[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_171":172,"_173":174},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_102":101,"_32":45,"_111":90,"_27":112,"_13":14,"_113":-5,"_11":114,"_115":116,"_117":118,"_119":120,"_121":122,"_20":-5,"_123":-5,"_124":125,"_126":25,"_127":128,"_129":59,"_130":-5,"_131":-5,"_132":133},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":46,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":59,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":71,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_86":87,"_88":25},"version",9,"changes",[19],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_20":21,"_22":23,"_24":25,"_26":25,"_27":28,"_29":28},"file",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_38":39,"_40":14,"_41":42,"_24":25},"previous",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":36},"deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","index.ts","latestPath","fileId","0198423b-3552-765c-b25c-ae470a631723","name","fileType","http","content","/** @jsxImportSource https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0 */\nimport React, { useState, useEffect } from \"https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0\";\nimport { createRoot } from \"https://esm.sh/react-dom@18.2.0/client\";\n\ninterface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n}\n\nfunction App() {\n const [events, setEvents] = useState([]);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n const [activeYear, setActiveYear] = useState(null);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n fetchTimelineEvents();\n }, []);\n\n const fetchTimelineEvents = async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/timeline-events');\n const data = await response.json();\n setEvents(data);\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'Failed to load timeline');\n } finally {\n setLoading(false);\n }\n };\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'short',\n day: 'numeric'\n });\n };\n\n const formatYear = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).getFullYear();\n };\n\n const scrollToYear = (year: number) => {\n const element = document.getElementById(`year-${year}`);\n if (element) {\n element.scrollIntoView({ behavior: 'smooth', block: 'center' });\n setActiveYear(year);\n }\n };\n\n if (loading) {\n return (\n

Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n // Sort events by expected date\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n \n // Get unique years for navigation\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map(event => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n return (\n

\n {/* Year Navigation */}\n

Years

\n {years.map(year => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{' '}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {' '}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{' '}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {sortedEvents.map((event, index) => {\n const year = formatYear(event.expectedDate);\n const isFirstOfYear = index === 0 || formatYear(sortedEvents[index - 1].expectedDate) !== year;\n \n return (\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n

