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One-off: final 3 exact-key seeds.\nimport { setCachedEmojis } from \"../cache.ts\";\n\nconst SEED: [string, string][] = [\n [\"Comma 3X will be deprecated by ...\", \"🚗📵🪦\"],\n [\"It will be possible to routinely fly beyond visual line of sight drones in the US with a permit or certificate\", \"🚁👁️📜\"],\n [\"Global total fertility rate will fall below 2.1 in the coming decade.\", \"🌍👶📉\"],\n];\n\nfor (const [text, emojis] of SEED) await setCachedEmojis(text, emojis);\nconsole.log(\"Seeded 3\");\n\nawait fetch(\"https://texttoemojis.val.run/api/seed\", {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ items: SEED.map(([text, emojis]) => ({ text, count: 3, emojis })) }),\n});\nconsole.log(\"Mirrored to texttoemojis\");\n","// One-off: seed round 3 — exact keys from the blob.\nimport { setCachedEmojis } from \"../cache.ts\";\n\nconst SEED: [string, string][] = [\n [\"AI will beat Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by a certain date.\", \"🎮🤖🌀\"],\n [\"Slate Auto will ship their 500th vehicle.\", \"🚙🏭🔢\"],\n [\"My laptop will degrade.\", \"💻📉😢\"],\n [\"Pope and Patriarch will consider themselves in full communion.\", \"🇻🇦🤝☦️\"],\n [\"The next battle will be released in MTG.\", \"🃏⚔️🐉\"],\n [\"A fully AI-generated song will reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027.\", \"🤖🎵🔟\"],\n [\"The next Pokémon Mystery Dungeon game will be released.\", \"🎮🐭🕵️\"],\n [\"A fully driverless Waymo will operate from SFO to Lighthaven.\", \"🚗✈️🏠\"],\n [\"An AI-generated movie will become the first major box office success.\", \"🤖🎬💰\"],\n [\"Waymo or a feature-equivalent competitor will deploy into Calgary year-round.\", \"🚗🇨🇦❄️\"],\n [\"The Tenth Drop will occur.\", \"💧🔟❓\"],\n [\"The French translation of \\\"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies\\\" will appear.\", \"📚🇫🇷🤖\"],\n [\"World Bank will classify India as Upper-Middle Income.\", \"🇮🇳💰📈\"],\n [\"Kalshi will be generally available to UK customers.\", \"📊🇬🇧💷\"],\n [\"I will next become fully employed.\", \"💼🔍🎉\"],\n [\"The German translation of \\\"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies\\\" will appear.\", \"📚🇩🇪🤖\"],\n [\"Polymarket will be generally available to UK customers.\", \"📊🇬🇧🪙\"],\n [\"Chapter 400 of Berserk will be released.\", \"⚔️📖🖤\"],\n [\"Tesla will offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes.\", \"🚗📦🏠\"],\n [\"Ladybird browser's first alpha version will be released.\", \"🐞🌐🚀\"],\n [\"Kalomaze will transition.\", \"🏳️‍⚧️💻✨\"],\n [\"The Mandarin Chinese translation of \\\"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies\\\" will appear.\", \"📚🇨🇳🤖\"],\n [\"Mazda will release the next sport coupe.\", \"🚗🏁😎\"],\n [\"FDA approval for Novartis' malaria drug ('GanLum') will be granted.\", \"💊🦟✅\"],\n [\"Free frontier-model tokens will end.\", \"🤖🆓⌛\"],\n [\"The next Greek parliamentary election will be held.\", \"🇬🇷🗳️🏛️\"],\n [\"Russia will attack, fight, or substantially intrude into a NATO country.\", \"🇷🇺⚔️🌍\"],\n [\"Manifold will implement a charity program.\", \"📊❤️🎁\"],\n [\"A seamless Google Earth / Streetview-like app will be developed.\", \"🌍📱🗺️\"],\n [\"Ukraine will capture Kupiansk.\", \"🇺🇦🪖🏙️\"],\n [\"The Russian translation of \\\"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies\\\" will appear.\", \"📚🇷🇺🤖\"],\n [\"My USD net worth will exceed mana net worth.\", \"💵📈📊\"],\n];\n\nfor (const [text, emojis] of SEED) await setCachedEmojis(text, emojis);\nconsole.log(`Seeded ${SEED.length}`);\n\nawait fetch(\"https://texttoemojis.val.run/api/seed\", {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ items: SEED.map(([text, emojis]) => ({ text, count: 3, emojis })) }),\n});\nconsole.log(\"Mirrored to texttoemojis\");\n","createdAt",["D",1783477931765],"branchVersion","branchId","5cbe35ae-6964-11f0-9ae6-0224a6c84d84","id","5cbdcc4a-6964-11f0-9ae6-0224a6c84d84","when",["D",1753454022202],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","a timeline of date markets on 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Styles for the timeline application\nexport const css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n transition: background-color 0.3s ease, color 0.3s ease;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n /* Dark mode styles */\n .app-container.dark {\n background-color: #0f172a;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* Subscription Box Styles */\n .subscription-box {\n background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.03);\n border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 16px 20px;\n margin-bottom: 30px;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-box {\n background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);\n border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);\n }\n\n .subscription-content {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 12px;\n flex-wrap: wrap;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .subscription-text {\n font-size: 0.95em;\n color: #64748b;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-text {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .subscription-form {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n padding: 6px 12px;\n border: 1px solid #d1d5db;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n background: white;\n color: #374151;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n min-width: 160px;\n }\n\n .subscription-input:focus {\n outline: none;\n border-color: #000000;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #475569;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input:focus {\n border-color: #ffffff;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);\n }\n\n .subscription-input::placeholder {\n color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input::placeholder {\n color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .subscription-input:disabled {\n opacity: 0.6;\n cursor: not-allowed;\n }\n\n .subscription-button {\n padding: 6px 16px;\n background: #000000;\n color: white;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .subscription-button:hover:not(:disabled) {\n background: #374151;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-button {\n background: #ffffff;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-button:hover:not(:disabled) {\n background: #e5e7eb;\n }\n\n .subscription-button:disabled {\n cursor: not-allowed;\n opacity: 0.6;\n }\n\n .subscription-button.loading {\n cursor: wait;\n }\n\n .subscription-message {\n text-align: center;\n margin-top: 8px;\n padding: 4px 8px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .subscription-message.success {\n color: #059669;\n background: rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.2);\n }\n\n .subscription-message.error {\n color: #dc2626;\n background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.2);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-message.success {\n color: #34d399;\n background: rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.2);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-message.error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.2);\n }\n\n /* Scrollable Year Navigation */\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n max-height: 80vh;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #334155;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-title {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll {\n overflow-y: auto;\n flex: 1;\n scrollbar-width: thin;\n scrollbar-color: #cbd5e1 transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar {\n width: 4px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-track {\n background: transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #cbd5e1;\n border-radius: 2px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #475569;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #334155;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #000000;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header {\n border-bottom: 2px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header h1 {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header p {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #000000;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header a {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .byline a {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .footer {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n border-top: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n margin-top: 50px;\n }\n\n .dark .footer {\n border-top: 1px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .credits a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .credits a {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n padding: 50px 20px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n max-width: 1000px;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-wrapper {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* TIMELINE STYLING - BLACK THEME */\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n list-style: none;\n }\n\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n left: 0;\n width: 3px;\n height: 100%;\n background: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 120px;\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n /* Emoji positioning - left side for non-mobile - FIXED */\n .emojis-left {\n position: absolute;\n left: -100px;\n top: 0;\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.3em;\n line-height: 1.8;\n text-align: center;\n width: 80px;\n display: none;\n white-space: nowrap;\n overflow: hidden;\n }\n\n /* Show emojis on left for non-mobile (768px+) */\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-left {\n display: block;\n }\n }\n\n /* Mobile emoji positioning - next to date */\n .emojis-mobile {\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n margin-left: 8px;\n display: inline;\n white-space: nowrap;\n }\n\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-mobile {\n display: none;\n }\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n line-height: 0.9;\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #000000;\n top: 50%;\n left: -120px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 80px;\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event time {\n display: inline-block;\n }\n\n .today-date {\n color: #dc2626 !important;\n font-weight: 700 !important;\n }\n\n .dark .today-date {\n color: #fca5a5 !important;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .details {\n margin-top: 15px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .event-statement {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .today-marker .event-statement {\n color: #dc2626;\n font-weight: 700;\n }\n\n .dark .today-marker .event-statement {\n color: #fca5a5;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #000000;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator {\n color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator::before {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .month-separator {\n font-size: 1.4em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #374151;\n margin: 30px 0 20px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 30px;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator {\n color: #d1d5db;\n }\n\n .month-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 25px;\n height: 2px;\n background-color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator::before {\n background-color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .today-event {\n background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.05);\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 10px;\n margin: 20px 0;\n }\n\n .dark .today-event {\n background: rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.1);\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n text-align: center;\n padding: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-container {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #000000;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-spinner {\n border: 3px solid #334155;\n border-top: 3px solid #ffffff;\n }\n\n .progress-info {\n max-width: 500px;\n width: 100%;\n }\n\n .progress-phase {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n font-weight: 600;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n color: #1e293b;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-phase {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .progress-message {\n font-size: 0.9em;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n color: #64748b;\n word-break: break-word;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-message {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .progress-bar-container {\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .progress-bar {\n width: 100%;\n height: 8px;\n background-color: #e2e8f0;\n border-radius: 4px;\n overflow: hidden;\n margin-bottom: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-bar {\n background-color: #334155;\n }\n\n .progress-fill {\n height: 100%;\n background-color: #000000;\n transition: width 0.3s ease;\n border-radius: 4px;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-fill {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .progress-text {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-text {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n .dark .error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: #1f1f1f;\n border: 1px solid #374151;\n }\n\n /* Mobile responsive - improved */\n @media (max-width: 700px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 60px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 40px;\n left: -60px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n max-height: 70vh;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 15px;\n }\n\n .progress-info {\n max-width: 100%;\n }\n\n /* Subscription box mobile adjustments */\n .subscription-content {\n flex-direction: column;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .subscription-form {\n width: 100%;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n min-width: 140px;\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 200px;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n \n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 50px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 30px;\n left: -50px;\n }\n \n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n max-height: 60vh;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 10px;\n }\n\n .progress-phase {\n font-size: 1em;\n }\n\n .progress-message {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .footer {\n padding: 30px 15px;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n /* Subscription box smaller mobile adjustments */\n .subscription-box {\n padding: 12px 16px;\n }\n\n .subscription-text {\n font-size: 0.9em;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n padding: 5px 10px;\n }\n\n .subscription-button {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n padding: 5px 12px;\n }\n }\n`;","label",[142],"2eda4f1c-69cb-11f0-afd5-0224a6c84d84","moi.md","62b66cde-69c7-11f0-a84e-0224a6c84d84",16,["D",1753498183371],4,"---\ntitle: \"When\"\ndescription: \"A vertical emoji-marked timeline of Manifold date markets.\"\nimageUrl: \"https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public\"\nurl: \"https://when.val.run\"\nauthor: \"dcm31\"\ntags: \n---",[153],"a4d93900-4288-4fc5-b44e-563e7a2158e1","logic.ts","460f9dcc-69bc-11f0-ab7f-0224a6c84d84",21,["D",1783476410072],3,"// Timeline building logic. Run by build.ts (cron), NOT per-request.\nimport { getCachedConversion, setCachedConversion, getCachedEmojis, setCachedEmojis } from \"./cache.ts\";\n\n// Caps per build run so a cron invocation stays well under the time limit.\n// Uncached items fall back gracefully and get picked up on later runs as caches fill.