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Cron: rebuilds the timeline from Manifold and stores it in blob storage.\n// The HTTP endpoint (index.ts) serves this cached data instantly.\nimport { blob } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\";\nimport { fetchTimelineEvents } from \"./logic.ts\";\n\nexport const TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY = \"when-timeline-v1\";\n\nexport async function buildAndStore() {\n const started = Date.now();\n const events = await fetchTimelineEvents();\n await blob.setJSON(TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY, {\n updatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n events,\n });\n console.log(`Built timeline with ${events.length} events in ${((Date.now() - started) / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`);\n return events.length;\n}\n\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n await buildAndStore();\n}\n","createdAt",["D",1783476418585],"branchVersion","branchId","5cbe35ae-6964-11f0-9ae6-0224a6c84d84","id","5cbdcc4a-6964-11f0-9ae6-0224a6c84d84","when",["D",1753454022202],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","a 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Styles for the timeline application\nexport const css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n transition: background-color 0.3s ease, color 0.3s ease;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n /* Dark mode styles */\n .app-container.dark {\n background-color: #0f172a;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* Subscription Box Styles */\n .subscription-box {\n background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.03);\n border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 16px 20px;\n margin-bottom: 30px;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-box {\n background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);\n border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);\n }\n\n .subscription-content {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 12px;\n flex-wrap: wrap;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .subscription-text {\n font-size: 0.95em;\n color: #64748b;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-text {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .subscription-form {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n padding: 6px 12px;\n border: 1px solid #d1d5db;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n background: white;\n color: #374151;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n min-width: 160px;\n }\n\n .subscription-input:focus {\n outline: none;\n border-color: #000000;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #475569;\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input:focus {\n border-color: #ffffff;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);\n }\n\n .subscription-input::placeholder {\n color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-input::placeholder {\n color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .subscription-input:disabled {\n opacity: 0.6;\n cursor: not-allowed;\n }\n\n .subscription-button {\n padding: 6px 16px;\n background: #000000;\n color: white;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .subscription-button:hover:not(:disabled) {\n background: #374151;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-button {\n background: #ffffff;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-button:hover:not(:disabled) {\n background: #e5e7eb;\n }\n\n .subscription-button:disabled {\n cursor: not-allowed;\n opacity: 0.6;\n }\n\n .subscription-button.loading {\n cursor: wait;\n }\n\n .subscription-message {\n text-align: center;\n margin-top: 8px;\n padding: 4px 8px;\n border-radius: 4px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .subscription-message.success {\n color: #059669;\n background: rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.2);\n }\n\n .subscription-message.error {\n color: #dc2626;\n background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.2);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-message.success {\n color: #34d399;\n background: rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.2);\n }\n\n .dark .subscription-message.error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.2);\n }\n\n /* Scrollable Year Navigation */\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n max-height: 80vh;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav {\n background: #1e293b;\n border: 1px solid #334155;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-title {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll {\n overflow-y: auto;\n flex: 1;\n scrollbar-width: thin;\n scrollbar-color: #cbd5e1 transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar {\n width: 4px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-track {\n background: transparent;\n }\n\n .