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TACTIC 3 — settlement. File type: interval.\n * Cron: 5 0 * * * (02:05 Warsaw in summer, 01:05 in winter)\n */\nimport { ENV, postSheet, readSheet, round, tg, warsawDate } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\nexport default async function (_interval: Interval) {\n const sheet = await readSheet();\n const cfg = sheet.config;\n\n // anything logged whose kickoff was more than 2.5h ago and is still unresolved\n const pending = sheet.open_bets.filter((b: any) => {\n if (!b.kickoff_utc) return false;\n const ageH = (Date.now() - new Date(String(b.kickoff_utc)).getTime()) /\n 3.6e6;\n return ageH > 2.5 && ageH < 96;\n });\n if (!pending.length) {\n console.log(\"nothing to settle\");\n return;\n }\n\n const leagues = [...new Set(pending.map((b: any) => String(b.league)))];\n const scores = new Map();\n\n for (const lg of leagues) {\n try {\n const r = await fetch(\n `https://api.the-odds-api.com/v4/sports/${lg}/scores/?daysFrom=3&apiKey=${ENV.oddsKey()}`,\n );\n if (!r.ok) continue;\n for (const e of await r.json()) {\n if (!e.completed || !e.scores) continue;\n const h = e.scores.find((s: any) => s.name === e.home_team);\n const a = e.scores.find((s: any) => s.name === e.away_team);\n if (!h || !a) continue;\n const hs = Number(h.score), as = Number(a.score);\n scores.set(e.id, {\n total: hs + as,\n winner: hs > as ? e.home_team : as > hs ? e.away_team : \"Draw\",\n });\n }\n } catch (e) {\n console.error(\"scores failed\", lg, String(e));\n }\n }\n\n const updates: any[] = [];\n const settledSel: any[] = [];\n let dayPnlU = 0;\n\n for (const b of pending) {\n const s = scores.get(String(b.id).split(\":\")[0]);\n if (!s) continue;\n\n const res = resolve(\n String(b.market),\n String(b.line),\n String(b.selection),\n s,\n );\n const isSelected = String(b.status) === \"SELECTED\";\n const units = Number(b.units) || 0;\n const odds = Number(b.betclic_odds);\n const pnlU = !isSelected\n ? 0\n : res === \"WON\"\n ? units * (odds - 1)\n : res === \"LOST\"\n ? -units\n : 0;\n const payout = !isSelected\n ? \"\"\n : res === \"WON\"\n ? round(\n units * odds * Number(cfg.notional_bank) * Number(cfg.unit_pct) / 100,\n 2,\n )\n : 0;\n\n if (isSelected) {\n dayPnlU += pnlU;\n settledSel.push({ b, res, pnlU });\n }\n\n updates.push({\n id: b.id,\n result: res,\n score: `${s.total} total${s.winner ? \" · \" + s.winner : \"\"}`,\n payout,\n pnl_units: isSelected ? round(pnlU, 3) : 0,\n });\n }\n\n if (!updates.length) {\n console.log(\"no results available yet\");\n return;\n }\n await postSheet(\"settle\", { updates });\n\n // rolling CLV + bank\n const withClv = [...sheet.open_bets, ...updates].filter((b: any) =>\n b.clv_pct !== \"\" && b.clv_pct != null\n );\n const clvAll = withClv.length\n ? round(\n withClv.reduce((a: number, b: any) => a + Number(b.clv_pct), 0) /\n withClv.length,\n 2,\n )\n : \"\";\n const bank = round(\n Number(sheet.state.bank) +\n dayPnlU * Number(cfg.notional_bank) * Number(cfg.unit_pct) / 100,\n 2,\n );\n\n await postSheet(\"set_state\", {\n values: {\n bank,\n clv_all: clvAll,\n bets_settled: Number(sheet.state.bets_settled || 0) + settledSel.length,\n last_settle: new Date().toISOString(),\n },\n });\n\n await tg(renderSettle(settledSel, updates.length, dayPnlU, bank, clvAll));\n}\n\nfunction resolve(\n market: string,\n line: string,\n