[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_275":276,"_277":278},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_100":99,"_32":45,"_109":90,"_27":110,"_13":14,"_111":-5,"_11":112,"_113":114,"_115":116,"_117":118,"_119":120,"_20":-5,"_121":-5,"_122":-5,"_123":25,"_124":125,"_126":59,"_127":-5,"_128":-5,"_129":130},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":46,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":71,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_86":87,"_88":25},"version",12,"changes",[19],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_20":21,"_22":23,"_24":25,"_26":25,"_27":28,"_29":28},"file",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_38":39,"_40":14,"_41":42,"_24":25},"previous",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":36},"deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","smartmoney.ts","latestPath","fileId","82953332-b21e-11f1-afc2-1607ee4eb77e","name","fileType","script","content","// Smart-money signal engine — module 1: re-rank traders by skill, not size,\n// then reconstruct real per-trade win/loss over time.\n// Detect-only. Reads Polymarket's PUBLIC data API (global, on-chain).\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\ntype Row = {\n rank: string;\n proxyWallet: string;\n userName: string;\n pnl: number;\n vol: number;\n};\n\nasync function leaderboard(\n category: string,\n pages = 2,\n timePeriod = \"ALL\",\n): Promise {\n const out: Row[] = [];\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const url =\n `${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${category}&timePeriod=${timePeriod}` +\n `&orderBy=PNL&limit=50&offset=${p * 50}`;\n const r = await fetch(url);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Row[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n out.push(...rows);\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction eff(r: Row): number {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\n\nfunction fmtMoney(n: number): string {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e9) return `$${(n / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`;\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport async function analyze(category: string, minVol = 250_000) {\n const rows = await leaderboard(category);\n const byPnl = [...rows].sort((a, b) => b.pnl - a.pnl);\n const eligible = rows.filter((r) => r.vol >= minVol && r.pnl > 0);\n const byEff = [...eligible].sort((a, b) => eff(b) - eff(a));\n return { category, count: rows.length, byPnl, byEff };\n}\n\n// ---- per-trade win/loss reconstruction --------------------------------------\n\ntype Act = {\n type: string;\n side: string;\n size: number;\n usdcSize: number;\n conditionId: string;\n timestamp: number;\n title?: string;\n transactionHash?: string;\n asset?: string;\n};\n\n// Robust pager: works whether or not the endpoint honors offset. Dedupes by\n// key and stops when a page adds nothing new or returns a short page.\nasync function fetchAll(\n path: string,\n wallet: string,\n keyFn: (r: any) => string,\n maxPages: number,\n pageSize = 500,\n): Promise {\n const out: any[] = [];\n const seen = new Set();\n for (let p = 0; p < maxPages; p++) {\n const r = await fetch(\n `${DATA}${path}?user=${wallet}&limit=${pageSize}&offset=${p * pageSize}`,\n );\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as any[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n let added = 0;\n for (const row of rows) {\n const k = keyFn(row);\n if (!seen.has(k)) {\n seen.add(k);\n out.push(row);\n added++;\n }\n }\n if (added === 0) break;\n if (rows.length < pageSize) break;\n }\n return out;\n}\n\n// Reconstruct a wallet's realized record. A market (conditionId) counts as\n// \"decided\" once the wallet holds no open position in it; realized cash =\n// sells + redemptions - buys. Win if realized > $1, loss if < -$1, else scratch.\n// Fees, negRisk merges/splits, and liquidity rewards are not modeled (v1).\nexport async function reconstruct(wallet: string, maxPages = 25) {\n const [acts, pos] = await Promise.all([\n fetchAll(\n \"/activity\",\n wallet,\n (r) => `${r.transactionHash}-${r.asset}-${r.type}`,\n maxPages,\n ),\n fetchAll(\"/positions\", wallet, (r) => `${r.asset}`, 8),\n ]);\n const openSet = new Set((pos as any[]).map((p) => p.conditionId));\n\n const mkt = new Map<\n string,\n { buy: number; sell: number; redeem: number; ts: number; title: string }\n >();\n for (const a of acts as Act[]) {\n if (!a.conditionId) continue;\n let m = mkt.get(a.conditionId);\n if (!m) {\n m = { buy: 0, sell: 0, redeem: 0, ts: 0, title: a.title || \"\" };\n mkt.set(a.conditionId, m);\n }\n if (a.type === \"TRADE\" && a.side === \"BUY\") m.buy += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"TRADE\" && a.side === \"SELL\") m.sell += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"REDEEM\") m.redeem += a.usdcSize || 0;\n if (a.timestamp > m.ts) m.ts = a.timestamp;\n }\n\n let wins = 0, losses = 0, scratch = 0, realizedTotal = 0;\n const byYear: Record = {};\n for (const [cid, m] of mkt) {\n if (openSet.has(cid)) continue; // still open -> unrealized, skip\n const realized = m.sell + m.redeem - m.buy;\n if (Math.abs(realized) < 1) { scratch++; continue; }\n const yr = new Date(m.ts * 1000).getUTCFullYear().toString();\n byYear[yr] ||= { n: 0, wins: 0, realized: 0 };\n byYear[yr].n++;\n byYear[yr].realized += realized;\n if (realized > 0) { wins++; byYear[yr].wins++; } else losses++;\n realizedTotal += realized;\n }\n const decided = wins + losses;\n return {\n wallet,\n decidedMarkets: decided,\n wins,\n losses,\n scratch,\n winRate: decided ? wins / decided : 0,\n realizedClosed: realizedTotal,\n byYear,\n activityPulled: acts.length,\n capped: acts.length >= maxPages * 500,\n };\n}\n\nexport default async function () {\n return { ok: true, note: \"use the http endpoints\" };\n}\n","// Smart-money signal engine — module 1.