[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_201":202,"_203":204},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_93":92,"_31":43,"_102":83,"_26":103,"_13":14,"_104":-5,"_11":105,"_106":107,"_108":109,"_110":111,"_112":113,"_20":-5,"_114":-5,"_115":-5,"_116":24,"_117":118,"_119":24,"_120":-5,"_121":-5,"_122":123},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_41":42,"_31":43,"_36":44,"_45":-5,"_46":24,"_47":48,"_49":48,"_50":51,"_52":-5,"_18":53,"_54":-5,"_55":24,"_56":-5,"_57":-5,"_58":59,"_60":61,"_62":-5,"_63":-5,"_64":-5,"_65":-5,"_66":67,"_68":67,"_69":70,"_71":70,"_72":70,"_73":67,"_74":67,"_75":76,"_77":78,"_79":80,"_81":24},"version",9,"changes",[19],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_20":21,"_22":-7,"_23":24,"_25":24,"_26":27,"_28":27},"file",{"_29":30,"_31":27,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":14,"_39":40,"_23":24},"previous","deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","pair_fate.ts","latestPath","fileId","78653e0c-a049-11f1-82f9-1607ee4eb77e","name","fileType","script","content","const WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30',LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number};const ticks=new Map();function N(s:any){return(!s||s==='n/a')?NaN:+s;}\nconst lr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!lr.ok||!lr.body)throw Error('log');const rd=lr.body.getReader(),dc=new TextDecoder();let buf='';while(true){const{value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;buf+=dc.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);if(!line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-'))continue;const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\]/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[3]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))){const t={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,old:+m[3],twap:+m[4],u:+m[5],d:+m[6]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}}}for(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((a,b)=>a.ts-b.ts);\nlet cp:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<5000;off+=50){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/closed-positions?user=${WAL}&limit=50&offset=${off}&sortBy=TIMESTAMP&sortDirection=DESC`)).json();if(!j.length)break;cp.push(...j);}const gm=new Map();for(const p of cp){if(p.slug?.startsWith('btc-updown-5m-')&&ticks.has(p.slug)&&!gm.has(p.conditionId))gm.set(p.conditionId,{conditionId:p.conditionId,slug:p.slug});}const markets=[...gm.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,12);\nasync function tr(c:string,to:boolean){let z:any[]=[];for(let o=0;o<3000;o+=100){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`)).json();if(!j.length)break;z.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return z;}function key(t:any){return[t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,(+t.size).toFixed(8),(+t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}function near(s:string,ts:number){let b:any=null,bd=1e9;for(const x of ticks.get(s)||[]){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(d{const side=t.outcome.toUpperCase(),q=+t.size,p=+t.price,role=ks.has(key(t))?'TAKER':'MAKER',ib=qU-qD,ia=ib+(side==='UP'?q:-q),x=near(m.slug,+t.timestamp);if(side==='UP')qU+=q;else qD+=q;return{id:key(t)+'#'+i,slug:m.slug,side,q,left:q,c:p+fee(p,role),role,p,ts:+t.timestamp,matchQ:0,posQ:0,edgeSum:0,x,rebal:Math.abs(ia)l.side==='UP').sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c),D=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='DOWN').sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c);let i=0,j=0;while(i0){a.posQ+=q;b.posQ+=q;}a.left-=q;b.left-=q;if(a.left<1e-9)i++;if(b.left<1e-9)j++;}\n takLots.push(...lots.filter(l=>l.role==='TAKER'&&l.x));}\nfunction S(z:L[]){const q=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q,0),mq=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.matchQ,0),pq=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.posQ,0),not=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q*l.p,0);return{lots:z.length,q,notional:not,eventualMatchedPct:mq/q,eventualPositivePairPct:pq/q,avgAssignedEdge:mq?z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.edgeSum,0)/mq:NaN};}\nconst tagged=takLots.map(l=>{const fav=l.x.u>l.x.d?'UP':'DOWN',old=l.x.old>=0?'UP':'DOWN',tw=l.x.twap>=0?'UP':'DOWN';return{...l,fav,old,tw,nonfav:l.side!