Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map((event) => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n // Insert a \"Today\" marker into the timeline\n const today = Date.now();\n const todayEvent: TimelineEvent = {\n id: \"today\",\n statement: \"Today\",\n originalQuestion: \"Today\",\n expectedDate: today,\n confidence: 100,\n volume: 0,\n url: \"#\",\n creator: \"\",\n emojis: \"📅\",\n };\n const eventsWithToday = [...sortedEvents];\n const insertIndex = eventsWithToday.findIndex((e) => e.expectedDate > today);\n if (insertIndex === -1) eventsWithToday.push(todayEvent);\n else eventsWithToday.splice(insertIndex, 0, todayEvent);\n\n return (\n

Years

\n {years.map((year) => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{\" \"}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {\" \"}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{\" \"}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n
\n 📅 Today · {formatDate(today)}\n \n
\n
\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n {isFirstOfMonth && !isFirstOfYear &&
{month}
}\n\n
\n {event.emojis &&
{event.emojis}
}\n\n
\n \n {formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n {event.emojis && {event.emojis}}\n \n
\n\n
\n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n

\n\n \n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")!).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") client();\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/source\") {\n const { parseVal } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/utils/index.ts\");\n return new Response(null, { status: 302, headers: { Location: parseVal().links.self.val } });\n }\n\n if (url.pathname === \"/api/timeline-events\") {\n const { blob } = await import(\"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\");\n const data = await blob.getJSON(\"when-timeline-v1\").catch(() => null);\n if (!data) {\n return Response.json(\n { error: \"Timeline not built yet — check back in a few minutes\" },\n { status: 503 },\n );\n }\n return Response.json(data, {\n headers: { \"Cache-Control\": \"public, max-age=300\" },\n });\n }\n\n return new Response(\n `\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `,\n { headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" } },\n );\n}\n",[71],"26ee2e22-69cb-11f0-9d62-0224a6c84d84",["D",1753498170080],"![image.png](https://imagedelivery.net/iHX6Ovru0O7AjmyT5yZRoA/637650b1-4228-4fcd-413d-5eb9e1576700/public)",[188],"0e624430-fa61-4ed9-8032-53ec1ee6f7e0",20,["D",1783476356302],"// SQLite-backed caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n// Uses the per-val database (std/sqlite/main.ts).\nimport { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nconst CONVERSION_TABLE = \"conversion_cache_v2\";\nconst EMOJI_TABLE = \"emoji_cache_v2\";\n\nlet tablesReady = false;\nasync function ensureTables(): Promise {\n if (tablesReady) return;\n await sqlite.batch([\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (\n question TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n statement TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ${EMOJI_TABLE} (\n text TEXT PRIMARY KEY,\n emojis TEXT NOT NULL,\n created_at DATETIME DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP\n )`,\n ]);\n tablesReady = true;\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedConversion(question: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT statement FROM ${CONVERSION_TABLE} WHERE question = ?`,\n args: [question],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].statement as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached conversion:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedConversion(question: string, statement: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${CONVERSION_TABLE} (question, statement) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [question, statement],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching conversion:\", error);\n }\n}\n\nexport async function getCachedEmojis(text: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n const result = await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `SELECT emojis FROM ${EMOJI_TABLE} WHERE text = ?`,\n args: [text],\n });\n if (result.rows.length > 0) return result.rows[0].emojis as string;\n return null;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error getting cached emojis:\", error);\n return null;\n }\n}\n\nexport async function setCachedEmojis(text: string, emojis: string): Promise {\n try {\n await ensureTables();\n await sqlite.execute({\n sql: `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO ${EMOJI_TABLE} (text, emojis) VALUES (?, ?)`,\n args: [text, emojis],\n });\n } catch (error) {\n console.error(\"Error caching emojis:\", error);\n }\n}\n",[170],"fc68dfb8-4fa4-4ca3-b129-a37ba83531a0","build.ts","b3766618-7a71-11f1-81b7-1607ee4eb77e",22,["D",1783476418585],"interval","// Cron: rebuilds the timeline from Manifold and stores it in blob storage.\n// The HTTP endpoint (index.ts) serves this cached data instantly.\nimport { blob } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/blob\";\nimport { fetchTimelineEvents } from \"./logic.ts\";\n\nexport const TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY = \"when-timeline-v1\";\n\nexport async function buildAndStore() {\n const started = Date.now();\n const events = await fetchTimelineEvents();\n await blob.setJSON(TIMELINE_BLOB_KEY, {\n updatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n events,\n });\n console.log(`Built timeline with ${events.length} events in ${((Date.now() - started) / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`);\n return events.length;\n}\n\nexport default async function (interval: Interval) {\n await buildAndStore();\n}\n",[332],"44cee347-536c-4eab-ba60-6285db59ff80","README.md","2deb8ba8-7a72-11f1-911d-1607ee4eb77e",44,["D",1783480256927],"# WHEN — A Timeline of the Future\n\nA vertical timeline of the future built from [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets) DATE-market forecasts. Live at .\n\n## Architecture\n\n```mermaid\ngraph LR\n cron[build.ts cron
