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WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30', LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map(), outcomes=new Map();function N(s:any){if(!s||s==='n/a')return NaN;return +s;}\nconst lr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!lr.ok||!lr.body)throw Error('log');const rd=lr.body.getReader(),dec=new TextDecoder();let buf='';while(true){const{value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const 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markets=[...gm.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,12);\nasync function trades(c:string,to:boolean){let z:any[]=[];for(let o=0;o<3000;o+=100){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`)).json();if(!j.length)break;z.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return z;}\nfunction key(t:any){return[t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,(+t.size).toFixed(8),(+t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}\nfunction nearest(slug:string,ts:number){const a=ticks.get(slug)||[];let b:any=null,bd=9e9;for(const x of a){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(d({...x})),D:s.D.map(x=>({...x}))};}\nfunction matchAndAdd(s:State,side:'UP'|'DOWN',q:number,c:number,mode:'FIFO'|'LIFO'|'OPT'){const opp=side==='UP'?s.D:s.U, own=side==='UP'?s.U:s.D;let need=q,mc=0,mq=0;while(need>1e-9&&opp.length){let idx=mode==='FIFO'?0:mode==='LIFO'?opp.length-1:opp.reduce((bi,l,i,a)=>l.c1e-9)own.push({q:need,c});return{mq,oppAvg:mq?mc/mq:NaN,pairCost:mq?c+mc/mq:NaN,pairEdge:mq?1-c-mc/mq:NaN};}\nlet rows:any[]=[];\nfor(const m of markets){const all=await trades(m.conditionId,false),tak=await trades(m.conditionId,true),tk=new Set(tak.map(key));const rr=all.map((t:any)=>({...t,role:tk.has(key(t))?'TAKER':'MAKER'})).sort((a:any,b:any)=>+a.timestamp-+b.timestamp||a.transactionHash.localeCompare(b.transactionHash));const st:any={FIFO:{U:[],D:[]},LIFO:{U:[],D:[]},OPT:{U:[],D:[]}};let qU=0,qD=0;\n for(const t of rr){const side=t.outcome.toUpperCase() as 'UP'|'DOWN',q=+t.size,p=+t.price,c=p+feeUnit(p,t.role),ib=qU-qD,ia=ib+(side==='UP'?q:-q),rebal=Math.abs(ia)x.d?'UP':'DOWN',old=x.old>=0?'UP':'DOWN',tw=x.twap>=0?'UP':'DOWN';rows.push({slug:m.slug,ts:+t.timestamp,rem:x.rem,side,p,size:q,c,notional:p*q,ib,ia,rebal,fav,old,tw,strictDir:side===fav&&side===old&&side===tw,alignFav:side===fav,alignOld:side===old,alignTw:side===tw,pairF:info.FIFO.pairEdge,pairL:info.LIFO.pairEdge,pairO:info.OPT.pairEdge,mqF:info.FIFO.mq,mqL:info.LIFO.mq,mqO:info.OPT.mq,winner:outcomes.get(m.slug),won:side===outcomes.get(m.slug)});}}\n}\nfunction pct(n:number,d:number){return d?n/d:NaN;}function summary(z:any[]){const n=z.length;const q=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(r[k]?1:0),0),s=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(Number.isFinite(r[k])?r[k]:0),0);const pe=z.filter(r=>Number.isFinite(r.pairO)).map(r=>r.pairO).sort((a,b)=>a-b);const spend=z.reduce((a,r)=>a+r.size*r.c,0),rpnl=z.reduce((a,r)=>a+r.size*((r.won?1:0)-r.c),0);return{n,notional:s('notional'),strictDir:pct(q('strictDir'),n),fav:pct(q('alignFav'),n),old:pct(q('alignOld'),n),tw:pct(q('alignTw'),n),rebal:pct(q('rebal'),n),pairPosFIFO:pct(z.filter(r=>r.pairF>0).length,n),pairPosLIFO:pct(z.filter(r=>r.pairL>0).length,n),pairPosOPT:pct(z.filter(r=>r.pairO>0).length,n),won:pct(q('won'),n),pairOmed:pe.length?pe[Math.floor(pe.length/2)]:NaN,standalonePnL:rpnl,standaloneROI:spend?rpnl/spend:NaN};}\nconsole.log('ALL',summary(rows));\nconst prices=rows.map(r=>r.p).sort((a,b)=>a-b),q25=prices[Math.floor(.25*(prices.length-1))],q75=prices[Math.floor(.75*(prices.length-1))];console.log('price q25/q75',q25,q75);\nfor(const [name,z] of [['LOW_Q',rows.filter(r=>r.p<=q25)],['MID',rows.filter(r=>r.p>q25&&r.p<=q75)],['HIGH_Q',rows.filter(r=>r.p>q75)],['NONFAV',rows.filter(r=>!r.alignFav)],['FAV',rows.filter(r=>r.alignFav)],['STRICT_DIR',rows.filter(r=>r.strictDir)],['REBAL',rows.filter(r=>r.rebal)],['PAIR_OPT_POS',rows.filter(r=>r.pairO>0)],['CHEAP_NONFAV',rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav)],['CHEAP_NONFAV_REBAL',rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav&&r.rebal)],['CHEAP_NONFAV_INCREASE',rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav&&!r.rebal)],['HIGH_FAV_REBAL',rows.filter(r=>r.p>.5&&r.alignFav&&r.rebal)],['HIGH_FAV_INCREASE',rows.filter(r=>r.p>.5&&r.alignFav&&!r.rebal)],['STRICT_REBAL',rows.filter(r=>r.strictDir&&r.rebal)],['STRICT_INCREASE',rows.filter(r=>r.strictDir&&!r.rebal)] ] as