\nconst MAX_API_CONVERSIONS_PER_RUN = 25;\nconst MAX_EMOJI_API_CALLS_PER_RUN = 50;\nconst ANSWER_FETCH_CONCURRENCY = 15;\n\nconst CONVERT_API_URL = \"https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert\";\nconst EMOJI_API_URL = \"https://texttoemojis.val.run/api\";\n\n// ---------- Question → statement conversion ----------\n\n// Smart internal conversion with proper capitalization and punctuation\nexport function convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n };\n\n // \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBeMatch = question.match(/^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(/^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${willHappenMatch[1].trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // \"When will X ...?\" -> \"X will ...\" (common verbs)\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(\n /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|repair|damage|delete).+)\\??$/i,\n );\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearMatch = question.match(/^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i);\n if (yearMatch) {\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${yearMatch[1].trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction fallbackStatement(question: string): string {\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, \"\").replace(/\\?$/, \"\") + \" will happen\";\n const cleaned = fallback.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n}\n\nfunction cleanApiResponse(text: string): string {\n const cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n}\n\n// ---------- Emoji fetching ----------\n\nasync function getEmojisForTitle(title: string): Promise {\n try {\n const response = await fetch(`${EMOJI_API_URL}?text=${encodeURIComponent(title)}&count=3`);\n if (response.status === 429) {\n throw new Error(\"429 rate limited\");\n }\n if (!response.ok) {\n console.error(`Emoji API error: ${response.status} ${response.statusText}`);\n return \"\";\n }\n const data = await response.json();\n const emojis = data.emojis || \"\";\n // Only cache successes so failures are retried on later runs\n if (emojis) await setCachedEmojis(title, emojis);\n return emojis;\n } catch (error) {\n if (error instanceof Error && error.message.includes(\"429\")) throw error;\n console.error(\"Error fetching emojis:\", error);\n return \"\";\n }\n}\n\n// ---------- Expected date algorithm ----------\n\nfunction sum(arr: number[]): number {\n return arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n}\n\nfunction filterDefined(arr: (T | null | undefined)[]): T[] {\n return arr.filter((x): x is T => x != null);\n}\n\nfunction getAnswerProbability(contract: any, answerId: string): number {\n const answer = contract.answers.find((a: any) => a.id === answerId);\n return answer?.prob || 0;\n}\n\nfunction getInitialAnswerProbability(_contract: any, answer: any): number {\n return answer.prob || 0;\n}\n\n// Handles both bucket-style markets (probs sum to ~1) and threshold-style\n// cumulative markets (e.g. \"by 2027 / by 2028 / ...\").\nexport function getExpectedDate(contract: any, initialOnly?: boolean): number {\n const { answers, isResolved } = contract;\n\n const totalProb = answers.reduce((s: number, a: any) => s + (a.prob || 0), 0);\n const shouldAnswersSumToOne = Math.abs(totalProb - 1) < 0.1;\n\n // For threshold-style markets, drop resolved-NO answers (0% probability)\n const activeAnswers = shouldAnswersSumToOne\n ? answers\n : answers.filter((a: any) => !a.resolution || a.resolution !== \"NO\");\n\n const answerProbabilities = filterDefined(\n activeAnswers.map((a: any) =>\n initialOnly\n ? getInitialAnswerProbability(contract, a)\n : isResolved\n ? a.prob\n : getAnswerProbability(contract, a.id)\n ),\n );\n\n const answerMidpoints = activeAnswers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n\n if (shouldAnswersSumToOne) {\n // Bucket-style: simple weighted average\n return sum(answerProbabilities.map((p, i) => p * answerMidpoints[i]));\n }\n\n // Threshold-style: convert cumulative probs to discrete period probs\n const discreteProbs = [answerProbabilities[0]];\n for (let i = 1; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[i] - answerProbabilities[i - 1]);\n }\n const afterLastProb = 1 - answerProbabilities[answerProbabilities.length - 1];\n\n let expectedValue = 0;\n for (let i = 0; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n expectedValue += answerMidpoints[i] * discreteProbs[i];\n }\n\n // \"After the last threshold\" tail\n if (afterLastProb > 0 && answerMidpoints.length > 0) {\n const lastMidpoint = answerMidpoints[answerMidpoints.length - 1];\n const allMidpoints = answers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n const timePeriod = allMidpoints.length > 1\n ? allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 1] - allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 2]\n : 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 30-day default\n expectedValue += (lastMidpoint + timePeriod) * afterLastProb;\n }\n\n return expectedValue;\n}\n\n// ---------- Types ----------\n\nexport interface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n emojis?: string;\n}\n\n// ---------- Helpers ----------\n\nasync function mapWithConcurrency(\n items: T[],\n concurrency: number,\n fn: (item: T, index: number) => Promise,\n): Promise {\n const results: R[] = new Array(items.length);\n let next = 0;\n const workers = Array.from({ length: Math.min(concurrency, items.length) }, async () => {\n while (true) {\n const i = next++;\n if (i >= items.length) return;\n results[i] = await fn(items[i], i);\n }\n });\n await Promise.all(workers);\n return results;\n}\n\n// ---------- Main build ----------\n\nexport async function fetchTimelineEvents(): Promise {\n // Phase 1: fetch all DATE markets (paginated)\n const allMarkets: any[] = [];\n let offset = 0;\n const limit = 100;\n while (true) {\n const response = await fetch(\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=${limit}&offset=${offset}`,\n );\n const markets = await response.