[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_309":310,"_311":312},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_98":97,"_31":43,"_107":88,"_26":108,"_13":14,"_109":-5,"_11":110,"_111":112,"_113":114,"_115":116,"_117":118,"_20":-5,"_119":-5,"_120":-5,"_121":24,"_122":123,"_124":57,"_125":-5,"_126":-5,"_127":128},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_41":42,"_31":43,"_36":44,"_45":-5,"_46":24,"_47":48,"_49":48,"_50":51,"_52":-5,"_18":53,"_54":55,"_56":57,"_58":-5,"_59":-5,"_60":61,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":-5,"_71":72,"_73":72,"_74":75,"_76":75,"_77":75,"_78":72,"_79":72,"_80":81,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_86":24},"version",16,"changes",[19],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_20":21,"_22":-7,"_23":24,"_25":24,"_26":27,"_28":27},"file",{"_29":30,"_31":27,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":14,"_39":40,"_23":24},"previous","deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","data-api.ts","latestPath","fileId","47307b60-b23e-11f1-b0d1-1607ee4eb77e","name","fileType","script","content","const DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\nexport async function readRows(path: string, params: Record) {\n const url = new URL(path, DATA);\n for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(params)) url.searchParams.set(key, String(value));\n const response = await fetch(url, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(15000) });\n if (!response.ok) throw new Error(`${path}: HTTP ${response.status}`);\n const rows: unknown = await response.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(rows) || rows.some((r) => !r || typeof r !== \"object\" || Array.isArray(r))) {\n throw new Error(`${path}: expected an array of records`);\n }\n return rows as Record[];\n}\n\n// CURRENT open positions only (no includeArchived): a live-holdings signal cares\n// about what a trader holds now, and archived history bloats the pull past the\n// HTTP timeout. Still validates identifiers/prices and detects unstable paging.\nexport async function readPositions(wallet: string) {\n const rows: Record[] = [];\n const seen = new Set();\n for (let offset = 0; offset <= 5000; offset += 500) {\n const page = await readRows(\"/positions\", { user: wallet, limit: 500, offset, sizeThreshold: 0 });\n for (const p of page) {\n if (typeof p.asset !== \"string\" || !p.asset || typeof p.conditionId !== \"string\" || !p.conditionId ||\n !Number.isFinite(p.currentValue) || p.currentValue < 0 ||\n !Number.isFinite(p.curPrice) || p.curPrice < 0 || p.curPrice > 1) {\n throw new Error(\"/positions: invalid identifiers or prices\");\n }\n if (seen.has(p.asset)) throw new Error(\"/positions: duplicate asset; unstable pagination\");\n seen.add(p.asset);\n rows.push(p);\n }\n if (page.length < 500) return rows;\n }\n throw new Error(\"/positions: pagination limit reached; incomplete portfolio\");\n}\n","createdAt",["D",1789611597704],"branchVersion","branchId","f1c2802b-7a05-402a-8e59-0a360e509b53","id","7b98160e-759a-451e-ac63-bac16ce91a02","predmarket-monitor",["D",1789595019450],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Live Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage monitor 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Rubio","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKu9e2FTAA0T_eao8qJSdToUv1ioGcVQUV0-zlGd4zBo0YpRA=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_41":42,"_31":43,"_36":304,"_45":-5,"_46":24,"_47":48,"_49":48,"_50":51,"_52":-5,"_18":53,"_54":55,"_56":57,"_58":-5,"_59":-5,"_60":61,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":305,"_70":-5,"_71":72,"_73":72,"_74":75,"_76":75,"_77":75,"_78":72,"_79":72,"_80":306,"_82":307,"_84":308,"_86":24},"tree",[247,248,249,250,251,252,253,254,255,256,257,258,259,260],"files",[247,248,249,250,251,252,253,254,255,256,257,258,259,260],"counts",{"_237":61,"_238":165,"_239":61,"_240":241,"_242":243},"contents",[129,130,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141,142],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_41":231,"_31":232,"_29":233,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":165,"_148":57,"_36":234,"_13":61,"_32":20,"_34":235,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":236},{"_41":224,"_31":225,"_29":226,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":227,"_148":24,"_36":228,"_13":61,"_32":151,"_34":229,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":230},{"_41":216,"_31":217,"_29":218,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":219,"_148":57,"_36":220,"_13":61,"_32":221,"_34":222,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":223},{"_41":213,"_31":27,"_29":30,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":14,"_148":24,"_36":214,"_13":61,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":215},{"_41":207,"_31":208,"_29":209,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":165,"_148":57,"_36":210,"_13":61,"_32":20,"_34":211,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":212},{"_41":201,"_31":202,"_29":203,