==fav,strict:l.side===fav&&l.side===old&&l.side===tw};});\nconsole.log('ALL',S(tagged));console.log('CHEAP_NONFAV',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.p<.5&&l.nonfav)));console.log('CHEAP_NONFAV_NONREBAL',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.p<.5&&l.nonfav&&!l.rebal)));console.log('STRICT_DIR',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.strict)));console.log('HIGH_FAV',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.p>.5&&!l.nonfav)));\nconst d=tagged.filter(l=>l.p<.5&&l.nonfav&&!l.rebal).sort((a,b)=>b.posQ/b.q-a.posQ/a.q);console.log('D_FATE_SAMPLE',d.slice(0,25).map(l=>({slug:l.slug,side:l.side,p:l.p,q:l.q,rebal:l.rebal,fav:l.fav,old:l.old,tw:l.tw,matchedPct:l.matchQ/l.q,posPairPct:l.posQ/l.q,avgEdge:l.matchQ?l.edgeSum/l.matchQ:null})));\n","createdAt",["D",1787637283808],"branchVersion","branchId","9d40217d-c61c-40ef-8c38-7b3d9418280a","id","be8d73ba-65d5-43f6-a82f-cf6d74f2b655","bonereaper-research",["D",1787635928982],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Stream BoneReaper and BTC log analysis","imageUrl","b13d5b98-32fd-4204-bf50-fce395eb52e3","pinnedFileId","pinPreview","pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","01a0186b-55d3-76bb-8f28-5e239a5e05cf","tursoName","tursoHostname","tursoMeasuredAt","pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_93":92,"_101":97},"org",{"_93":92,"_94":95,"_96":97,"_18":53,"_98":99,"_100":24},"branch",{"_13":82,"_31":83,"_41":40,"_84":42,"_85":-5,"_86":-5,"_87":-5,"_88":-5,"_89":-5,"_90":43,"_91":92},"isOwned",28,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","lorencetang","handle","displayName","Lorence Tang","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXYNWn4Fg7SDJtPMUkccTZpjUdPW31lGVY1hyWwUNH-uR15Q=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_41":42,"_31":43,"_36":197,"_45":-5,"_46":24,"_47":48,"_49":48,"_50":51,"_52":-5,"_18":53,"_54":-5,"_55":24,"_56":-5,"_57":-5,"_58":59,"_60":61,"_62":-5,"_63":-5,"_64":-5,"_65":-5,"_66":67,"_68":67,"_69":70,"_71":70,"_72":70,"_73":67,"_74":67,"_75":198,"_77":199,"_79":200,"_81":24},"tree",[176,177,178,179,180],"files",[176,177,178,179,180],"counts",{"_165":59,"_166":167,"_168":59,"_169":170,"_171":172},"contents",[124,125,126,127,128],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_41":158,"_31":159,"_29":160,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":161,"_134":146,"_36":162,"_13":148,"_32":33,"_34":163,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_26":164},{"_41":151,"_31":152,"_29":153,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":154,"_134":146,"_36":155,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":156,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_26":157},{"_41":142,"_31":143,"_29":144,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":145,"_134":146,"_36":147,"_13":148,"_32":33,"_34":149,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_26":150},{"_41":139,"_31":27,"_29":30,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":14,"_134":24,"_36":140,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_26":141},{"_41":129,"_31":130,"_29":131,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":133,"_134":24,"_36":135,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":136,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_26":138},"6a254788-6d72-4092-aeca-84864f521a83","pair_recon.ts","49b3a9a4-a049-11f1-8b2a-1607ee4eb77e","parentId",8,"latest",["D",1787637205452],"const WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30', LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map(), outcomes=new Map();function N(s:any){if(!s||s==='n/a')return NaN;return +s;}\nconst lr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!lr.ok||!lr.body)throw Error('log');const rd=lr.body.getReader(),dec=new TextDecoder();let buf='';while(true){const{value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const t={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[3],old:+m[4],twap:+m[5],u:+m[6],d:+m[7],top:+m[8],imb:+m[9]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}}if(line.includes('[Event PnL]')&&line.includes('event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/);if(m)outcomes.set(m[1],m[2]);}}}for(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((a,b)=>a.ts-b.ts);\nlet cp:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<5000;off+=50){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/closed-positions?user=${WAL}&limit=50&offset=${off}&sortBy=TIMESTAMP&sortDirection=DESC`)).json();if(!Array.isArray(j)||!j.length)break;cp.push(...j);if(j.length<50)break;}\nconst gm=new Map();for(const p of cp){if(!p.slug?.startsWith('btc-updown-5m-')||!ticks.has(p.slug))continue;let g=gm.get(p.conditionId);if(!g){g={conditionId:p.conditionId,slug:p.slug};gm.set(p.conditionId,g);}}\nconst markets=[...gm.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,12);\nasync function trades(c:string,to:boolean){let z:any[]=[];for(let o=0;o<3000;o+=100){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`)).json();if(!j.length)break;z.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return z;}\nfunction key(t:any){return[t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,(+t.size).toFixed(8),(+t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}\nfunction nearest(slug:string,ts:number){const a=ticks.get(slug)||[];let b:any=null,bd=9e9;for(const x of a){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(d({...x})),D:s.D.map(x=>({...x}))};}\nfunction matchAndAdd(s:State,side:'UP'|'DOWN',q:number,c:number,mode:'FIFO'|'LIFO'|'OPT'){const opp=side==='UP'?s.D:s.U, own=side==='UP'?s.U:s.D;let need=q,mc=0,mq=0;while(need>1e-9&&opp.length){let idx=mode==='FIFO'?0:mode==='LIFO'?opp.length-1:opp.reduce((bi,l,i,a)=>l.c1e-9)own.push({q:need,c});return{mq,oppAvg:mq?mc/mq:NaN,pairCost:mq?c+mc/mq:NaN,pairEdge:mq?1-c-mc/mq:NaN};}\nlet rows:any[]=[];\nfor(const m of markets){const all=await trades(m.conditionId,false),tak=await trades(m.conditionId,true),tk=new Set(tak.map(key));const rr=all.map((t:any)=>({...t,role:tk.has(key(t))?'TAKER':'MAKER'})).sort((a:any,b:any)=>+a.timestamp-+b.timestamp||a.transactionHash.localeCompare(b.transactionHash));const st:any={FIFO:{U:[],D:[]},LIFO:{U:[],D:[]},OPT:{U:[],D:[]}};let qU=0,qD=0;\n for(const t of rr){const side=t.outcome.toUpperCase() as 'UP'|'DOWN',q=+t.size,p=+t.price,c=p+feeUnit(p,t.role),ib=qU-qD,ia=ib+(side==='UP'?q:-q),rebal=Math.abs(ia)x.d?'UP':'DOWN',old=x.old>=0?'UP':'DOWN',tw=x.twap>=0?'UP':'DOWN';rows.push({slug:m.slug,ts:+t.timestamp,rem:x.rem,side,p,size:q,c,notional:p*q,ib,ia,rebal,fav,old,tw,strictDir:side===fav&&side===old&&side===tw,alignFav:side===fav,alignOld:side===old,alignTw:side===tw,pairF:info.FIFO.pairEdge,pairL:info.LIFO.pairEdge,pairO:info.OPT.pairEdge,mqF:info.FIFO.mq,mqL:info.LIFO.mq,mqO:info.OPT.mq,winner:outcomes.get(m.slug),won:side===outcomes.get(m.slug)});}}\n}\nfunction pct(n:number,d:number){return d?n/d:NaN;}function summary(z:any[]){const n=z.length;const q=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(r[k]?1:0),0),s=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(Number.isFinite(r[k])?r[k]:0),0);const