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Loading timeline...

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Error: {error}

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No timeline events found

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Years

\n {years.map((year) => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{\" \"}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {\" \"}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{\" \"}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n
\n 📅 Today · {formatDate(today)}\n \n
\n
\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n\n
\n {event.emojis &&
{event.emojis}
}\n\n
\n \n {isTodayEvent ? \"TODAY\" : formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n {event.emojis && {event.emojis}}\n \n
\n\n
\n {isTodayEvent ? (\n
\n Today\n
\n ) : (\n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n \n \n \n )}\n
\n
\n

\n\n \n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")!).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") client();\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/source\") {\n const { parseVal } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/utils/index.ts\");\n return new Response(null, { status: 302, headers: { Location: parseVal().links.self.val } });\n }\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/api/timeline-events\") {\n const { blob } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\");\n const data = await blob.getJSON(\"when-timeline-v1\").catch(() => null);\n if (!data) {\n return Response.json(\n { error: \"Timeline not built yet — check back in a few minutes\" },\n { status: 503 },\n );\n }\n return Response.json(data, {\n headers: { \"Cache-Control\": \"public, max-age=300\" },\n });\n }\n\n return new Response(\n `\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n \n

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Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

Years

\n {years.map((year) => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{\" \"}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {\" \"}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{\" \"}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n
\n 📅 Today · {formatDate(today)}\n \n
\n
\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n\n
\n {event.emojis &&
{event.emojis}
}\n\n
\n \n {formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n {event.emojis && {event.emojis}}\n \n
\n\n
\n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n \n \n \n )}\n
\n
\n