selection: string,\n s: { total: number; winner: string | null },\n) {\n if (market === \"totals\") {\n const pt = Number(line);\n if (s.total === pt) return \"VOID\";\n const over = s.total > pt;\n return (selection === \"Over\") === over ? \"WON\" : \"LOST\";\n }\n if (market === \"h2h\") return selection === s.winner ? \"WON\" : \"LOST\";\n return \"VOID\";\n}\n\nfunction renderSettle(\n sel: any[],\n total: number,\n pnlU: number,\n bank: number,\n clv: any,\n) {\n const L: string[] = [];\n L.push(`📊 Settled · ${warsawDate(new Date(Date.now() - 6 * 3.6e6))}`);\n L.push(`${total} candidates resolved · ${sel.length} were selected`);\n L.push(\"\");\n if (!sel.length) L.push(\"No selected bets yesterday.\");\n for (const { b, res, pnlU: p } of sel) {\n const icon = res === \"WON\" ? \"✅\" : res === \"LOST\" ? \"❌\" : \"◽\";\n const clvTxt = b.clv_pct !== \"\" && b.clv_pct != null\n ? ` · CLV ${Number(b.clv_pct) > 0 ? \"+\" : \"\"}${b.clv_pct}%`\n : \"\";\n L.push(`${icon} ${b.match} — ${b.selection} ${b.line}`);\n L.push(\n ` ${b.units}u @ ${b.betclic_odds} → ${p >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\"}${\n round(p, 2)\n }u${clvTxt}`,\n );\n }\n L.push(\"\");\n L.push(\n `Day ${pnlU >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\"}${\n round(pnlU, 2)\n }u · bank ${bank} notional`,\n );\n L.push(`Rolling CLV (all logged): ${clv === \"\" ? \"n/a\" : clv + \"%\"}`);\n L.push(\"\");\n L.push(\n \"CLV is the number that matters. Profit at this sample size is noise.\",\n );\n return L.join(\"\\n\");\n}",3,["D",1788056210933],"branchVersion","label",[18],"pulls","branches",1,"forks","envVars",{"_187":189,"_190":26},"connections",{"_187":26,"_188":26},"count","unfilledCount",5,"emptyCount",{"_35":216,"_13":217,"_64":218,"_45":-5,"_37":38,"_176":219,"_195":196,"_39":220,"_41":221,"_67":96,"_172":222,"_69":24,"_177":-5,"_198":223,"_17":224},{"_35":208,"_13":209,"_64":210,"_45":-5,"_37":38,"_176":211,"_195":196,"_39":212,"_41":174,"_67":68,"_172":213,"_69":24,"_177":-5,"_198":214,"_17":215},{"_35":201,"_13":202,"_64":203,"_45":-5,"_37":38,"_176":135,"_195":196,"_39":204,"_41":42,"_67":96,"_172":205,"_69":24,"_177":-5,"_198":206,"_17":207},{"_35":171,"_13":18,"_64":65,"_45":-5,"_37":38,"_176":90,"_195":196,"_39":197,"_41":174,"_67":96,"_172":173,"_69":24,"_177":-5,"_198":199,"_17":200},"latest",true,["D",1788056210933],"children",[],[18],"15b77d2c-e646-45db-b965-7e85e01ec1b4","scan.ts","28ea0a66-a417-11f1-bcc3-1607ee4eb77e",["D",1788074229586],"/** TACTIC 3 — scan. Cron: 0 7 * * * (07:00 UTC = 09:00 Warsaw in summer)\n *\n * The Odds API carries no Polish bookmaker. So the screen is:\n * fair price = Pinnacle, de-vigged (Shin for 3-way, proportional for 2-way)\n * market price = MEDIAN of European soft books — which is what Betclic PL is\n * edge = market median vs Pinnacle fair\n * Every selection carries a MIN PRICE. Betclic PL is checked by hand before\n * anything is placed; below the min price, it isn't a bet.