any)console.log(name,summary(z));\n// Cross-evidence classifications, not mutually exclusive\nconst cross={A_strict_direction:rows.filter(r=>r.strictDir).length,B_rebalance:rows.filter(r=>r.rebal).length,C_opt_pair_positive:rows.filter(r=>r.pairO>0).length,D_cheap_nonfav_noBC:rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav&&!r.rebal&&!(r.pairO>0)).length,none:rows.filter(r=>!r.strictDir&&!r.rebal&&!(r.pairO>0)&&!(r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav)).length};console.log('EVIDENCE_COUNTS',cross,'N',rows.length);\nconsole.log('C_examples',rows.filter(r=>r.pairO>0).sort((a,b)=>b.pairO-a.pairO).slice(0,20).map(r=>({slug:r.slug,rem:r.rem,side:r.side,p:r.p,size:r.size,ib:r.ib,ia:r.ia,rebal:r.rebal,fav:r.fav,old:r.old,tw:r.tw,pairO:r.pairO,mqO:r.mqO})));\nconsole.log('D_examples',rows.filter(r=>r.p<.5&&!r.alignFav&&!r.rebal&&!(r.pairO>0)).slice(0,20).map(r=>({slug:r.slug,rem:r.rem,side:r.side,p:r.p,size:r.size,ib:r.ib,ia:r.ia,fav:r.fav,old:r.old,tw:r.tw,pairO:r.pairO})));\n",[139],"b170f0c8-ce96-4bb2-a1c4-1fe4069e0811","pair_fate.ts","78653e0c-a049-11f1-82f9-1607ee4eb77e",12,["D",1787637507696],1,"const WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30',LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number};const ticks=new Map();function N(s:any){return(!s||s==='n/a')?NaN:+s;}\nconst lr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!lr.ok||!lr.body)throw Error('log');const rd=lr.body.getReader(),dc=new TextDecoder();let buf='';while(true){const{value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;buf+=dc.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);if(!line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-'))continue;const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\]/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[3]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))){const t={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,old:+m[3],twap:+m[4],u:+m[5],d:+m[6]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}}}for(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((a,b)=>a.ts-b.ts);\nlet cp:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<5000;off+=50){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/closed-positions?user=${WAL}&limit=50&offset=${off}&sortBy=TIMESTAMP&sortDirection=DESC`)).json();if(!j.length)break;cp.push(...j);}const gm=new Map();for(const p of cp){if(p.slug?.startsWith('btc-updown-5m-')&&ticks.has(p.slug)&&!gm.has(p.conditionId))gm.set(p.conditionId,{conditionId:p.conditionId,slug:p.slug});}const markets=[...gm.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,12);\nasync function tr(c:string,to:boolean){let z:any[]=[];for(let o=0;o<3000;o+=100){const j=await(await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`)).json();if(!j.length)break;z.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return z;}function key(t:any){return[t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,(+t.size).toFixed(8),(+t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}function near(s:string,ts:number){let b:any=null,bd=1e9;for(const x of ticks.get(s)||[]){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(d+a.timestamp-+b.timestamp||a.transactionHash.localeCompare(b.transactionHash));const lots:L[]=ordered.map((t:any,i:number)=>{const side=t.outcome.toUpperCase(),q=+t.size,p=+t.price,role=ks.has(key(t))?'TAKER':'MAKER',ib=qU-qD,ia=ib+(side==='UP'?q:-q),x=near(m.slug,+t.timestamp);if(side==='UP')qU+=q;else qD+=q;return{id:key(t)+'#'+i,slug:m.slug,side,q,left:q,c:p+fee(p,role),role,p,ts:+t.timestamp,matchQ:0,posQ:0,edgeSum:0,x,rebal:Math.abs(ia)l.side==='UP').sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c),D=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='DOWN').sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c);let