{year}

\n )}\n \n

\n {formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n

\n \n

\n \n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n

\n );\n })}\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\n// Smart internal conversion function with proper capitalization and punctuation\nfunction convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBePattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const willBeMatch = question.match(willBePattern);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i;\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(willHappenPattern);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n const [, subject] = willHappenMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X Y?\" -> \"X will Y\" (general case)\n const generalWillPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|fix|repair|break|damage|build|destroy|create|delete).+)\\??$/i;\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(generalWillPattern);\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearPattern = /^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const yearMatch = question.match(yearPattern);\n if (yearMatch) {\n const [, subject] = yearMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null; // Return null if no pattern matches\n}\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/timeline-events') {\n try {\n // Fetch more markets to get 25 total\n const response = await fetch('https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=150');\n const allMarkets = await response.json();\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No DATE markets found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n // Take first 25 open markets\n const first25Open = openMarkets.slice(0, 25);\n \n // For each market, fetch answers and calculate weighted average - FIXED VERSION\n const marketsWithPredictions = await Promise.all(\n first25Open.map(async (market) => {\n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n return null;\n }\n \n // FIXED: Only include future dates in calculation (filter out past dates)\n const futureAnswers = answers.filter(answer => {\n // If the answer has a midpoint, check if it's in the future\n if (answer.midpoint) {\n return answer.midpoint > now;\n }\n // If no midpoint, include it (might be \"Never\" option, etc.)\n return true;\n });\n \n if (futureAnswers.length === 0) {\n // If no future answers, skip this market\n return null;\n }\n \n // Renormalize probabilities for future answers only\n const totalFutureProb = futureAnswers.reduce((sum, answer) => sum + answer.prob, 0);\n \n if (totalFutureProb === 0) {\n return null;\n }\n \n // Calculate weighted average using only future answers with renormalized probabilities\n let weightedSum = 0;\n let totalWeight = 0;\n \n futureAnswers.forEach(answer => {\n if (answer.midpoint) {\n const normalizedWeight = answer.prob / totalFutureProb; // Renormalize\n const midpoint = answer.midpoint;\n \n weightedSum += midpoint * normalizedWeight;\n totalWeight += normalizedWeight;\n }\n });\n \n const weightedAverage = totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : null;\n if (!weightedAverage) return null;\n \n // Find top choice for confidence (from original answers, not just future ones)\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate: weightedAverage,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creatorName\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n })\n );\n \n // Filter out null results\n const validMarkets = marketsWithPredictions.filter(Boolean);\n \n if (validMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No valid markets with predictions found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Convert questions to statements - try internal conversion first\n const statements = [];\n const questionsNeedingAPI = [];\n const questionIndices = [];\n \n for (let i = 0; i < validMarkets.length; i++) {\n const question = validMarkets[i].question;\n const internalConversion = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n \n if (internalConversion) {\n statements[i] = internalConversion;\n console.log(`Internal conversion: \"${question}\" -> \"${internalConversion}\"`);\n } else {\n questionsNeedingAPI.push(question);\n questionIndices.push(i);\n }\n }\n \n // Helper function to clean up API responses\n const cleanApiResponse = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n \n // For questions that couldn't be converted internally, use the API\n if (questionsNeedingAPI.length > 0) {\n console.log(`Using API for ${questionsNeedingAPI.length} questions that couldn't be converted internally`);\n \n for (let i = 0; i < questionsNeedingAPI.length; i++) {\n const originalIndex = questionIndices[i];\n try {\n const singleResponse = await fetch('https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question: questionsNeedingAPI[i] })\n });\n \n if (singleResponse.ok) {\n const result = await singleResponse.json();\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n console.log(`API conversion: \"${questionsNeedingAPI[i]}\" -> \"${result.statement}\"`);\n } else {\n // Fallback: simple conversion\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n \n // Rate limiting delay\n if (i < questionsNeedingAPI.