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #cbd5e1;\n border-radius: 2px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-scroll::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {\n background-color: #475569;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #334155;\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #000000;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header {\n border-bottom: 2px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header h1 {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header p {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #000000;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-header a {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .byline a {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .footer {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n border-top: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n margin-top: 50px;\n }\n\n .dark .footer {\n border-top: 1px solid #334155;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .credits a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .credits a {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n padding: 50px 20px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n max-width: 1000px;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-wrapper {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n /* TIMELINE STYLING - BLACK THEME */\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n list-style: none;\n }\n\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n left: 0;\n width: 3px;\n height: 100%;\n background: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 120px;\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n /* Emoji positioning - left side for non-mobile - FIXED */\n .emojis-left {\n position: absolute;\n left: -100px;\n top: 0;\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.3em;\n line-height: 1.8;\n text-align: center;\n width: 80px;\n display: none;\n white-space: nowrap;\n overflow: hidden;\n }\n\n /* Show emojis on left for non-mobile (768px+) */\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-left {\n display: block;\n }\n }\n\n /* Mobile emoji positioning - next to date */\n .emojis-mobile {\n font-family: 'Noto Color Emoji', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', sans-serif;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n margin-left: 8px;\n display: inline;\n white-space: nowrap;\n }\n\n @media (min-width: 768px) {\n .emojis-mobile {\n display: none;\n }\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n line-height: 0.9;\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #000000;\n top: 50%;\n left: -120px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 80px;\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n .dark .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event time {\n display: inline-block;\n }\n\n .today-date {\n color: #dc2626 !important;\n font-weight: 700 !important;\n }\n\n .dark .today-date {\n color: #fca5a5 !important;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .details {\n margin-top: 15px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .event-statement {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .today-marker .event-statement {\n color: #dc2626;\n font-weight: 700;\n }\n\n .dark .today-marker .event-statement {\n color: #fca5a5;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #60a5fa;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #000000;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator {\n color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #000000;\n }\n\n .dark .year-separator::before {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .month-separator {\n font-size: 1.4em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #374151;\n margin: 30px 0 20px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 30px;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator {\n color: #d1d5db;\n }\n\n .month-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 25px;\n height: 2px;\n background-color: #6b7280;\n }\n\n .dark .month-separator::before {\n background-color: #9ca3af;\n }\n\n .today-event {\n background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.05);\n border-radius: 8px;\n padding: 10px;\n margin: 20px 0;\n }\n\n .dark .today-event {\n background: rgba(252, 165, 165, 0.1);\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n text-align: center;\n padding: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-container {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #000000;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n .dark .loading-spinner {\n border: 3px solid #334155;\n border-top: 3px solid #ffffff;\n }\n\n .progress-info {\n max-width: 500px;\n width: 100%;\n }\n\n .progress-phase {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n font-weight: 600;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n color: #1e293b;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-phase {\n color: #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .progress-message {\n font-size: 0.9em;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n color: #64748b;\n word-break: break-word;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-message {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .progress-bar-container {\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .progress-bar {\n width: 100%;\n height: 8px;\n background-color: #e2e8f0;\n border-radius: 4px;\n overflow: hidden;\n margin-bottom: 8px;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-bar {\n background-color: #334155;\n }\n\n .progress-fill {\n height: 100%;\n background-color: #000000;\n transition: width 0.3s ease;\n border-radius: 4px;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-fill {\n background-color: #ffffff;\n }\n\n .progress-text {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n }\n\n .dark .progress-text {\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n .dark .error {\n color: #fca5a5;\n background: #1f1f1f;\n border: 1px solid #374151;\n }\n\n /* Mobile responsive - improved */\n @media (max-width: 700px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 60px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 40px;\n left: -60px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 10px;\n padding: 12px 6px;\n max-height: 70vh;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 6px 8px;\n min-width: 50px;\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 15px;\n }\n\n .progress-info {\n max-width: 100%;\n }\n\n /* Subscription box mobile adjustments */\n .subscription-content {\n flex-direction: column;\n gap: 8px;\n }\n\n .subscription-form {\n width: 100%;\n justify-content: center;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n min-width: 140px;\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 200px;\n }\n }\n\n @media (max-width: 480px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 15px 10px;\n padding-right: 70px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 2.5em;\n }\n \n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 50px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n width: 30px;\n left: -50px;\n }\n \n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.1em;\n }\n \n .external-link-icon {\n width: 14px;\n height: 14px;\n }\n \n .year-nav {\n right: 5px;\n padding: 10px 5px;\n max-height: 60vh;\n }\n \n .year-nav-btn {\n padding: 5px 6px;\n min-width: 45px;\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n padding: 10px;\n }\n\n .progress-phase {\n font-size: 1em;\n }\n\n .progress-message {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n }\n\n .footer {\n padding: 30px 15px;\n }\n\n .credits {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n }\n\n /* Subscription box smaller mobile adjustments */\n .subscription-box {\n padding: 12px 16px;\n }\n\n .subscription-text {\n font-size: 0.9em;\n }\n\n .subscription-input {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n padding: 5px 10px;\n }\n\n .subscription-button {\n font-size: 0.85em;\n padding: 5px 12px;\n }\n }\n`;","label",[137],"2eda4f1c-69cb-11f0-afd5-0224a6c84d84","moi.md","62b66cde-69c7-11f0-a84e-0224a6c84d84",16,["D",1753498183371],4,"---\ntitle: \"When\"\ndescription: \"A vertical emoji-marked timeline of Manifold date markets.\"\nimageUrl: \"https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public\"\nurl: \"https://when.val.run\"\nauthor: \"dcm31\"\ntags: \n---",[149],"a4d93900-4288-4fc5-b44e-563e7a2158e1","logic.ts","460f9dcc-69bc-11f0-ab7f-0224a6c84d84",21,["D",1783476410072],3,"// Timeline building logic. Run by build.ts (cron), NOT per-request.\nimport { getCachedConversion, setCachedConversion, getCachedEmojis, setCachedEmojis } from \"./cache.ts\";\n\n// Caps per build run so a cron invocation stays well under the time limit.\n// Uncached items fall back gracefully and get picked up on later runs as caches fill.\nconst MAX_API_CONVERSIONS_PER_RUN = 25;\nconst MAX_EMOJI_API_CALLS_PER_RUN = 50;\nconst ANSWER_FETCH_CONCURRENCY = 15;\n\nconst CONVERT_API_URL = \"https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert\";\nconst EMOJI_API_URL = \"https://texttoemojis.val.run/api\";\n\n// ---------- Question → statement conversion ----------\n\n// Smart internal conversion with proper capitalization and punctuation\nexport function convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n };\n\n // \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBeMatch = question.match(/^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(/^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${willHappenMatch[1].trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // \"When will X ...?\" -> \"X will ...\" (common verbs)\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(\n /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|repair|damage|delete).+)\\??$/i,\n );\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearMatch = question.match(/^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i);\n if (yearMatch) {\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${yearMatch[1].trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction fallbackStatement(question: string): string {\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, \"\").replace(/\\?$/, \"\") + \" will happen\";\n const cleaned = fallback.