingOpening?.toISOString() || null,\n counts: m.counts,\n strength: m.strength,\n persistent_snow: m.persistentSnow &&\n {\n date: m.persistentSnow.date.toISOString(),\n value: m.persistentSnow.value,\n },\n peak_swe: m.peakSwe &&\n { date: m.peakSwe.date.toISOString(), value: m.peakSwe.value },\n },\n };\n}\n\nfunction dueAt(\n question: QuestionDefinition,\n runoffYear: number,\n snapshot: BasinSnapshot,\n): Date | null {\n if (question.issueKind === \"fixed\") {\n return fixedIssueAt(runoffYear, question.issueMonth!, question.issueDay!);\n }\n return question.trigger?.(snapshot) || null;\n}\n\nfunction publicPrediction(row: any): Record {\n return {\n number: Number(row.question_number),\n key: row.question_key,\n title: row.title,\n issue_kind: row.issue_kind,\n issue_due_at: row.issue_due_at,\n locked_at: row.locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at: row.input_cutoff_at,\n model_version: row.model_version,\n prediction: JSON.parse(row.prediction_json),\n status: row.status,\n actual: row.actual_json ? JSON.parse(row.actual_json) : null,\n score: row.score,\n scored_at: row.scored_at,\n };\n}\n\nasync function refreshPublicCache(runoffYear: number): Promise {\n const live = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"live\");\n const shadow = await listPredictions(runoffYear, \"shadow\");\n const runs = await recentRuns(5);\n const feed = {\n schema_version: 1,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n game_state: live.length ? \"live\" : \"shadow-testing\",\n model: MODEL_BUNDLE,\n updated_at: new Date().toISOString(),\n predictions: live.map(publicPrediction),\n shadow_summary: {\n locked: shadow.length,\n scored: shadow.filter((row) => row.score).length,\n },\n health: runs.map((run) => ({\n ran_at: run.ran_at,\n mode: run.mode,\n success: Boolean(run.success),\n message: run.message,\n })),\n };\n await cachePublicFeed(`scoreboard-${runoffYear}`, feed);\n await cachePublicFeed(\"scoreboard-current\", feed);\n}\n\nexport async function runAutomation(\n now = new Date(),\n): Promise> {\n await initDb();\n const mode = IS_LIVE ? \"live\" : \"shadow\";\n const runoffYear = waterYear(now);\n if (runoffYear < CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear) {\n // September is a preseason health check. It deliberately creates no locks,\n // but proves the official sources, models, database, cron and public cache work.\n try {\n const current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n const message =\n `Preseason ${mode} check passed. Water year ${CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear} becomes eligible on October 1.`;\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n preseason: true,\n water_year: CONFIG.firstAutomatedWaterYear,\n message,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, `Preseason check failed: ${message}`);\n throw error;\n }\n }\n const openedAt = mountainToUtc(runoffYear - 1, 10, 1, 0);\n await ensureSeason(runoffYear, MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version, openedAt);\n let current: BasinSnapshot;\n try {\n current = await fetchBasinSnapshot(now);\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n await recordRun(false, mode, message);\n throw error;\n }\n\n const actions: string[] = [];\n const lockSnapshots = new Map();\n for (const question of QUESTIONS) {\n let stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n if (!stored) {\n const issueAt = dueAt(question, runoffYear, current);\n if (issueAt && now >= issueAt) {\n const ageHours = (now.getTime() - issueAt.getTime()) / 3_600_000;\n if (ageHours > CONFIG.fixedLockGraceHours) {\n actions.push(\n `P${question.number} needs review: issue window was missed`,\n );\n } else {\n const cacheKey = issueAt.toISOString();\n let lockSnapshot = lockSnapshots.get(cacheKey);\n if (!lockSnapshot) {\n lockSnapshot = await fetchBasinSnapshot(issueAt);\n lockSnapshots.set(cacheKey, lockSnapshot);\n }\n const prediction = question.calculate(lockSnapshot);\n const inputs = inputRecord(lockSnapshot);\n const predictionJson = canonical(prediction);\n const inputsJson = canonical(inputs);\n const inserted = await lockPrediction({\n water_year: runoffYear,\n question_number: question.number,\n question_key: question.key,\n title: question.title,\n mode,\n issue_kind: question.issueKind,\n issue_due_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n locked_at: now.toISOString(),\n input_cutoff_at: issueAt.toISOString(),\n model_version: MODEL_BUNDLE.source_model_version,\n model_hash: MODEL_BUNDLE.sha256,\n prediction_json: predictionJson,\n inputs_json: inputsJson,\n inputs_hash: await sha256(inputsJson),\n source_status_json: canonical(lockSnapshot.sourceStatus),\n status: \"locked\",\n actual_json: null,\n score: null,\n scored_at: null,\n });\n if (inserted) {\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_lock_created`,\n now,\n { issue_at: issueAt.toISOString(), prediction },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} ${mode} lock created`);\n stored = await getPrediction(runoffYear, question.number, mode);\n }\n }\n }\n }\n if (stored && !stored.scored_at && question.final(current)) {\n const actual = question.actual(current);\n if (actual) {\n const prediction = JSON.parse(stored.prediction_json);\n const hit = question.score(prediction, actual);\n await finalizePrediction(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n mode,\n canonical(actual),\n hit,\n now,\n );\n await recordEvent(\n runoffYear,\n question.number,\n `${mode}_score_finalized`,\n now,\n { actual, score: hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\" },\n );\n actions.push(`P${question.number} scored ${hit ? \"HIT\" : \"MISS\"}`);\n }\n }\n }\n const message = actions.length\n ? actions.join(\"; \")\n : \"Data refreshed; no lock or score was due.\";\n await recordRun(true, mode, message, current.sourceStatus);\n await refreshPublicCache(runoffYear);\n return {\n ok: true,\n mode,\n water_year: runoffYear,\n actions,\n source_status: current.sourceStatus,\n };\n}",[300],"62109e24-6ec6-45e4-9c7f-6c3eaaf8e9fb","engine-old.ts","a6362ff6-ab9a-11f1-9797-1607ee4eb77e",94,["D",1788883026203],[307],"7a8908c5-6892-4e95-9214-8dda1b63db29","dates.ts","682186ee-ab9e-11f1-b382-1607ee4eb77e",114,["D",1788883228591],"import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\n\nconst DAY = 86_400_000;\n\nexport function addDays(date: Date, days: number): Date {\n return new Date(date.getTime() + days * DAY);\n}\n\nexport function isoDay(date: Date): string {\n return date.toISOString().slice(0, 10);\n}\n\nexport function mountainParts(\n date: Date,\n): { year: number; month: number; day: number; hour: number } {\n const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat(\"en-US\", {\n timeZone: CONFIG.timeZone,\n year: \"numeric\",\n month: \"numeric\",\n day: \"numeric\",\n hour: \"numeric\",\n hourCycle: \"h23\",\n }).formatToParts(date);\n const values = Object.fromEntries(\n parts.filter((part) => part.type !== \"literal\").map((\n part,\n ) => [part.type, Number(part.value)]),\n );\n return values as { year: number; month: number; day: number; hour: number };\n}\n\n// Converts a wall-clock time in America/Denver to UTC without requiring a date library.\nexport function mountainToUtc(\n year: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n hour = 0,\n minute = 0,\n): Date {\n let guess = new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, hour, minute));\n for (let attempt = 0; attempt < 3; attempt += 1) {\n const seen = mountainParts(guess);\n const wanted = Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, hour, minute);\n const actual = Date.UTC(\n seen.year,\n seen.month - 1,\n seen.day,\n seen.hour,\n minute,\n );\n guess = new Date(guess.getTime() + wanted - actual);\n }\n return guess;\n}\n\nexport function mountainCalendarDate(date: Date): Date {\n const p = mountainParts(date);\n return new Date(Date.UTC(p.year, p.month - 1, p.day, 12));\n}\n\nexport function waterYear(date: Date): number {\n const p = mountainParts(date);\n return p.month >= 10 ? p.year + 1 : p.year;\n}\n\nexport function fixedIssueAt(\n runoffYear: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n): Date {\n const year = month >= 10 ? runoffYear - 1 : runoffYear;\n return mountainToUtc(year, month, day, CONFIG.lockHourMountain);\n}\n\nexport function firstMondayOfSeptember(year: number): Date {\n const first = new Date(Date.UTC(year, 8, 1, 12));\n const offset = (8 - first.getUTCDay()) % 7;\n return addDays(first, offset);\n}\n\nexport function daysBetween(a: Date, b: Date): number {\n return Math.round(\n (mountainCalendarDate(a).getTime() - mountainCalendarDate(b).getTime()) /\n DAY,\n );\n}\n\nexport function afterMountainDay(\n date: Date,\n year: number,\n month: number,\n day: number,\n): boolean {\n