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":165,"_148":57,"_36":204,"_13":61,"_32":20,"_34":205,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":206},{"_41":195,"_31":196,"_29":197,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":150,"_148":57,"_36":198,"_13":61,"_32":33,"_34":199,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":200},{"_41":190,"_31":191,"_29":55,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":181,"_148":57,"_36":192,"_13":165,"_32":151,"_34":193,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":194},{"_41":184,"_31":185,"_29":186,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":165,"_148":57,"_36":187,"_13":61,"_32":33,"_34":188,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":189},{"_41":176,"_31":177,"_29":178,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":179,"_148":57,"_36":180,"_13":181,"_32":33,"_34":182,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":183},{"_41":169,"_31":170,"_29":171,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":172,"_148":57,"_36":173,"_13":165,"_32":151,"_34":174,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":175},{"_41":162,"_31":163,"_29":164,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":165,"_148":57,"_36":166,"_13":61,"_32":20,"_34":167,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":168},{"_41":155,"_31":156,"_29":157,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":158,"_148":57,"_36":159,"_13":61,"_32":151,"_34":160,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":161},{"_41":143,"_31":144,"_29":145,"_146":-5,"_39":40,"_38":147,"_148":57,"_36":149,"_13":150,"_32":151,"_34":152,"_23":24,"_153":-5,"_26":154},"9c1ac5f4-fdbe-4b98-b542-c62a3957adba","winloss.tsx","f113fe64-b224-11f1-8d96-1607ee4eb77e","parentId",13,"latest",["D",1789602419939],2,"http","import { leaderboard, reconstruct } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\n\nfunction money(n: number) {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n const days = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"days\") ?? \"45\");\n const wallet = url.searchParams.get(\"wallet\");\n\n // Single-wallet detail mode: validate one trader deeply.\n if (wallet) {\n const r = await reconstruct(wallet, { sinceDays: days, maxPages: 40 });\n return Response.json({\n ...r,\n realizedWindowFmt: money(r.realizedWindow),\n topMarkets: r.topMarkets.map((m) => ({ ...m, realized: money(m.realized) })),\n });\n }\n\n // Shortlist mode: rank RECENTLY-ACTIVE politics traders (month board) by\n // recent-window win rate. Sequential to stay under rate limits.\n const minDecided = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"min\") ?? \"8\");\n const top = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"top\") ?? \"8\");\n const board = await leaderboard(\"POLITICS\", 1, \"MONTH\");\n const cands = board.slice(0, top);\n\n const rows: any[] = [];\n for (const c of cands) {\n try {\n const r = await reconstruct(c.proxyWallet, { sinceDays: days, maxPages: 30 });\n rows.push({\n name: c.userName || c.proxyWallet.slice(0, 10),\n monthPnl: money(c.pnl),\n decided: r.decidedMarkets,\n wins: r.wins,\n losses: r.losses,\n winRatePct: +(r.winRate * 100).toFixed(1),\n realizedWindow: money(r.realizedWindow),\n excluded: { open: r.openSkipped, spanning: r.spanning, complex: r.complexSkipped },\n coverage: r.coverageNote,\n });\n } catch (e) {\n rows.push({ name: c.userName, error: String(e) });\n }\n }\n const ranked = rows\n .filter((r) => !r.error && r.decided >= minDecided)\n .sort((a, b) => b.winRatePct - a.winRatePct);\n\n return Response.json({\n params: { windowDays: days, minDecided, source: \"POLITICS month leaderboard\" },\n leaderByWinRate: ranked[0]?.name ?? null,\n ranked,\n all: rows,\n });\n}\n","label",[144],"39a2628e-96da-42fb-b73b-e4df9be19241","vet.tsx","aac4dd02-b229-11f1-bcc0-1607ee4eb77e",14,["D",1789602745352],"import { leaderboard } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\ntype Row = { proxyWallet: string; userName: string; pnl: number; vol: number };\n\nasync function walletWindow(category: string, timePeriod: string, wallet: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(`${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${category}&timePeriod=${timePeriod}&user=${wallet}`);\n if (!r.ok) return null;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Row[];\n return rows[0] ?? null;\n}\n\nfunction money(n: number) {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\nconst eff = (r: { pnl: number; vol: number }) => (r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0);\n\n// Vet currently-active politics traders using Polymarket's OWN authoritative\n// P&L across time windows. Skill proxy = consistently profitable (this month AND\n// all-time) with real volume, ranked by all-time efficiency (return per $ traded).\n// No fragile negRisk reconstruction; we trust the venue's computed numbers.