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🕒 Manifold Prediction Timeline

\n {timeline.length === 0 ? (\n

\n ) : (\n

\n
{event.date}
\n
{event.statement}
\n \n 🔗 View Market\n \n

\n )}\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")!).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") client();\n\nexport default async function server(req: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(req.url);\n if (url.pathname === \"/api/timeline\") {\n const raw = await fetch(\n \"https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=10\"\n ).then((r) => r.json());\n\n const open = raw.filter(\n (m: any) => !m.isResolved && m.closeTime > Date.now()\n ).slice(0, 5);\n\n const results = await Promise.all(\n open.map(async (m: any) => {\n const answers = await fetch(\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${m.id}/answers`\n ).then((r) => r.json());\n if (!answers.length) return null;\n\n const avg =\n answers.reduce((sum: number, a: any) => sum + a.midpoint * a.prob, 0) /\n answers.reduce((sum: number, a: any) => sum + a.prob, 0);\n\n const statement = await fetch(\n `https://dcm31--question_to_statement_api.web.val.run/api?q=${encodeURIComponent(\n m.question\n )}`\n )\n .then((r) => r.json())\n .then((j) => j.statement || m.question);\n\n return {\n id: m.id,\n url: m.url,\n statement,\n date: new Date(avg).toLocaleDateString(),\n };\n })\n );\n\n return Response.json(results.filter(Boolean));\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n\n \n \n \n Timeline\n \n \n \n \n \n

\n \n`, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" }\n });\n}","label","children",[70],"contentHash","cf47b8e01c87951108e30fef3d987e031e7f4f73eec4ddab5b3c78f0264bdd88","9007eefe-6965-11f0-8b3b-0224a6c84d84","6b727d94-6964-11f0-bad0-0224a6c84d84",["D",1753454537739],"/** @jsxImportSource https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0 */\nimport React, { useState, useEffect } from \"https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0\";\nimport { createRoot } from \"https://esm.sh/react-dom@18.2.0/client\";\n\nfunction App() {\n const [markets, setMarkets] = useState([]);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n fetchOpenDateMarkets();\n }, []);\n\n const fetchOpenDateMarkets = async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/open-date-markets-with-predictions');\n const data = await response.json();\n setMarkets(data);\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err.message);\n } finally {\n setLoading(false);\n }\n };\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'long',\n day: 'numeric'\n });\n };\n\n const isMarketOpen = (market) => {\n const now = Date.now();\n return !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now;\n };\n\n if (loading) return

Loading open DATE markets...

;\n if (error) return

Error: {error}

;\n if (markets.length === 0) return

No open DATE markets found

;\n\n return (\n

📅 Open Manifold DATE Markets

First 5 active DATE prediction markets with weighted expected dates

\n \n

\n {markets.map((market, index) => (\n

\n #{index + 1}\n \n {isMarketOpen(market) ? '🟢 Open' : '🔴 Closed'}\n \n

\n \n

{market.question}

\n \n {market.prediction && (\n

📊 Market Prediction

\n Expected Date: {formatDate(market.prediction.weightedAverage)}\n

\n Most likely: {market.prediction.topChoice.text}\n {(market.prediction.topChoice.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%\n

\n \n

View all probabilities

\n {market.prediction.allAnswers.map((answer, i) => (\n

\n {answer.text}\n {(answer.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%\n

\n ))}\n

\n )}\n \n

Betting Closes: {formatDate(market.closeTime)}

Volume: ${Math.round(market.volume).toLocaleString()}

Unique Bettors: {market.uniqueBettorCount}

Creator: {market.creatorName} (@{market.creatorUsername})

\n \n

\n \n 📊 View & Bet on Manifold\n \n

\n ))}\n

\n \n

Expected dates are calculated using a weighted average of all date options based on their current market probabilities. This gives a more accurate prediction than just showing the most likely option.