\n// Detect-only. Reads Polymarket's PUBLIC data API (global, on-chain).\n// v2: recent-window win/loss reconstruction (paged one wallet at a time,\n// rate-limit aware), so numbers are trustworthy and reflect CURRENT form —\n// which is what a live-following signal needs. Lifetime reconstruction of\n// high-volume wallets is thousands of paged events + rate limits; a bounded\n// recent window sidesteps that and is the right question anyway.\n\nconst DATA = \"https://data-api.polymarket.com\";\n\ntype Row = {\n rank: string;\n proxyWallet: string;\n userName: string;\n pnl: number;\n vol: number;\n};\n\nexport async function leaderboard(\n category: string,\n pages = 2,\n timePeriod = \"ALL\",\n): Promise {\n const out: Row[] = [];\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const url =\n `${DATA}/v1/leaderboard?category=${category}&timePeriod=${timePeriod}` +\n `&orderBy=PNL&limit=50&offset=${p * 50}`;\n const r = await fetch(url);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Row[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n out.push(...rows);\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction eff(r: Row): number {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\n\nexport async function analyze(category: string, minVol = 250_000) {\n const rows = await leaderboard(category);\n const byPnl = [...rows].sort((a, b) => b.pnl - a.pnl);\n const eligible = rows.filter((r) => r.vol >= minVol && r.pnl > 0);\n const byEff = [...eligible].sort((a, b) => eff(b) - eff(a));\n return { category, count: rows.length, byPnl, byEff };\n}\n\n// ---- recent-window win/loss reconstruction -----------------------------------\n\ntype Act = {\n type: string; // TRADE | REDEEM | MERGE | SPLIT | CONVERSION | REWARD | ...\n side: string; // BUY | SELL | \"\"\n size: number;\n usdcSize: number;\n conditionId: string;\n timestamp: number;\n title?: string;\n transactionHash?: string;\n asset?: string;\n};\n\nasync function pageActivitySince(\n wallet: string,\n cutoff: number,\n maxPages: number,\n): Promise<{ acts: Act[]; hitCutoff: boolean; rateLimited: boolean; pages: number }> {\n const acts: Act[] = [];\n const seen = new Set();\n let hitCutoff = false, rateLimited = false, pages = 0;\n for (let p = 0; p < maxPages; p++) {\n pages++;\n let r: Response;\n try {\n r = await fetch(`${DATA}/activity?user=${wallet}&limit=500&offset=${p * 500}`);\n } catch {\n rateLimited = true;\n break;\n }\n if (r.status === 429) { rateLimited = true; break; }\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as Act[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n for (const row of rows) {\n const k = `${row.transactionHash}-${row.asset}-${row.type}`;\n if (seen.has(k)) continue;\n seen.add(k);\n if (row.timestamp >= cutoff) acts.push(row);\n }\n // rows are newest-first; once the last row on a page predates the cutoff,\n // everything beyond is older too.\n if (rows[rows.length - 1].timestamp < cutoff) { hitCutoff = true; break; }\n if (rows.length < 500) break;\n await new Promise((res) => setTimeout(res, 120)); // be gentle on the API\n }\n return { acts, hitCutoff, rateLimited, pages };\n}\n\nasync function openConditions(wallet: string): Promise> {\n const open = new Set();\n for (let p = 0; p < 6; p++) {\n const r = await fetch(`${DATA}/positions?user=${wallet}&limit=500&offset=${p * 500}`);\n if (!r.ok) break;\n const rows = (await r.json()) as any[];\n if (!rows.length) break;\n for (const pos of rows) open.add(pos.conditionId);\n if (rows.length < 500) break;\n }\n return open;\n}\n\n// A market counts toward win/loss only when it is cleanly reconstructable in the\n// window: fully contained (first event >= cutoff so no buys were missed), closed\n// (no open position), and free of MERGE/SPLIT/CONVERSION events (whose share\n// accounting we don't model). Excluded markets are counted, not silently dropped.\nexport async function reconstruct(\n wallet: string,\n opts: { sinceDays?: number; maxPages?: number } = {},\n) {\n const sinceDays = opts.sinceDays ?? 45;\n const maxPages = opts.maxPages ?? 