\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n const top = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"top\") ?? \"15\");\n const minAllVol = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"minvol\") ?? \"250000\");\n const cat = url.searchParams.get(\"cat\") ?? \"POLITICS\";\n\n const month = await leaderboard(cat, 1, \"MONTH\"); // active now\n const cands = month.slice(0, top);\n\n const rows: any[] = [];\n for (const c of cands) {\n const all = await walletWindow(cat, \"ALL\", c.proxyWallet);\n const week = await walletWindow(cat, \"WEEK\", c.proxyWallet);\n const consistent = !!all && all.pnl > 0 && c.pnl > 0;\n rows.push({\n name: c.userName || c.proxyWallet.slice(0, 10),\n wallet: c.proxyWallet,\n week: week ? { pnl: money(week.pnl), effPct: +(eff(week) * 100).toFixed(1) } : null,\n month: { pnl: money(c.pnl), effPct: +(eff(c) * 100).toFixed(1) },\n allTime: all ? { pnl: money(all.pnl), vol: money(all.vol), effPct: +(eff(all) * 100).toFixed(1), rawVol: all.vol, rawEff: eff(all) } : null,\n consistent,\n });\n }\n\n const ranked = rows\n .filter((r) => r.consistent && r.allTime && r.allTime.rawVol >= minAllVol)\n .sort((a, b) => b.allTime.rawEff - a.allTime.rawEff)\n .map(({ allTime, ...r }) => ({ ...r, allTime: { pnl: allTime.pnl, vol: allTime.vol, effPct: allTime.effPct } }));\n\n return Response.json({\n params: { category: cat, activeFrom: \"MONTH board\", minAllVol, ranked: ranked.length, of: rows.length },\n note: \"Ranked: currently active + profitable this month AND all-time, real volume, by all-time efficiency. Polymarket's own P&L; no reconstruction.\",\n vetted: ranked,\n });\n}\n",[156],"4b37291a-f047-460e-9713-84fb7c2c5057","style.css","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-b5799b58f170",1,["D",1789595019450],"/* CSS files add styling rules to your content */\n\nbody {\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n margin: 2em;\n}\n\nh1 {\n font-style: italic;\n color: #373fff;\n}",[163],"5cee6815-1091-4677-ad37-79652a513134","smartmoney_http.tsx","a4a49238-b21e-11f1-873d-1607ee4eb77e",8,["D",1789598025051],"import { analyze } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\n\nfunction eff(r: { pnl: number; vol: number }) {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\nfunction money(n: number) {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e9) return `$${(n / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`;\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const cats = [\"OVERALL\", \"POLITICS\"];\n const out: any = {};\n for (const c of cats) {\n const a = await analyze(c);\n const shape = (r: any) => ({\n name: r.userName || r.proxyWallet.slice(0, 10),\n wallet: r.proxyWallet,\n pnl: money(r.pnl),\n vol: money(r.vol),\n effPct: +(eff(r) * 100).toFixed(2),\n });\n out[c] = {\n pulled: a.count,\n byRawPnl: a.byPnl.slice(0, 8).map(shape),\n byEfficiency: a.byEff.slice(0, 8).map(shape),\n };\n }\n return Response.json(out);\n}\n",[170],"a26eaad1-02b3-4f2d-80e7-3ed5909e74a1","smartmoney.ts","82953332-b21e-11f1-afc2-1607ee4eb77e",12,["D",1789602393690],3,"// Smart-money signal engine — module 1.\n// Detect-only. Reads Polymarket's PUBLIC data API (global, on-chain).\n// v2: recent-window win/loss reconstruction (paged one wallet at a time,\n// rate-limit aware), so numbers are trustworthy and reflect CURRENT form —\n// which is what a live-following signal needs. Lifetime reconstruction of\n// high-volume wallets is thousands of paged events + rate limits; a bounded\n// recent window sidesteps that and is the right question anyway.\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\ntype Row = {\n rank: string;\n proxyWallet: string;\n userName: string;\n pnl: number;\n vol: number;\n};\n\nexport async function leaderboard(\n category: string,\n pages = 2,\n timePeriod = \"ALL\",\n): Promise {\n const out: Row[] = [];\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const url =\n `${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${category}&timePeriod=${timePeriod}` +\n `&orderBy=PNL&limit=50&offset=${p * 50}`;\n const r = await fetch(url);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Row[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n out.push(...rows);\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction eff(r: Row): number {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\n\nexport async function analyze(category: string, minVol = 250_000) {\n const rows = await leaderboard(category);\n const byPnl = [...rows].sort((a, b) => b.pnl - a.pnl);\n const eligible = rows.filter((r) => r.vol >= minVol && r.pnl > 0);\n const byEff = [...eligible].sort((a, b) => eff(b) - eff(a));\n return { category, count: rows.length, byPnl, byEff };\n}\n\n// ---- recent-window win/loss reconstruction -----------------------------------\n\ntype Act = {\n type: string; // TRADE | REDEEM | MERGE | SPLIT | CONVERSION | REWARD | ...