i=0,j=0;while(i0){a.posQ+=q;b.posQ+=q;}a.left-=q;b.left-=q;if(a.left<1e-9)i++;if(b.left<1e-9)j++;}\n takLots.push(...lots.filter(l=>l.role==='TAKER'&&l.x));}\nfunction S(z:L[]){const q=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q,0),mq=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.matchQ,0),pq=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.posQ,0),not=z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q*l.p,0);return{lots:z.length,q,notional:not,eventualMatchedPct:mq/q,eventualPositivePairPct:pq/q,avgAssignedEdge:mq?z.reduce((a,l)=>a+l.edgeSum,0)/mq:NaN};}\nconst tagged=takLots.map(l=>{const fav=l.x.u>l.x.d?'UP':'DOWN',old=l.x.old>=0?'UP':'DOWN',tw=l.x.twap>=0?'UP':'DOWN';return{...l,fav,old,tw,nonfav:l.side!==fav,strict:l.side===fav&&l.side===old&&l.side===tw};});\nconsole.log('ALL',S(tagged));console.log('CHEAP_NONFAV',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.p<.5&&l.nonfav)));console.log('CHEAP_NONFAV_NONREBAL',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.p<.5&&l.nonfav&&!l.rebal)));console.log('STRICT_DIR',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.strict)));console.log('HIGH_FAV',S(tagged.filter(l=>l.p>.5&&!l.nonfav)));\nconst d=tagged.filter(l=>l.p<.5&&l.nonfav&&!l.rebal).sort((a,b)=>b.posQ/b.q-a.posQ/a.q);console.log('D_FATE_SAMPLE',d.slice(0,25).map(l=>({slug:l.slug,side:l.side,p:l.p,q:l.q,rebal:l.rebal,fav:l.fav,old:l.old,tw:l.tw,matchedPct:l.matchQ/l.q,posPairPct:l.posQ/l.q,avgEdge:l.matchQ?l.edgeSum/l.matchQ:null})));\n",[147],"2321527f-1fd0-4476-8ecb-0451eb174b6d","main.ts","50e25aca-a046-11f1-8342-1607ee4eb77e",3,["D",1787636027917],"const url='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\nconst events = [\n {slug:'btc-updown-5m-1787632500', start:1787632500, fillTs:[1787632473,1787632489,1787632491,1787632503,1787632560,1787632609,1787632612,1787632653,1787632672,1787632686,1787632696,1787632731]},\n {slug:'btc-updown-5m-1787634600', start:1787634600, fillTs:[1787634619,1787634651,1787634655,1787634670,1787634672,1787634673,1787634684,1787634688,1787634690,1787634714,1787634724,1787634733,1787634744,1787634745,1787634748,1787634753,1787634754,1787634757,1787634763,1787634771,1787634774,1787634786,1787634787,1787634795,1787634796,1787634798,1787634799,1787634801,1787634810,1787634813,1787634817,1787634826,1787634829,1787634831,1787634837,1787634840,1787634846,1787634847,1787634850,1787634855,1787634856,1787634858,1787634864,1787634867,1787634870,1787634871]}\n];\nconst wanted = new Map>();\nfor (const e of events) {\n const s=new Set();\n for (const ts of e.fillTs) {\n const age=ts-e.start;\n for(let d=-2;d<=2;d++) s.add(age+d);\n }\n wanted.set(e.slug,s);\n}\nconst r=await fetch(url,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});\nif(!r.ok||!r.body) throw new Error('fetch '+r.status);\nconst reader=r.body.getReader(), dec=new TextDecoder(); let buf='';\nconst out: Record = Object.fromEntries(events.map(e=>[e.slug,[]]));\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await reader.read(); if(done)break; buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true}); let i; while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);for(const e of events){if(!line.includes(e.slug)||!line.includes('[BSPS_TICK]'))continue;const m=line.match(/age_s=(-?\\d+)/);if(m&&wanted.get(e.slug)!.has(Number(m[1])))out[e.slug].push(line);}}}\nfor(const e of events){\n console.log('\\n###',e.slug,'fills age',e.fillTs.map(x=>x-e.start).join(','));\n for(const line of out[e.slug]) console.log(line);\n}\n",[155],"97a54f80-3969-4cf5-b0fd-50f0594945f7","first_leg_model.ts","83b138cc-a04b-11f1-8a40-1607ee4eb77e",16,["D",1787638254857],"const LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\n\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map(), outcomes=new Map();\nfunction N(s:any){if(!s||s==='n/a')return NaN;return +s;}\nfunction fee(p:number){return .07*p*(1-p);}\nfunction eff(p:number){return p+fee(p);}\n\nconst r=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}}); if(!r.ok||!r.body) throw Error('fetch '+r.status);\nconst rd=r.body.getReader(), dec=new TextDecoder(); let buf='';\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await