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n}\n\nfunction cleanApiResponse(text: string): string {\n const cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, \".\");\n return cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n}\n\n// ---------- Emoji fetching ----------\n\nasync function getEmojisForTitle(title: string): Promise {\n try {\n const response = await fetch(`${EMOJI_API_URL}?text=${encodeURIComponent(title)}&count=3`);\n if (response.status === 429) {\n throw new Error(\"429 rate limited\");\n }\n if (!response.ok) {\n console.error(`Emoji API error: ${response.status} ${response.statusText}`);\n return \"\";\n }\n const data = await response.json();\n const emojis = data.emojis || \"\";\n // Only cache successes so failures are retried on later runs\n if (emojis) await setCachedEmojis(title, emojis);\n return emojis;\n } catch (error) {\n if (error instanceof Error && error.message.includes(\"429\")) throw error;\n console.error(\"Error fetching emojis:\", error);\n return \"\";\n }\n}\n\n// ---------- Expected date algorithm ----------\n\nfunction sum(arr: number[]): number {\n return arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n}\n\nfunction filterDefined(arr: (T | null | undefined)[]): T[] {\n return arr.filter((x): x is T => x != null);\n}\n\nfunction getAnswerProbability(contract: any, answerId: string): number {\n const answer = contract.answers.find((a: any) => a.id === answerId);\n return answer?.prob || 0;\n}\n\nfunction getInitialAnswerProbability(_contract: any, answer: any): number {\n return answer.prob || 0;\n}\n\n// Handles both bucket-style markets (probs sum to ~1) and threshold-style\n// cumulative markets (e.g. \"by 2027 / by 2028 / ...\").\nexport function getExpectedDate(contract: any, initialOnly?: boolean): number {\n const { answers, isResolved } = contract;\n\n const totalProb = answers.reduce((s: number, a: any) => s + (a.prob || 0), 0);\n const shouldAnswersSumToOne = Math.abs(totalProb - 1) < 0.1;\n\n // For threshold-style markets, drop resolved-NO answers (0% probability)\n const activeAnswers = shouldAnswersSumToOne\n ? answers\n : answers.filter((a: any) => !a.resolution || a.resolution !== \"NO\");\n\n const answerProbabilities = filterDefined(\n activeAnswers.map((a: any) =>\n initialOnly\n ? getInitialAnswerProbability(contract, a)\n : isResolved\n ? a.prob\n : getAnswerProbability(contract, a.id)\n ),\n );\n\n const answerMidpoints = activeAnswers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n\n if (shouldAnswersSumToOne) {\n // Bucket-style: simple weighted average\n return sum(answerProbabilities.map((p, i) => p * answerMidpoints[i]));\n }\n\n // Threshold-style: convert cumulative probs to discrete period probs\n const discreteProbs = [answerProbabilities[0]];\n for (let i = 1; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[i] - answerProbabilities[i - 1]);\n }\n const afterLastProb = 1 - answerProbabilities[answerProbabilities.length - 1];\n\n let expectedValue = 0;\n for (let i = 0; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n expectedValue += answerMidpoints[i] * discreteProbs[i];\n }\n\n // \"After the last threshold\" tail\n if (afterLastProb > 0 && answerMidpoints.length > 0) {\n const lastMidpoint = answerMidpoints[answerMidpoints.length - 1];\n const allMidpoints = answers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n const timePeriod = allMidpoints.length > 1\n ? allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 1] - allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 2]\n : 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 30-day default\n expectedValue += (lastMidpoint + timePeriod) * afterLastProb;\n }\n\n return expectedValue;\n}\n\n// ---------- Types ----------\n\nexport interface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n emojis?: string;\n}\n\n// ---------- Helpers ----------\n\nasync function mapWithConcurrency(\n items: T[],\n concurrency: number,\n fn: (item: T, index: number) => Promise,\n): Promise {\n const results: R[] = new Array(items.length);\n let next = 0;\n const workers = Array.from({ length: Math.min(concurrency, items.length) }, async () => {\n while (true) {\n const i = next++;\n if (i >= items.length) return;\n results[i] = await fn(items[i], i);\n }\n });\n await Promise.all(workers);\n return results;\n}\n\n// ---------- Main build ----------\n\nexport async function fetchTimelineEvents(): Promise {\n // Phase 1: fetch all DATE markets (paginated)\n const allMarkets: any[] = [];\n let offset = 0;\n const limit = 100;\n while (true) {\n const response = await fetch(\n `https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=${limit}&offset=${offset}`,\n );\n const markets = await response.