return mountainCalendarDate(date) >\n new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, 23, 59, 59));\n}",[313],"5c5fb06d-0c56-490b-8d6c-f0b6e727cedf","dates-old.ts","8d25a690-ab9a-11f1-ade0-1607ee4eb77e",74,["D",1788882955145],[320],"25356f1b-d067-4cfa-813e-b15e7d267006","cron.ts","a7fd641c-ab9a-11f1-83fc-1607ee4eb77e",98,["D",1788883042782],9,"interval","import { runAutomation } from \"./engine.ts\";\n\nexport default async function (_interval: { lastRunAt?: Date }): Promise {\n const result = await runAutomation(new Date());\n console.log(JSON.stringify(result));\n}",[326],"2105a0ef-fb80-4e08-8cc6-64a92f17070e","config.ts","62a61c66-ab9e-11f1-997f-1607ee4eb77e",106,["D",1788883219504],"export const CONFIG = {\n username: \"pagosaoutside\",\n projectName: \"black-hat-hydrology\",\n timeZone: \"America/Denver\",\n lockHourMountain: 9,\n fixedLockGraceHours: 36,\n firstAutomatedWaterYear: 2027,\n // Leave this in shadow mode until the preseason checks have passed.\n mode: String(\n (globalThis as any).Deno?.env?.get?.(\"BLACK_HAT_MODE\") || \"shadow\",\n ).toLowerCase(),\n allowedOrigins: new Set([\n \"https://pagosaoutside.com\",\n \"https://www.pagosaoutside.com\",\n ]),\n usgsSite: \"09342500\",\n snotelStations: [\"840:CO:SNTL\", \"874:CO:SNTL\"],\n modelVersion: \"0.5.0-2027-game\",\n} as const;\n\nexport const IS_LIVE = CONFIG.mode === \"live\";",[335],"8bf1d3fe-d7d6-423b-9132-ebd97d5addd9","backup2-types.ts","9a8b01ea-ab9a-11f1-9797-1607ee4eb77e",107,["D",1788883221085],[342],"ee4ea38a-9e2e-4707-817b-2ccaff9d54da","backup2-models.ts","5fc26ee2-ab9d-11f1-80fd-1607ee4eb77e",134,["D",1788883382687],[348],"4d0844da-a5bc-429e-a784-2f1725ac4464","backup2-models-core.ts","3bf39924-ab9c-11f1-b3b0-1607ee4eb77e",115,["D",1788883247628],[354],"b64462a9-a442-4459-9a1b-c66d23f4ac79","backup2-model-runtime.ts","d95c128a-ab9d-11f1-8034-1607ee4eb77e",138,["D",1788883387014],"// Val-scoped SQLite keeps this project's records isolated and returns rows as\n// named objects (the legacy account-global database returns arrays).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nexport type StoredPrediction = {\n water_year: number;\n question_number: number;\n question_key: string;\n title: string;\n mode: string;\n issue_kind: string;\n issue_due_at: string;\n locked_at: string;\n input_cutoff_at: string;\n model_version: string;\n model_hash: string;\n prediction_json: string;\n inputs_json: string;\n inputs_hash: string;\n source_status_json: string;\n status: string;\n actual_json: string | null;\n score: string | null;\n scored_at: string | null;\n};\n\nexport async function initDb(): Promise {\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_seasons (\n water_year INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,\n opened_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n state TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'active',\n model_bundle_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n completed_at TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_predictions (\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_key TEXT NOT NULL,\n title TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(mode IN ('shadow','live')),\n issue_kind TEXT NOT NULL,\n issue_due_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n locked_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n input_cutoff_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_version TEXT NOT NULL,\n model_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n prediction_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n inputs_hash TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'locked',\n actual_json TEXT,\n score TEXT CHECK(score IN ('hit','miss') OR score IS NULL),\n scored_at TEXT,\n PRIMARY KEY (water_year, question_number, mode)\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_runs (\n id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n ran_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n mode TEXT NOT NULL,\n success INTEGER NOT NULL,\n message TEXT NOT NULL,\n source_status_json TEXT\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_events (\n id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,\n water_year INTEGER NOT NULL,\n question_number INTEGER,\n event_type TEXT NOT NULL,\n occurred_at TEXT NOT NULL,\n payload_json TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS bh_public_cache (\n cache_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n value_json TEXT NOT NULL,\n updated_at TEXT NOT NULL\n )`,\n `CREATE TRIGGER IF NOT EXISTS bh_locked_prediction_immutable\n BEFORE UPDATE OF issue_due_at, locked_at, input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash\n ON bh_predictions\n BEGIN SELECT RAISE(ABORT, 'Locked Black Hat prediction fields are immutable'); END`,\n ]);\n}\n\nexport async function ensureSeason(\n waterYear: number,\n modelVersion: string,\n openedAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_seasons(water_year, opened_at, model_bundle_version) VALUES (?