rd.read(); if(done)break; buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true}); let i;\n while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);\n if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){\n const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);\n if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const t:Tick={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[3],old:+m[4],twap:+m[5],u:+m[6],d:+m[7],top:+m[8],imb:+m[9]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}\n }\n if(line.includes('[Event PnL]')&&line.includes('event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/);if(m)outcomes.set(m[1],m[2] as any);}\n }}\nfor(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((a,b)=>a.ts-b.ts);\nconst slugs=[...outcomes.keys()].filter(s=>ticks.has(s)).sort((a,b)=>+a.split('-').at(-1)!-+b.split('-').at(-1)!);\nconsole.log('events',slugs.length,'first',slugs[0],'last',slugs.at(-1));\n\ntype Cand={slug:string,idx:number,ts:number,rem:number,side:'UP'|'DOWN',cheap:number,cheapEff:number,oppNow:number,oppEffNow:number,currentPairCost:number,currentGap:number,pm:number,oldSide:number,twSide:number,oldMag:number,twMag:number,top:number,imb:number,futurePair:boolean,earliestSec:number,bestEdge:number,bestPairCost:number,bestSec:number,settleWin:boolean,realizedPnlEarliest:number,realizedRoiEarliest:number};\nconst cands:Cand[]=[];\nfor(const s of slugs){const a=ticks.get(s)!;const win=outcomes.get(s)!;\n for(let i=0;i270)continue;\n // sample every ~5 seconds to reduce serial duplication\n if(i>0 && (t.ts-a[i-1].ts)<4 && (Math.floor(t.ts/5)===Math.floor(a[i-1].ts/5)))continue;\n const side:'UP'|'DOWN'=t.u<=t.d?'UP':'DOWN'; const cheap=side==='UP'?t.u:t.d; const opp=side==='UP'?t.d:t.u;\n const c1=eff(cheap), c2now=eff(opp), currentPairCost=c1+c2now;\n // first-leg only: no profitable complete set at current asks\n if(currentPairCost<1)continue;\n let earliestSec=NaN,bestEdge=-Infinity,bestPairCost=Infinity,bestSec=NaN;\n for(let j=i+1;j0)earliestSec=sec;\n }\n const futurePair=Number.isFinite(earliestSec); const settleWin=side===win;\n // realistic fixed policy outcome for label: pair at FIRST positive all-in pair edge; else settle first leg\n let pnl:number,roi:number;\n if(futurePair){let oppP=NaN;for(let j=i+1;jx.futurePair);const arr=(k:(x:Cand)=>number)=>z.map(k).filter(Number.isFinite).sort((a,b)=>a-b);const med=(v:number[])=>v.length?v[Math.floor(v.length/2)]:NaN;const mean=(v:number[])=>v.length?v.reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0)/v.length:NaN;const pnl=z.reduce((a,x)=>a+x.realizedPnlEarliest,0),spent=z.reduce((a,x)=>a+x.cheapEff+(x.futurePair?(1-x.realizedPnlEarliest-x.cheapEff):0),0);return{n,pairRate:pair.length/n,settleWinRate:z.filter(x=>x.settleWin).length/n,medianEarliestSec:med(arr(x=>x.earliestSec)),medianBestEdge:med(arr(x=>x.bestEdge)),meanBestEdge:mean(arr(x=>x.bestEdge)),meanPnlPer1:z.reduce((a,x)=>a+x.realizedPnlEarliest,0)/n,meanROI:mean(arr(x=>x.realizedRoiEarliest)),aggregatePnl:pnl,aggregateROI:spent?pnl/spent:NaN};}\nconsole.log('ALL',summarize(cands));\n\n// descriptive quintiles by cheap price and rem: boundaries come from data, not strategy constants.\nfunction quantiles(vals:number[],n=5){const a=vals.slice().sort((x,y)=>x-y);return Array.from({length:n+1},(_,i)=>a[Math.min(a.length-1,Math.floor(i*(a.length-1)/n))]);}\nconst pq=quantiles(cands.map(x=>x.cheap),5), rq=quantiles(cands.map(x=>x.rem),5), gq=quantiles(cands.map(x=>x.currentGap),5);\nconsole.log('cheap quintiles',pq,'rem quintiles',rq,'gap quintiles',gq);\nfor(let b=0;b<5;b++){const lo=pq[b],hi=pq[b+1],z=cands.filter((x,i)=>x.cheap>=lo&&(b===4?x.cheap<=hi:x.cheapx.rem>=lo&&(b===4?x.rem<=hi:x.remtrainS.has(x.slug)),test=cands.filter(x=>testS.has(x.slug));console.log('split',split,slugs.length-split,'rows',train.length,test.length);\n\n// logistic model for futurePair and ridge model for realized pnl. Features are transformed current-only observables.