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(markets) || markets.length === 0) break;\n allMarkets.push(...markets);\n if (markets.length < limit) break;\n offset += limit;\n }\n console.log(`Fetched ${allMarkets.length} total DATE markets`);\n if (allMarkets.length === 0) throw new Error(\"No DATE markets found\");\n\n // Phase 2: filter to open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter((m) => !m.isResolved && m.closeTime > now);\n console.log(`Found ${openMarkets.length} open DATE markets`);\n\n // Phase 3: fetch answers in parallel and compute expected dates\n const processed = await mapWithConcurrency(openMarkets, ANSWER_FETCH_CONCURRENCY, async (market) => {\n try {\n const res = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n if (!res.ok) return null;\n const answers = await res.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(answers) || answers.length === 0) return null;\n\n const expectedDate = getExpectedDate({ ...market, answers });\n if (!expectedDate || isNaN(expectedDate) || expectedDate < now) return null;\n\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max: any, a: any) => (a.prob > max.prob ? a : max), answers[0]);\n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url + \"?r=Q2hhcmxpZQ\",\n creator: market.creatorName,\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n });\n const marketsWithPredictions = filterDefined(processed);\n console.log(`Valid future markets: ${marketsWithPredictions.length}`);\n if (marketsWithPredictions.length === 0) throw new Error(\"No valid future markets found\");\n\n // Phase 4: convert questions to statements (cache → internal regex → API, capped)\n const statements: string[] = new Array(marketsWithPredictions.length);\n let apiConversionsUsed = 0;\n\n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const question = marketsWithPredictions[i].question;\n\n const cached = await getCachedConversion(question);\n if (cached) {\n statements[i] = cached;\n continue;\n }\n\n const internal = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n if (internal) {\n statements[i] = internal;\n await setCachedConversion(question, internal);\n continue;\n }\n\n if (apiConversionsUsed >= MAX_API_CONVERSIONS_PER_RUN) {\n // Over budget: use fallback WITHOUT caching so a future run retries via API\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n continue;\n }\n\n apiConversionsUsed++;\n try {\n const res = await fetch(CONVERT_API_URL, {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question }),\n });\n if (res.ok) {\n const result = await res.json();\n const statement = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n statements[i] = statement;\n await setCachedConversion(question, statement);\n } else {\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question:`, err);\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n }\n }\n console.log(`Conversions: ${apiConversionsUsed} via API this run`);\n\n // Phase 5: emojis (cache first, capped API calls)\n const emojisList: string[] = new Array(marketsWithPredictions.length).fill(\"\");\n let emojiApiCallsUsed = 0;\n let emojiRateLimitHit = false;\n\n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const statement = statements[i];\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(statement);\n if (cached !== null) {\n emojisList[i] = cached;\n continue;\n }\n if (emojiRateLimitHit || emojiApiCallsUsed >= MAX_EMOJI_API_CALLS_PER_RUN) continue;\n\n emojiApiCallsUsed++;\n try {\n emojisList[i] = await getEmojisForTitle(statement);\n await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 250)); // be gentle with the emoji API\n } catch (err) {\n console.log(\"Emoji API rate limited, skipping remaining emoji requests this run\");\n emojiRateLimitHit = true;\n }\n }\n console.log(`Emojis: ${emojiApiCallsUsed} API calls this run`);\n\n // Phase 6: assemble\n return marketsWithPredictions.map((market, i) => ({\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[i],\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator,\n emojis: emojisList[i],\n }));\n}\n",[161],"7c39e6d4-0f1d-4c78-97bb-0e3cc4213f25","index.ts",23,["D",1783476463705],10,"http","/** @jsxImportSource https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0 */\nimport React, { useEffect, useState } from \"https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0\";\nimport { createRoot } from \"https://esm.sh/react-dom@18.2.0/client\";\nimport type { TimelineEvent } from \"./logic.ts\";\nimport { css } from \"./styles.ts\";\n\nfunction SubscriptionBox() {\n const [email, setEmail] = useState(\"\");\n const [status, setStatus] = useState<\"idle\" | \"loading\" | \"success\" | \"error\">(\"idle\");\n const [message, setMessage] = useState(\"\");\n\n const handleSubmit = async (e: React.FormEvent) => {\n e.preventDefault();\n if (!email.trim()) return;\n setStatus(\"loading\");\n try {\n const response = await fetch(\"/api/subscribe\", {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ email: email.trim() }),\n });\n const result = await response.json();\n if (response.ok) {\n setStatus(\"success\");\n setMessage(\"Thanks for subscribing!\");\n setEmail(\"\");\n } else {\n setStatus(\"error\");\n setMessage(result.error || \"Something went wrong\");\n }\n } catch {\n setStatus(\"error\");\n setMessage(\"Network error, please try again\");\n }\n setTimeout(() => {\n setStatus(\"idle\");\n setMessage(\"\");\n }, 3000);\n };\n\n return (\n