\n\n \n

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const css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n transition: background-color 0.3s ease, color 0.3s ease;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n /* Dark mode styles */\n .app-container.dark {\n background-color: #0f172a;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* Scrollable Year Navigation */\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n max-height: 80vh;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #334155;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-title {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll {\n overflow-y: auto;\n flex: 1;\n scrollbar-width: thin;\n scrollbar-color: #cbd5e1 transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar {\n width: 4px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-track {\n background: transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #cbd5e1;\n border-radius: 2px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #475569;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #334155;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #000000;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header {\n border-bottom: 2px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header h1 {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header p {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #000000;\n text-decoration: none;\n 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background: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 120px;\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n /* Emoji positioning - left side for non-mobile */\n .emojis-left {\n position: absolute;\n left: -100px;\n top: 0;\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.3em;\n line-height: 1.8;\n text-align: center;\n width: 80px;\n display: none;\n white-space: nowrap;\n overflow: hidden;\n }\n\n /* Show emojis on left for non-mobile (768px+) */\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-left {\n display: block;\n }\n }\n\n /* Mobile emoji positioning - next to date */\n .emojis-mobile {\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n margin-left: 8px;\n display: inline;\n white-space: nowrap;\n }\n\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-mobile {\n display: none;\n }\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n line-height: 0.9;\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #000000;\n top: 50%;\n left: -120px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 80px;\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event time {\n display: inline-block;\n }\n\n /* Today divider */\n .today-divider {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 12px;\n margin: 50px 0;\n position: relative;\n z-index: 1;\n }\n\n .today-pill {\n background: #dc2626;\n color: #ffffff;\n font-weight: 700;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n padding: 5px 14px;\n border-radius: 999px;\n white-space: nowrap;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .today-line {\n flex: 1;\n height: 2px;\n background: #dc2626;\n opacity: 0.4;\n border-radius: 1px;\n }\n\n .dark .today-pill {\n background: #fca5a5;\n color: #0f172a;\n }\n\n .dark .today-line {\n background: #fca5a5;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .details {\n margin-top: 15px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .event-statement {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #000000;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator {\n color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator::before {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .month-separator {\n font-size: 1.4em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #374151;\n margin: 30px 0 20px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 30px;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator {\n color: #d1d5db;\n }\n\n .month-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 25px;\n height: 2px;\n background-color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator::before {\n background-color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n text-align: center;\n padding: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-container {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #000000;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-spinner {\n border: 3px solid #334155;\n border-top: 3px solid #ffffff;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n .dark .error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: #1f1f1f;\n border: 1px solid #374151;\n }\n\n /* Mobile responsive */\n @media (max-width: 700px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 60px;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 40px;\n left: -60px;\n }\n\n .today-divider {\n margin: 35px 0;\n gap: 10px;\n }\n\n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n max-height: 70vh;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 15px;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 50px;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 30px;\n left: -50px;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n\n .today-divider {\n margin: 30px 0;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .today-pill {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n padding: 4px 10px;\n }\n\n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n max-height: 60vh;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 10px;\n }\n\n .footer {\n padding: 30px 15px;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n }\n`;\n","label",[140],"2eda4f1c-69cb-11f0-afd5-0224a6c84d84","moi.md","62b66cde-69c7-11f0-a84e-0224a6c84d84",16,["D",1753498183371],4,"---\ntitle: \"When\"\ndescription: \"A vertical emoji-marked timeline of Manifold date markets.\"\nimageUrl: \"https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public\"\nurl: \"https://when.val.run\"\nauthor: \"dcm31\"\ntags: \n---",[152],"a4d93900-4288-4fc5-b44e-563e7a2158e1","logic.ts","460f9dcc-69bc-11f0-ab7f-0224a6c84d84",21,["D",1783476410072],3,"// Timeline building logic. Run by build.ts (cron), NOT per-request.\nimport { getCachedConversion, setCachedConversion, getCachedEmojis, setCachedEmojis } from \"./cache.ts\";\n\n// Caps per build run so a cron invocation stays well under the time limit.