pe=z.filter(r=>Number.isFinite(r.pairO)).map(r=>r.pairO).sort((a,b)=>a-b);return{n,notional:s('notional'),strictDir:pct(q('strictDir'),n),fav:pct(q('alignFav'),n),old:pct(q('alignOld'),n),tw:pct(q('alignTw'),n),rebal:pct(q('rebal'),n),pairPosFIFO:pct(z.filter(r=>r.pairF>0).length,n),pairPosLIFO:pct(z.filter(r=>r.pairL>0).length,n),pairPosOPT:pct(z.filter(r=>r.pairO>0).length,n),won:pct(q('won'),n),pairOmed:pe.length?pe[Math.floor(pe.length/2)]:NaN};}\nconsole.log('ALL',summary(rows));\nconst prices=rows.map(r=>r.p).sort((a,b)=>a-b),q25=prices[Math.floor(.25*(prices.length-1))],q75=prices[Math.floor(.75*(prices.length-1))];console.log('price q25/q75',q25,q75);\nfor(const [name,z] of [['LOW_Q',rows.filter(r=>r.p<=q25)],['MID',rows.filter(r=>r.p>q25&&r.p<=q75)],['HIGH_Q',rows.filter(r=>r.p>q75)],['NONFAV',rows.filter(r=>!r.alignFav)],['FAV',rows.filter(r=>r.alignFav)],['STRICT_DIR',rows.filter(r=>r.strictDir)],['REBAL',rows.filter(r=>r.rebal)],['PAIR_OPT_POS',rows.filter(r=>r.pairO>0)],['CHEAP_NONFAV',rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav)] ] as any)console.log(name,summary(z));\n// Cross-evidence classifications, not mutually exclusive\nconst cross={A_strict_direction:rows.filter(r=>r.strictDir).length,B_rebalance:rows.filter(r=>r.rebal).length,C_opt_pair_positive:rows.filter(r=>r.pairO>0).length,D_cheap_nonfav_noBC:rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav&&!r.rebal&&!(r.pairO>0)).length,none:rows.filter(r=>!r.strictDir&&!r.rebal&&!(r.pairO>0)&&!(r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav)).length};console.log('EVIDENCE_COUNTS',cross,'N',rows.length);\nconsole.log('C_examples',rows.filter(r=>r.pairO>0).sort((a,b)=>b.pairO-a.pairO).slice(0,20).map(r=>({slug:r.slug,rem:r.rem,side:r.side,p:r.p,size:r.size,ib:r.ib,ia:r.ia,rebal:r.rebal,fav:r.fav,old:r.old,tw:r.tw,pairO:r.pairO,mqO:r.mqO})));\nconsole.log('D_examples',rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav&&!r.rebal&&!(r.pairO>0)).slice(0,20).map(r=>({slug:r.slug,rem:r.rem,side:r.side,p:r.p,size:r.size,ib:r.ib,ia:r.ia,fav:r.fav,old:r.old,tw:r.tw,pairO:r.pairO})));\n","label",[130],"4dd882a1-8bd0-4ebb-b6f3-2c1042da237a",["D",1787637283808],[27],"2321527f-1fd0-4476-8ecb-0451eb174b6d","main.ts","50e25aca-a046-11f1-8342-1607ee4eb77e",3,true,["D",1787636027917],2,"const url='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\nconst events = [\n {slug:'btc-updown-5m-1787632500', start:1787632500, fillTs:[1787632473,1787632489,1787632491,1787632503,1787632560,1787632609,1787632612,1787632653,1787632672,1787632686,1787632696,1787632731]},\n {slug:'btc-updown-5m-1787634600', start:1787634600, fillTs:[1787634619,1787634651,1787634655,1787634670,1787634672,1787634673,1787634684,1787634688,1787634690,1787634714,1787634724,1787634733,1787634744,1787634745,1787634748,1787634753,1787634754,1787634757,1787634763,1787634771,1787634774,1787634786,1787634787,1787634795,1787634796,1787634798,1787634799,1787634801,1787634810,1787634813,1787634817,1787634826,1787634829,1787634831,1787634837,1787634840,1787634846,1787634847,1787634850,1787634855,1787634856,1787634858,1787634864,1787634867,1787634870,1787634871]}\n];\nconst wanted = new Map>();\nfor (const e of events) {\n const s=new Set();\n for (const ts of e.fillTs) {\n const age=ts-e.start;\n for(let d=-2;d<=2;d++) s.add(age+d);\n }\n wanted.set(e.slug,s);\n}\nconst r=await fetch(url,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});\nif(!r.ok||!r.body) throw new Error('fetch '+r.status);\nconst reader=r.body.getReader(), dec=new TextDecoder(); let buf='';\nconst out: Record = Object.fromEntries(events.map(e=>[e.slug,[]]));\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await reader.read(); if(done)break; buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true}); let i; while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);for(const e of events){if(!line.includes(e.slug)||!line.includes('[BSPS_TICK]'))continue;const m=line.match(/age_s=(-?