Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n // Sort events by expected date\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n \n // Get unique years for navigation\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map(event => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n return (\n

\n {/* Year Navigation */}\n

Years

\n {years.map(year => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{' '}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {' '}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{' '}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n
\n {formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n
\n
\n \n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n
\n
\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\n// Smart internal conversion function with proper capitalization and punctuation\nfunction convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBePattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const willBeMatch = question.match(willBePattern);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i;\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(willHappenPattern);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n const [, subject] = willHappenMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X Y?\" -> \"X will Y\" (general case)\n const generalWillPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|fix|repair|break|damage|build|destroy|create|delete).+)\\??$/i;\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(generalWillPattern);\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearPattern = /^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const yearMatch = question.match(yearPattern);\n if (yearMatch) {\n const [, subject] = yearMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null; // Return null if no pattern matches\n}\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/timeline-events') {\n try {\n // Fetch more markets to get 25 total\n const response = await fetch('https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=150');\n const allMarkets = await response.json();\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No DATE markets found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n // Take first 25 open markets\n const first25Open = openMarkets.slice(0, 25);\n \n // For each market, fetch answers and calculate weighted average - IMPROVED VERSION\n const marketsWithPredictions = await Promise.all(\n first25Open.map(async (market) => {\n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n return null;\n }\n \n console.log(`\\nProcessing market: ${market.question}`);\n console.log(`Total answers: ${answers.length}`);\n \n // DEBUG: Log all answers\n answers.forEach((answer, i) => {\n const date = answer.midpoint ? new Date(answer.midpoint).toISOString().split('T')[0] : 'No date';\n console.log(` Answer ${i}: \"${answer.text}\" - ${(answer.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - ${date}`);\n });\n \n // Include ALL answers, even past ones, but only use future ones for calculation\n const futureAnswers = answers.filter(answer => {\n if (answer.midpoint) {\n return answer.midpoint > now;\n }\n // Include non-date answers like \"Never\" or \"After [date]\"\n return true;\n });\n \n console.log(`Future answers: ${futureAnswers.length}`);\n \n if (futureAnswers.length === 0) {\n console.log('No future answers, skipping market');\n return null;\n }\n \n // Calculate weighted average using only future answers\n let weightedSum = 0;\n let totalWeight = 0;\n \n futureAnswers.forEach(answer => {\n if (answer.midpoint && answer.midpoint > now) {\n weightedSum += answer.midpoint * answer.prob;\n totalWeight += answer.prob;\n console.log(` Using: ${answer.text} - ${(answer.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - ${new Date(answer.midpoint).toISOString().split('T')[0]}`);\n }\n });\n \n const weightedAverage = totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : null;\n \n if (!weightedAverage) {\n console.log('No valid weighted average calculated');\n return null;\n }\n \n console.log(`Calculated expected date: ${new Date(weightedAverage).toISOString().split('T')[0]}`);\n \n // Find top choice for confidence (from all answers)\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate: weightedAverage,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creatorName\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n })\n );\n \n // Filter out null results\n const validMarkets = marketsWithPredictions.filter(Boolean);\n \n console.log(`\\nValid markets found: ${validMarkets.length}`);\n \n if (validMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No valid markets with predictions found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Convert questions to statements - try internal conversion first\n const statements = [];\n const questionsNeedingAPI = [];\n const questionIndices = [];\n \n for (let i = 0; i < validMarkets.length; i++) {\n const question = validMarkets[i].question;\n const internalConversion = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n \n if (internalConversion) {\n statements[i] = internalConversion;\n console.log(`Internal conversion: \"${question}\" -> \"${internalConversion}\"`);\n } else {\n questionsNeedingAPI.push(question);\n questionIndices.push(i);\n }\n }\n \n // Helper function to clean up API responses\n const cleanApiResponse = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n \n // For questions that couldn't be converted internally, use the API\n if (questionsNeedingAPI.length > 0) {\n console.log(`Using API for ${questionsNeedingAPI.length} questions that couldn't be converted internally`);\n \n for (let i = 0; i < questionsNeedingAPI.length; i++) {\n const originalIndex = questionIndices[i];\n try {\n const singleResponse = await fetch('https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question: questionsNeedingAPI[i] })\n });\n \n if (singleResponse.ok) {\n const result = await singleResponse.json();\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n console.log(`API conversion: \"${questionsNeedingAPI[i]}\" -> \"${result.statement}\"`);\n } else {\n // Fallback: simple conversion\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n \n // Rate limiting delay\n if (i < questionsNeedingAPI.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 1200));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question ${i}:`, err);\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Combine the data\n const timelineEvents: TimelineEvent[] = validMarkets.map((market, index) => {\n const fallback = market.question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = fallback.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + fallback.slice(1).replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[index] || cleanedFallback,\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator\n };\n });\n \n return new Response(JSON.stringify(timelineEvents), {\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n \n } catch (error) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: error.message }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}\n\nconst css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #6366f1;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #6366f1;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n padding: 50px 20px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n max-width: 1000px;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n /* TIMELINE STYLING - FIXED ALIGNMENT AND COLORS */\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n list-style: none;\n }\n\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n left: 0;\n width: 3px;\n height: 100%;\n background: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 180px;\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n line-height: 0.9;\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n /* Fixed alignment and removed white outline */\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before,\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::after {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n top: 50%;\n left: -180px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 120px;\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n /* Fixed dot positioning - centered on the line */\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::after {\n top: 50%;\n left: -66px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 15px;\n height: 15px;\n border-radius: 50%;\n /* Removed white border - no more white outline */\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event time {\n display: inline-block;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .details {\n margin-top: 15px;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #6366f1;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #6366f1;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n /* Mobile responsive - copied from reference */\n @media (max-width: 700px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 40px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n display: none;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::after {\n left: -51px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n \n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n }\n`;\n","deleted","label",[123],"pulls","branches",6,"forks",1,"envVars",{"_148":42,"_150":42},"connections",{"_148":42,"_149":42},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_18":122,"_20":123,"_124":125,"_126":-5,"_127":71,"_128":69,"_129":38,"_22":152,"_68":131,"_132":133,"_134":135,"_136":26,"_137":-5,"_153":154,"_91":155},["D",1753472925619],"children",[],[123],["D",1753454022202],["D",1789527031073],{"_16":17,"_89":85},{"_16":17,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_33":34,"_86":87,"_88":26},{"_68":69,"_20":70,"_18":71,"_72":19,"_73":74,"_75":76,"_77":28,"_78":19,"_79":44,"_80":21,"_81":17},"ctx",{"_61":-5,"_111":194,"_195":196,"_197":198,"_199":26,"_200":26,"_201":26,"_202":38,"_203":-5,"_204":-7,"_205":-7,"_206":42,"_207":26,"_208":26,"_209":-5,"_210":26,"_211":26,"_212":26,"_213":-5},"ENV",{"_165":166,"_167":168,"_169":117,"_170":171,"_172":173,"_174":175,"_176":177,"_178":179,"_180":181,"_182":183,"_184":185,"_186":187,"_188":189,"_190":191,"_192":193},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","811aa22498c9b0b5a47e8d778de579cdb990f332","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

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