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/open-date-markets-with-predictions') {\n try {\n // Fetch more markets to filter for open ones\n const response = await fetch('https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=50');\n const allMarkets = await response.json();\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No DATE markets found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets (not resolved and closeTime in future)\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n // Take first 5 open markets\n const first5Open = openMarkets.slice(0, 5);\n \n // For each market, fetch the answers to calculate weighted average\n const marketsWithPredictions = await Promise.all(\n first5Open.map(async (market) => {\n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n return { ...market, prediction: null };\n }\n \n // Calculate weighted average of midpoints\n let weightedSum = 0;\n let totalWeight = 0;\n \n answers.forEach(answer => {\n const weight = answer.prob;\n const midpoint = answer.midpoint;\n \n weightedSum += midpoint * weight;\n totalWeight += weight;\n });\n \n const weightedAverage = totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : null;\n \n // Find the answer with highest probability for \"most likely\"\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n // Sort answers by probability for display\n const sortedAnswers = [...answers].sort((a, b) => b.prob - a.prob);\n \n return {\n ...market,\n prediction: {\n weightedAverage: weightedAverage,\n topChoice: {\n text: topAnswer.text,\n prob: topAnswer.prob\n },\n allAnswers: sortedAnswers\n }\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error fetching answers for market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return { ...market, prediction: null };\n }\n })\n );\n \n return new Response(JSON.stringify(marketsWithPredictions), {\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n } catch (error) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: error.message }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n Open Manifold DATE Markets with Weighted Predictions\n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}\n\nconst css = `\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n margin: 0;\n padding: 20px;\n background-color: #f5f5f5;\n }\n\n .container {\n max-width: 1200px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n background: white;\n border-radius: 10px;\n padding: 30px;\n box-shadow: 0 2px 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);\n }\n\n h1 {\n color: #333;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .subtitle {\n text-align: center;\n color: #666;\n margin-bottom: 30px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n\n .markets-grid {\n display: grid;\n grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(400px, 1fr));\n gap: 20px;\n margin-bottom: 30px;\n }\n\n .market-card {\n border: 1px solid #ddd;\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 20px;\n background: #fafafa;\n }\n\n .market-header {\n display: flex;\n justify-content: space-between;\n align-items: center;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n }\n\n .market-number {\n background: #2563eb;\n color: white;\n padding: 4px 8px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 600;\n }\n\n .status-badge {\n padding: 4px 8px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n font-weight: 600;\n }\n\n .status-badge.open {\n background: #dcfce7;\n color: #166534;\n }\n\n .status-badge.closed {\n background: #fecaca;\n color: #991b1b;\n }\n\n .market-card h2 {\n margin: 0 0 15px 0;\n color: #2563eb;\n font-size: 1.2em;\n line-height: 1.3;\n }\n\n .prediction-box {\n background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e0f2fe 0%, #f0f9ff 100%);\n border: 1px solid #0ea5e9;\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 15px;\n margin: 15px 0;\n }\n\n .prediction-box h3 {\n margin: 0 0 10px 0;\n color: #0369a1;\n font-size: 1em;\n }\n\n .expected-date-main {\n background: #0ea5e9;\n color: white;\n padding: 10px;\n border-radius: 6px;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n text-align: center;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n\n .top-prediction {\n display: flex;\n justify-content: space-between;\n align-items: center;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n color: #0369a1;\n }\n\n .prediction-prob {\n background: #0ea5e9;\n color: white;\n padding: 2px 8px;\n border-radius: 12px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n font-weight: 600;\n }\n\n .probability-breakdown {\n margin-top: 10px;\n }\n\n .probability-breakdown summary {\n cursor: pointer;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n color: #0369a1;\n margin-bottom: 5px;\n }\n\n .probability-breakdown summary:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .prob-list {\n background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.7);\n border-radius: 4px;\n padding: 8px;\n margin-top: 5px;\n }\n\n .prob-item {\n display: flex;\n justify-content: space-between;\n align-items: center;\n padding: 2px 0;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .prob-text {\n color: #374151;\n }\n\n .prob-percent {\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #0369a1;\n }\n\n .market-details {\n background: white;\n padding: 15px;\n border-radius: 6px;\n margin: 15px 0;\n border: 1px solid #e5e5e5;\n }\n\n .market-details p {\n margin: 8px 0;\n font-size: 0.95em;\n }\n\n .market-link {\n display: inline-block;\n background: #2563eb;\n color: white;\n padding: 10px 16px;\n text-decoration: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-weight: 500;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n transition: background 0.2s;\n }\n\n .market-link:hover {\n background: #1d4ed8;\n }\n\n .loading, .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n\n .error {\n color: #dc2626;\n }\n\n .info {\n background: #eff6ff;\n border-left: 4px solid #2563eb;\n padding: 15px;\n border-radius: 0 6px 6px 0;\n margin-top: 20px;\n }\n\n .info em {\n color: #374151;\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 768px) {\n .markets-grid {\n grid-template-columns: 1fr;\n }\n \n .container {\n padding: 20px;\n margin: 10px;\n }\n }\n`;",[70],"356fcb796f46eb0531c3564d8becf3265379b138831951535e439480019236d2",["D",1753454022202],"legacyEnvVars","httpPrivacy","description","a timeline of date markets on 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Hindex.ts+85-421