\n Subscribe to Charlie's brain\n

\n {message &&

{message}

}\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction App() {\n const [events, setEvents] = useState([]);\n const [updatedAt, setUpdatedAt] = useState(null);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n const [activeYear, setActiveYear] = useState(null);\n const [darkMode, setDarkMode] = useState(false);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n const mediaQuery = window.matchMedia(\"(prefers-color-scheme: dark)\");\n setDarkMode(mediaQuery.matches);\n const handleThemeChange = (e: MediaQueryListEvent) => setDarkMode(e.matches);\n mediaQuery.addEventListener(\"change\", handleThemeChange);\n return () => mediaQuery.removeEventListener(\"change\", handleThemeChange);\n }, []);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n (async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch(\"/api/timeline-events\");\n if (!response.ok) {\n const body = await response.json().catch(() => null);\n throw new Error(body?.error || `HTTP ${response.status}`);\n }\n const data = await response.json();\n setEvents(data.events || []);\n setUpdatedAt(data.updatedAt || null);\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : \"Failed to load timeline\");\n } finally {\n setLoading(false);\n }\n })();\n }, []);\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp: number) =>\n new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString(\"en-US\", { year: \"numeric\", month: \"short\", day: \"numeric\" });\n const formatYear = (timestamp: number) => new Date(timestamp).getFullYear();\n const formatMonth = (timestamp: number) =>\n new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString(\"en-US\", { year: \"numeric\", month: \"long\" });\n\n const scrollToYear = (year: number) => {\n const element = document.getElementById(`year-${year}`);\n if (element) {\n element.scrollIntoView({ behavior: \"smooth\", block: \"center\" });\n setActiveYear(year);\n }\n };\n\n if (loading) {\n return (\n

Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map((event) => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n // Insert a \"Today\" marker into the timeline\n const today = Date.now();\n const todayEvent: TimelineEvent = {\n id: \"today\",\n statement: \"Today\",\n originalQuestion: \"Today\",\n expectedDate: today,\n confidence: 100,\n volume: 0,\n url: \"#\",\n creator: \"\",\n emojis: \"📅\",\n };\n const eventsWithToday = [...sortedEvents];\n const insertIndex = eventsWithToday.findIndex((e) => e.expectedDate > today);\n if (insertIndex === -1) eventsWithToday.push(todayEvent);\n else eventsWithToday.splice(insertIndex, 0, todayEvent);\n\n return (\n

Years

\n {years.map((year) => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{\" \"}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {\" \"}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{\" \"}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n\n
\n {event.emojis &&
{event.emojis}
}\n\n
\n \n {isTodayEvent ? \"TODAY\" : formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n {event.emojis && {event.emojis}}\n \n
\n\n
\n {isTodayEvent ? (\n
\n Today\n
\n ) : (\n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n \n \n \n )}\n
\n
\n

\n\n \n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")!).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") client();\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/source\") {\n const { parseVal } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/utils/index.ts\");\n return new Response(null, { status: 302, headers: { Location: parseVal().links.self.val } });\n }\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/api/subscribe\" && request.method === \"POST\") {\n return handleSubscribe(request);\n }\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/api/timeline-events\") {\n const { blob } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\");\n const data = await blob.getJSON(\"when-timeline-v1\").catch(() => null);\n if (!data) {\n return Response.json(\n { error: \"Timeline not built yet — check back in a few minutes\" },\n { status: 503 },\n );\n }\n return Response.json(data, {\n headers: { \"Cache-Control\": \"public, max-age=300\" },\n });\n }\n\n return new Response(\n `\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `,\n { headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" } },\n );\n}\n\nasync function handleSubscribe(request: Request): Promise {\n try {\n const { blob } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\");\n const body = await request.json();\n const email = body.email?.trim()?.toLowerCase();\n\n if (!email) {\n return Response.json({ error: \"Email is required\" }, { status: 400 });\n }\n if (!