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Reads Polymarket's PUBLIC data API (global, on-chain).\n// The public leaderboard ranks by raw PnL, which just surfaces the biggest\n// bankrolls. Joaquin's criteria = low risk + strong win/loss. First cut here:\n// efficiency = PnL per dollar of volume (return on turnover), with a minimum\n// volume floor so a tiny lucky sample can't top the board. This is a proxy,\n// not the final metric; per-trade win/loss, drawdown, and an out-of-sample\n// split come next from the positions/activity reconstruction.\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\ntype Row = {\n rank: string;\n proxyWallet: string;\n userName: string;\n pnl: number;\n vol: number;\n};\n\nasync function leaderboard(\n category: string,\n pages = 2,\n timePeriod = \"ALL\",\n): Promise {\n const out: Row[] = [];\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const url =\n `${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${category}&timePeriod=${timePeriod}` +\n `&orderBy=PNL&limit=50&offset=${p * 50}`;\n const r = await fetch(url);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Row[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n out.push(...rows);\n }\n return out;\n}\n\n// return-on-turnover as a first skill/efficiency proxy\nfunction eff(r: Row): number {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\n\nfunction fmtMoney(n: number): string {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e9) return `$${(n / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`;\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport async function analyze(category: string, minVol = 250_000) {\n const rows = await leaderboard(category);\n const byPnl = [...rows].sort((a, b) => b.pnl - a.pnl);\n const eligible = rows.filter((r) => r.vol >= minVol && r.pnl > 0);\n const byEff = [...eligible].sort((a, b) => eff(b) - eff(a));\n return { category, count: rows.length, byPnl, byEff };\n}\n\nfunction line(r: Row): string {\n return `${(r.userName || r.proxyWallet.slice(0, 8)).padEnd(16)} ` +\n `pnl=${fmtMoney(r.pnl).padStart(8)} vol=${fmtMoney(r.vol).padStart(8)} ` +\n `eff=${(eff(r) * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;\n}\n\nexport default async function () {\n for (const cat of [\"OVERALL\", \"POLITICS\"]) {\n const { count, byPnl, byEff } = await analyze(cat);\n console.log(`\\n===== ${cat} (${count} wallets pulled) =====`);\n console.log(`-- TOP 8 by RAW PnL (what the public board shows) --`);\n for (const r of byPnl.slice(0, 8)) console.log(\" \" + line(r));\n console.log(`-- TOP 8 by EFFICIENCY (PnL per $ traded, vol>=$250K) --`);\n for (const r of byEff.slice(0, 8)) console.log(\" \" + line(r));\n }\n}\n","// Smart-money signal engine — module 1: re-rank traders by skill, not size.\n// Detect-only. Reads Polymarket's PUBLIC data API (global, on-chain).\n// The public leaderboard ranks by raw PnL, which just surfaces the biggest\n// bankrolls. Joaquin's criteria = low risk + strong win/loss. First cut here:\n// efficiency = PnL per dollar of volume (return on turnover), with a minimum\n// volume floor so a tiny lucky sample can't top the board. This is a proxy,\n// not the final metric; per-trade win/loss, drawdown, and an out-of-sample\n// split come next from the positions/activity reconstruction.\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\ntype Row = {\n rank: string;\n proxyWallet: string;\n userName: string;\n pnl: number;\n vol: number;\n};\n\nasync function leaderboard(\n category: string,\n pages = 2,\n timePeriod = \"ALL\",\n): Promise {\n const out: Row[] = [];\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const url =\n `${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${category}&timePeriod=${timePeriod}` +\n `&orderBy=PNL&limit=50&offset=${p * 50}`;\n const r = await fetch(url);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Row[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n out.push(...rows);\n }\n return out;\n}\n\n// return-on-turnover as a first skill/efficiency proxy\nfunction eff(r: Row): number {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\n\nfunction fmtMoney(n: number): string {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e9) return `$${(n / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`;\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport async function analyze(category: string, minVol = 250_000) {\n const rows = await leaderboard(category);\n const byPnl = [...rows].sort((a, b) => b.pnl - a.pnl);\n const eligible = rows.filter((r) => r.vol >= minVol && r.pnl > 0);\n const byEff = [...eligible].sort((a, b) => eff(b) - eff(a));\n return { category, count: rows.length, byPnl, byEff };\n}\n\nfunction tag(r: Row): string {\n return `${r.userName || r.proxyWallet.slice(0, 8)} | ` +\n `pnl=${fmtMoney(r.pnl)} vol=${fmtMoney(r.vol)} eff=${(eff(r) * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;\n}\n\nexport default async function () {\n const result: Record = {};\n for (const cat of [\"OVERALL\", \"POLITICS\"]) {\n const { count, byPnl, byEff } = await analyze(cat);\n result[cat] = {\n pulled: count,\n byPnl: byPnl.slice(0, 8).map(tag),\n byEff: byEff.slice(0, 8).map(tag),\n };\n }\n return result;\n}\n","createdAt",["D",1789597984431],"branchVersion","branchId","f1c2802b-7a05-402a-8e59-0a360e509b53","id","7b98160e-759a-451e-ac63-bac16ce91a02","predmarket-monitor",["D",1789595019450],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Live Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage monitor (detect-only)","imageUrl","5a6bd924-f7ef-46ed-95a2-11ef633bd193","pinnedFileId","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-adfd5fd204b2","pinPreview",true,"pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","01a0ac28-941c-777f-a124-9765c1807b9c","tursoName","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02","tursoHostname","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02-val-town.aws-us-east-2.turso.io","tursoMeasuredAt",["D",1789596070409],"pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_100":99,"_108":104},"org",{"_100":99,"_101":102,"_103":104,"_18":55,"_105":106,"_107":25},"branch",{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":45,"_98":99},"isOwned",60,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","joaquinrubio","handle","displayName","Joaquin Rubio","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKu9e2FTAA0T_eao8qJSdToUv1ioGcVQUV0-zlGd4zBo0YpRA=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":246,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":247,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":248,"_84":249,"_86":250,"_88":25},"tree",[209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217],"files",[209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217],"counts",{"_199":63,"_200":144,"_201":63,"_202":203,"_204":205},"contents",[131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_43":193,"_32":194,"_30":195,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":144,"_145":59,"_38":196,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":197,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":198},{"_43":185,"_32":186,"_30":187,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":188,"_145":59,"_38":189,"_13":63,"_33":190,"_35":191,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":192},{"_43":179,"_32":180,"_30":181,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":144,"_145":59,"_38":182,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":183,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":184},{"_43":173,"_32":174,"_30":175,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":144,"_145":59,"_38":176,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":177,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":178},{"_43":166,"_32":167,"_30":168,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":169,"_145":59,"_38":170,"_13":63,"_33":34,"_35":171,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":172},{"_43":159,"_32":160,"_30":57,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":161,"_145":59,"_38":162,"_13":144,"_33":163,"_35":164,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":165},{"_43":153,"_32":154,"_30":155,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":144,"_145":59,"_38":156,"_13":63,"_33":34,"_35":157,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":158},{"_43":150,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_145":25,"_38":151,"_13":144,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":152},{"_43":140,"_32":141,"_30":142,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":144,"_145":59,"_38":146,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":147,"_24":25,"_148":-5,"_27":149},"4b37291a-f047-460e-9713-84fb7c2c5057","style.css","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-b5799b58f170","parentId",1,"latest",["D",1789595019450],"/* CSS files add styling rules to your content */\n\nbody {\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n margin: 2em;\n}\n\nh1 {\n font-style: italic;\n color: #373fff;\n}","label",[141],"3c6b7281-996a-437b-9999-aeba457da4d0",["D",1789597984431],[28],"053a1954-ce24-412f-a90b-5f8fc194f0d2","script.js","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-b3202819cddd",["D",1789595019450],"/* If you're feeling fancy you can add interactivity\n to your site with Javascript.\n Note: TypeScript won't work in this file. */\n\n// prints \"hi\" in the browser's dev tools console\nconsole.log(\"hi\");",[154],"e9be5703-5d68-41ca-ac63-2020a3413468","main.tsx",3,["D",1789595133283],"http","import { compute, renderDashboard } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Live dashboard. Recomputes fresh on each view (the page auto-refreshes),\n// so what you see is always current. Detect-only: reads public prices only.\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n try {\n const data = await compute(3);\n return new Response(renderDashboard(data, 60), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n } catch (e) {\n return new Response(`