30;\n const cutoff = Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000) - sinceDays * 86400;\n\n const { acts, hitCutoff, rateLimited, pages } = await pageActivitySince(wallet, cutoff, maxPages);\n const openSet = await openConditions(wallet);\n\n type M = { buy: number; sell: number; redeem: number; first: number; last: number; complex: boolean; title: string };\n const mkt = new Map();\n for (const a of acts) {\n if (!a.conditionId) continue;\n let m = mkt.get(a.conditionId);\n if (!m) { m = { buy: 0, sell: 0, redeem: 0, first: a.timestamp, last: a.timestamp, complex: false, title: a.title || \"\" }; mkt.set(a.conditionId, m); }\n m.first = Math.min(m.first, a.timestamp);\n m.last = Math.max(m.last, a.timestamp);\n if (a.type === \"TRADE\" && a.side === \"BUY\") m.buy += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"TRADE\" && a.side === \"SELL\") m.sell += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"REDEEM\") m.redeem += a.usdcSize || 0;\n else if (a.type === \"MERGE\" || a.type === \"SPLIT\" || a.type === \"CONVERSION\") m.complex = true;\n }\n\n let wins = 0, losses = 0, scratch = 0, realized = 0;\n let openSkipped = 0, spanning = 0, complexSkipped = 0;\n const details: { title: string; realized: number; win: boolean }[] = [];\n for (const [cid, m] of mkt) {\n if (openSet.has(cid)) { openSkipped++; continue; }\n if (m.first < cutoff) { spanning++; continue; }\n if (m.complex) { complexSkipped++; continue; }\n const pnl = m.sell + m.redeem - m.buy;\n if (Math.abs(pnl) < 1) { scratch++; continue; }\n realized += pnl;\n const win = pnl > 0;\n if (win) wins++; else losses++;\n details.push({ title: m.title, realized: pnl, win });\n }\n const decided = wins + losses;\n details.sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.realized) - Math.abs(a.realized));\n return {\n wallet, sinceDays, decidedMarkets: decided, wins, losses, scratch,\n winRate: decided ? wins / decided : 0, realizedWindow: realized,\n openSkipped, spanning, complexSkipped,\n coverageNote: hitCutoff ? \"window fully covered\" : rateLimited ? \"TRUNCATED (rate-limited)\" : \"reached page cap\",\n eventsInWindow: acts.length, pages,\n topMarkets: details.slice(0, 5),\n };\n}\n","createdAt",["D",1789602393690],"branchVersion","branchId","f1c2802b-7a05-402a-8e59-0a360e509b53","id","7b98160e-759a-451e-ac63-bac16ce91a02","predmarket-monitor",["D",1789595019450],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Live Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage monitor (detect-only)","imageUrl","5a6bd924-f7ef-46ed-95a2-11ef633bd193","pinnedFileId","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-adfd5fd204b2","pinPreview",true,"pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","01a0ac28-941c-777f-a124-9765c1807b9c","tursoName","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02","tursoHostname","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02-val-town.aws-us-east-2.turso.io","tursoMeasuredAt",["D",1789596070409],"pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_100":99,"_108":104},"org",{"_100":99,"_101":102,"_103":104,"_18":55,"_105":106,"_107":25},"branch",{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":45,"_98":99},"isOwned",60,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","joaquinrubio","handle","displayName","Joaquin Rubio","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKu9e2FTAA0T_eao8qJSdToUv1ioGcVQUV0-zlGd4zBo0YpRA=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":270,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":271,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":272,"_84":273,"_86":274,"_88":25},"tree",[225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233,234,235],"files",[225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233,234,235],"counts",{"_215":63,"_216":149,"_217":63,"_218":219,"_220":221},"contents",[131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch","emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},{"_43":209,"_32":210,"_30":211,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":212,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":213,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":214},{"_43":201,"_32":202,"_30":203,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":204,"_147":59,"_38":205,"_13":63,"_33":206,"_35":207,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":208},{"_43":195,"_32":196,"_30":197,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":198,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":199,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":200},{"_43":189,"_32":190,"_30":191,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":192,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":193,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":194},{"_43":182,"_32":183,"_30":184,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":185,"_147":59,"_38":186,"_13":63,"_33":34,"_35":187,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":188},{"_43":177,"_32":178,"_30":57,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":169,"_147":59,"_38":179,"_13":149,"_33":150,"_35":180,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":181},{"_43":171,"_32":172,"_30":173,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":174,"_13":63,"_33":34,"_35":175,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":176},{"_43":167,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_147":59,"_38":168,"_13":169,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":170},{"_43":160,"_32":161,"_30":162,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":163,"_147":59,"_38":164,"_13":149,"_33":150,"_35":165,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":166},{"_43":154,"_32":155,"_30":156,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":157,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":158,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":159},{"_43":142,"_32":143,"_30":144,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":146,"_147":25,"_38":148,"_13":149,"_33":150,"_35":151,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_27":153},"340360ca-264a-4405-8d76-ba0ce1e93c01","winloss.tsx","f113fe64-b224-11f1-8d96-1607ee4eb77e","parentId",11,"latest",["D",1789600726237],1,"http","import { reconstruct } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\n\n// Politics shortlist surfaced by the efficiency + raw-PnL boards.