\\d+)/);if(m&&wanted.get(e.slug)!.has(Number(m[1])))out[e.slug].push(line);}}}\nfor(const e of events){\n console.log('\\n###',e.slug,'fills age',e.fillTs.map(x=>x-e.start).join(','));\n for(const line of out[e.slug]) console.log(line);\n}\n",[143],"6e9a1575-cda3-470b-bc93-e4a76f2c7f4a","fair_model.ts","d6c06d1a-a048-11f1-9851-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1787637012611],"const URL='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\n\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map();\nconst outcomes=new Map();\nconst eventTs=new Map();\n\nfunction num(s:string|undefined){ if(!s||s==='n/a') return NaN; return Number(s); }\nconst r=await fetch(URL,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}}); if(!r.ok||!r.body) throw Error('fetch '+r.status);\nconst rd=r.body.getReader(), dec=new TextDecoder(); let buf='';\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await rd.read(); if(done)break; buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true}); let i;\n while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);\n if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){\n const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-(\\d+)).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);\n if(m){const old=num(m[5]),twap=num(m[6]); if(Number.isFinite(old)&&Number.isFinite(twap)){\n const t:Tick={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[4],old,twap:+m[6],u:+m[7],d:+m[8],top:+m[9],imb:+m[10]};\n if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]); ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t); eventTs.set(t.slug,+m[3]);\n }}\n }\n if(line.includes('[Event PnL]')&&line.includes('event=btc-updown-5m-')){\n const m=line.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-(\\d+)).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/); if(m){outcomes.set(m[1],m[3]==='UP'?1:0);eventTs.set(m[1],+m[2]);}\n }\n }}\nconst slugs=[...outcomes.keys()].filter(s=>ticks.has(s)).sort((a,b)=>(eventTs.get(a)!-eventTs.get(b)!));\nconsole.log('events',slugs.length,'first',slugs[0],'last',slugs.at(-1));\nconst remTargets=[240,180,120,90,60,30];\nfunction nearest(arr:Tick[],target:number){let best=arr[0],bd=1e9;for(const t of arr){const d=Math.abs(t.rem-target);if(dtrainSlugs.has(r.slug)), test=rows.filter(r=>testSlugs.has(r.slug));\nconsole.log('trainEvents',split,'testEvents',slugs.length-split,'trainRows',train.length,'testRows',test.length);\n\nfunction stats(data:Row[],idx:number[]){const mu=idx.map(j=>data.reduce((a,r)=>a+r.x[j],0)/data.length);const sd=idx.map((j,k)=>Math.sqrt(data.reduce((a,r)=>a+(r.x[j]-mu[k])**2,0)/data.length)||1);return{mu,sd};}\nfunction sig(z:number){if(z>30)return 1;if(z<-30)return 0;return 1/(1+Math.exp(-z));}\nfunction fit(data:Row[],idx:number[]){const st=stats(data,idx);let w=new Array(idx.length+1).fill(0);const lr=.05,lam=.002;\n for(let it=0;it<3500;it++){let g=new Array(w.length).fill(0);for(const r of data){let z=w[0];for(let k=0;k{let z=w[0];for(let k=0;knumber){let br=0,ll=0,acc=0;const ps:{p:number,y:number}[]=[];for(const r of data){const p=clamp(pred(r));br+=(p-r.y)**2;ll+=-(r.y*Math.log(p)+(1-r.y)*Math.log(1-p));acc+=((p>=.5?1:0)===r.y)?1:0;ps.push({p,y:r.y});} // AUC rank\n ps.sort((a,b)=>a.p-b.p);let pos=ps.reduce((a,z)=>a+z.y,0),neg=ps.length-pos,rankSum=0;for(let i=0;ir.pm),'test',metrics(test,r=>r.pm));continue;}const m=fit(train,[...idx]);const mt=metrics(test,m.pred);console.log(name,'w',m.w.map((x:number)=>+x.toFixed(4)),'train',metrics(train,m.pred),'test',mt);if(!best||mt.loglossMath.abs(r.rem-rt)<=3);if(!z.length)continue;const a=metrics(z,r=>r.pm),b=metrics(z,best.m.pred);console.log('REM',rt,'n',z.length,'market',a,'best',b);}\n\n// Natural taker-EV simulation on TEST: at most one new trade per event, scan from rem<=240 to >=30, first |edge| after taker fee > 0.\n// fee/share for crypto: 0.07*p*(1-p); buy cost uses ask + fee/share.