\n */\nimport {\n readSheet, postSheet, tg, fetchOdds, bookMarket, softPrices, median,\n devigMultiplicative, devigShin, edgePct, kellyUnits, baseThreshold,\n round, hoursUntil, warsawDate, warsawTime, SHARP, type Ev,\n} from \"./lib.ts\";\n\nconst MAJORS = new Set([\n \"soccer_epl\", \"soccer_spain_la_liga\", \"soccer_italy_serie_a\",\n \"soccer_germany_bundesliga\", \"soccer_france_ligue_one\",\n]);\n\ninterface Cand {\n id: string; league: string; match: string; kickoff: string; hours: number;\n market: string; line: string; selection: string;\n softMed: number; softBest: number; bestBook: string; bcf: number | null; nSoft: number;\n sharpRaw: number; fair: number; minPrice: number; overround: number;\n edge: number; thr: number; grade: \"A\" | \"B\"; units: number; veto: string;\n}\n\nexport default async function (_interval: any) {\n const sheet = await readSheet();\n const cfg = sheet.config;\n const today = warsawDate();\n\n if (cfg.kill_switch === true || cfg.kill_switch === \"TRUE\") {\n await tg(\"⏸ TACTIC 3 — kill switch on. No scan.\"); return;\n }\n\n const leagues = sheet.leagues.filter((l) => l.enabled === true || l.enabled === \"TRUE\");\n const markets = sheet.markets.filter((m) => m.enabled === true || m.enabled === \"TRUE\");\n const mkt = (k: string) => markets.find((m) => m.market_key === k);\n const wanted = [\"h2h\", \"totals\"].filter((k) => mkt(k));\n if (!wanted.length) { await tg(\"⚠ No enabled markets in the sheet.\"); return; }\n\n const seen = new Set(sheet.open_bets.map((b: any) => String(b.id)));\n const cands: Cand[] = [];\n const allCands: Cand[] = [];\n let fixtures = 0, priced = 0, remaining = \"?\";\n const allEdges: number[] = [];\n const errors: string[] = [];\n const cover = { h2h: 0, totals: 0 };\n\n for (const lg of leagues) {\n let res;\n try { res = await fetchOdds(lg.sport_key, wanted.join(\",\")); }\n catch (e) { errors.push(`${lg.sport_key}: ${String(e).slice(0, 60)}`); continue; }\n if (res.remaining) remaining = res.remaining;\n\n for (const ev of res.events) {\n const hrs = hoursUntil(ev.commence_time);\n if (hrs < 2.5 || hrs > 30) continue;\n fixtures++;\n for (const key of wanted) {\n const out = evaluate(ev, key, lg, cfg, mkt(key), hrs, allEdges, allCands);\n priced += out.priced;\n if (out.priced) cover[key as \"h2h\" | \"totals\"]++;\n for (const c of out.cands) if (!seen.has(c.id)) cands.push(c);\n }\n }\n }\n\n cands.sort((a, b) => b.edge - a.edge);\n const passed = cands.filter((c) => c.grade === \"A\" && !c.veto);\n const bs = cands.filter((c) => c.grade === \"B\" && !c.veto);\n const useB = (cfg.b_grade_enabled === true || cfg.b_grade_enabled === \"TRUE\") && !passed.length;\n const selected = [\n ...passed.slice(0, Number(cfg.max_positions_per_day) || 2),\n ...(useB ? bs.slice(0, Number(cfg.b_max_per_day) || 1) : []),\n ];\n const selIds = new Set(selected.map((c) => c.id));\n\n const rows = cands.map((c) => ({\n id: c.id, date: today, scan: \"AM\", league: c.league, match: c.match,\n kickoff_utc: c.kickoff, market: c.market, line: c.line, selection: c.selection,\n betclic_odds: c.softMed, pinnacle_raw: c.sharpRaw, fair_odds: round(c.fair, 4),\n consensus_fair: c.softBest, n_books: c.nSoft, edge_pct: round(c.edge, 2),\n grade: c.grade,\n status: selIds.has(c.id) ? \"SELECTED\" : (c.veto || (c.grade === \"B\" ? \"LOGGED_B\" : \"OVER_CAP\")),\n veto_code: c.veto, units: selIds.has(c.id) ? round(c.units, 1) : \"\",\n stake_notional: selIds.has(c.id)\n ? round(c.units * Number(cfg.notional_bank) * Number(cfg.unit_pct) / 100, 2) : \"\",\n result: \"PENDING\",\n notes: `min ${round(c.minPrice, 2)} · best ${c.softBest} (${c.bestBook})`\n + ` · bcf ${c.bcf ?? \"n/a\"}${c.bcf ? \" (\" + (edgePct(c.bcf, c.fair) >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + round(edgePct(c.bcf, c.fair), 1) + \"%)\" : \"\"}`\n + ` · n=${c.nSoft} · overround ${round(c.overround * 100, 1)}%`,\n }));\n\n if (rows.length) await postSheet(\"log_bets\", { rows });\n await postSheet(\"set_state\", { values: { last_scan: new Date().toISOString() } });\n const shortlist = [...allCands]\n .filter((c) => !c.veto && c.nSoft >= 8)\n .map((c) => ({ ...c, bestEdge: edgePct(c.softBest, c.fair), minShow: c.fair * 1.02 }))\n .sort((a, b) => b.bestEdge - a.bestEdge)\n .slice(0, Number(cfg.shortlist_size) || 10);\n\n await tg(render({ today, fixtures, priced, cands, selected, remaining, errors, cfg,\n leagues: leagues.length, cover, allEdges, shortlist }));\n}\n\n/* ---------------- evaluation ---------------- */\n\nfunction evaluate(ev: Ev, key: string, lg: any, cfg: any, m: any, hrs: number, allEdges: number[], allCands: Cand[]) {\n const cands: Cand[] = [];\n let priced = 0;\n const sharp = bookMarket(ev, SHARP, key);\n if (!sharp) return { cands, priced };\n\n const name = `${ev.home_team} vs ${ev.away_team}`;\n const thrAdj = Number(m?.thr_adj ?? 0);\n const minBooks = Number(m?.min_books ?? 6);\n const maxOver = Number(m?.max_overround ?? 0.035);\n const capU = Number(m?.cap_u ?? 2);\n\n const consider = (line: string, sel: string, sharpO: number, fair: number,\n overround: number, matcher: (o: any) => boolean) => {\n const soft = softPrices(ev, key, matcher);\n if (!soft.length) return;\n priced++;\n const prices = soft.map((s) => s.price);\n const med = median(prices)!;\n const best = Math.max(...prices);\n const bestBook = soft.find((s) => s.price === best)!.key;\n // French Betclic — same group as Betclic PL, so worth watching even though\n // it is a different book. Reported only; never used for the edge.\n const bcf = soft.find((s) => s.key === \"betclic_fr\")?.price ?? null;\n\n const edge = edgePct(med, fair);\n allEdges.push(edge); // every priced selection, for calibration\n let thr = baseThreshold(cfg, hrs) + thrAdj;\n const keepForShortlist = true;\n if (MAJORS.has(lg.sport_key)) thr += Number(cfg.thr_major_penalty ?? 1);\n let veto = \"\";\n if (soft.length < minBooks) veto = \"THIN\";\n else if (overround > maxOver) veto = \"WIDE\";\n else if (med < Number(cfg.min_odds) || med > Number(cfg.max_odds)) veto = \"ODDS_RANGE\";\n\n const grade: \"A\" | \"B\" = edge >= thr ? \"A\" : \"B\";\n const units = Math.min(\n kellyUnits(med, fair, Number(cfg.kelly_fraction), Number(cfg.unit_pct)),\n grade === \"B\" ? Number(cfg.cap_b_u) : capU,\n );\n\n const rec = {\n id: `${ev.id}:${key}:${line}:${sel}`.replace(/\\s+/g, \"_\"),\n league: lg.sport_key, match: name, kickoff: ev.commence_time, hours: round(hrs, 1),\n market: key, line, selection: sel, softMed: round(med, 3), softBest: best,\n bestBook, bcf, nSoft: soft.length, sharpRaw: sharpO, fair,\n minPrice: fair * (1 + thr / 100), overround, edge, thr, grade, units, veto,\n };\n if (keepForShortlist) allCands.push(rec);\n if (edge >= Number(cfg.b_grade_min)) cands.push(rec);\n };\n\n if (key === \"totals\") {\n const byPoint = new Map();\n for (const o of sharp.outcomes) {\n const e = byPoint.get(o.point) ?? {}; e[o.name] = o.price; byPoint.set(o.point, e);\n }\n for (const [point, sh] of byPoint) {\n // Betclic PL only offers half lines (0.5 ... 6.5). Pinnacle also quotes\n // whole and quarter lines, where a whole number pushes on an exact score.