\nfunction feat(x:Cand){const p=x.cheap;const rem=x.rem/300;const old=x.oldMag/Math.sqrt(Math.max(1,x.rem));const tw=x.twapMag/Math.sqrt(Math.max(1,x.rem));return [Math.log((p+.01)/(1-p+.01)),x.currentGap,rem,old,tw,x.top,x.imb, (x.side==='UP'?1:-1)*x.oldSide, (x.side==='UP'?1:-1)*x.twSide];}\nconst invalid=cands.filter(x=>feat(x).some(v=>!Number.isFinite(v)));console.log('invalidFeatures',invalid.length,invalid.slice(0,3).map(x=>({slug:x.slug,cheap:x.cheap,gap:x.currentGap,old:x.oldMag,tw:x.twapMag,top:x.top,imb:x.imb,feat:feat(x)})));\ntrain=train.filter(x=>feat(x).every(Number.isFinite));test=test.filter(x=>feat(x).every(Number.isFinite));console.log('finite rows',train.length,test.length);\nfunction stdfit(data:Cand[]){const X=data.map(feat),k=X[0].length,mu=Array(k).fill(0),sd=Array(k).fill(0);for(const a of X)for(let j=0;jfeat(x).map((v,j)=>(v-mu[j])/sd[j])};}\nfunction sig(z:number){return z>30?1:z<-30?0:1/(1+Math.exp(-z));}\nfunction fitLog(data:Cand[]){const st=stdfit(data),k=feat(data[0]).length,w=Array(k+1).fill(0),lr=.03,lam=.003;for(let it=0;it<3000;it++){const g=Array(k+1).fill(0);for(const x of data){const z=st.z(x);let s=w[0];for(let j=0;j{const z=st.z(x);let s=w[0];for(let j=0;jnumber){const st=stdfit(data),k=feat(data[0]).length,w=Array(k+1).fill(0),lr=.015,lam=.01;for(let it=0;it<5000;it++){const g=Array(k+1).fill(0);for(const x of data){const z=st.z(x);let yhat=w[0];for(let j=0;j{const z=st.z(x);let y=w[0];for(let j=0;jx.realizedPnlEarliest);\nfunction clsMetrics(data:Cand[]){let bs=0,ll=0;for(const x of data){const p=Math.max(.001,Math.min(.999,lm.xpred(x))),y=x.futurePair?1:0;bs+=(p-y)**2;ll+=-(y*Math.log(p)+(1-y)*Math.log(1-p));}return{brier:bs/data.length,logloss:ll/data.length};}\nfunction regMetrics(data:Cand[]){let mae=0,mse=0;for(const x of data){const e=rm.pred(x)-x.realizedPnlEarliest;mae+=Math.abs(e);mse+=e*e;}return{mae:mae/data.length,rmse:Math.sqrt(mse/data.length)};}\nconsole.log('PAIR_MODEL',clsMetrics(train),clsMetrics(test),'w',lm.w.map(x=>+x.toFixed(4)));\nconsole.log('PNL_MODEL',regMetrics(train),regMetrics(test),'w',rm.w.map(x=>+x.toFixed(4)));\n\n// score deciles on TRAIN establish a data-driven execution threshold: choose contiguous top score deciles with positive lower-ish performance.\nfor(const [name,data] of [['TRAIN',train],['TEST',test]] as const){const scored=data.map(x=>({x,score:rm.pred(x),pp:lm.xpred(x)})).sort((a,b)=>a.score-b.score);for(let d=0;d<10;d++){const lo=Math.floor(d*scored.length/10),hi=Math.floor((d+1)*scored.length/10),z=scored.slice(lo,hi).map(v=>v.x);console.log(name,'PNL_DEC',d+1,'scoreRange',[scored[lo]?.score,scored[Math.max(lo,hi-1)]?.score],summarize(z));}}\n\n// Event-level no-lookahead strategy: derive threshold from TRAIN candidate scores by testing unique score quantiles, at most one entry/event, earliest qualifying candidate.\nconst threshCands=quantiles(train.map(rm.pred),20).slice(1,-1);let best:any=null;\nfunction runStrategy(data:Cand[],thr:number){const by=new Map();for(const x of data){if(!by.has(x.slug))by.set(x.slug,[]);by.get(x.slug)!.push(x);}let trades:Cand[]=[];for(const [s,a] of by){a.sort((x,y)=>x.ts-y.ts);const hit=a.find(x=>rm.pred(x)>=thr);if(hit)trades.push(hit);}return summarize(trades);}\nfor(const th of threshCands){const sm=runStrategy(train,th);if(sm.n>=Math.max(10,Math.floor(split*.1))&&(!best||sm.aggregatePnl>best.sm.aggregatePnl))best={th,sm};}\nconsole.log('SELECTED_THRESHOLD_FROM_TRAIN',best);\nconsole.log('OOS_EVENT_STRATEGY',runStrategy(test,best.th));\n\n// Also show a non-ML empirical policy selected only from TRAIN: cheap-price quintile x rem-quintile cells, keep cells with positive train aggregate ROI and >=20 observations.\nfunction binIndex(v:number,q:number[]){for(let i=0;i=q[i]&&(i===q.length-2?v<=q[i+1]:vx.cheap),5),trq=quantiles(train.map(x=>x.rem),5);const good=new Set();\nfor(let i=0;i<5;i++)for(let j=0;j<5;j++){const z=train.filter(x=>binIndex(x.cheap,tpq)===i&&binIndex(x.rem,trq)===j);if(z.length>=20){const sm=summarize(z);if(sm.aggregateROI>0)good.add(`${i},${j}`);console.log('TRAIN_CELL',i,j,sm);}}\nfunction runCell(data:Cand[]){const by=new Map();for(const x of data){if(!by.has(x.slug))by.set(x.slug,[]);by.get(x.slug)!.push(x);}const z:Cand[]=[];for(const a of by.values()){a.sort((x,y)=>x.ts-y.ts);const h=a.find(x=>good.has(`${binIndex(x.cheap,tpq)},${binIndex(x.rem,trq)}`));if(h)z.push(h);}return