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [waterYear, openedAt.toISOString(), modelVersion],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=?`,\n args: [waterYear, questionNumber, mode],\n });\n return (result.rows[0] as any) || null;\n}\n\nexport async function lockPrediction(row: StoredPrediction): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR IGNORE INTO bh_predictions(\n water_year, question_number, question_key, title, mode, issue_kind, issue_due_at, locked_at,\n input_cutoff_at, model_version, model_hash, prediction_json, inputs_json, inputs_hash,\n source_status_json, status, actual_json, score, scored_at\n ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n row.water_year,\n row.question_number,\n row.question_key,\n row.title,\n row.mode,\n row.issue_kind,\n row.issue_due_at,\n row.locked_at,\n row.input_cutoff_at,\n row.model_version,\n row.model_hash,\n row.prediction_json,\n row.inputs_json,\n row.inputs_hash,\n row.source_status_json,\n row.status,\n row.actual_json,\n row.score,\n row.scored_at,\n ],\n });\n return Number(result.rowsAffected) === 1;\n}\n\nexport async function finalizePrediction(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number,\n mode: string,\n actualJson: string,\n hit: boolean,\n scoredAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `UPDATE bh_predictions SET actual_json=?, score=?, status='scored', scored_at=?\n WHERE water_year=? AND question_number=? AND mode=? AND scored_at IS NULL`,\n args: [\n actualJson,\n hit ? \"hit\" : \"miss\",\n scoredAt.toISOString(),\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n mode,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordEvent(\n waterYear: number,\n questionNumber: number | null,\n eventType: string,\n occurredAt: Date,\n payload: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_events(water_year, question_number, event_type, occurred_at, payload_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n waterYear,\n questionNumber,\n eventType,\n occurredAt.toISOString(),\n JSON.stringify(payload),\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function recordRun(\n success: boolean,\n mode: string,\n message: string,\n sourceStatus: unknown = null,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_runs(id, ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`,\n args: [\n crypto.randomUUID(),\n new Date().toISOString(),\n mode,\n success ? 1 : 0,\n message,\n sourceStatus ? JSON.stringify(sourceStatus) : null,\n ],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function listPredictions(\n waterYear: number,\n mode: string,\n): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT * FROM bh_predictions WHERE water_year=? AND mode=? ORDER BY question_number`,\n args: [waterYear, mode],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function recentRuns(limit = 10): Promise {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `SELECT ran_at, mode, success, message, source_status_json FROM bh_runs ORDER BY ran_at DESC LIMIT ?`,\n args: [limit],\n });\n return result.rows as any;\n}\n\nexport async function cachePublicFeed(\n key: string,\n value: unknown,\n): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql:\n `INSERT INTO bh_public_cache(cache_key, value_json, updated_at) VALUES (?, ?, ?)\n ON CONFLICT(cache_key) DO UPDATE SET value_json=excluded.value_json, updated_at=excluded.updated_at`,\n args: [key, JSON.stringify(value), new Date().toISOString()],\n });\n}\n\nexport async function getPublicFeed(\n key: string,\n): Promise<{ value: any; updatedAt: string } | null> {\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT value_json, updated_at FROM bh_public_cache WHERE cache_key=?`,\n args: [key],\n });\n const 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Diff · v139