\n // Those are unbettable for us, so never recommend one.\n if (Math.round(point * 10) % 10 !== 5) continue;\n if (point < 0.5 || point > 6.5) continue;\n if (!sh.Over || !sh.Under) continue;\n const d = devigMultiplicative([sh.Over, sh.Under]);\n consider(String(point), \"Over\", sh.Over, d.fair[0], d.overround,\n (o) => o.name === \"Over\" && o.point === point);\n consider(String(point), \"Under\", sh.Under, d.fair[1], d.overround,\n (o) => o.name === \"Under\" && o.point === point);\n }\n } else if (key === \"h2h\") {\n if (sharp.outcomes.length !== 3) return { cands, priced };\n const d = devigShin(sharp.outcomes.map((o: any) => o.price));\n sharp.outcomes.forEach((so: any, i: number) => {\n consider(\"\", so.name, so.price, d.fair[i], d.overround, (o) => o.name === so.name);\n });\n }\n return { cands, priced };\n}\n\n/* ---------------- telegram ---------------- */\n\nfunction render(x: any) {\n const L: string[] = [];\n L.push(`📋 TACTIC 3 · PAPER · ${x.today} ${warsawTime()}`);\n L.push(`${x.fixtures} fixtures / ${x.leagues} leagues · ${x.priced} selections priced`);\n L.push(`h2h ${x.cover.h2h} · totals ${x.cover.totals} · credits left ${x.remaining}`);\n L.push(`${x.cands.length} above floor → ${x.selected.length} selected`);\n L.push(\"\");\n\n if (!x.selected.length) {\n L.push(\"── CHECK THESE ON BETCLIC PL ──\");\n L.push(\"Ranked by how generous the best European book is.\");\n L.push(\"Bet only if Betclic beats the MIN price.\");\n L.push(\"\");\n for (const c of x.shortlist) {\n L.push(`${c.match}`);\n L.push(` ${c.selection}${c.line ? \" \" + c.line : \"\"} · MIN ${round(c.minShow, 2)} · fair ${round(c.fair, 2)}`);\n L.push(` best ${c.softBest} (${c.bestBook}) · median ${c.softMed}${c.bcf ? ` · bcf ${c.bcf}` : \"\"}`);\n }\n } else {\n for (const c of x.selected) {\n const stake = round(c.units * Number(x.cfg.notional_bank) * Number(x.cfg.unit_pct) / 100, 0);\n L.push(`[${c.grade} · ${c.market}] ${c.match}`);\n L.push(` ${c.selection}${c.line ? \" \" + c.line : \"\"} · KO in ${c.hours}h`);\n L.push(` Pinnacle fair ${round(c.fair, 2)} · market median ${c.softMed} · +${round(c.edge, 1)}%`);\n L.push(` best out there ${c.softBest} (${c.bestBook}) · ${c.nSoft} books`);\n if (c.bcf) L.push(` Betclic FR has ${c.bcf}`);\n L.push(` ⚠ Only counts if Betclic PL ≥ ${round(c.minPrice, 2)}`);\n L.push(` ${round(c.units, 1)}u = ${stake} PLN notional`);\n }\n }\n\n const vetoed = x.cands.filter((c: Cand) => c.veto);\n if (vetoed.length) {\n L.push(\"\");\n L.push(`── flagged (${vetoed.length}) ──`);\n for (const c of vetoed.slice(0, 4)) L.push(` [${c.veto}] ${c.match} — ${c.selection}${c.line ? \" \" + c.line : \"\"}`);\n }\n if (x.allEdges.length > 20) {\n const s2 = [...x.allEdges].sort((a: number, b: number) => a - b);\n const q = (p: number) => round(s2[Math.floor(p * s2.length)], 1);\n const over = (t: number) => s2.filter((e: number) => e >= t).length;\n L.push(\"\");\n L.push(\"── edge distribution (all priced) ──\");\n L.push(` p50 ${q(0.5)}% · p90 ${q(0.9)}% · p95 ${q(0.95)}% · p99 ${q(0.99)}% · max ${round(s2[s2.length - 1], 1)}%`);\n L.push(` ≥0% ${over(0)} · ≥1.2% ${over(1.2)} · ≥2.5% ${over(2.5)} · ≥4% ${over(4)}`);\n }\n if (x.errors.length) { L.push(\"\"); L.push(`⚠ ${x.errors.length} league(s) errored`); }\n L.push(\"\");\n L.push(\"Paper only. Prices are the European market median — Betclic PL must be checked.