\n// Uncached items fall back gracefully and get picked up on later runs as caches fill.\nconst MAX_API_CONVERSIONS_PER_RUN = 25;\nconst MAX_EMOJI_API_CALLS_PER_RUN = 50;\nconst ANSWER_FETCH_CONCURRENCY = 15;\n\nconst CONVERT_API_URL = \"https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert\";\nconst EMOJI_API_URL = \"https://texttoemojis.val.run/api\";\n\n// ---------- Question → statement conversion ----------\n\n// Smart internal conversion with proper capitalization and punctuation\nexport function convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n };\n\n // \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBeMatch = question.match(/^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(/^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${willHappenMatch[1].trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // \"When will X ...?\" -> \"X will ...\" (common verbs)\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(\n /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|repair|damage|delete).+)\\??$/i,\n );\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearMatch = question.match(/^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i);\n if (yearMatch) {\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${yearMatch[1].trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction fallbackStatement(question: string): string {\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, \"\").replace(/\\?$/, \"\") + \" will happen\";\n const cleaned = fallback.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n}\n\nfunction cleanApiResponse(text: string): string {\n const cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n}\n\n// ---------- Emoji fetching ----------\n\nasync function getEmojisForTitle(title: string): Promise {\n try {\n const response = await fetch(`${EMOJI_API_URL}?text=${encodeURIComponent(title)}&count=3`);\n if (response.status === 429) {\n throw new Error(\"429 rate limited\");\n }\n if (!response.ok) {\n console.error(`Emoji API error: ${response.status} ${response.statusText}`);\n return \"\";\n }\n const data = await response.json();\n const emojis = data.emojis || \"\";\n // Only cache successes so failures are retried on later runs\n if (emojis) await setCachedEmojis(title, emojis);\n return emojis;\n } catch (error) {\n if (error instanceof Error && error.message.includes(\"429\")) throw error;\n console.error(\"Error fetching emojis:\", error);\n return \"\";\n }\n}\n\n// ---------- Expected date algorithm ----------\n\nfunction sum(arr: number[]): number {\n return arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n}\n\nfunction filterDefined(arr: (T | null | undefined)[]): T[] {\n return arr.filter((x): x is T => x != null);\n}\n\nfunction getAnswerProbability(contract: any, answerId: string): number {\n const answer = contract.answers.find((a: any) => a.id === answerId);\n return answer?.prob || 0;\n}\n\nfunction getInitialAnswerProbability(_contract: any, answer: any): number {\n return answer.prob || 0;\n}\n\n// Handles both bucket-style markets (probs sum to ~1) and threshold-style\n// cumulative markets (e.g. \"by 2027 / by 2028 / ...\").\nexport function getExpectedDate(contract: any, initialOnly?: boolean): number {\n const { answers, isResolved } = contract;\n\n const totalProb = answers.reduce((s: number, a: any) => s + (a.prob || 0), 0);\n const shouldAnswersSumToOne = Math.abs(totalProb - 1) < 0.1;\n\n // For threshold-style markets, drop resolved-NO answers (0% probability)\n const activeAnswers = shouldAnswersSumToOne\n ? answers\n : answers.filter((a: any) => !a.resolution || a.resolution !== \"NO\");\n\n const answerProbabilities = filterDefined(\n activeAnswers.map((a: any) =>\n initialOnly\n ? getInitialAnswerProbability(contract, a)\n : isResolved\n ? a.prob\n : getAnswerProbability(contract, a.id)\n ),\n );\n\n const answerMidpoints = activeAnswers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n\n if (shouldAnswersSumToOne) {\n // Bucket-style: simple weighted average\n return sum(answerProbabilities.map((p, i) => p * answerMidpoints[i]));\n }\n\n // Threshold-style: convert cumulative probs to discrete period probs\n const discreteProbs = [answerProbabilities[0]];\n for (let i = 1; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[i] - answerProbabilities[i - 1]);\n }\n const afterLastProb = 1 - answerProbabilities[answerProbabilities.length - 1];\n\n let expectedValue = 0;\n for (let i = 0; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n expectedValue += answerMidpoints[i] * discreteProbs[i];\n }\n\n // \"After the last threshold\" tail\n if (afterLastProb > 0 && answerMidpoints.length > 0) {\n const lastMidpoint = answerMidpoints[answerMidpoints.length - 1];\n const allMidpoints = answers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n const timePeriod = allMidpoints.length > 1\n ? allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 1] - allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 2]\n : 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 30-day default\n expectedValue += (lastMidpoint + timePeriod) * afterLastProb;\n }\n\n return expectedValue;\n}\n\n// ---------- Types ----------\n\nexport interface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n emojis?: string;\n}\n\n// ---------- Helpers ----------\n\nasync function mapWithConcurrency(\n items: T[],\n concurrency: number,\n fn: (item: T, index: number) => Promise,\n): Promise {\n const results: R[] = new Array(items.length);\n let next = 0;\n const workers = Array.from({ length: Math.min(concurrency, items.length) }, async () => {\n while (true) {\n const i = next++;\n if (i >= items.length) return;\n results[i] = await fn(items[i], i);\n }\n });\n await Promise.all(workers);\n return results;\n}\n\n// ---------- Main build ----------\n\nexport async function fetchTimelineEvents(): Promise {\n // Phase 1: fetch all DATE markets (paginated)\n const allMarkets: any[] = [];\n let offset = 0;\n const limit = 100;\n while (true) {\n const response = await fetch(\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=${limit}&offset=${offset}`,\n );\n const markets = await response.