\nconst SHORTLIST: { name: string; addr: string }[] = [\n { name: \"Theo4\", addr: \"0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839\" },\n { name: \"Fredi9999\", addr: \"0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf\" },\n { name: \"zxgngl\", addr: \"0xd235973291b2b75ff4070e9c0b01728c520b0f29\" },\n { name: \"Len9311238\", addr: \"0x78b9ac44a6d7d7a076c14e0ad518b301b63c6b76\" },\n { name: \"RepTrump\", addr: \"0x863134d00841b2e200492805a01e1e2f5defaa53\" },\n { name: \"BabaTrump\", addr: \"0x2bf64b86b64c315d879571b07a3b76629e467cd0\" },\n { name: \"PrincessCaro\", addr: \"0x8119010a6e589062aa03583bb3f39ca632d9f887\" },\n { name: \"BetTom42\", addr: \"0x885783760858e1bd5dd09a3c3f916cfa251ac270\" },\n];\n\nfunction money(n: number) {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n const pages = Math.min(20, Math.max(4, Number(url.searchParams.get(\"pages\") ?? \"12\")));\n const minDecided = Number(url.searchParams.get(\"min\") ?? \"40\");\n\n const rows = await Promise.all(\n SHORTLIST.map(async (w) => {\n try {\n const r = await reconstruct(w.addr, pages);\n const years: Record = {};\n for (const [y, v] of Object.entries(r.byYear)) {\n years[y] = `${v.n} trades, ${((v.wins / v.n) * 100).toFixed(0)}% win, ${money(v.realized)}`;\n }\n return {\n name: w.name,\n decided: r.decidedMarkets,\n wins: r.wins,\n losses: r.losses,\n scratch: r.scratch,\n winRatePct: +(r.winRate * 100).toFixed(1),\n realizedClosed: money(r.realizedClosed),\n byYear: years,\n capped: r.capped,\n };\n } catch (e) {\n return { name: w.name, error: String(e) };\n }\n }),\n );\n\n const ranked = rows\n .filter((r: any) => !r.error && r.decided >= minDecided)\n .sort((a: any, b: any) => b.winRatePct - a.winRatePct);\n\n return Response.json({\n params: { pages, minDecided },\n note:\n \"Win rate is per decided market (wins/(wins+losses)), realized cash = sells+redeems-buys on closed markets. \" +\n \"Fees/negRisk merges not modeled. Activity may be capped (see capped flag).\",\n leaderByWinRate: ranked[0]?.name ?? null,\n ranked,\n all: rows,\n });\n}\n","label",[143],"4b37291a-f047-460e-9713-84fb7c2c5057","style.css","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-b5799b58f170",["D",1789595019450],"/* CSS files add styling rules to your content */\n\nbody {\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n margin: 2em;\n}\n\nh1 {\n font-style: italic;\n color: #373fff;\n}",[155],"5cee6815-1091-4677-ad37-79652a513134","smartmoney_http.tsx","a4a49238-b21e-11f1-873d-1607ee4eb77e",8,["D",1789598025051],"import { analyze } from \"./smartmoney.ts\";\n\nfunction eff(r: { pnl: number; vol: number }) {\n return r.vol > 0 ? r.pnl / r.vol : 0;\n}\nfunction money(n: number) {\n const a = Math.abs(n);\n if (a >= 1e9) return `$${(n / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`;\n if (a >= 1e6) return `$${(n / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`;\n if (a >= 1e3) return `$${(n / 1e3).toFixed(1)}K`;\n return `$${n.toFixed(0)}`;\n}\n\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n const cats = [\"OVERALL\", \"POLITICS\"];\n const out: any = {};\n for (const c of cats) {\n const a = await analyze(c);\n const shape = (r: any) => ({\n name: r.userName || r.proxyWallet.slice(0, 10),\n wallet: r.proxyWallet,\n pnl: money(r.pnl),\n vol: money(r.vol),\n effPct: +(eff(r) * 100).toFixed(2),\n });\n out[c] = {\n pulled: a.count,\n byRawPnl: a.byPnl.slice(0, 8).map(shape),\n byEfficiency: a.byEff.slice(0, 8).map(shape),\n };\n }\n return Response.json(out);\n}\n",[161],"a26eaad1-02b3-4f2d-80e7-3ed5909e74a1",["D",1789602393690],3,[28],"053a1954-ce24-412f-a90b-5f8fc194f0d2","script.js","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-b3202819cddd",["D",1789595019450],"/* If you're feeling fancy you can add interactivity\n to your site with Javascript.\n Note: TypeScript won't work in this file. */\n\n// prints \"hi\" in the browser's dev tools console\nconsole.log(\"hi\");",[172],"e9be5703-5d68-41ca-ac63-2020a3413468","main.tsx",["D",1789595133283],"import { compute, renderDashboard } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Live dashboard. Recomputes fresh on each view (the page auto-refreshes),\n// so what you see is always current. Detect-only: reads public prices only.\nexport default async function (req: Request): Promise {\n try {\n const data = await compute(3);\n return new Response(renderDashboard(data, 60), {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n } catch (e) {\n return new Response(`