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(markets) || markets.length === 0) break;\n allMarkets.push(...markets);\n if (markets.length < limit) break;\n offset += limit;\n }\n console.log(`Fetched ${allMarkets.length} total DATE markets`);\n if (allMarkets.length === 0) throw new Error(\"No DATE markets found\");\n\n // Phase 2: filter to open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter((m) => !m.isResolved && m.closeTime > now);\n console.log(`Found ${openMarkets.length} open DATE markets`);\n\n // Phase 3: fetch answers in parallel and compute expected dates\n const processed = await mapWithConcurrency(openMarkets, ANSWER_FETCH_CONCURRENCY, async (market) => {\n try {\n const res = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n if (!res.ok) return null;\n const answers = await res.json();\n if (!Array.isArray(answers) || answers.length === 0) return null;\n\n const expectedDate = getExpectedDate({ ...market, answers });\n if (!expectedDate || isNaN(expectedDate) || expectedDate < now) return null;\n\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max: any, a: any) => (a.prob > max.prob ? a : max), answers[0]);\n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url + \"?r=Q2hhcmxpZQ\",\n creator: market.creatorName,\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n });\n const marketsWithPredictions = filterDefined(processed);\n console.log(`Valid future markets: ${marketsWithPredictions.length}`);\n if (marketsWithPredictions.length === 0) throw new Error(\"No valid future markets found\");\n\n // Phase 4: convert questions to statements (cache → internal regex → API, capped)\n const statements: string[] = new Array(marketsWithPredictions.length);\n let apiConversionsUsed = 0;\n\n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const question = marketsWithPredictions[i].question;\n\n const cached = await getCachedConversion(question);\n if (cached) {\n statements[i] = cached;\n continue;\n }\n\n const internal = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n if (internal) {\n statements[i] = internal;\n await setCachedConversion(question, internal);\n continue;\n }\n\n if (apiConversionsUsed >= MAX_API_CONVERSIONS_PER_RUN) {\n // Over budget: use fallback WITHOUT caching so a future run retries via API\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n continue;\n }\n\n apiConversionsUsed++;\n try {\n const res = await fetch(CONVERT_API_URL, {\n method: \"POST\",\n headers: { \"Content-Type\": \"application/json\" },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question }),\n });\n if (res.ok) {\n const result = await res.json();\n const statement = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n statements[i] = statement;\n await setCachedConversion(question, statement);\n } else {\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question:`, err);\n statements[i] = fallbackStatement(question);\n }\n }\n console.log(`Conversions: ${apiConversionsUsed} via API this run`);\n\n // Phase 5: emojis (cache first, capped API calls)\n const emojisList: string[] = new Array(marketsWithPredictions.length).fill(\"\");\n let emojiApiCallsUsed = 0;\n let emojiRateLimitHit = false;\n\n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const statement = statements[i];\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(statement);\n if (cached !== null) {\n emojisList[i] = cached;\n continue;\n }\n if (emojiRateLimitHit || emojiApiCallsUsed >= MAX_EMOJI_API_CALLS_PER_RUN) continue;\n\n emojiApiCallsUsed++;\n try {\n emojisList[i] = await getEmojisForTitle(statement);\n await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 250)); // be gentle with the emoji API\n } catch (err) {\n console.log(\"Emoji API rate limited, skipping remaining emoji requests this run\");\n emojiRateLimitHit = true;\n }\n }\n console.log(`Emojis: ${emojiApiCallsUsed} API calls this run`);\n\n // Phase 6: assemble\n return marketsWithPredictions.map((market, i) => ({\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[i],\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator,\n emojis: emojisList[i],\n }));\n}\n",[157],"0083d8c0-6edc-11f0-b0ef-0224a6c84d84","index.ts",19,["D",1754055162883],9,"http","/** @jsxImportSource https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0 */\nimport React, { useState, useEffect } from \"https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0\";\nimport { createRoot } from \"https://esm.sh/react-dom@18.2.0/client\";\nimport { fetchTimelineEvents, type TimelineEvent, type ProgressUpdate } from \"./logic.ts\";\nimport { css } from \"./styles.ts\";\n\nfunction SubscriptionBox() {\n const [email, setEmail] = useState('');\n const [status, setStatus] = useState<'idle' | 'loading' | 'success' | 'error'>('idle');\n const [message, setMessage] = useState('');\n\n const handleSubmit = async (e: React.FormEvent) => {\n e.preventDefault();\n if (!email.trim()) return;\n\n setStatus('loading');\n \n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/subscribe', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ email: email.trim() }),\n });\n\n const result = await response.json();\n\n if (response.ok) {\n setStatus('success');\n setMessage('Thanks for subscribing!');\n setEmail('');\n } else {\n setStatus('error');\n setMessage(result.error || 'Something went wrong');\n }\n } catch (error) {\n setStatus('error');\n setMessage('Network error, please try again');\n }\n\n // Reset status after 3 seconds\n setTimeout(() => {\n setStatus('idle');\n setMessage('');\n }, 3000);\n };\n\n return (\n