\");\n return L.join(\"\\n\");\n}",[],[202],"68c16b96-c910-4a0f-8c8d-a547ea6d822b","lib.ts","861c6200-a413-11f1-90af-1607ee4eb77e",16,["D",1788057306066],"/** TACTIC 3 — shared helpers. Paste as lib.ts (file type: script) */\n\nexport const ENV = {\n oddsKey: () => Deno.env.get(\"ODDS_API_KEY\")!,\n sheetUrl: () => Deno.env.get(\"SHEET_URL\")!,\n sheetSecret: () => Deno.env.get(\"SHEET_SECRET\")!,\n tgToken: () => Deno.env.get(\"TELEGRAM_TOKEN\")!,\n tgChat: () => Deno.env.get(\"TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID\")!,\n};\n\nexport const SHARP = \"pinnacle\";\n\n/** Exchanges price net of commission, so they are not comparable to a\n * bookmaker's posted price. Excluded from the soft sample. */\nexport const EXCHANGES = new Set([\"betfair_ex_eu\", \"betfair_ex_uk\", \"matchbook\", \"smarkets\"]);\n\n/** The Odds API carries no Polish bookmaker — \"betclic_fr\" is French Betclic,\n * a different book that never quotes totals. So the screen compares Pinnacle's\n * fair price against the MEDIAN European soft book, which is what Betclic PL is.\n * The user then confirms the real price at Betclic PL before anything is placed. */\nexport function softPrices(ev: Ev, marketKey: string, match: (o: any) => boolean) {\n const out: { key: string; price: number }[] = [];\n for (const b of ev.bookmakers ?? []) {\n if (b.key === SHARP || EXCHANGES.has(b.key)) continue;\n const m = b.markets?.find((x: any) => x.key === marketKey);\n const o = m?.outcomes?.find(match);\n if (o?.price) out.push({ key: b.key, price: o.price });\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nexport function median(a: number[]): number | null {\n if (!a.length) return null;\n const s = [...a].sort((x, y) => x - y);\n const i = Math.floor(s.length / 2);\n return s.length % 2 ? s[i] : (s[i - 1] + s[i]) / 2;\n}\n\n/* ---------- sheet ---------- */\n\nexport async function readSheet() {\n const r = await fetch(`${ENV.sheetUrl()}?secret=${encodeURIComponent(ENV.sheetSecret())}`);\n const j = await r.json();\n if (!j.ok) throw new Error(\"sheet read failed: \" + JSON.stringify(j));\n return j as {\n config: Record;\n state: Record;\n markets: any[];\n leagues: any[];\n open_bets: any[];\n };\n}\n\nexport async function postSheet(action: string, payload: Record) {\n const r = await fetch(ENV.sheetUrl(), {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"text/plain;charset=utf-8\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ secret: ENV.sheetSecret(), action, ...payload }),\n });\n const j = await r.json();\n if (j.error) throw new Error(\"sheet write failed: \" + j.error);\n return j;\n}\n\n/* ---------- telegram ---------- */\n\nexport async function tg(text: string) {\n const r = await fetch(`https://api.telegram.org/bot${ENV.tgToken()}/sendMessage`, {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({\n chat_id: ENV.tgChat(),\n text,\n parse_mode: \"HTML\",\n disable_web_page_preview: true,\n }),\n });\n const j = await r.json();\n if (!j.ok) console.error(\"telegram failed\", j);\n return j;\n}\n\n/* ---------- de-vig ---------- */\n\n/** 2-way / proportional. Returns fair decimal odds in the same order. */\nexport function devigMultiplicative(odds: number[]) {\n const q = odds.map((o) => 1 / o);\n const s = q.