summarize(z);}\nconsole.log('GOOD_CELLS', [...good]);console.log('CELL_OOS',runCell(test));\n",[162],"6e9a1575-cda3-470b-bc93-e4a76f2c7f4a","fair_model.ts","d6c06d1a-a048-11f1-9851-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1787637012611],"const URL='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\n\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map();\nconst outcomes=new Map();\nconst eventTs=new Map();\n\nfunction num(s:string|undefined){ if(!s||s==='n/a') return NaN; return Number(s); }\nconst r=await fetch(URL,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}}); if(!r.ok||!r.body) throw Error('fetch '+r.status);\nconst rd=r.body.getReader(), dec=new TextDecoder(); let buf='';\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await rd.read(); if(done)break; buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true}); let i;\n while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);\n if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){\n const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-(\\d+)).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);\n if(m){const old=num(m[5]),twap=num(m[6]); if(Number.isFinite(old)&&Number.isFinite(twap)){\n const t:Tick={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[4],old,twap:+m[6],u:+m[7],d:+m[8],top:+m[9],imb:+m[10]};\n if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]); ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t); eventTs.set(t.slug,+m[3]);\n }}\n }\n if(line.includes('[Event PnL]')&&line.includes('event=btc-updown-5m-')){\n const m=line.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-(\\d+)).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/); if(m){outcomes.set(m[1],m[3]==='UP'?1:0);eventTs.set(m[1],+m[2]);}\n }\n }}\nconst slugs=[...outcomes.keys()].filter(s=>ticks.has(s)).sort((a,b)=>(eventTs.get(a)!-eventTs.get(b)!));\nconsole.log('events',slugs.length,'first',slugs[0],'last',slugs.at(-1));\nconst remTargets=[240,180,120,90,60,30];\nfunction nearest(arr:Tick[],target:number){let best=arr[0],bd=1e9;for(const t of arr){const d=Math.abs(t.rem-target);if(dtrainSlugs.has(r.slug)), test=rows.filter(r=>testSlugs.has(r.slug));\nconsole.log('trainEvents',split,'testEvents',slugs.length-split,'trainRows',train.length,'testRows',test.length);\n\nfunction stats(data:Row[],idx:number[]){const mu=idx.map(j=>data.reduce((a,r)=>a+r.x[j],0)/data.length);const sd=idx.map((j,k)=>Math.sqrt(data.reduce((a,r)=>a+(r.x[j]-mu[k])**2,0)/data.length)||1);return{mu,sd};}\nfunction sig(z:number){if(z>30)return 1;if(z<-30)return 0;return 1/(1+Math.exp(-z));}\nfunction fit(data:Row[],idx:number[]){const st=stats(data,idx);let w=new Array(idx.length+1).fill(0);const lr=.05,lam=.002;\n for(let it=0;it<3500;it++){let g=new Array(w.length).fill(0);for(const r of data){let z=w[0];for(let k=0;k{let z=w[0];for(let k=0;knumber){let br=0,ll=0,acc=0;const ps:{p:number,y:number}[]=[];for(const r of data){const p=clamp(pred(r));br+=(p-r.y)**2;ll+=-(r.y*Math.log(p)+(1-r.y)*Math.log(1-p));acc+=((p>=.5?1:0)===r.y)?1:0;ps.push({p,y:r.y});} // AUC rank\n ps.sort((a,b)=>a.p-b.p);let pos=ps.reduce((a,z)=>a+z.y,0),neg=ps.length-pos,rankSum=0;for(let i=0;ir.pm),'test',metrics(test,r=>r.pm));continue;}const m=fit(train,[...idx]);const mt=metrics(test,m.pred);console.log(name,'w',m.w.map((x:number)=>+x.toFixed(4)),'train',metrics(train,m.pred),'test',mt);if(!best||mt.loglossMath.abs(r.rem-rt)<=3);if(!z.length)continue;const a=metrics(z,r=>r.pm),b=metrics(z,best.m.pred);console.log('REM',rt,'n',z.length,'market',a,'best',b);}\n\n// Natural taker-EV simulation on TEST: at most one new trade per event, scan from rem<=240 to >=30, first |edge| after taker fee > 0.\n// fee/share for crypto: 0.07*p*(1-p); buy cost uses ask + fee/share.