\nconst bySlug=new Map();for(const s of slugs.slice(split)){bySlug.set(s,ticks.get(s)!.slice().sort((a,b)=>b.rem-a.rem));}\nfunction rowFromTick(t:Tick):Row{const f=feat(t);return{slug:t.slug,y:outcomes.get(t.slug)!,x:f.x,pm:f.pm,rem:t.rem,uask:t.u,dask:t.d};}\nfunction fee(p:number){return .07*p*(1-p);}\nconst sims:any[]=[];\nfor(const [s,arr] of bySlug){let chosen:any=null;for(const t of arr){if(t.rem>240||t.rem<30)continue;const rr=rowFromTick(t),pf=best.m.pred(rr);const upCost=t.u+fee(t.u),dnCost=t.d+fee(t.d);const evU=pf-upCost,evD=(1-pf)-dnCost;if(evU>0||evD>0){const side=evU>=evD?'UP':'DOWN',ev=Math.max(evU,evD),px=side==='UP'?t.u:t.d,cost=side==='UP'?upCost:dnCost;chosen={slug:s,y:rr.y,side,rem:t.rem,pfair:pf,pm:rr.pm,px,cost,ev,win:(side==='UP'?rr.y===1:rr.y===0)};break;}}\n if(chosen)sims.push(chosen);\n}\nlet pnl=0,spent=0,wins=0;for(const z of sims){spent+=z.cost;pnl+=(z.win?1:0)-z.cost;wins+=z.win?1:0;}console.log('SIM_EV_GT_0',{trades:sims.length,wins,losses:sims.length-wins,winRate:wins/Math.max(1,sims.length),spent,pnl,roi:pnl/Math.max(.0001,spent)});console.log('SIM_SAMPLE',sims.slice(-12));\n",[152],"e2cfd8c2-160b-4f5d-b2f2-5e488bd9b5dc","bone_batch.ts","f7c05304-a048-11f1-ae06-1607ee4eb77e",7,["D",1787637121397],"const WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30';\nconst LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map(), outcomes=new Map();\nfunction N(s:string|undefined){if(!s||s==='n/a')return NaN;return +s;}\nconst lr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!lr.ok||!lr.body)throw Error('log fetch');const rd=lr.body.getReader(),dec=new TextDecoder();let buf='';\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);\n if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const t={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[3],old:+m[4],twap:+m[5],u:+m[6],d:+m[7],top:+m[8],imb:+m[9]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}}\n if(line.includes('[Event PnL]')&&line.includes('event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/);if(m)outcomes.set(m[1],m[2]);}\n}}\nfor(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((x,y)=>x.ts-y.ts);\nconsole.log('log events',outcomes.size);\n\nlet cp:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<5000;off+=50){const j=await (await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/closed-positions?user=${WAL}&limit=50&offset=${off}&sortBy=TIMESTAMP&sortDirection=DESC`)).json();if(!Array.isArray(j)||!j.length)break;cp.push(...j);if(j.length<50)break;}console.log('closed positions pulled',cp.length);\nconst grouped=new Map();\nfor(const p of cp){if(!p.slug?.startsWith('btc-updown-5m-')||!ticks.has(p.slug))continue;let g=grouped.get(p.conditionId);if(!g){g={conditionId:p.conditionId,slug:p.slug,positions:[]};grouped.set(p.conditionId,g);}g.positions.push(p);}\nconst markets=[...grouped.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,12);\nconsole.log('selected markets',markets.map(x=>x.slug));\nasync function getTrades(cond:string,takerOnly:boolean){let all:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<3000;off+=100){const u=`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${cond}&takerOnly=${takerOnly?'true':'false'}&limit=100&offset=${off}`;const j=await (await fetch(u)).json();if(!Array.isArray(j)||!j.length)break;all.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return all;}\nfunction key(t:any){return [t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,Number(t.size).toFixed(8),Number(t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}\nfunction nearest(slug:string,ts:number,delta=3){const a=ticks.get(slug)||[];let b:any=null,bd=1e9;for(const x of a){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(d({...t,role:takKeys.has(key(t))?'TAKER':'MAKER'}));\n const sums:any={};for(const r of roles){const o=r.outcome;sums[o]??