\n side: string; // BUY | SELL | \"\"\n size: number;\n usdcSize: number;\n conditionId: string;\n timestamp: number;\n title?: string;\n transactionHash?: string;\n asset?: string;\n};\n\nasync function pageActivitySince(\n wallet: string,\n cutoff: number,\n maxPages: number,\n): Promise<{ acts: Act[]; hitCutoff: boolean; rateLimited: boolean; pages: number }> {\n const acts: Act[] = [];\n const seen = new Set();\n let hitCutoff = false, rateLimited = false, pages = 0;\n for (let p = 0; p < maxPages; p++) {\n pages++;\n let r: Response;\n try {\n r = await fetch(`${DATA}/activity?user=${wallet}&limit=500&offset=${p * 500}`);\n } catch {\n rateLimited = true;\n break;\n }\n if (r.status === 429) { rateLimited = true; break; }\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Act[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n for (const row of rows) {\n const k = `${row.transactionHash}-${row.asset}-${row.type}`;\n if (seen.has(k)) continue;\n seen.add(k);\n if (row.timestamp >= cutoff) acts.push(row);\n }\n // rows are newest-first; once the last row on a page predates the cutoff,\n // everything beyond is older too.\n if (rows[rows.length - 1].timestamp < cutoff) { hitCutoff = true; break; }\n if (rows.length < 500) break;\n await new Promise((res) => setTimeout(res, 120)); // be gentle on the API\n }\n return { acts, hitCutoff, rateLimited, pages };\n}\n\nasync function openConditions(wallet: string): Promise> {\n const open = new Set();\n for (let p = 0; p < 6; p++) {\n const r = await fetch(`${DATA}/positions?user=${wallet}&limit=500&offset=${p * 500}`);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as any[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n for (const pos of rows) open.add(pos.conditionId);\n if (rows.length < 500) break;\n }\n return open;\n}\n\n// A market counts toward win/loss only when it is cleanly reconstructable in the\n// window: fully contained (first event >= cutoff so no buys were missed), closed\n// (no open position), and free of MERGE/SPLIT/CONVERSION events (whose share\n// accounting we don't model). Excluded markets are counted, not silently dropped.\nexport async function reconstruct(\n wallet: string,\n opts: { sinceDays?: number; maxPages?: number } = {},\n) {\n const sinceDays = opts.sinceDays ?? 45;\n const maxPages = opts.maxPages ?? 30;\n const cutoff = Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000) - sinceDays * 86400;\n\n const { acts, hitCutoff, rateLimited, pages } = await pageActivitySince(wallet, cutoff, maxPages);\n const openSet = await openConditions(wallet);\n\n type M = { buy: number; sell: number; redeem: number; first: number; last: number; complex: boolean; title: string };\n const mkt = new Map();\n for (const a of acts) {\n if (!a.conditionId) continue;\n let m = mkt.get(a.conditionId);\n if (!m) { m = { buy: 0, sell: 0, redeem: 0, first: a.timestamp, last: a.timestamp, complex: false, title: a.title || \"\" }; mkt.set(a.conditionId, m); }\n m.first = Math.min(m.first, a.timestamp);\n m.last = Math.max(m.last, a.timestamp);\n if (a.type === \"TRADE\" && a.side === \"BUY\") m.buy += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"TRADE\" && a.side === \"SELL\") m.sell += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"REDEEM\") m.redeem += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"MERGE\" || a.type === \"SPLIT\" || a.type === \"CONVERSION\") m.complex = true;\n }\n\n let wins = 0, losses = 0, scratch = 0, realized = 0;\n let openSkipped = 0, spanning = 0, complexSkipped = 0;\n const details: { title: string; realized: number; win: boolean }[] = [];\n for (const [cid, m] of mkt) {\n if (openSet.has(cid)) { openSkipped++; continue; }\n if (m.first < cutoff) { spanning++; continue; }\n if (m.complex) { complexSkipped++; continue; }\n const pnl = m.sell + m.redeem - m.buy;\n if (Math.abs(pnl) < 1) { scratch++; continue; }\n realized += pnl;\n const win = pnl > 0;\n if (win) wins++; else losses++;\n details.push({ title: m.title, realized: pnl, win });\n }\n const decided = wins + losses;\n details.sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.realized) - Math.abs(a.realized));\n return {\n wallet, sinceDays, decidedMarkets: decided, wins, losses, scratch,\n winRate: decided ? wins / decided : 0, realizedWindow: realized,\n openSkipped, spanning, complexSkipped,\n coverageNote: hitCutoff ? \"window fully covered\" : rateLimited ? \"TRUNCATED (rate-limited)\" : \"reached page cap\",\n eventsInWindow: acts.length, pages,\n topMarkets: details.slice(0, 5),\n };\n}\n",[177],"053a1954-ce24-412f-a90b-5f8fc194f0d2","script.js","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-b3202819cddd",["D",1789595019450],"/* If you're feeling fancy you can add interactivity\n to your site with Javascript.\n Note: TypeScript won't work in this file. */\n\n// prints \"hi\" in the browser's dev tools console\nconsole.log(\"hi\");",[185],"e9be5703-5d68-41ca-ac63-2020a3413468","main.tsx",["D",1789595133283],"import { compute, renderDashboard } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Live dashboard. Recomputes fresh on each view (the page auto-refreshes),\n// so what you see is always current. Detect-only: reads public prices only.\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n try {\n const data = await compute(3);\n return new Response(renderDashboard(data, 60), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n } catch (e) {\n return new Response(`