\nconst bySlug=new Map();for(const s of slugs.slice(split)){bySlug.set(s,ticks.get(s)!.slice().sort((a,b)=>b.rem-a.rem));}\nfunction rowFromTick(t:Tick):Row{const f=feat(t);return{slug:t.slug,y:outcomes.get(t.slug)!,x:f.x,pm:f.pm,rem:t.rem,uask:t.u,dask:t.d};}\nfunction fee(p:number){return .07*p*(1-p);}\nconst sims:any[]=[];\nfor(const [s,arr] of bySlug){let chosen:any=null;for(const t of arr){if(t.rem>240||t.rem<30)continue;const rr=rowFromTick(t),pf=best.m.pred(rr);const upCost=t.u+fee(t.u),dnCost=t.d+fee(t.d);const evU=pf-upCost,evD=(1-pf)-dnCost;if(evU>0||evD>0){const side=evU>=evD?'UP':'DOWN',ev=Math.max(evU,evD),px=side==='UP'?t.u:t.d,cost=side==='UP'?upCost:dnCost;chosen={slug:s,y:rr.y,side,rem:t.rem,pfair:pf,pm:rr.pm,px,cost,ev,win:(side==='UP'?rr.y===1:rr.y===0)};break;}}\n if(chosen)sims.push(chosen);\n}\nlet pnl=0,spent=0,wins=0;for(const z of sims){spent+=z.cost;pnl+=(z.win?1:0)-z.cost;wins+=z.win?1:0;}console.log('SIM_EV_GT_0',{trades:sims.length,wins,losses:sims.length-wins,winRate:wins/Math.max(1,sims.length),spent,pnl,roi:pnl/Math.max(.0001,spent)});console.log('SIM_SAMPLE',sims.slice(-12));\n",[169],"e2cfd8c2-160b-4f5d-b2f2-5e488bd9b5dc","bone_batch.ts","f7c05304-a048-11f1-ae06-1607ee4eb77e",7,["D",1787637121397],"const WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30';\nconst LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,old:number,twap:number,u:number,d:number,top:number,imb:number};\nconst ticks=new Map(), outcomes=new Map();\nfunction N(s:string|undefined){if(!s||s==='n/a')return NaN;return +s;}\nconst lr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!lr.ok||!lr.body)throw Error('log fetch');const rd=lr.body.getReader(),dec=new TextDecoder();let buf='';\nwhile(true){const {value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;buf+=dec.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=buf.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const line=buf.slice(0,i);buf=buf.slice(i+1);\n if(line.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\].*?top10w=([+\\-0-9.]+).*?imb_delta=([+\\-0-9.]+)/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const t={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[3],old:+m[4],twap:+m[5],u:+m[6],d:+m[7],top:+m[8],imb:+m[9]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}}\n if(line.includes('[Event PnL]')&&line.includes('event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=line.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/);if(m)outcomes.set(m[1],m[2]);}\n}}\nfor(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((x,y)=>x.ts-y.ts);\nconsole.log('log events',outcomes.size);\n\nlet cp:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<5000;off+=50){const j=await (await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/closed-positions?user=${WAL}&limit=50&offset=${off}&sortBy=TIMESTAMP&sortDirection=DESC`)).json();if(!Array.isArray(j)||!j.length)break;cp.push(...j);if(j.length<50)break;}console.log('closed positions pulled',cp.length);\nconst grouped=new Map();\nfor(const p of cp){if(!p.slug?.startsWith('btc-updown-5m-')||!ticks.has(p.slug))continue;let g=grouped.get(p.conditionId);if(!g){g={conditionId:p.conditionId,slug:p.slug,positions:[]};grouped.set(p.conditionId,g);}g.positions.push(p);}\nconst markets=[...grouped.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,12);\nconsole.log('selected markets',markets.map(x=>x.slug));\nasync function getTrades(cond:string,takerOnly:boolean){let all:any[]=[];for(let off=0;off<3000;off+=100){const u=`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${cond}&takerOnly=${takerOnly?'true':'false'}&limit=100&offset=${off}`;const j=await (await fetch(u)).json();if(!Array.isArray(j)||!j.length)break;all.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return all;}\nfunction key(t:any){return [t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,Number(t.size).toFixed(8),Number(t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}\nfunction nearest(slug:string,ts:number,delta=3){const a=ticks.get(slug)||[];let b:any=null,bd=1e9;for(const x of a){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(d({...t,role:takKeys.has(key(t))?'TAKER':'MAKER'}));\n const sums:any={};for(const r of roles){const o=r.outcome;sums[o]??