monitor error: ${String(e)}

`, {\n status: 500,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n }\n}\n",[160],"7c479c6c-2ac5-49b5-9a73-7f27336a3447","lib.ts","e740e4c2-b217-11f1-aacd-1607ee4eb77e",2,["D",1789595115886],"// lib.ts — shared logic for the live prediction-market monitor (detect-only).\n// Fetches public Kalshi + Polymarket data, runs fee-aware detection and a\n// predicate/subject/year-aware cross-venue matcher, and renders the dashboard.\n// No account, no keys, no orders. Reads public prices only.\n\nconst STOP = new Set(\n \"a an the of to in on for and or is are be will who what which when where by at as this that it who's whos then do does did have has had not no s\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\n// Generic words shared across many markets — NOT distinctive. Includes role\n// words (prime minister, chancellor, ceo, ...) so \"next Prime Minister of X\"\n// only matches on the country/person, never on the shared role.\nconst GENERIC = new Set(\n \"democratic democrat republican gop presidential president vice vp nomination nominee nominated election elect electoral senate senator house congress governor gubernatorial mayor mayoral party primary race win wins winner won run runs running candidate candidacy next control chamber seat margin victory popular vote general ticket secretary attorney prime minister chancellor premier king queen pope ceo chairman chair leader head monarch state states us united 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 before after during term season game match team cup league\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\nconst WIN = new Set([\"win\", \"wins\", \"winner\", \"won\"]);\nconst RUN = new Set([\"run\", \"runs\", \"running\", \"candidate\", \"candidacy\", \"enter\", \"declare\", \"announce\", \"launch\"]);\nconst RETIRE = new Set([\"retire\", \"retires\", \"retirement\"]);\n// If a Polymarket \"will X WIN\" question is matched to Kalshi, the Kalshi side\n// must be a selection market (contain one of these), else it's a different bet.\nconst SELECTION = new Set([\"nominee\", \"nominated\", \"nomination\", \"winner\", \"win\", \"wins\", \"won\", \"election\", \"elected\"]);\n\nconst KALSHI_EVENTS = \"https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?limit=200&status=open&with_nested_markets=true\";\n\nfunction fnum(x: unknown): number {\n const n = parseFloat(String(x));\n return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : 0;\n}\nfunction fee(p: number): number {\n return p > 0 && p < 1 ? 0.07 * p * (1 - p) : 0;\n}\nfunction tok(text: string): string[] {\n return (text || \"\").toLowerCase().match(/[a-z0-9]+/g)?.filter((w) => !STOP.has(w) && w.length >= 2) ?? [];\n}\nfunction subjects(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => !GENERIC.has(w) && w.length >= 3 && !