/^[^\\s@]+@[^\\s@]+\\.[^\\s@]+$/.test(email)) {\n return Response.json({ error: \"Invalid email format\" }, { status: 400 });\n }\n\n const subscribers: string[] = (await blob.getJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers\").catch(() => null)) ?? [];\n if (subscribers.includes(email)) {\n return Response.json({ error: \"Email already subscribed\" }, { status: 400 });\n }\n\n const detailed: any[] = (await blob.getJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers-detailed\").catch(() => null)) ?? [];\n subscribers.push(email);\n detailed.push({ email, subscribedAt: new Date().toISOString() });\n\n await blob.setJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers\", subscribers);\n await blob.setJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers-detailed\", detailed);\n\n return Response.json({ success: true, message: \"Subscribed successfully!\" });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Subscription error:\", error);\n return Response.json({ error: \"Internal server error\" }, { status: 500 });\n }\n}\n",[169],"26ee2e22-69cb-11f0-9d62-0224a6c84d84","images.md","6348f694-69c7-11f0-b39a-0224a6c84d84",15,["D",1753498170080],"![image.png](https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public)",[177],"0e624430-fa61-4ed9-8032-53ec1ee6f7e0","cache.ts","ec8d2188-69c6-11f0-9d22-0224a6c84d84",20,["D",1783476356302],"// SQLite-backed caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n// Uses the per-val database (std/sqlite/main.ts).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nconst CONVERSION_TABLE = \"conversion_cache_v2\";\nconst EMOJI_TABLE = \"emoji_cache_v2\";\n\nlet tablesReady = false;\nasync function ensureTables(): Promise {\n if (tablesReady) return;\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (\n question TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n statement TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${EMOJI_TABLE} (\n text TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n emojis TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n ]);\n tablesReady = true;\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedConversion(question: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT statement FROM ${CONVERSION_TABLE} WHERE question = ?`,\n args: [question],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].statement as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached conversion:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedConversion(question: string, statement: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (question, statement) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [question, statement],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching conversion:\", error);\n }\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedEmojis(text: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT emojis FROM ${EMOJI_TABLE} WHERE text = ?`,\n args: [text],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].emojis as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached emojis:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedEmojis(text: string, emojis: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${EMOJI_TABLE} (text, emojis) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [text, emojis],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching emojis:\", error);\n }\n}\n",[184],"fc68dfb8-4fa4-4ca3-b129-a37ba83531a0","build.ts","b3766618-7a71-11f1-81b7-1607ee4eb77e",22,["D",1783476418585],"interval","// Cron: rebuilds the timeline from Manifold and stores it in blob storage.\n// The HTTP endpoint (index.ts) serves this cached data instantly.\nimport { blob } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\";\nimport { fetchTimelineEvents } from \"./logic.ts\";\n\nexport const TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY = \"when-timeline-v1\";\n\nexport async function buildAndStore() {\n const started = Date.now();\n const events = await fetchTimelineEvents();\n await blob.setJSON(TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY, {\n updatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n events,\n });\n console.log(`Built timeline with ${events.length} events in ${((Date.now() - started) / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`);\n return events.length;\n}\n\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n await buildAndStore();\n}\n",[191],"cab1a04b-338c-44bb-89c9-e60ca0122110","README.md","2deb8ba8-7a72-11f1-911d-1607ee4eb77e",24,["D",1783476624032],"# WHEN — A Timeline of the Future\n\nA vertical timeline of the future built from [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets) DATE-market forecasts. Live at .\n\n## Architecture\n\n```mermaid\ngraph LR\n cron[build.ts cron
every 6h] -->|fetchTimelineEvents| logic[logic.ts]\n logic -->|Manifold API| M[api.manifold.markets]\n logic -->|conversion + emoji caches| cache[cache.ts / SQLite]\n cron -->|setJSON when-timeline-v1| B[(blob)]\n http[index.ts HTTP] -->|GET /api/timeline-events| B\n browser[React client