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(markets) || markets.length === 0) break;\n allMarkets.push(...markets);\n if (markets.length < limit) break;\n offset += limit;\n }\n console.log(`Fetched ${allMarkets.length} total DATE markets`);\n if (allMarkets.length === 0) throw new Error(\"No DATE markets found\");\n\n // Phase 2: filter to open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter((m) => !m.isResolved && m.closeTime > now);\n console.log(`Found ${openMarkets.length} open DATE markets`);\n\n // Phase 3: fetch answers in parallel and compute expected dates\n const processed = await mapWithConcurrency(openMarkets, ANSWER_FETCH_CONCURRENCY, async (market) => {\n try {\n const res = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n if (!res.ok) return null;\n const answers = await res.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(answers) || answers.length === 0) return null;\n\n const expectedDate = getExpectedDate({ ...market, answers });\n if (!expectedDate || isNaN(expectedDate) || expectedDate < now) return null;\n\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max: any, a: any) => (a.prob > max.prob ? a : max), answers[0]);\n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url + \"?r=Q2hhcmxpZQ\",\n creator: market.creatorName,\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n });\n const marketsWithPredictions = filterDefined(processed);\n console.log(`Valid future markets: ${marketsWithPredictions.length}`);\n if (marketsWithPredictions.length === 0) throw new Error(\"No valid future markets found\");\n\n // Phase 4: convert questions to statements (cache → internal regex → API, capped)\n const statements: string[] = new Array(marketsWithPredictions.length);\n let apiConversionsUsed = 0;\n\n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const question = marketsWithPredictions[i].question;\n\n const cached = await getCachedConversion(question);\n if (cached) {\n statements[i] = cached;\n continue;\n }\n\n const internal = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n if (internal) {\n statements[i] = internal;\n await setCachedConversion(question, internal);\n continue;\n }\n\n if (apiConversionsUsed >= MAX_API_CONVERSIONS_PER_RUN) {\n // Over budget: use fallback WITHOUT caching so a future run retries via API\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n continue;\n }\n\n apiConversionsUsed++;\n try {\n const res = await fetch(CONVERT_API_URL, {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question }),\n });\n if (res.ok) {\n const result = await res.json();\n const statement = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n statements[i] = statement;\n await setCachedConversion(question, statement);\n } else {\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question:`, err);\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n }\n }\n console.log(`Conversions: ${apiConversionsUsed} via API this run`);\n\n // Phase 5: emojis (cache first, capped API calls)\n const emojisList: string[] = new Array(marketsWithPredictions.length).fill(\"\");\n let emojiApiCallsUsed = 0;\n let emojiRateLimitHit = false;\n\n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const statement = statements[i];\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(statement);\n if (cached !== null) {\n emojisList[i] = cached;\n continue;\n }\n if (emojiRateLimitHit || emojiApiCallsUsed >= MAX_EMOJI_API_CALLS_PER_RUN) continue;\n\n emojiApiCallsUsed++;\n try {\n emojisList[i] = await getEmojisForTitle(statement);\n await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 250)); // be gentle with the emoji API\n } catch (err) {\n console.log(\"Emoji API rate limited, skipping remaining emoji requests this run\");\n emojiRateLimitHit = true;\n }\n }\n console.log(`Emojis: ${emojiApiCallsUsed} API calls this run`);\n\n // Phase 6: assemble\n return marketsWithPredictions.map((market, i) => ({\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[i],\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator,\n emojis: emojisList[i],\n }));\n}\n",[160],"657713c2-2212-4c3d-8b1f-a998962e2c93",["D",1783480207605],[28],"26ee2e22-69cb-11f0-9d62-0224a6c84d84","images.md","6348f694-69c7-11f0-b39a-0224a6c84d84",15,["D",1753498170080],1,"![image.png](https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public)",[171],"0e624430-fa61-4ed9-8032-53ec1ee6f7e0","cache.ts","ec8d2188-69c6-11f0-9d22-0224a6c84d84",20,["D",1783476356302],"// SQLite-backed caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n// Uses the per-val database (std/sqlite/main.ts).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nconst CONVERSION_TABLE = \"conversion_cache_v2\";\nconst EMOJI_TABLE = \"emoji_cache_v2\";\n\nlet tablesReady = false;\nasync function ensureTables(): Promise {\n if (tablesReady) return;\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (\n question TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n statement TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${EMOJI_TABLE} (\n text TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n emojis TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n ]);\n tablesReady = true;\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedConversion(question: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT statement FROM ${CONVERSION_TABLE} WHERE question = ?`,\n args: [question],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].statement as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached conversion:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedConversion(question: string, statement: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (question, statement) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [question, statement],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching conversion:\", error);\n }\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedEmojis(text: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT emojis FROM ${EMOJI_TABLE} WHERE text = ?`,\n args: [text],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].emojis as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached emojis:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedEmojis(text: string, emojis: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${EMOJI_TABLE} (text, emojis) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [text, emojis],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching emojis:\", error);\n }\n}\n",[179],"fc68dfb8-4fa4-4ca3-b129-a37ba83531a0","build.ts","b3766618-7a71-11f1-81b7-1607ee4eb77e",22,["D",1783476418585],"interval","// Cron: rebuilds the timeline from Manifold and stores it in blob storage.