={q:0,c:0,mq:0,tq:0};sums[o].q+=+r.size;sums[o].c+=+r.size*+r.price;sums[o][r.role==='TAKER'?'tq':'mq']+=+r.size;}\n console.log('\\nMARKET',m.slug,'outcome',outcomes.get(m.slug),'allN',all.length,'takN',tak.length,'positions',m.positions.map((p:any)=>({o:p.outcome,q:p.totalBought,avg:p.avgPrice,pnl:p.realizedPnl})),'apiSums',sums);\n for(const t of tak){const x=nearest(m.slug,+t.timestamp),f5=future(m.slug,+t.timestamp,5),f15=future(m.slug,+t.timestamp,15),f30=future(m.slug,+t.timestamp,30);if(!x)continue;const side=t.outcome.toUpperCase();const px=+t.price;const fav=x.u>x.d?'UP':'DOWN';const oldSide=x.old>=0?'UP':'DOWN',twSide=x.twap>=0?'UP':'DOWN';function qmove(f:any){if(!f)return NaN;return side==='UP'?f.u-px:f.d-px;}global.push({slug:m.slug,ts:+t.timestamp,rem:x.rem,side,px,size:+t.size,notional:+t.size*px,u:x.u,d:x.d,old:x.old,twap:x.twap,top:x.top,imb:x.imb,fav,oldSide,twSide,alignFav:side===fav,alignOld:side===oldSide,alignTw:side===twSide,m5:qmove(f5),m15:qmove(f15),m30:qmove(f30),winner:outcomes.get(m.slug),won:side===outcomes.get(m.slug)});}\n}\nfunction agg(z:any[]){const n=z.length,s=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(Number.isFinite(r[k])?r[k]:0),0),cnt=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(r[k]?1:0),0);return{n,notional:s('notional'),alignFav:cnt('alignFav')/n,alignOld:cnt('alignOld')/n,alignTw:cnt('alignTw')/n,won:cnt('won')/n,m5:s('m5')/n,m15:s('m15')/n,m30:s('m30')/n};}\nconsole.log('\\nGLOBAL',agg(global));\nconst prices=global.map(x=>x.px).sort((a,b)=>a-b);const qs=[.1,.25,.5,.75,.9].map(q=>prices[Math.floor(q*(prices.length-1))]);console.log('price quantiles',qs);\nconst bins=[[-Infinity,qs[1]],[qs[1],qs[3]],[qs[3],Infinity]];for(const [lo,hi] of bins){const z=global.filter(x=>x.px>lo&&x.px<=hi);console.log('PRICE_BIN',lo,hi,agg(z));}\nfor(const b of [[240,300],[180,240],[120,180],[60,120],[0,60]]){const z=global.filter(x=>x.rem>b[0]&&x.rem<=b[1]);if(z.length)console.log('REM_BIN',b,agg(z));}\nconsole.log('TAKER_ROWS_SAMPLE',global.slice(-30));",[159],"pulls","branches",1,"forks","envVars",{"_173":59,"_175":59},"connections",{"_173":59,"_174":59},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_41":158,"_31":159,"_29":160,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":161,"_134":146,"_36":194,"_13":148,"_32":33,"_34":163,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_182":195,"_26":196},{"_41":151,"_31":152,"_29":153,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":154,"_134":146,"_36":191,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":156,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_182":192,"_26":193},{"_41":142,"_31":143,"_29":144,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":145,"_134":146,"_36":188,"_13":148,"_32":33,"_34":149,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_182":189,"_26":190},{"_41":139,"_31":27,"_29":30,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":14,"_134":24,"_36":185,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_182":186,"_26":187},{"_41":129,"_31":130,"_29":131,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":133,"_134":24,"_36":181,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":136,"_23":24,"_137":-5,"_182":183,"_26":184},["D",1787637205452],"children",[],[130],["D",1787637283808],[],[27],["D",1787636027917],[],[143],["D",1787637012611],[],[152],["D",1787637121397],[],[159],["D",1787635928982],{"_93":92,"_101":97},{"_93":92,"_94":95,"_96":97,"_18":53,"_98":99,"_100":24},{"_13":82,"_31":83,"_41":40,"_84":42,"_85":-5,"_86":-5,"_87":-5,"_88":-5,"_89":-5,"_90":43,"_91":92},"ctx",{"_75":-5,"_121":234,"_235":236,"_237":238,"_239":24,"_240":24,"_241":24,"_242":146,"_243":-5,"_244":-7,"_245":-7,"_246":59,"_247":24,"_248":24,"_249":-5,"_250":24,"_251":24,"_252":24,"_253":-5},"ENV",{"_205":206,"_207":208,"_209":83,"_210":211,"_212":213,"_214":215,"_216":217,"_218":219,"_220":221,"_222":223,"_224":225,"_226":227,"_228":229,"_230":231,"_232":233},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Diff · v9