/^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction years(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => /^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction action(toks: string[]): string {\n const s = new Set(toks);\n const has = (g: Set) => [...g].some((w) => s.has(w));\n if (has(RETIRE)) return \"RETIRE\";\n if (has(WIN) && !has(RUN)) return \"WIN\";\n if (has(RUN) && !has(WIN)) return \"RUN\";\n return \"UNKNOWN\";\n}\nfunction inter(a: Set, b: Set): number {\n let n = 0;\n for (const x of a) if (b.has(x)) n++;\n return n;\n}\nfunction overlap(a: string[], b: string[]): number {\n const A = new Set(a), B = new Set(b);\n const m = Math.min(A.size, B.size);\n return m ? inter(A, B) / m : 0;\n}\n\nasync function getJson(url: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(url, { headers: { \"User-Agent\": \"predmarket-monitor/1.0\" } });\n if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`${url} -> ${r.status}`);\n return r.json();\n}\n\nexport interface KBinary {\n text: string; tok: string[]; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string;\n yes_ask: number; no_ask: number; vol: number;\n}\nexport interface NetLock { title: string; n: number; lock_net: number; vol: number; }\nexport interface PolyMkt { q: string; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string; tok: string[]; yes: number; no: number; }\nexport interface Lead { q: string; k: string; score: number; net: number; side: string; }\n\nasync function fetchKalshi(pages: number): Promise<{ binaries: KBinary[]; netLocks: NetLock[] }> {\n const binaries: KBinary[] = [];\n const netLocks: NetLock[] = [];\n let cursor: string | undefined;\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const data = await getJson(KALSHI_EVENTS + (cursor ? \"&cursor=\" + cursor : \"\"));\n for (const ev of data.events ?? []) {\n const title: string = ev.title ?? \"\";\n const me = Boolean(ev.mutually_exclusive);\n const outs: { ya: number; na: number }[] = [];\n for (const m of ev.markets ?? []) {\n const ya = fnum(m.yes_ask_dollars), na = fnum(m.no_ask_dollars), mv = fnum(m.volume_fp);\n if (me && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) outs.push({ ya, na });\n if (mv > 0 && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) {\n const sub = m.yes_sub_title || m.subtitle || \"\";\n const text = (title + \" \" + sub).trim();\n const t = tok(text);\n binaries.push({ text, tok: t, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), yes_ask: ya, no_ask: na, vol: mv });\n }\n }\n if (me && outs.length >= 2) {\n const n = outs.length;\n const lockGross = (n - 1) - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + o.na, 0);\n const lockNet = lockGross - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + fee(o.na), 0);\n if (lockNet > 0) netLocks.push({ title, n, lock_net: lockNet, vol: ev.markets?.reduce((s: number, m: any) => s + fnum(m.volume_fp), 0) ?? 0 });\n }\n }\n cursor = data.cursor;\n if (!cursor) break;\n }\n netLocks.sort((a, b) => b.lock_net - a.lock_net);\n return { binaries, netLocks };\n}\n\nasync function fetchPoly(): Promise {\n const url = \"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=250&active=true&closed=false&order=volumeNum&ascending=false\";\n const rows = await getJson(url);\n const list = Array.isArray(rows) ? rows : (rows.data ?? []);\n const out: PolyMkt[] = [];\n for (const m of list) {\n let outs: string[], prices: number[];\n try { outs = JSON.parse(m.outcomes ?? \"[]\"); prices = (JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices ?? \"[]\") as string[]).map(Number); }\n catch { continue; }\n const low = outs.map((o) => String(o).toLowerCase());\n if (low.includes(\"yes\") && low.includes(\"no\") && prices.length === outs.length) {\n const q = m.question ?? \"\";\n const t = tok(q);\n out.push({ q, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), tok: t, yes: prices[low.indexOf(\"yes\")], no: prices[low.indexOf(\"no\")] });\n }\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction crossMatch(binaries: KBinary[], poly: PolyMkt[]): Lead[] {\n const index = new Map();\n for (const k of binaries) for (const s of k.subj) (index.get(s) ?? index.set(s, []).get(s)!).push(k);\n const leads: Lead[] = [];\n for (const p of poly) {\n if (p.subj.size < 2) continue;\n const seen = new Set();\n const cands: KBinary[] = [];\n for (const s of p.subj) for (const k of index.get(s) ?? []) if (!seen.has(k)) { seen.add(k); cands.push(k); }\n let best: KBinary | null = null, bestScore = 0;\n for (const k of cands) {\n if (inter(p.subj, k.subj) < 2) continue; // >=2 shared distinctive words\n if ([\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(p.act) && [\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(k.act) && p.act !== k.act) continue;\n if (p.yr.size && k.yr.size && inter(p.yr, k.yr) === 0) continue; // year conflict\n if (p.act === \"WIN\" && !k.tok.some((w) => SELECTION.has(w))) continue; // WIN must match a selection market\n const sc = overlap(p.tok, k.tok);\n if (sc > bestScore) { best = k; bestScore = sc; }\n }\n if (best && bestScore >= 0.5) {\n const netA = 1 - (best.yes_ask + p.no) - fee(best.yes_ask);\n const netB = 1 - (p.yes + best.no_ask) - fee(best.no_ask);\n const [net, side] = netA >= netB ? [netA, \"Kalshi YES + Poly NO\"] : [netB, \"Poly YES + Kalshi NO\"];\n leads.push({ q: p.q, k: best.text, score: bestScore, net, side });\n }\n }\n return leads.sort((a, b) => b.net - a.net);\n}\n\nexport interface MonitorData {\n stamp: string; kalshiCount: number; polyCount: number; netLocks: NetLock[]; leads: Lead[];\n}\n\nexport async function compute(pages = 4): Promise {\n const [{ binaries, netLocks }, poly] = await Promise.all([fetchKalshi(pages), fetchPoly()]);\n const leads = crossMatch(binaries, poly);\n return {\n stamp: new Date().toISOString().replace(\"T\", \" \").slice(0, 19) + \" UTC\",\n kalshiCount: binaries.length, polyCount: poly.length, netLocks, leads,\n };\n}\n\n// Leads worth an email alert: net edge above threshold. Conservative to avoid spam.\nexport function strongLeads(d: MonitorData, minNet = 0.03): Lead[] {\n return d.leads.filter((l) => l.net >= minNet);\n}\n\nconst esc = (s: string) => String(s).replace(/[&<>\"]/g, (c) => ({ \"&\": \"&\", \"<\": \"<\", \">\": \">\", '\"': \""\" }[c]!));\nconst c = (x: number) => (x >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + (x * 100).toFixed(1) + \"c\";\n\nexport function renderDashboard(d: MonitorData, refresh = 60): string {\n const posLeads = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const tiles = [\n [d.kalshiCount, \"Kalshi markets\"], [d.polyCount, \"Polymarket markets\"],\n [d.leads.length, \"cross-venue matches\"], [posLeads.length, \"net-positive leads\"],\n ].map(([n, l]) => `