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n return { fair: q.map((x) => s / x), overround: s - 1 };\n}\n\n/** Shin's method for 3-way. Corrects the favourite-longshot bias that\n * proportional de-vigging introduces — on lopsided books the difference\n * in the longshot's fair price exceeds 10%. */\nexport function devigShin(odds: number[]) {\n const q = odds.map((o) => 1 / o);\n const PI = q.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n const p = (z: number) =>\n q.map((qi) => (Math.sqrt(z * z + 4 * (1 - z) * qi * qi / PI) - z) / (2 * (1 - z)));\n const sum = (z: number) => p(z).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n let lo = 1e-9, hi = 0.45;\n for (let i = 0; i < 120; i++) {\n const m = (lo + hi) / 2;\n if (sum(m) > 1) lo = m; else hi = m;\n }\n const z = (lo + hi) / 2;\n const pr = p(z);\n const tot = pr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n return { fair: pr.map((x) => tot / x), overround: PI - 1, z };\n}\n\n/* ---------- odds api ---------- */\n\nexport interface Ev {\n id: string; sport_key: string; commence_time: string;\n home_team: string; away_team: string; bookmakers: any[];\n}\n\nexport async function fetchOdds(sportKey: string, markets: string) {\n const u = `https://api.the-odds-api.com/v4/sports/${sportKey}/odds/` +\n `?apiKey=${ENV.oddsKey()}®ions=eu&markets=${markets}` +\n `&oddsFormat=decimal&dateFormat=iso`;\n const r = await fetch(u);\n const remaining = r.headers.get(\"x-requests-remaining\");\n if (r.status === 422) return { events: [] as Ev[], remaining }; // market not offered\n if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`odds api ${sportKey} -> ${r.status} ${await r.text()}`);\n return { events: (await r.json()) as Ev[], remaining };\n}\n\nexport function bookMarket(ev: Ev, bookKey: string, marketKey: string) {\n const b = ev.bookmakers?.find((x) => x.key === bookKey);\n return b?.markets?.find((m: any) => m.key === marketKey) ?? null;\n}\n\nexport function countBooks(ev: Ev, marketKey: string) {\n return (ev.bookmakers ?? []).filter((b) =>\n b.markets?.some((m: any) => m.key === marketKey)).length;\n}\n\n/* ---------- staking ---------- */\n\nexport function edgePct(soft: number, fair: number) {\n return (soft / fair - 1) * 100;\n}\n\nexport function kellyUnits(soft: number, fair: number, frac: number, unitPct: number) {\n const p = 1 / fair;\n const k = (soft * p - 1) / (soft - 1);\n return (k * frac * 100) / unitPct;\n}\n\nexport function baseThreshold(cfg: Record, hoursToKo: number) {\n if (hoursToKo >= 24) return Number(cfg.thr_24_30h);\n if (hoursToKo >= 8) return Number(cfg.thr_8_24h);\n return Number(cfg.thr_2_8h);\n}\n\n/* ---------- misc ---------- */\n\nexport const round = (n: number, d = 2) => Math.round(n * 10 ** d) / 10 ** d;\nexport const hoursUntil = (iso: string) => (new Date(iso).getTime() - Date.now()) / 3.6e6;\nexport const warsawDate = (d = new Date()) =>\n new Intl.DateTimeFormat(\"sv-SE\", { timeZone: \"Europe/Warsaw\" }).format(d);\nexport const warsawTime = (d = new Date()) =>\n new Intl.DateTimeFormat(\"en-GB\", {\n timeZone: \"Europe/Warsaw\", hour: \"2-digit\", minute: \"2-digit\",\n }).format(d);",[],[209],"b33c538f-d79a-4fea-8cc7-d66bc3534c59","close.ts","3705d3a0-a417-11f1-884c-1607ee4eb77e",19,["D",1788059607080],4,"/** TACTIC 3 — closing-line capture. File type: interval.\n * Cron: 0,30 * * * * (every 30 min)\n * Grabs Pinnacle's price just before kickoff for every logged candidate,\n * selected or not. This is the measurement the whole project exists for.