={q:0,c:0,mq:0,tq:0};sums[o].q+=+r.size;sums[o].c+=+r.size*+r.price;sums[o][r.role==='TAKER'?'tq':'mq']+=+r.size;}\n console.log('\\nMARKET',m.slug,'outcome',outcomes.get(m.slug),'allN',all.length,'takN',tak.length,'positions',m.positions.map((p:any)=>({o:p.outcome,q:p.totalBought,avg:p.avgPrice,pnl:p.realizedPnl})),'apiSums',sums);\n for(const t of tak){const x=nearest(m.slug,+t.timestamp),f5=future(m.slug,+t.timestamp,5),f15=future(m.slug,+t.timestamp,15),f30=future(m.slug,+t.timestamp,30);if(!x)continue;const side=t.outcome.toUpperCase();const px=+t.price;const fav=x.u>x.d?'UP':'DOWN';const oldSide=x.old>=0?'UP':'DOWN',twSide=x.twap>=0?'UP':'DOWN';function qmove(f:any){if(!f)return NaN;return side==='UP'?f.u-px:f.d-px;}global.push({slug:m.slug,ts:+t.timestamp,rem:x.rem,side,px,size:+t.size,notional:+t.size*px,u:x.u,d:x.d,old:x.old,twap:x.twap,top:x.top,imb:x.imb,fav,oldSide,twSide,alignFav:side===fav,alignOld:side===oldSide,alignTw:side===twSide,m5:qmove(f5),m15:qmove(f15),m30:qmove(f30),winner:outcomes.get(m.slug),won:side===outcomes.get(m.slug)});}\n}\nfunction agg(z:any[]){const n=z.length,s=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(Number.isFinite(r[k])?r[k]:0),0),cnt=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(r[k]?1:0),0);return{n,notional:s('notional'),alignFav:cnt('alignFav')/n,alignOld:cnt('alignOld')/n,alignTw:cnt('alignTw')/n,won:cnt('won')/n,m5:s('m5')/n,m15:s('m15')/n,m30:s('m30')/n};}\nconsole.log('\\nGLOBAL',agg(global));\nconst prices=global.map(x=>x.px).sort((a,b)=>a-b);const qs=[.1,.25,.5,.75,.9].map(q=>prices[Math.floor(q*(prices.length-1))]);console.log('price quantiles',qs);\nconst bins=[[-Infinity,qs[1]],[qs[1],qs[3]],[qs[3],Infinity]];for(const [lo,hi] of bins){const z=global.filter(x=>x.px>lo&&x.px<=hi);console.log('PRICE_BIN',lo,hi,agg(z));}\nfor(const b of [[240,300],[180,240],[120,180],[60,120],[0,60]]){const z=global.filter(x=>x.rem>b[0]&&x.rem<=b[1]);if(z.length)console.log('REM_BIN',b,agg(z));}\nconsole.log('TAKER_ROWS_SAMPLE',global.slice(-30));",[176],"pulls","branches","forks","envVars",{"_189":59,"_191":59},"connections",{"_189":59,"_190":59},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_41":175,"_31":176,"_29":177,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":178,"_133":134,"_36":218,"_13":143,"_32":33,"_34":180,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":219,"_26":220},{"_41":168,"_31":169,"_29":170,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":171,"_133":134,"_36":215,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":173,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":216,"_26":217},{"_41":161,"_31":162,"_29":163,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":164,"_133":134,"_36":212,"_13":157,"_32":33,"_34":166,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":213,"_26":214},{"_41":154,"_31":155,"_29":156,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":157,"_133":134,"_36":209,"_13":143,"_32":33,"_34":159,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":210,"_26":211},{"_41":146,"_31":147,"_29":148,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":149,"_133":24,"_36":206,"_13":151,"_32":33,"_34":152,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":207,"_26":208},{"_41":138,"_31":139,"_29":140,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":141,"_133":24,"_36":203,"_13":143,"_32":33,"_34":144,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":204,"_26":205},{"_41":131,"_31":27,"_29":30,"_132":-5,"_39":40,"_38":14,"_133":134,"_36":199,"_13":59,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_23":24,"_136":-5,"_200":201,"_26":202},["D",1787638278393],"children",[],[27],["D",1787637381665],[],[139],["D",1787637507696],[],[147],["D",1787636027917],[],[155],["D",1787638254857],[],[162],["D",1787637012611],[],[169],["D",1787637121397],[],[176],["D",1787635928982],{"_93":92,"_101":97},{"_93":92,"_94":95,"_96":97,"_18":53,"_98":99,"_100":24},{"_13":82,"_31":83,"_41":40,"_84":42,"_85":-5,"_86":-5,"_87":-5,"_88":-5,"_89":-5,"_90":43,"_91":92},"ctx",{"_75":-5,"_121":258,"_259":260,"_261":262,"_263":24,"_264":24,"_265":24,"_266":134,"_267":-5,"_268":-7,"_269":-7,"_270":59,"_271":24,"_272":24,"_273":-5,"_274":24,"_275":24,"_276":24,"_277":-5},"ENV",{"_229":230,"_231":232,"_233":83,"_234":235,"_236":237,"_238":239,"_240":241,"_242":243,"_244":245,"_246":247,"_248":249,"_250":251,"_252":253,"_254":255,"_256":257},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Diff · v17