monitor error: ${String(e)}

`, {\n status: 500,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n }\n}\n",[191],"7c479c6c-2ac5-49b5-9a73-7f27336a3447","lib.ts","e740e4c2-b217-11f1-aacd-1607ee4eb77e",["D",1789595115886],"// lib.ts — shared logic for the live prediction-market monitor (detect-only).\n// Fetches public Kalshi + Polymarket data, runs fee-aware detection and a\n// predicate/subject/year-aware cross-venue matcher, and renders the dashboard.\n// No account, no keys, no orders. Reads public prices only.\n\nconst STOP = new Set(\n \"a an the of to in on for and or is are be will who what which when where by at as this that it who's whos then do does did have has had not no s\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\n// Generic words shared across many markets — NOT distinctive. Includes role\n// words (prime minister, chancellor, ceo, ...) so \"next Prime Minister of X\"\n// only matches on the country/person, never on the shared role.\nconst GENERIC = new Set(\n \"democratic democrat republican gop presidential president vice vp nomination nominee nominated election elect electoral senate senator house congress governor gubernatorial mayor mayoral party primary race win wins winner won run runs running candidate candidacy next control chamber seat margin victory popular vote general ticket secretary attorney prime minister chancellor premier king queen pope ceo chairman chair leader head monarch state states us united 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 before after during term season game match team cup league\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\nconst WIN = new Set([\"win\", \"wins\", \"winner\", \"won\"]);\nconst RUN = new Set([\"run\", \"runs\", \"running\", \"candidate\", \"candidacy\", \"enter\", \"declare\", \"announce\", \"launch\"]);\nconst RETIRE = new Set([\"retire\", \"retires\", \"retirement\"]);\n// If a Polymarket \"will X WIN\" question is matched to Kalshi, the Kalshi side\n// must be a selection market (contain one of these), else it's a different bet.\nconst SELECTION = new Set([\"nominee\", \"nominated\", \"nomination\", \"winner\", \"win\", \"wins\", \"won\", \"election\", \"elected\"]);\n\nconst KALSHI_EVENTS = \"https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?limit=200&status=open&with_nested_markets=true\";\n\nfunction fnum(x: unknown): number {\n const n = parseFloat(String(x));\n return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : 0;\n}\nfunction fee(p: number): number {\n return p > 0 && p < 1 ? 0.07 * p * (1 - p) : 0;\n}\nfunction tok(text: string): string[] {\n return (text || \"\").toLowerCase().match(/[a-z0-9]+/g)?.filter((w) => !STOP.has(w) && w.length >= 2) ?? [];\n}\nfunction subjects(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => !GENERIC.has(w) && w.length >= 3 && !/^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction years(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => /^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction action(toks: string[]): string {\n const s = new Set(toks);\n const has = (g: Set) => [...g].some((w) => s.has(w));\n if (has(RETIRE)) return \"RETIRE\";\n if (has(WIN) && !has(RUN)) return \"WIN\";\n if (has(RUN) && !has(WIN)) return \"RUN\";\n return \"UNKNOWN\";\n}\nfunction inter(a: Set, b: Set): number {\n let n = 0;\n for (const x of a) if (b.has(x)) n++;\n return n;\n}\nfunction overlap(a: string[], b: string[]): number {\n const A = new Set(a), B = new Set(b);\n const m = Math.min(A.size, B.size);\n return m ? inter(A, B) / m : 0;\n}\n\nasync function getJson(url: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(url, { headers: { \"User-Agent\": \"predmarket-monitor/1.0\" } });\n if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`${url} -> ${r.status}`);\n return r.json();\n}\n\nexport interface KBinary {\n text: string; tok: string[]; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string;\n yes_ask: number; no_ask: number; vol: number;\n}\nexport interface NetLock { title: string; n: number; lock_net: number; vol: number; }\nexport interface PolyMkt { q: string; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string; tok: string[]; yes: number; no: number; }\nexport interface Lead { q: string; k: string; score: number; net: number; side: string; }\n\nasync function fetchKalshi(pages: number): Promise<{ binaries: KBinary[]; netLocks: NetLock[] }> {\n const binaries: KBinary[] = [];\n const netLocks: NetLock[] = [];\n let cursor: string | undefined;\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const data = await getJson(KALSHI_EVENTS + (cursor ? \"&cursor=\" + cursor : \"\"));\n for (const ev of data.events ?? []) {\n const title: string = ev.title ?? \"\";\n const me = Boolean(ev.mutually_exclusive);\n const outs: { ya: number; na: number }[] = [];\n for (const m of ev.markets ?? []) {\n const ya = fnum(m.yes_ask_dollars), na = fnum(m.no_ask_dollars), mv = fnum(m.volume_fp);\n if (me && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) outs.push({ ya, na });\n if (mv > 0 && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) {\n const sub = m.yes_sub_title || m.subtitle || \"\";\n const text = (title + \" \" + sub).trim();\n const t = tok(text);\n binaries.push({ text, tok: t, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), yes_ask: ya, no_ask: na, vol: mv });\n }\n }\n if (me && outs.length >= 2) {\n const n = outs.length;\n const lockGross = (n - 1) - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + o.na, 0);\n const lockNet = lockGross - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + fee(o.na), 0);\n if (lockNet > 0) netLocks.push({ title, n, lock_net: lockNet, vol: ev.markets?.reduce((s: number, m: any) => s + fnum(m.volume_fp), 0) ?? 0 });\n }\n }\n cursor = data.cursor;\n if (!cursor) break;\n }\n netLocks.sort((a, b) => b.lock_net - a.lock_net);\n return { binaries, netLocks };\n}\n\nasync function fetchPoly(): Promise {\n const url = \"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=250&active=true&closed=false&order=volumeNum&ascending=false\";\n const rows = await getJson(url);\n const list = Array.isArray(rows) ? rows : (rows.data ?? []);\n const out: PolyMkt[] = [];\n for (const m of list) {\n let outs: string[], prices: number[];\n try { outs = JSON.parse(m.outcomes ?? \"[]\"); prices = (JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices ?? \"[]\") as string[]).map(Number); }\n catch { continue; }\n const low = outs.map((o) => String(o).toLowerCase());\n if (low.includes(\"yes\") && low.includes(\"no\") && prices.length === outs.length) {\n const q = m.question ?? \"\";\n const t = tok(q);\n out.push({ q, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), tok: t, yes: prices[low.indexOf(\"yes\")], no: prices[low.indexOf(\"no\")] });\n }\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction crossMatch(binaries: KBinary[], poly: PolyMkt[]): Lead[] {\n const index = new Map();\n for (const k of binaries) for (const s of k.subj) (index.get(s) ?? index.set(s, []).get(s)!).push(k);\n const leads: Lead[] = [];\n for (const p of poly) {\n if (p.subj.size < 2) continue;\n const seen = new Set();\n const cands: KBinary[] = [];\n for (const s of p.subj) for (const k of index.get(s) ?? []) if (!seen.has(k)) { seen.add(k); cands.push(k); }\n let best: KBinary | null = null, bestScore = 0;\n for (const k of cands) {\n if (inter(p.subj, k.subj) < 2) continue; // >=2 shared distinctive words\n if ([\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(p.act) && [\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(k.act) && p.act !== k.act) continue;\n if (p.yr.size && k.yr.size && inter(p.yr, k.yr) === 0) continue; // year conflict\n if (p.act === \"WIN\" && !k.tok.some((w) => SELECTION.has(w))) continue; // WIN must match a selection market\n const sc = overlap(p.tok, k.tok);\n if (sc > bestScore) { best = k; bestScore = sc; }\n }\n if (best && bestScore >= 0.5) {\n const netA = 1 - (best.yes_ask + p.no) - fee(best.yes_ask);\n const netB = 1 - (p.yes + best.no_ask) - fee(best.no_ask);\n const [net, side] = netA >= netB ? [netA, \"Kalshi YES + Poly NO\"] : [netB, \"Poly YES + Kalshi NO\"];\n leads.push({ q: p.q, k: best.text, score: bestScore, net, side });\n }\n }\n return leads.sort((a, b) => b.net - a.net);\n}\n\nexport interface MonitorData {\n stamp: string; kalshiCount: number; polyCount: number; netLocks: NetLock[]; leads: Lead[];\n}\n\nexport async function compute(pages = 4): Promise {\n const [{ binaries, netLocks }, poly] = await Promise.all([fetchKalshi(pages), fetchPoly()]);\n const leads = crossMatch(binaries, poly);\n return {\n stamp: new Date().toISOString().replace(\"T\", \" \").slice(0, 19) + \" UTC\",\n kalshiCount: binaries.length, polyCount: poly.length, netLocks, leads,\n };\n}\n\n// Leads worth an email alert: net edge above threshold. Conservative to avoid spam.\nexport function strongLeads(d: MonitorData, minNet = 0.03): Lead[] {\n return d.leads.filter((l) => l.net >= minNet);\n}\n\nconst esc = (s: string) => String(s).replace(/[&<>\"]/g, (c) => ({ \"&\": \"&\", \"<\": \"<\", \">\": \">\", '\"': \""\" }[c]!));\nconst c = (x: number) => (x >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + (x * 100).toFixed(1) + \"c\";\n\nexport function renderDashboard(d: MonitorData, refresh = 60): string {\n const posLeads = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const tiles = [\n [d.kalshiCount, \"Kalshi markets\"], [d.polyCount, \"Polymarket markets\"],\n [d.leads.length, \"cross-venue matches\"], [posLeads.length, \"net-positive leads\"],\n ].map(([n, l]) => `