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 1200));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question ${i}:`, err);\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Combine the data\n const timelineEvents: TimelineEvent[] = validMarkets.map((market, index) => {\n const fallback = market.question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = fallback.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + fallback.slice(1).replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[index] || cleanedFallback,\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator\n };\n });\n \n return new Response(JSON.stringify(timelineEvents), {\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n \n } catch (error) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: error.message }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}\n\nconst css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #3b82f6;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #3b82f6;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 180px;\n }\n\n /* FIXED: Main timeline positioned consistently */\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: '';\n position: absolute;\n left: 81px; /* Centered with dot */\n top: 0;\n bottom: 0;\n width: 3px;\n background-color: #cbd5e1;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n position: relative;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n }\n\n /* FIXED: Year line connects to main timeline */\n .year-line {\n position: absolute;\n left: -81px; /* Aligns with main timeline */\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .year-label {\n font-size: 1.5em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #3b82f6;\n padding-left: 20px;\n }\n\n .timeline-event {\n margin-bottom: 30px;\n }\n\n .event-row {\n display: flex;\n align-items: flex-start;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .event-date {\n position: absolute;\n left: -180px;\n width: 100px;\n text-align: right;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n color: #64748b;\n font-weight: 500;\n top: 8px; /* FIXED: Aligns with dot center */\n }\n\n .event-marker {\n position: absolute;\n left: -81px; /* FIXED: Centered on timeline */\n z-index: 2;\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n top: 8px; /* FIXED: Consistent positioning */\n }\n\n .event-dot {\n width: 12px;\n height: 12px;\n background-color: #3b82f6;\n border: 3px solid #f8fafc;\n border-radius: 50%;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px #cbd5e1;\n }\n\n /* FIXED: Horizontal connector from dot to content */\n .event-connector {\n width: 30px;\n height: 2px;\n background-color: #cbd5e1;\n margin-left: 6px; /* Small gap from dot */\n }\n\n .event-content {\n flex: 1;\n padding-left: 20px; /* Space after connector */\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #3b82f6;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n /* Mobile Styles - FIXED */\n @media (max-width: 768px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n \n .timeline-track {\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track::before {\n left: 20px;\n }\n \n .event-row {\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: flex-start;\n }\n \n /* FIXED: Mobile date positioning */\n .event-date {\n position: static;\n text-align: left;\n margin-bottom: 8px;\n width: auto;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #3b82f6;\n font-weight: 600;\n margin-left: 40px; /* Align with content */\n top: auto;\n }\n \n /* FIXED: Mobile marker positioning - aligns with content not date */\n .event-marker {\n left: -20px;\n top: 30px; /* Below the date */\n }\n \n .event-content {\n padding-left: 40px;\n width: 100%;\n }\n \n .year-separator {\n margin-left: -40px;\n }\n \n .year-line {\n left: -20px;\n width: 30px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n \n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1em;\n }\n \n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n }\n`;","/** @jsxImportSource https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0 */\nimport React, { useState, useEffect } from \"https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0\";\nimport { createRoot } from \"https://esm.sh/react-dom@18.2.0/client\";\n\ninterface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n}\n\nfunction App() {\n const [events, setEvents] = useState([]);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n const [activeYear, setActiveYear] = useState(null);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n fetchTimelineEvents();\n }, []);\n\n const fetchTimelineEvents = async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/timeline-events');\n const data = await response.json();\n setEvents(data);\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'Failed to load timeline');\n } finally {\n setLoading(false);\n }\n };\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'short',\n day: 'numeric'\n });\n };\n\n const formatYear = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).getFullYear();\n };\n\n const scrollToYear = (year: number) => {\n const element = document.getElementById(`year-${year}`);\n if (element) {\n element.scrollIntoView({ behavior: 'smooth', block: 'center' });\n setActiveYear(year);\n }\n };\n\n if (loading) {\n return (\n

Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

\n {/* Year Navigation */}\n

Years

\n {years.map(year => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{' '}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {' '}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{' '}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n
\n {formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n
\n
\n \n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n
\n
\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\n// Smart internal conversion function with proper capitalization and punctuation\nfunction convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBePattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const willBeMatch = question.match(willBePattern);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i;\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(willHappenPattern);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n const [, subject] = willHappenMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X Y?\" -> \"X will Y\" (general case)\n const generalWillPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|fix|repair|break|damage|build|destroy|create|delete).+)\\??$/i;\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(generalWillPattern);\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearPattern = /^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const yearMatch = question.match(yearPattern);\n if (yearMatch) {\n const [, subject] = yearMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null; // Return null if no pattern matches\n}\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/timeline-events') {\n try {\n // Fetch more markets to get 25 total\n const response = await fetch('https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=150');\n const allMarkets = await response.json();\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No DATE markets found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n // Take first 25 open markets\n const first25Open = openMarkets.slice(0, 25);\n \n // For each market, fetch answers and calculate weighted average - IMPROVED VERSION\n const marketsWithPredictions = await Promise.all(\n first25Open.map(async (market) => {\n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n return null;\n }\n \n console.log(`\\nProcessing market: ${market.question}`);\n console.log(`Total answers: ${answers.length}`);\n \n // DEBUG: Log all answers\n answers.forEach((answer, i) => {\n const date = answer.midpoint ? new Date(answer.midpoint).toISOString().split('T')[0] : 'No date';\n console.log(` Answer ${i}: \"${answer.text}\" - ${(answer.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - ${date}`);\n });\n \n // Include ALL answers, even past ones, but only use future ones for calculation\n const futureAnswers = answers.filter(answer => {\n if (answer.midpoint) {\n return answer.midpoint > now;\n }\n // Include non-date answers like \"Never\" or \"After [date]\"\n return true;\n });\n \n console.log(`Future answers: ${futureAnswers.length}`);\n \n if (futureAnswers.length === 0) {\n console.log('No future answers, skipping market');\n return null;\n }\n \n // Calculate weighted average using only future answers\n let weightedSum = 0;\n let totalWeight = 0;\n \n futureAnswers.forEach(answer => {\n if (answer.midpoint && answer.midpoint > now) {\n weightedSum += answer.midpoint * answer.prob;\n totalWeight += answer.prob;\n console.log(` Using: ${answer.text} - ${(answer.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - ${new Date(answer.midpoint).toISOString().split('T')[0]}`);\n }\n });\n \n const weightedAverage = totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : null;\n \n if (!weightedAverage) {\n console.log('No valid weighted average calculated');\n return null;\n }\n \n console.log(`Calculated expected date: ${new Date(weightedAverage).toISOString().split('T')[0]}`);\n \n // Find top choice for confidence (from all answers)\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate: weightedAverage,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creatorName\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n })\n );\n \n // Filter out null results\n const validMarkets = marketsWithPredictions.filter(Boolean);\n \n console.log(`\\nValid markets found: ${validMarkets.length}`);\n \n if (validMarkets.length === 0) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'No valid markets with predictions found' }), {\n status: 404,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Convert questions to statements - try internal conversion first\n const statements = [];\n const questionsNeedingAPI = [];\n const questionIndices = [];\n \n for (let i = 0; i < validMarkets.length; i++) {\n const question = validMarkets[i].question;\n const internalConversion = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n \n if (internalConversion) {\n statements[i] = internalConversion;\n console.log(`Internal conversion: \"${question}\" -> \"${internalConversion}\"`);\n } else {\n questionsNeedingAPI.push(question);\n questionIndices.push(i);\n }\n }\n \n // Helper function to clean up API responses\n const cleanApiResponse = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n \n // For questions that couldn't be converted internally, use the API\n if (questionsNeedingAPI.length > 0) {\n console.log(`Using API for ${questionsNeedingAPI.length} questions that couldn't be converted internally`);\n \n for (let i = 0; i < questionsNeedingAPI.length; i++) {\n const originalIndex = questionIndices[i];\n try {\n const singleResponse = await fetch('https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question: questionsNeedingAPI[i] })\n });\n \n if (singleResponse.ok) {\n const result = await singleResponse.json();\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n console.log(`API conversion: \"${questionsNeedingAPI[i]}\" -> \"${result.statement}\"`);\n } else {\n // Fallback: simple conversion\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n \n // Rate limiting delay\n if (i < questionsNeedingAPI.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 1200));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question ${i}:`, err);\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Combine the data\n const timelineEvents: TimelineEvent[] = validMarkets.map((market, index) => {\n const fallback = market.question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = fallback.