monitor error: ${String(e)}

`, {\n status: 500,\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" },\n });\n }\n}\n",[178],"7c479c6c-2ac5-49b5-9a73-7f27336a3447","lib.ts","e740e4c2-b217-11f1-aacd-1607ee4eb77e",2,["D",1789595115886],"// lib.ts — shared logic for the live prediction-market monitor (detect-only).\n// Fetches public Kalshi + Polymarket data, runs fee-aware detection and a\n// predicate/subject/year-aware cross-venue matcher, and renders the dashboard.\n// No account, no keys, no orders. Reads public prices only.\n\nconst STOP = new Set(\n \"a an the of to in on for and or is are be will who what which when where by at as this that it who's whos then do does did have has had not no s\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\n// Generic words shared across many markets — NOT distinctive. Includes role\n// words (prime minister, chancellor, ceo, ...) so \"next Prime Minister of X\"\n// only matches on the country/person, never on the shared role.\nconst GENERIC = new Set(\n \"democratic democrat republican gop presidential president vice vp nomination nominee nominated election elect electoral senate senator house congress governor gubernatorial mayor mayoral party primary race win wins winner won run runs running candidate candidacy next control chamber seat margin victory popular vote general ticket secretary attorney prime minister chancellor premier king queen pope ceo chairman chair leader head monarch state states us united 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 before after during term season game match team cup league\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\nconst WIN = new Set([\"win\", \"wins\", \"winner\", \"won\"]);\nconst RUN = new Set([\"run\", \"runs\", \"running\", \"candidate\", \"candidacy\", \"enter\", \"declare\", \"announce\", \"launch\"]);\nconst RETIRE = new Set([\"retire\", \"retires\", \"retirement\"]);\n// If a Polymarket \"will X WIN\" question is matched to Kalshi, the Kalshi side\n// must be a selection market (contain one of these), else it's a different bet.\nconst SELECTION = new Set([\"nominee\", \"nominated\", \"nomination\", \"winner\", \"win\", \"wins\", \"won\", \"election\", \"elected\"]);\n\nconst KALSHI_EVENTS = \"https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?limit=200&status=open&with_nested_markets=true\";\n\nfunction fnum(x: unknown): number {\n const n = parseFloat(String(x));\n return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : 0;\n}\nfunction fee(p: number): number {\n return p > 0 && p < 1 ? 0.07 * p * (1 - p) : 0;\n}\nfunction tok(text: string): string[] {\n return (text || \"\").toLowerCase().match(/[a-z0-9]+/g)?.filter((w) => !STOP.has(w) && w.length >= 2) ?? [];\n}\nfunction subjects(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => !GENERIC.has(w) && w.length >= 3 && !/^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction years(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => /^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction action(toks: string[]): string {\n const s = new Set(toks);\n const has = (g: Set) => [...g].some((w) => s.has(w));\n if (has(RETIRE)) return \"RETIRE\";\n if (has(WIN) && !has(RUN)) return \"WIN\";\n if (has(RUN) && !has(WIN)) return \"RUN\";\n return \"UNKNOWN\";\n}\nfunction inter(a: Set, b: Set): number {\n let n = 0;\n for (const x of a) if (b.has(x)) n++;\n return n;\n}\nfunction overlap(a: string[], b: string[]): number {\n const A = new Set(a), B = new Set(b);\n const m = Math.min(A.size, B.size);\n return m ? inter(A, B) / m : 0;\n}\n\nasync function getJson(url: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(url, { headers: { \"User-Agent\": \"predmarket-monitor/1.0\" } });\n if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`${url} -> ${r.status}`);\n return r.json();\n}\n\nexport interface KBinary {\n text: string; tok: string[]; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string;\n yes_ask: number; no_ask: number; vol: number;\n}\nexport interface NetLock { title: string; n: number; lock_net: number; vol: number; }\nexport interface PolyMkt { q: string; subj: Set; yr: Set; act: string; tok: string[]; yes: number; no: number; }\nexport interface Lead { q: string; k: string; score: number; net: number; side: string; }\n\nasync function fetchKalshi(pages: number): Promise<{ binaries: KBinary[]; netLocks: NetLock[] }> {\n const binaries: KBinary[] = [];\n const netLocks: NetLock[] = [];\n let cursor: string | undefined;\n for (let p = 0; p < pages; p++) {\n const data = await getJson(KALSHI_EVENTS + (cursor ? \"&cursor=\" + cursor : \"\"));\n for (const ev of data.events ?? []) {\n const title: string = ev.title ?? \"\";\n const me = Boolean(ev.mutually_exclusive);\n const outs: { ya: number; na: number }[] = [];\n for (const m of ev.markets ?? []) {\n const ya = fnum(m.yes_ask_dollars), na = fnum(m.no_ask_dollars), mv = fnum(m.volume_fp);\n if (me && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) outs.push({ ya, na });\n if (mv > 0 && ya > 0 && ya < 1 && na > 0 && na < 1) {\n const sub = m.yes_sub_title || m.subtitle || \"\";\n const text = (title + \" \" + sub).trim();\n const t = tok(text);\n binaries.push({ text, tok: t, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), yes_ask: ya, no_ask: na, vol: mv });\n }\n }\n if (me && outs.length >= 2) {\n const n = outs.length;\n const lockGross = (n - 1) - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + o.na, 0);\n const lockNet = lockGross - outs.reduce((s, o) => s + fee(o.na), 0);\n if (lockNet > 0) netLocks.push({ title, n, lock_net: lockNet, vol: ev.markets?.reduce((s: number, m: any) => s + fnum(m.volume_fp), 0) ?? 0 });\n }\n }\n cursor = data.cursor;\n if (!cursor) break;\n }\n netLocks.sort((a, b) => b.lock_net - a.lock_net);\n return { binaries, netLocks };\n}\n\nasync function fetchPoly(): Promise {\n const url = \"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=250&active=true&closed=false&order=volumeNum&ascending=false\";\n const rows = await getJson(url);\n const list = Array.isArray(rows) ? rows : (rows.data ?? []);\n const out: PolyMkt[] = [];\n for (const m of list) {\n let outs: string[], prices: number[];\n try { outs = JSON.parse(m.outcomes ?? \"[]\"); prices = (JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices ?? \"[]\") as string[]).map(Number); }\n catch { continue; }\n const low = outs.map((o) => String(o).toLowerCase());\n if (low.includes(\"yes\") && low.includes(\"no\") && prices.length === outs.length) {\n const q = m.question ?? \"\";\n const t = tok(q);\n out.push({ q, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), act: action(t), tok: t, yes: prices[low.indexOf(\"yes\")], no: prices[low.indexOf(\"no\")] });\n }\n }\n return out;\n}\n\nfunction crossMatch(binaries: KBinary[], poly: PolyMkt[]): Lead[] {\n const index = new Map();\n for (const k of binaries) for (const s of k.subj) (index.get(s) ?? index.set(s, []).get(s)!).push(k);\n const leads: Lead[] = [];\n for (const p of poly) {\n if (p.subj.size < 2) continue;\n const seen = new Set();\n const cands: KBinary[] = [];\n for (const s of p.subj) for (const k of index.get(s) ?? []) if (!seen.has(k)) { seen.add(k); cands.push(k); }\n let best: KBinary | null = null, bestScore = 0;\n for (const k of cands) {\n if (inter(p.subj, k.subj) < 2) continue; // >=2 shared distinctive words\n if ([\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(p.act) && [\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\"].includes(k.act) && p.act !== k.act) continue;\n if (p.yr.size && k.yr.size && inter(p.yr, k.yr) === 0) continue; // year conflict\n if (p.act === \"WIN\" && !k.tok.some((w) => SELECTION.has(w))) continue; // WIN must match a selection market\n const sc = overlap(p.tok, k.tok);\n if (sc > bestScore) { best = k; bestScore = sc; }\n }\n if (best && bestScore >= 0.5) {\n const netA = 1 - (best.yes_ask + p.no) - fee(best.yes_ask);\n const netB = 1 - (p.yes + best.no_ask) - fee(best.no_ask);\n const [net, side] = netA >= netB ? [netA, \"Kalshi YES + Poly NO\"] : [netB, \"Poly YES + Kalshi NO\"];\n leads.push({ q: p.q, k: best.text, score: bestScore, net, side });\n }\n }\n return leads.sort((a, b) => b.net - a.net);\n}\n\nexport interface MonitorData {\n stamp: string; kalshiCount: number; polyCount: number; netLocks: NetLock[]; leads: Lead[];\n}\n\nexport async function compute(pages = 4): Promise {\n const [{ binaries, netLocks }, poly] = await Promise.all([fetchKalshi(pages), fetchPoly()]);\n const leads = crossMatch(binaries, poly);\n return {\n stamp: new Date().toISOString().replace(\"T\", \" \").slice(0, 19) + \" UTC\",\n kalshiCount: binaries.length, polyCount: poly.length, netLocks, leads,\n };\n}\n\n// Leads worth an email alert: net edge above threshold. Conservative to avoid spam.\nexport function strongLeads(d: MonitorData, minNet = 0.03): Lead[] {\n return d.leads.filter((l) => l.net >= minNet);\n}\n\nconst esc = (s: string) => String(s).replace(/[&<>\"]/g, (c) => ({ \"&\": \"&\", \"<\": \"<\", \">\": \">\", '\"': \""\" }[c]!));\nconst c = (x: number) => (x >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + (x * 100).toFixed(1) + \"c\";\n\nexport function renderDashboard(d: MonitorData, refresh = 60): string {\n const posLeads = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const tiles = [\n [d.kalshiCount, \"Kalshi markets\"], [d.polyCount, \"Polymarket markets\"],\n [d.leads.length, \"cross-venue matches\"], [posLeads.length, \"net-positive leads\"],\n ].map(([n, l]) => `