\n */\nimport {\n bookMarket,\n devigMultiplicative,\n devigShin,\n type Ev,\n fetchOdds,\n hoursUntil,\n postSheet,\n readSheet,\n round,\n SHARP,\n} from \"./lib.ts\";\n\nexport default async function (_interval: any) {\n const sheet = await readSheet();\n\n // rows still open, kicking off inside the next 45 minutes, not yet captured\n // Only SELECTED rows get a closing price. Sweeping every logged candidate\n // costs a per-league API call each time and would outspend the scan itself.\n const due = sheet.open_bets.filter((b: any) => {\n if (String(b.status) !== \"SELECTED\") return false;\n if (!b.kickoff_utc || b.pinnacle_close) return false;\n const h = hoursUntil(String(b.kickoff_utc));\n return h > -0.25 && h < 0.75;\n });\n if (!due.length) return;\n\n const byLeague = new Map();\n for (const b of due) {\n const k = String(b.league);\n byLeague.set(k, [...(byLeague.get(k) ?? []), b]);\n }\n\n const updates: any[] = [];\n for (const [league, bets] of byLeague) {\n const need = [...new Set(bets.map((b) => String(b.market)))].join(\",\");\n let evs: Ev[];\n try {\n evs = (await fetchOdds(league, need)).events;\n } catch (e) {\n console.error(\"close fetch failed\", league, String(e));\n continue;\n }\n for (const b of bets) {\n const eventId = String(b.id).split(\":\")[0];\n const ev = evs.find((e) => e.id === eventId);\n if (!ev) continue;\n const fair = closingFair(\n ev,\n String(b.market),\n String(b.line),\n String(b.selection),\n );\n if (!fair) continue;\n const taken = Number(b.betclic_odds);\n updates.push({\n id: b.id,\n pinnacle_close: round(fair, 4),\n clv_pct: round((taken / fair - 1) * 100, 2),\n });\n }\n }\n\n if (updates.length) {\n await postSheet(\"settle\", { updates });\n console.log(`captured ${updates.length} closing prices`);\n }\n}\n\nfunction closingFair(\n ev: Ev,\n market: string,\n line: string,\n selection: string,\n): number | null {\n const m = bookMarket(ev, SHARP, market);\n if (!m) return null;\n\n if (market === \"totals\") {\n const pt = Number(line);\n const over = m.outcomes.find((o: any) =>\n o.name === \"Over\" && o.point === pt\n );\n const under = m.outcomes.find((o: any) =>\n o.name === \"Under\" && o.point === pt\n );\n if (!over || !under) return null;\n const d = devigMultiplicative([over.price, under.price]);\n return selection === \"Over\" ? d.fair[0] : d.fair[1];\n }\n\n if (market === \"h2h\") {\n if (m.outcomes.length !== 3) return null;\n const d = devigShin(m.outcomes.map((o: any) => o.price));\n const i = m.outcomes.findIndex((o: any) => o.name === selection);\n return i >= 0 ? d.fair[i] : null;\n }\n return null;\n}",[],[217],["D",1788053918612],["D",1789458074143],{"_11":12,"_149":72},{"_11":12,"_144":145,"_71":72,"_30":70,"_146":147,"_148":24},{"_41":135,"_13":16,"_35":38,"_136":98,"_137":-5,"_138":-5,"_139":-5,"_140":-5,"_141":-5,"_142":14,"_143":12},"ctx",{"_54":-5,"_168":263,"_264":265,"_266":267,"_268":24,"_269":24,"_270":24,"_271":196,"_272":-5,"_273":-7,"_274":-7,"_275":26,"_276":24,"_277":24,"_278":-5,"_279":24,"_280":24,"_281":24,"_282":-5},"ENV",{"_234":235,"_236":237,"_238":16,"_239":240,"_241":242,"_243":244,"_245":246,"_247":248,"_249":250,"_251":252,"_253":254,"_255":256,"_257":258,"_259":260,"_261":262},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

History · settle.ts