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + fallback.slice(1).replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[index] || cleanedFallback,\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator\n };\n });\n \n return new Response(JSON.stringify(timelineEvents), {\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n \n } catch (error) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: error.message }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}\n\nconst css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #3b82f6;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #3b82f6;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n padding: 50px 20px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n max-width: 1000px;\n }\n\n /* PERFECT ALIGNMENT using the reference technique */\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n list-style: none;\n }\n\n /* Main vertical timeline */\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n left: 0;\n width: 3px;\n height: 100%;\n background-color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .timeline-event {\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n }\n\n .event-content {\n padding: 20px 200px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n /* Date positioning using the reference technique */\n .event-date {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n }\n\n /* Key alignment technique: negative positioning from content */\n .event-date::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #3b82f6;\n top: 50%;\n left: -200px; /* Negative positioning from text */\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 120px; /* Fixed width to reach timeline */\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n .event-date::after {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #3b82f6;\n top: calc(50% - 8px);\n left: -95px; /* Positioned on the timeline */\n width: 15px;\n height: 15px;\n border-radius: 50%;\n border: 3px solid #f8fafc;\n }\n\n .event-details {\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #3b82f6;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n padding-left: 40px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: -3px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #3b82f6;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #3b82f6;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n /* Mobile Styles */\n @media (max-width: 768px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n \n .event-content {\n padding: 20px 40px;\n }\n \n .event-date::before {\n display: none; /* Hide horizontal line on mobile */\n }\n \n .event-date::after {\n left: -60px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n \n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n }\n`;","createdAt",["D",1753462471013],"branchVersion","branchId","3c5290a4-696d-11f0-9970-0224a6c84d84","id","5cbdcc4a-6964-11f0-9ae6-0224a6c84d84","when",["D",1753454022202],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","a timeline of date markets on manifold.markets","imageUrl","9319c175-2593-4f88-ba21-04f2ef7b1c28","pinnedFileId","6b727d94-6964-11f0-bad0-0224a6c84d84","pinPreview",true,"pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","d663a026-6449-42f6-9156-1d4a2d64d38c","tursoName","5cbdcc4a696411f09ae60224a6c84d84","tursoHostname","5cbdcc4a696411f09ae60224a6c84d84-val-town.aws-us-east-2.turso.io","tursoMeasuredAt",["D",1789527031073],"pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_102":101,"_110":106},"org",{"_102":101,"_103":104,"_105":106,"_18":55,"_107":108,"_109":25},"branch",{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":93,"_94":95,"_96":50,"_97":44,"_98":65,"_99":45,"_100":101},"isOwned",12,"timeline","projectId","forkedBranchId","5cbe35ae-6964-11f0-9ae6-0224a6c84d84","forkedBranchVersion",5,"forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","dcm31","handle","displayName","Charlie","avatar","https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/3e904faa-3764-4629-c475-f561a49b0000/square512?exp=1789592399&sig=88bcaa4ca5c91b3d37bd9f9e2265f250b254a647312a9ccca82d0aeb36af01f0","tier","pro","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","branchName","","adoptOrgId",{"_43":44,"_32":45,"_38":166,"_47":-5,"_48":25,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_18":55,"_56":57,"_58":59,"_60":59,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":167,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":168,"_84":169,"_86":170,"_88":25},"tree",[161],"files",[161],"counts",{"_149":63,"_150":151,"_152":153,"_154":155,"_156":157},"contents",[141],"upstreamProject","upstreamBranch",{"_43":93,"_38":134,"_135":136,"_32":137,"_91":44,"_13":138,"_92":-5,"_94":-5,"_139":140,"_47":-5,"_88":25,"_49":50,"_100":101,"_64":65,"_99":45},"emptyEnvVars","flags",[],"hasHttpFiles","grants","orgs","customDomains",{},["D",1753454022202],"updatedAt",["D",1784124994783],"main",45,"lockfileKey","1784124995001-esm.town_v_dcm31_when@45-main",{"_43":142,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_144":25,"_38":145,"_13":146,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_147":-5,"_27":148},"08a0cf04-6978-11f0-ac39-0224a6c84d84","parentId","latest",["D",1753462471013],8,"label",[28],"pulls","branches",6,"forks",1,"envVars",{"_158":63,"_160":63},"connections",{"_158":63,"_159":63},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_43":142,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_143":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_144":25,"_38":162,"_13":146,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_147":-5,"_163":164,"_27":165},["D",1753462471013],"children",[],[28],["D",1753454022202],["D",1789527031073],{"_102":101,"_110":106},{"_102":101,"_103":104,"_105":106,"_18":55,"_107":108,"_109":25},{"_13":89,"_32":90,"_43":42,"_91":44,"_92":93,"_94":95,"_96":50,"_97":44,"_98":65,"_99":45,"_100":101},"ctx",{"_82":-5,"_131":204,"_205":206,"_207":208,"_209":25,"_210":25,"_211":25,"_212":59,"_213":-5,"_214":-7,"_215":-7,"_216":63,"_217":25,"_218":25,"_219":-5,"_220":25,"_221":25,"_222":25,"_223":-5},"ENV",{"_175":176,"_177":178,"_179":137,"_180":181,"_182":183,"_184":185,"_186":187,"_188":189,"_190":191,"_192":193,"_194":195,"_196":197,"_198":199,"_200":201,"_202":203},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","5015b8df46402d8bba4f485ecc37aec202b0e06b","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

Diff · v9