\n Subscribe to Charlie's brain\n

\n {message && (\n

\n {message}\n

\n )}\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction App() {\n const [events, setEvents] = useState([]);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n const [activeYear, setActiveYear] = useState(null);\n const [darkMode, setDarkMode] = useState(false);\n const [progress, setProgress] = useState(null);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n // Check for system dark mode preference\n const mediaQuery = window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: dark)');\n setDarkMode(mediaQuery.matches);\n \n const handleThemeChange = (e: MediaQueryListEvent) => {\n setDarkMode(e.matches);\n };\n \n mediaQuery.addEventListener('change', handleThemeChange);\n return () => mediaQuery.removeEventListener('change', handleThemeChange);\n }, []);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n loadTimelineEvents();\n }, []);\n\n const loadTimelineEvents = async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/timeline-events');\n \n if (!response.ok) {\n throw new Error(`HTTP ${response.status}: ${response.statusText}`);\n }\n \n const reader = response.body?.getReader();\n if (!reader) {\n throw new Error('No response body reader available');\n }\n \n const decoder = new TextDecoder();\n let buffer = '';\n \n while (true) {\n const { done, value } = await reader.read();\n if (done) break;\n \n buffer += decoder.decode(value, { stream: true });\n const lines = buffer.split('\\n');\n buffer = lines.pop() || '';\n \n for (const line of lines) {\n if (line.startsWith('data: ')) {\n try {\n const data = JSON.parse(line.slice(6));\n \n if (data.type === 'progress') {\n setProgress(data.progress);\n } else if (data.type === 'complete') {\n setEvents(data.events);\n setLoading(false);\n setProgress(null);\n return;\n } else if (data.type === 'error') {\n throw new Error(data.error);\n }\n } catch (parseError) {\n console.error('Error parsing SSE data:', parseError);\n }\n }\n }\n }\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'Failed to load timeline');\n setLoading(false);\n setProgress(null);\n }\n };\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'short',\n day: 'numeric'\n });\n };\n\n const formatYear = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).getFullYear();\n };\n\n const formatMonth = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'long'\n });\n };\n\n const scrollToYear = (year: number) => {\n const element = document.getElementById(`year-${year}`);\n if (element) {\n element.scrollIntoView({ behavior: 'smooth', block: 'center' });\n setActiveYear(year);\n }\n };\n\n const getProgressPercentage = () => {\n if (!progress || progress.total === 0) return 0;\n return Math.round((progress.current / progress.total) * 100);\n };\n\n if (loading) {\n return (\n

\n {progress ? (\n

{progress.phase.replace('-', ' ').toUpperCase()}

{progress.message}

\n {progress.current}/{progress.total} ({getProgressPercentage()}%)\n

\n ) : (\n

Loading timeline...

\n )}\n

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n // Sort events by expected date\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n \n // Get unique years for navigation\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map(event => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n // Add today's date to events\n const today = Date.now();\n const todayEvent = {\n id: 'today',\n statement: 'Today',\n originalQuestion: 'Today',\n expectedDate: today,\n confidence: 100,\n volume: 0,\n url: '#',\n creator: '',\n emojis: '📅'\n };\n\n // Insert today into the sorted events\n const eventsWithToday = [...sortedEvents];\n let todayInserted = false;\n for (let i = 0; i < eventsWithToday.length; i++) {\n if (eventsWithToday[i].expectedDate > today) {\n eventsWithToday.splice(i, 0, todayEvent);\n todayInserted = true;\n break;\n }\n }\n if (!todayInserted) {\n eventsWithToday.push(todayEvent);\n }\n\n return (\n

\n {/* Scrollable Year Navigation */}\n

Years

\n {years.map(year => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{' '}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {' '}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{' '}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n \n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {month}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n {/* Emojis positioned to the left of timeline for non-mobile */}\n {event.emojis && (\n
\n {event.emojis}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n \n {isTodayEvent ? 'TODAY' : formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n {/* Emojis next to date on mobile */}\n {event.emojis && {event.emojis}}\n \n
\n \n
\n {isTodayEvent ? (\n
\n Today\n
\n ) : (\n \n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n )}\n
\n
\n