in index.ts] --> http\n```\n\n- **build.ts** (cron, every 6 hours) — fetches all Manifold DATE markets, computes probability-weighted expected dates, converts questions to statements, adds emojis, and stores the result in blob key `when-timeline-v1`. Answer fetches run with concurrency 15; external API calls (statement conversion, emojis) are capped per run and fall back gracefully — caches fill up across runs.\n- **logic.ts** — the build pipeline: `getExpectedDate` handles both bucket-style and cumulative threshold-style markets; `convertQuestionInternally` handles common \"When will X…?\" phrasings via regex before falling back to an external LLM conversion API.\n- **cache.ts** — SQLite (per-val DB) caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n- **index.ts** — HTTP val. Serves the React client, `/api/timeline-events` (cached JSON from blob, instant), `/api/subscribe` (email list stored in blob), and `/source`.\n- **styles.ts** — CSS exported as a string.\n- **moi.md / images.md** — build.moi directory metadata.\n\n## Why the cron?\n\nThe timeline build takes ~90s (400+ markets, one answers request each, plus external APIs) — far past the HTTP request time limit. Previously the build ran per-request over SSE and got killed mid-stream. Now the HTTP endpoint just reads the pre-built blob.\n\n## External dependencies\n\n- Manifold API (`/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE`, `/v0/market/:id/answers`)\n- `texttoemojis.val.run` — emoji tagging (dcm31's val)\n- Question→statement conversion API (dcm31's val)\n\n## Manual rebuild\n\nRun `build.ts` from the Val Town UI, or call `buildAndStore()` from a script.\n",[199],"d0bb8b9f-ee74-4a4c-a1ed-21198bcbe114","scripts","5aab5590-b420-4b84-9a53-d67c154cfd07",25,["D",1783477323676],"directory",[206],"pulls","branches",6,"forks","envVars",{"_220":64,"_222":64},"connections",{"_220":64,"_221":64},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_45":205,"_33":206,"_31":207,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":208,"_146":25,"_40":271,"_13":64,"_35":210,"_37":-5,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":272,"_28":273},{"_45":263,"_33":264,"_31":265,"_144":207,"_43":44,"_42":266,"_146":27,"_40":267,"_13":157,"_35":36,"_37":268,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":269,"_28":270},{"_45":259,"_33":34,"_31":32,"_144":207,"_43":44,"_42":14,"_146":27,"_40":260,"_13":165,"_35":36,"_37":39,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":261,"_28":262},{"_45":198,"_33":199,"_31":200,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":201,"_146":27,"_40":256,"_13":64,"_35":20,"_37":203,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":257,"_28":258},{"_45":190,"_33":191,"_31":192,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":193,"_146":25,"_40":253,"_13":64,"_35":195,"_37":196,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":254,"_28":255},{"_45":183,"_33":184,"_31":185,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":186,"_146":25,"_40":250,"_13":148,"_35":36,"_37":188,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":251,"_28":252},{"_45":176,"_33":177,"_31":178,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":179,"_146":25,"_40":247,"_13":148,"_35":20,"_37":181,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":248,"_28":249},{"_45":168,"_33":169,"_31":59,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":170,"_146":27,"_40":244,"_13":172,"_35":173,"_37":174,"_24":27,"_150":47,"_235":245,"_28":246},{"_45":160,"_33":161,"_31":162,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":163,"_146":25,"_40":241,"_13":165,"_35":36,"_37":166,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":242,"_28":243},{"_45":152,"_33":153,"_31":154,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":155,"_146":25,"_40":238,"_13":157,"_35":20,"_37":158,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":239,"_28":240},{"_45":141,"_33":142,"_31":143,"_144":-5,"_43":44,"_42":145,"_146":27,"_40":234,"_13":148,"_35":36,"_37":149,"_24":27,"_150":-5,"_235":236,"_28":237},["D",1754049891206],"children",[],[142],["D",1753498183371],[],[153],["D",1783476410072],[],[161],["D",1783476463705],[],[169],["D",1753498170080],[],[177],["D",1783476356302],[],[184],["D",1783476418585],[],[191],["D",1783476624032],[],[199],"a1531a6f-856c-47ce-bebf-72e147b63a9f",["D",1783477931765],[],[206,34],"70b04b79-906c-4e96-935f-160ac9f8cb91","list-missing-emojis.ts","cef443c2-7a73-11f1-b8f5-1607ee4eb77e",32,["D",1783477900700],"// One-off: print FULL statements missing emojis, as JSON.\nimport { blob } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\";\nconst data = await blob.getJSON(\"when-timeline-v1\");\nconst missing = (data?.events ?? []).filter((e: any) => !e.emojis).map((e: any) => e.statement);\nconsole.log(JSON.stringify(missing));\n",[],[206,264],["D",1783477323676],[224,225],[206],["D",1753454022202],["D",1789527031073],{"_101":100,"_109":105},{"_101":100,"_102":103,"_104":105,"_18":57,"_106":107,"_108":27},{"_13":90,"_33":91,"_45":44,"_92":46,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":-5,"_98":47,"_99":100},"ctx",{"_83":-5,"_129":312,"_313":314,"_315":316,"_317":27,"_318":27,"_319":27,"_320":25,"_321":-5,"_322":-7,"_323":-7,"_324":64,"_325":27,"_326":27,"_327":-5,"_328":27,"_329":27,"_330":27,"_331":-5},"ENV",{"_283":284,"_285":286,"_287":91,"_288":289,"_290":291,"_292":293,"_294":295,"_296":297,"_298":299,"_300":301,"_302":303,"_304":305,"_306":307,"_308":309,"_310":311},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

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