${n}

${l}

`).join(\"\");\n\n const leadRows = d.leads.slice(0, 25).map((l) => {\n const cls = l.net > 0 ? \"pos\" : \"neg\";\n const pill = l.net > 0 ? 'lead' : \"\";\n return `${esc(l.q.slice(0, 62))}
${esc(l.k.slice(0, 62))}` +\n `${l.score.toFixed(2)}${c(l.net)}${esc(l.side)}${pill}`;\n }).join(\"\");\n const leadsHtml = d.leads.length\n ? `${leadRows}

Matched pair (Polymarket / Kalshi)	Match	Net edge	Construction

`\n : '

No confident cross-venue matches this cycle.

';\n\n const locksHtml = d.netLocks.length\n ? `${d.netLocks.slice(0, 10).map((m) => ``).join(\"\")}

Event	Outcomes	Net edge
${esc(m.title.slice(0, 60))}	${m.n}	${c(m.lock_net)}

`\n : '

No single-venue lock clears fees this cycle. Normal and expected.

';\n\n return `\n\n\nLive Prediction Market Monitor

Live Prediction Market Monitor

Detect-only, hosted on Val Town. Auto-refreshing every ${refresh}s. Last updated ${esc(d.stamp)}.

${tiles}

Cross-venue leads (Kalshi vs Polymarket)

Same-bet matches with a positive net-of-fees edge. UNVERIFIED leads: confirm identical resolution + date, use executable order-book prices, and check you can trade the Polymarket side as a US resident before trusting any of these.

\n${leadsHtml}

Single-venue locks (Kalshi, fee-aware)

Mutually-exclusive events whose sell-side edge survives estimated fees.

\n${locksHtml}

Live public-data monitor. It only reads; it never trades. Cross-venue edges use indicative Polymarket prices, not executable order-book asks.

`;\n}\n",[183],"6291d64b-3984-4a40-b237-f0e762ebdd04","index.html","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-aa3cf4df43c1",["D",1789595019450],"\n\n \n Hi there!\n \n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n\n \n \n \n \n

Hi there!