${n}

${l}

`).join(\"\");\n\n const leadRows = d.leads.slice(0, 25).map((l) => {\n const cls = l.net > 0 ? \"pos\" : \"neg\";\n const pill = l.net > 0 ? 'lead' : \"\";\n return `${esc(l.q.slice(0, 62))}
${esc(l.k.slice(0, 62))}` +\n `${l.score.toFixed(2)}${c(l.net)}${esc(l.side)}${pill}`;\n }).join(\"\");\n const leadsHtml = d.leads.length\n ? `${leadRows}

Matched pair (Polymarket / Kalshi)	Match	Net edge	Construction

`\n : '

No confident cross-venue matches this cycle.

';\n\n const locksHtml = d.netLocks.length\n ? `${d.netLocks.slice(0, 10).map((m) => ``).join(\"\")}

Event	Outcomes	Net edge
${esc(m.title.slice(0, 60))}	${m.n}	${c(m.lock_net)}

`\n : '

No single-venue lock clears fees this cycle. Normal and expected.

';\n\n return `\n\n\nLive Prediction Market Monitor

Live Prediction Market Monitor

Detect-only, hosted on Val Town. Auto-refreshing every ${refresh}s. Last updated ${esc(d.stamp)}.

${tiles}

Cross-venue leads (Kalshi vs Polymarket)

Same-bet matches with a positive net-of-fees edge. UNVERIFIED leads: confirm identical resolution + date, use executable order-book prices, and check you can trade the Polymarket side as a US resident before trusting any of these.

\n${leadsHtml}

Single-venue locks (Kalshi, fee-aware)

Mutually-exclusive events whose sell-side edge survives estimated fees.

\n${locksHtml}

Live public-data monitor. It only reads; it never trades. Cross-venue edges use indicative Polymarket prices, not executable order-book asks.

`;\n}\n",[196],"6291d64b-3984-4a40-b237-f0e762ebdd04","index.html","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-aa3cf4df43c1",["D",1789595019450],"\n\n \n Hi there!\n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n

Hi there!