\n// The HTTP endpoint (index.ts) serves this cached data instantly.\nimport { blob } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\";\nimport { fetchTimelineEvents } from \"./logic.ts\";\n\nexport const TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY = \"when-timeline-v1\";\n\nexport async function buildAndStore() {\n const started = Date.now();\n const events = await fetchTimelineEvents();\n await blob.setJSON(TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY, {\n updatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n events,\n });\n console.log(`Built timeline with ${events.length} events in ${((Date.now() - started) / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`);\n return events.length;\n}\n\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n await buildAndStore();\n}\n",[186],"cab1a04b-338c-44bb-89c9-e60ca0122110","README.md","2deb8ba8-7a72-11f1-911d-1607ee4eb77e",24,["D",1783476624032],"# WHEN — A Timeline of the Future\n\nA vertical timeline of the future built from [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets) DATE-market forecasts. Live at .\n\n## Architecture\n\n```mermaid\ngraph LR\n cron[build.ts cron
every 6h] -->|fetchTimelineEvents| logic[logic.ts]\n logic -->|Manifold API| M[api.manifold.markets]\n logic -->|conversion + emoji caches| cache[cache.ts / SQLite]\n cron -->|setJSON when-timeline-v1| B[(blob)]\n http[index.ts HTTP] -->|GET /api/timeline-events| B\n browser[React client
in index.ts] --> http\n```\n\n- **build.ts** (cron, every 6 hours) — fetches all Manifold DATE markets, computes probability-weighted expected dates, converts questions to statements, adds emojis, and stores the result in blob key `when-timeline-v1`. Answer fetches run with concurrency 15; external API calls (statement conversion, emojis) are capped per run and fall back gracefully — caches fill up across runs.\n- **logic.ts** — the build pipeline: `getExpectedDate` handles both bucket-style and cumulative threshold-style markets; `convertQuestionInternally` handles common \"When will X…?\" phrasings via regex before falling back to an external LLM conversion API.\n- **cache.ts** — SQLite (per-val DB) caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n- **index.ts** — HTTP val. Serves the React client, `/api/timeline-events` (cached JSON from blob, instant), `/api/subscribe` (email list stored in blob), and `/source`.\n- **styles.ts** — CSS exported as a string.\n- **moi.md / images.md** — build.moi directory metadata.\n\n## Why the cron?\n\nThe timeline build takes ~90s (400+ markets, one answers request each, plus external APIs) — far past the HTTP request time limit. Previously the build ran per-request over SSE and got killed mid-stream. Now the HTTP endpoint just reads the pre-built blob.\n\n## External dependencies\n\n- Manifold API (`/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE`, `/v0/market/:id/answers`)\n- `texttoemojis.val.run` — emoji tagging (dcm31's val)\n- Question→statement conversion API (dcm31's val)\n\n## Manual rebuild\n\nRun `build.ts` from the Val Town UI, or call `buildAndStore()` from a script.\n",[194],"d0bb8b9f-ee74-4a4c-a1ed-21198bcbe114","scripts","5aab5590-b420-4b84-9a53-d67c154cfd07",25,["D",1783477323676],"directory",[201],"pulls","branches",6,"forks","envVars",{"_215":62,"_217":62},"connections",{"_215":62,"_216":62},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_43":200,"_32":201,"_30":202,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":203,"_144":58,"_38":252,"_13":62,"_33":205,"_35":-5,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":253,"_27":254},{"_43":193,"_32":194,"_30":195,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":196,"_144":25,"_38":249,"_13":62,"_33":20,"_35":198,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":250,"_27":251},{"_43":185,"_32":186,"_30":187,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":188,"_144":58,"_38":246,"_13":62,"_33":190,"_35":191,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":247,"_27":248},{"_43":178,"_32":179,"_30":180,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":181,"_144":58,"_38":243,"_13":175,"_33":147,"_35":183,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":244,"_27":245},{"_43":170,"_32":171,"_30":172,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":173,"_144":58,"_38":240,"_13":175,"_33":20,"_35":176,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":241,"_27":242},{"_43":167,"_32":28,"_30":31,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":14,"_144":25,"_38":237,"_13":154,"_33":34,"_35":37,"_24":25,"_149":45,"_228":238,"_27":239},{"_43":159,"_32":160,"_30":161,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":162,"_144":58,"_38":234,"_13":164,"_33":147,"_35":165,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":235,"_27":236},{"_43":151,"_32":152,"_30":153,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":154,"_144":58,"_38":231,"_13":156,"_33":20,"_35":157,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":232,"_27":233},{"_43":139,"_32":140,"_30":141,"_142":-5,"_41":42,"_40":143,"_144":58,"_38":227,"_13":146,"_33":147,"_35":148,"_24":25,"_149":-5,"_228":229,"_27":230},["D",1783480155248],"children",[],[140],["D",1753498183371],[],[152],["D",1783476410072],[],[160],["D",1783480207605],[],[28],["D",1753498170080],[],[171],["D",1783476356302],[],[179],["D",1783476418585],[],[186],["D",1783476624032],[],[194],["D",1783477323676],[],[201],["D",1753454022202],["D",1789527031073],{"_99":98,"_107":103},{"_99":98,"_100":101,"_102":103,"_18":55,"_104":105,"_106":25},{"_13":88,"_32":89,"_43":42,"_90":44,"_91":-5,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":45,"_97":98},"ctx",{"_81":-5,"_127":293,"_294":295,"_296":297,"_298":25,"_299":25,"_300":25,"_301":58,"_302":-5,"_303":-7,"_304":-7,"_305":62,"_306":25,"_307":25,"_308":-5,"_309":25,"_310":25,"_311":25,"_312":-5},"ENV",{"_264":265,"_266":267,"_268":89,"_269":270,"_271":272,"_273":274,"_275":276,"_277":278,"_279":280,"_281":282,"_283":284,"_285":286,"_287":288,"_289":290,"_291":292},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

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