${n}

${l}

`).join(\"\");\n\n const leadRows = d.leads.slice(0, 25).map((l) => {\n const cls = l.net > 0 ? \"pos\" : \"neg\";\n const pill = l.net > 0 ? 'lead' : \"\";\n return `${esc(l.q.slice(0, 62))}
${esc(l.k.slice(0, 62))}` +\n `${l.score.toFixed(2)}${c(l.net)}${esc(l.side)}${pill}`;\n }).join(\"\");\n const leadsHtml = d.leads.length\n ? `${leadRows}

Matched pair (Polymarket / Kalshi)	Match	Net edge	Construction

`\n : '

No confident cross-venue matches this cycle.

';\n\n const locksHtml = d.netLocks.length\n ? `${d.netLocks.slice(0, 10).map((m) => ``).join(\"\")}

Event	Outcomes	Net edge
${esc(m.title.slice(0, 60))}	${m.n}	${c(m.lock_net)}

`\n : '

No single-venue lock clears fees this cycle. Normal and expected.

';\n\n return `\n\n\nLive Prediction Market Monitor

Live Prediction Market Monitor

Detect-only, hosted on Val Town. Auto-refreshing every ${refresh}s. Last updated ${esc(d.stamp)}.

${tiles}

Cross-venue leads (Kalshi vs Polymarket)

Same-bet matches with a positive net-of-fees edge. UNVERIFIED leads: confirm identical resolution + date, use executable order-book prices, and check you can trade the Polymarket side as a US resident before trusting any of these.

\n${leadsHtml}

Single-venue locks (Kalshi, fee-aware)

Mutually-exclusive events whose sell-side edge survives estimated fees.

\n${locksHtml}

Live public-data monitor. It only reads; it never trades. Cross-venue edges use indicative Polymarket prices, not executable order-book asks.

`;\n}\n",[167],"6291d64b-3984-4a40-b237-f0e762ebdd04","index.html","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-aa3cf4df43c1",["D",1789595019450],"\n\n \n Hi there!\n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n

Hi there!

\n\n

\n I'm your cool new webpage. Made with Val Town!\n

\n \n",[174],"f8da3c4c-9065-4a06-824d-4611e8553309","favicon.svg","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a42e3b3ec658",["D",1789595019450],"",[180],"fbc1fba8-f6a4-436d-ab86-93e11db412d6","cron.ts","144328e0-b218-11f1-bc6e-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1789595191397],"interval","import { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\nimport { compute } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Runs on a schedule (every 15 min on Val Town free tier) and records one row\n// per cycle, so over days we build the evidence base to answer the real\n// question: does a genuine net-positive edge ever appear, how large, how often?\n// Email alerts are intentionally NOT wired yet — they come with the automated\n// LLM verification step, so we only ever alert on verified leads, never the\n// residual false ones.\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n const d = await compute(5);\n await sqlite.execute(`CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS history (\n ts TEXT, kalshi INTEGER, poly INTEGER, matches INTEGER, pos INTEGER, best_net REAL\n )`);\n const pos = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const best = d.leads.length ? d.leads[0].net : 0;\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: \"INSERT INTO history (ts, kalshi, poly, matches, pos, best_net) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)\",\n args: [d.stamp, d.kalshiCount, d.polyCount, d.leads.length, pos.length, best],\n });\n console.log(\n `stored ${d.stamp}: kalshi=${d.kalshiCount} poly=${d.polyCount} matches=${d.leads.length} pos=${pos.length} best=${(best * 100).toFixed(1)}c`,\n );\n}\n",[186],"f788f521-22ac-4929-be66-0cf60d3aef91","README.md","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a11d788c48c7",["D",1789595019450],"# Welcome to Val Town\n\nVal Town is the simplest way to get code running in the cloud.\n\nThis is a basic HTML starter template.\n\n## Picking a starter\n\n| Starter | When to pick it |\n| --- | --- |\n| **[`basic-html-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/basic-html-starter)** *(you're here)* | Static HTML pages. Sprinkle of vanilla JS. No server-side rendering. |\n| [`hono-jsx-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/hono-jsx-starter) | Dynamic server-rendered HTML with JSX. API routes. No React, no SPA. |\n| [`react-hono-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/react-hono-starter) | Client-side React SPA with a Hono API backend. |\n\n## Getting started\n\n1. Click `Remix` on this val to get a copy of it\n2. Click `main.tsx` to view the website\n3. Saves to any file will instantly deploy\n\n### ← main.tsx\n\nThis HTTP server hosts all of the other files in this val.\n\nTo view your site in a new tab, click on the `...` menu of `main.tsx` to copy\nyour live HTTP endpoint.\n\n### ← README.md\n\nThat's this file, where you can tell people what your cool website does and how\nyou built it.\n\n### ← index.html\n\nWhere you'll write the content of your website.\n\n### ← style.css\n\nCSS files add styling rules to your content.\n\n### ← script.js\n\nIf you're feeling fancy you can add interactivity to your site with JavaScript.\n\n### ← favicon.svg\n\nThe icon that shows up in the brower tab. 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Diff · v6