\n\n

\n I'm your cool new webpage. Made with Val Town!\n

\n \n",[202],"f8da3c4c-9065-4a06-824d-4611e8553309","favicon.svg","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a42e3b3ec658",["D",1789595019450],"",[208],"880b1555-f40d-4f71-b797-e757c06548cb",["D",1789611597704],[27],"fbc1fba8-f6a4-436d-ab86-93e11db412d6","cron.ts","144328e0-b218-11f1-bc6e-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1789595191397],"interval","import { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\nimport { compute } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Runs on a schedule (every 15 min on Val Town free tier) and records one row\n// per cycle, so over days we build the evidence base to answer the real\n// question: does a genuine net-positive edge ever appear, how large, how often?\n// Email alerts are intentionally NOT wired yet — they come with the automated\n// LLM verification step, so we only ever alert on verified leads, never the\n// residual false ones.\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n const d = await compute(5);\n await sqlite.execute(`CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS history (\n ts TEXT, kalshi INTEGER, poly INTEGER, matches INTEGER, pos INTEGER, best_net REAL\n )`);\n const pos = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const best = d.leads.length ? d.leads[0].net : 0;\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: \"INSERT INTO history (ts, kalshi, poly, matches, pos, best_net) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)\",\n args: [d.stamp, d.kalshiCount, d.polyCount, d.leads.length, pos.length, best],\n });\n console.log(\n `stored ${d.stamp}: kalshi=${d.kalshiCount} poly=${d.polyCount} matches=${d.leads.length} pos=${pos.length} best=${(best * 100).toFixed(1)}c`,\n );\n}\n",[217],"f5fcc4c7-00e1-40ee-9247-43d9fc6eb444","confluence.tsx","0a0ca204-b22a-11f1-ab9a-1607ee4eb77e",15,["D",1789602905206],"import { leaderboard } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\nconst sleep = (ms: number) => new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, ms));\n\ntype Lb = { proxyWallet: string; userName: string; pnl: number; vol: number };\n\nasync function walletWindow(cat: string, tp: string, wallet: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(`${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${cat}&timePeriod=${tp}&user=${wallet}`);\n if (!r.ok) return null;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Lb[];\n return rows[0] ?? null;\n}\n\nasync function positions(wallet: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(`${DATA}/positions?user=${wallet}&limit=500`);\n if (!r.ok) return [];\n return (await r.json()) as any[];\n}\n\nfunction money(n: number) {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\n// Confluence signal: among vetted (currently-active + consistently-profitable)\n// politics traders, find the specific market+side that multiple of them hold\n// RIGHT NOW. Live positions, no historical accounting. Detect-only.\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n const cat = url.searchParams.get(\"cat\") ?? \"POLITICS\";\n const top = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"top\") ?? \"12\");\n const minAllVol = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"minvol\") ?? \"250000\");\n const dust = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"dust\") ?? \"500\"); // ignore positions below this current value\n\n // 1) currently-active board\n const month = await leaderboard(cat, 1, \"MONTH\");\n const cands = month.slice(0, top);\n\n // 2) vet: consistent (month + all-time positive) with real volume\n const vetted: { name: string; wallet: string }[] = [];\n for (const c of cands) {\n const all = await walletWindow(cat, \"ALL\", c.proxyWallet);\n if (c.pnl > 0 && all && all.pnl > 0 && all.vol >= minAllVol) {\n vetted.push({ name: c.userName || c.proxyWallet.slice(0, 8), wallet: c.proxyWallet });\n }\n await sleep(60);\n }\n\n // 3) current holdings of each vetted trader, grouped by exact side (asset token)\n type Side = { title: string; outcome: string; endDate: string; curPrice: number; holders: { name: string; value: number; avgPrice: number }[]; total: number };\n const sides = new Map();\n for (const v of vetted) {\n const pos = await positions(v.wallet);\n for (const p of pos) {\n const value = Number(p.currentValue) || 0;\n if (value < dust) continue;\n const key = p.asset;\n let s = sides.get(key);\n if (!s) { s = { title: p.title, outcome: p.outcome, endDate: p.endDate, curPrice: Number(p.curPrice) || 0, holders: [], total: 0 }; sides.set(key, s); }\n s.holders.push({ name: v.name, value, avgPrice: Number(p.avgPrice) || 0 });\n s.total += value;\n }\n await sleep(60);\n }\n\n // 4) confluence = same side held by >= 2 vetted traders\n const confluence = [...sides.values()]\n .filter((s) => s.holders.length >= 2)\n .sort((a, b) => b.holders.length - a.holders.length || b.total - a.total)\n .map((s) => ({\n market: s.title,\n side: s.outcome,\n holders: s.holders.length,\n who: s.holders.sort((a, b) => b.value - a.value).map((h) => `${h.name} (${money(h.value)} @ ${(h.avgPrice * 100).toFixed(0)}c)`),\n totalExposure: money(s.total),\n currentPrice: +(s.curPrice * 100).toFixed(1),\n endDate: s.endDate,\n }));\n\n return Response.json({\n params: { category: cat, vettedTraders: vetted.length, dustFloor: dust },\n vetted: vetted.map((v) => v.name),\n note: \"Confluence = market+side held right now by 2+ vetted traders. Independence not yet verified (linked/copy wallets possible). Directional signal, not arbitrage.\",\n confluenceCount: confluence.length,\n confluence,\n });\n}\n",[225],"f788f521-22ac-4929-be66-0cf60d3aef91","README.md","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a11d788c48c7",["D",1789595019450],"# Welcome to Val Town\n\nVal Town is the simplest way to get code running in the cloud.\n\nThis is a basic HTML starter template.\n\n## Picking a starter\n\n| Starter | When to pick it |\n| --- | --- |\n| **[`basic-html-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/basic-html-starter)** *(you're here)* | Static HTML pages. Sprinkle of vanilla JS. No server-side rendering. |\n| [`hono-jsx-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/hono-jsx-starter) | Dynamic server-rendered HTML with JSX. API routes. No React, no SPA. |\n| [`react-hono-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/react-hono-starter) | Client-side React SPA with a Hono API backend. |\n\n## Getting started\n\n1. Click `Remix` on this val to get a copy of it\n2. Click `main.tsx` to view the website\n3. Saves to any file will instantly deploy\n\n### ← main.tsx\n\nThis HTTP server hosts all of the other files in this val.\n\nTo view your site in a new tab, click on the `...` menu of `main.tsx` to copy\nyour live HTTP endpoint.\n\n### ← README.md\n\nThat's this file, where you can tell people what your cool website does and how\nyou built it.\n\n### ← index.html\n\nWhere you'll write the content of your website.\n\n### ← style.css\n\nCSS files add styling rules to your content.\n\n### ← script.js\n\nIf you're feeling fancy you can add interactivity to your site with JavaScript.\n\n### ← favicon.svg\n\nThe icon that shows up in the brower tab. 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Diff · v16