every 6h] -->|fetchTimelineEvents| logic[logic.ts]\n logic -->|Manifold API| M[api.manifold.markets]\n logic -->|conversion + emoji caches| cache[cache.ts / SQLite]\n cron -->|setJSON when-timeline-v1| B[(blob)]\n http[index.ts HTTP] -->|GET /api/timeline-events| B\n browser[React client
in index.ts] --> http\n```\n\n- **build.ts** (cron, every 6 hours) — fetches all Manifold DATE markets, computes probability-weighted expected dates, converts questions to statements, adds emojis, and stores the result in blob key `when-timeline-v1`. Answer fetches run with concurrency 15; external API calls (statement conversion, emojis) are capped per run and fall back gracefully — caches fill up across runs.\n- **logic.ts** — the build pipeline: `getExpectedDate` handles both bucket-style and cumulative threshold-style markets; `convertQuestionInternally` handles common \"When will X…?\" phrasings via regex before falling back to an external LLM conversion API.\n- **cache.ts** — SQLite (per-val DB) caches for question→statement conversions and statement→emojis.\n- **index.ts** — HTTP val. Serves the React client, `/api/timeline-events` (cached JSON from blob, instant), and `/source`.\n- **styles.ts** — CSS exported as a string.\n- **moi.md / images.md** — build.moi directory metadata.\n\n## Why the cron?\n\nThe timeline build takes ~90s (400+ markets, one answers request each, plus external APIs) — far past the HTTP request time limit. Previously the build ran per-request over SSE and got killed mid-stream. Now the HTTP endpoint just reads the pre-built blob.\n\n## External dependencies\n\n- Manifold API (`/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE`, `/v0/market/:id/answers`)\n- `texttoemojis.val.run` — emoji tagging (dcm31's val)\n- Question→statement conversion API (dcm31's val)\n\n## Manual rebuild\n\nRun `build.ts` from the Val Town UI, or call `buildAndStore()` from a script.\n",[340],"d0bb8b9f-ee74-4a4c-a1ed-21198bcbe114","scripts","5aab5590-b420-4b84-9a53-d67c154cfd07",25,["D",1783477323676],"directory",[347],"pulls","branches","forks","envVars",{"_166":168,"_361":168},"connections",{"_166":168,"_360":168},"unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_41":346,"_13":347,"_69":348,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":349,"_301":226,"_45":396,"_47":168,"_72":351,"_303":-5,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":397,"_267":398},{"_41":339,"_13":340,"_69":341,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":342,"_301":226,"_45":393,"_47":20,"_72":60,"_303":344,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":394,"_267":395},{"_41":331,"_13":332,"_69":333,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":334,"_301":226,"_45":390,"_47":168,"_72":336,"_303":337,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":391,"_267":392},{"_41":326,"_13":170,"_69":169,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":327,"_301":226,"_45":387,"_47":20,"_72":128,"_303":329,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":388,"_267":389},{"_41":322,"_13":188,"_69":187,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":210,"_301":226,"_45":384,"_47":20,"_72":60,"_303":324,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":385,"_267":386},{"_41":317,"_13":71,"_69":70,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":252,"_301":226,"_45":381,"_47":319,"_72":73,"_303":320,"_74":24,"_305":14,"_372":382,"_267":383},{"_41":312,"_13":127,"_69":126,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":313,"_301":226,"_45":378,"_47":87,"_72":128,"_303":315,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":379,"_267":380},{"_41":307,"_13":179,"_69":178,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":308,"_301":226,"_45":375,"_47":94,"_72":60,"_303":310,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":376,"_267":377},{"_41":298,"_13":157,"_69":156,"_50":-5,"_43":44,"_299":300,"_301":226,"_45":371,"_47":80,"_72":128,"_303":304,"_74":24,"_305":-5,"_372":373,"_267":374},["D",1783480155248],"children",[],[157],["D",1753498183371],[],[179],["D",1783476410072],[],[127],["D",1784124994783],[],[71],["D",1753498170080],[],[188],["D",1783476356302],[],[170],["D",1783476418585],[],[332],["D",1783480256927],[],[340],["D",1783477323676],[],[347],["D",1753454022202],["D",1789527031073],{"_11":12,"_266":77},{"_11":12,"_261":262,"_76":77,"_25":75,"_263":264,"_265":24},{"_47":252,"_13":16,"_41":44,"_253":215,"_254":-5,"_255":-5,"_256":-5,"_257":-5,"_258":-5,"_259":14,"_260":12},"ctx",{"_58":-5,"_286":437,"_438":439,"_440":441,"_442":24,"_443":24,"_444":24,"_445":226,"_446":-5,"_447":-7,"_448":-7,"_449":168,"_450":24,"_451":24,"_452":-5,"_453":24,"_454":24,"_455":24,"_456":-5},"ENV",{"_408":409,"_410":411,"_412":16,"_413":414,"_415":416,"_417":418,"_419":420,"_421":422,"_423":424,"_425":426,"_427":428,"_429":430,"_431":432,"_433":434,"_435":436},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]

History