\n\n {/* OpenMoji attribution at bottom */}\n \n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n // Handle subscription endpoint\n if (url.pathname === '/api/subscribe' && request.method === 'POST') {\n try {\n const { blob } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\");\n const body = await request.json();\n const email = body.email?.trim();\n \n if (!email) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Email is required' }), {\n status: 400,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Simple email validation\n const emailRegex = /^[^\\s@]+@[^\\s@]+\\.[^\\s@]+$/;\n if (!emailRegex.test(email)) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Invalid email format' }), {\n status: 400,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Get existing subscribers\n let subscribers: string[] = [];\n try {\n const existingData = await blob.getJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers\");\n if (Array.isArray(existingData)) {\n subscribers = existingData;\n }\n } catch (error) {\n // File doesn't exist yet, that's fine\n }\n \n // Check if email already exists\n if (subscribers.includes(email.toLowerCase())) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Email already subscribed' }), {\n status: 400,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n \n // Add new subscriber with timestamp\n const newSubscriber = {\n email: email.toLowerCase(),\n subscribedAt: new Date().toISOString()\n };\n \n // Get detailed subscribers list\n let detailedSubscribers: any[] = [];\n try {\n const existingDetailed = await blob.getJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers-detailed\");\n if (Array.isArray(existingDetailed)) {\n detailedSubscribers = existingDetailed;\n }\n } catch (error) {\n // File doesn't exist yet, that's fine\n }\n \n // Add to both lists\n subscribers.push(email.toLowerCase());\n detailedSubscribers.push(newSubscriber);\n \n // Save both versions\n await blob.setJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers\", subscribers);\n await blob.setJSON(\"charlie-brain-subscribers-detailed\", detailedSubscribers);\n \n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ success: true, message: 'Subscribed successfully!' }), {\n status: 200,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n \n } catch (error) {\n console.error('Subscription error:', error);\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: 'Internal server error' }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/timeline-events') {\n // Use Server-Sent Events for progress updates\n const stream = new ReadableStream({\n start(controller) {\n const encoder = new TextEncoder();\n \n const sendProgress = (progress: ProgressUpdate) => {\n const data = `data: ${JSON.stringify({ type: 'progress', progress })}\\n\\n`;\n controller.enqueue(encoder.encode(data));\n };\n \n const sendComplete = (events: TimelineEvent[]) => {\n const data = `data: ${JSON.stringify({ type: 'complete', events })}\\n\\n`;\n controller.enqueue(encoder.encode(data));\n controller.close();\n };\n \n const sendError = (error: string) => {\n const data = `data: ${JSON.stringify({ type: 'error', error })}\\n\\n`;\n controller.enqueue(encoder.encode(data));\n controller.close();\n };\n \n // Start the async process\n fetchTimelineEvents(sendProgress)\n .then(sendComplete)\n .catch((error) => sendError(error.message));\n }\n });\n \n return new Response(stream, {\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'text/event-stream',\n 'Cache-Control': 'no-cache',\n 'Connection': 'keep-alive',\n 'Access-Control-Allow-Origin': '*',\n 'Access-Control-Allow-Headers': 'Content-Type'\n }\n });\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}",[165],"26ee2e22-69cb-11f0-9d62-0224a6c84d84","images.md","6348f694-69c7-11f0-b39a-0224a6c84d84",15,["D",1753498170080],"![image.png](https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public)",[173],"0e624430-fa61-4ed9-8032-53ec1ee6f7e0","cache.ts","ec8d2188-69c6-11f0-9d22-0224a6c84d84",20,["D",1783476356302],"// SQLite-backed caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n// Uses the per-val database (std/sqlite/main.ts).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nconst CONVERSION_TABLE = \"conversion_cache_v2\";\nconst EMOJI_TABLE = \"emoji_cache_v2\";\n\nlet tablesReady = false;\nasync function ensureTables(): Promise {\n if (tablesReady) return;\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (\n question TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n statement TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${EMOJI_TABLE} (\n text TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n emojis TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n ]);\n tablesReady = true;\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedConversion(question: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT statement FROM ${CONVERSION_TABLE} WHERE question = ?`,\n args: [question],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].statement as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached conversion:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedConversion(question: string, statement: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (question, statement) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [question, statement],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching conversion:\", error);\n }\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedEmojis(text: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT emojis FROM ${EMOJI_TABLE} WHERE text = ?`,\n args: [text],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].emojis as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached emojis:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedEmojis(text: string, emojis: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${EMOJI_TABLE} (text, emojis) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [text, emojis],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching emojis:\", error);\n 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