\n\n

\n I'm your cool new webpage. Made with Val Town!\n

\n \n",[190],"f8da3c4c-9065-4a06-824d-4611e8553309","favicon.svg","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a42e3b3ec658",["D",1789595019450],"",[196],"fbc1fba8-f6a4-436d-ab86-93e11db412d6","cron.ts","144328e0-b218-11f1-bc6e-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1789595191397],"interval","import { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\nimport { compute } from \"./lib.ts\";\n\n// Runs on a schedule (every 15 min on Val Town free tier) and records one row\n// per cycle, so over days we build the evidence base to answer the real\n// question: does a genuine net-positive edge ever appear, how large, how often?\n// Email alerts are intentionally NOT wired yet — they come with the automated\n// LLM verification step, so we only ever alert on verified leads, never the\n// residual false ones.\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n const d = await compute(5);\n await sqlite.execute(`CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS history (\n ts TEXT, kalshi INTEGER, poly INTEGER, matches INTEGER, pos INTEGER, best_net REAL\n )`);\n const pos = d.leads.filter((l) => l.net > 0);\n const best = d.leads.length ? d.leads[0].net : 0;\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: \"INSERT INTO history (ts, kalshi, poly, matches, pos, best_net) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)\",\n args: [d.stamp, d.kalshiCount, d.polyCount, d.leads.length, pos.length, best],\n });\n console.log(\n `stored ${d.stamp}: kalshi=${d.kalshiCount} poly=${d.polyCount} matches=${d.leads.length} pos=${pos.length} best=${(best * 100).toFixed(1)}c`,\n );\n}\n",[202],"f788f521-22ac-4929-be66-0cf60d3aef91","README.md","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-a11d788c48c7",["D",1789595019450],"# Welcome to Val Town\n\nVal Town is the simplest way to get code running in the cloud.\n\nThis is a basic HTML starter template.\n\n## Picking a starter\n\n| Starter | When to pick it |\n| --- | --- |\n| **[`basic-html-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/basic-html-starter)** *(you're here)* | Static HTML pages. Sprinkle of vanilla JS. No server-side rendering. |\n| [`hono-jsx-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/hono-jsx-starter) | Dynamic server-rendered HTML with JSX. API routes. No React, no SPA. |\n| [`react-hono-starter`](https://www.val.town/x/templates/react-hono-starter) | Client-side React SPA with a Hono API backend. |\n\n## Getting started\n\n1. Click `Remix` on this val to get a copy of it\n2. Click `main.tsx` to view the website\n3. Saves to any file will instantly deploy\n\n### ← main.tsx\n\nThis HTTP server hosts all of the other files in this val.\n\nTo view your site in a new tab, click on the `...` menu of `main.tsx` to copy\nyour live HTTP endpoint.\n\n### ← README.md\n\nThat's this file, where you can tell people what your cool website does and how\nyou built it.\n\n### ← index.html\n\nWhere you'll write the content of your website.\n\n### ← style.css\n\nCSS files add styling rules to your content.\n\n### ← script.js\n\nIf you're feeling fancy you can add interactivity to your site with JavaScript.\n\n### ← favicon.svg\n\nThe icon that shows up in the brower tab. Tip: AIs are pretty good at writing\nSVG favicons.\n\n---\n\nThis template was inspired by https://glitch.new/blank.\n",[210],"pulls","branches","forks","envVars",{"_222":63,"_224":63},"connections",{"_222":63,"_223":63},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_43":209,"_32":210,"_30":211,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":267,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":213,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":268,"_27":269},{"_43":201,"_32":202,"_30":203,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":204,"_147":59,"_38":264,"_13":63,"_33":206,"_35":207,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":265,"_27":266},{"_43":195,"_32":196,"_30":197,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":261,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":199,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":262,"_27":263},{"_43":189,"_32":190,"_30":191,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":258,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":193,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":259,"_27":260},{"_43":182,"_32":183,"_30":184,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":185,"_147":59,"_38":255,"_13":63,"_33":34,"_35":187,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":256,"_27":257},{"_43":177,"_32":178,"_30":57,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":169,"_147":59,"_38":252,"_13":149,"_33":150,"_35":180,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":253,"_27":254},{"_43":171,"_32":172,"_30":173,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":249,"_13":63,"_33":34,"_35":175,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":250,"_27":251},{"_43":167,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_147":59,"_38":246,"_13":169,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":247,"_27":248},{"_43":160,"_32":161,"_30":162,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":163,"_147":59,"_38":243,"_13":149,"_33":150,"_35":165,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":244,"_27":245},{"_43":154,"_32":155,"_30":156,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":149,"_147":59,"_38":240,"_13":63,"_33":20,"_35":158,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":241,"_27":242},{"_43":142,"_32":143,"_30":144,"_145":-5,"_41":42,"_40":146,"_147":25,"_38":236,"_13":149,"_33":150,"_35":151,"_24":25,"_152":-5,"_237":238,"_27":239},["D",1789600726237],"children",[],[143],["D",1789595019450],[],[155],["D",1789598025051],[],[161],["D",1789602393690],[],[28],["D",1789595019450],[],[172],["D",1789595133283],[],[178],["D",1789595115886],[],[183],["D",1789595019450],[],[190],["D",1789595019450],[],[196],["D",1789595191397],[],[202],["D",1789595019450],[],[210],["D",1789595019450],["D",1789596070409],{"_100":99,"_108":104},{"_100":99,"_101":102,"_103":104,"_18":55,"_105":106,"_107":25},{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":45,"_98":99},"ctx",{"_82":-5,"_128":308,"_309":310,"_311":312,"_313":25,"_314":25,"_315":25,"_316":59,"_317":-5,"_318":-7,"_319":-7,"_320":63,"_321":25,"_322":25,"_323":-5,"_324":25,"_325":25,"_326":25,"_327":-5},"ENV",{"_279":280,"_281":282,"_283":90,"_284":285,"_286":287,"_288":289,"_290":291,"_292":293,"_294":295,"_296":297,"_298":299,"_300":301,"_302":303,"_304":305,"_306":307},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","c73f21da490985bff19c279eb0e09db24d688e4f","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Diff · v12