[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8,"_9":10},"actionData","errors","root",{"_181":182,"_183":184},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name",{"_106":105,"_32":50,"_115":94,"_27":116,"_13":14,"_117":-5,"_11":118,"_119":120,"_121":122,"_123":124,"_125":126,"_21":-5,"_127":-5,"_128":129,"_130":25,"_131":132,"_133":64,"_134":-5,"_135":-5,"_136":137},"routes/_app.x.$handle.$name.branch.$branch.version.$version.diff",{"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":-5,"_18":-5},"project",{"_48":49,"_32":50,"_37":51,"_52":-5,"_53":25,"_54":55,"_56":55,"_57":58,"_59":-5,"_18":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":64,"_66":-5,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":76,"_77":-5,"_78":79,"_80":79,"_81":82,"_83":82,"_84":82,"_85":79,"_86":79,"_87":88,"_89":90,"_91":92,"_93":25},"version",1,"changes",[19,20],"aiChatInfo","userId",{"_21":42,"_23":-7,"_24":25,"_26":25,"_27":43,"_29":43},{"_21":22,"_23":-7,"_24":25,"_26":25,"_27":28,"_29":28},"file",{"_30":31,"_32":28,"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":14,"_40":41,"_24":25},"previous","deleted",false,"deletedHere","path","logic.ts","latestPath","fileId","01984448-bcac-755f-853f-bd49713832db","name","fileType","script","content","// Timeline logic and server functions\n\n// Smart internal conversion function with proper capitalization and punctuation\nexport function convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBePattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const willBeMatch = question.match(willBePattern);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i;\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(willHappenPattern);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n const [, subject] = willHappenMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X Y?\" -> \"X will Y\" (general case)\n const generalWillPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|fix|repair|break|damage|build|destroy|create|delete).+)\\??$/i;\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(generalWillPattern);\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearPattern = /^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const yearMatch = question.match(yearPattern);\n if (yearMatch) {\n const [, subject] = yearMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null; // Return null if no pattern matches\n}\n\n// PERFECTED ALGORITHM - Helper functions\nfunction sum(arr: number[]): number {\n return arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n}\n\nfunction filterDefined(arr: (T | null | undefined)[]): T[] {\n return arr.filter((x): x is T => x != null);\n}\n\nfunction getAnswerProbability(contract: any, answerId: string): number {\n const answer = contract.answers.find((a: any) => a.id === answerId);\n return answer?.prob || 0;\n}\n\nfunction getInitialAnswerProbability(contract: any, answer: any): number {\n return answer.prob || 0;\n}\n\n// PERFECTED IMPLEMENTATION - Fixed logic for complex threshold markets like Nonogram\nexport function getExpectedDate(contract: any, initialOnly?: boolean): number {\n const { answers, isResolved } = contract;\n \n // Market type detection: Check if probabilities sum to ~1.0 (bucket-style) or are cumulative (threshold-style)\n const totalProb = answers.reduce((sum: number, a: any) => sum + (a.prob || 0), 0);\n const shouldAnswersSumToOne = Math.abs(totalProb - 1) < 0.1; // If sum ≈ 1.0, it's bucket-style\n \n // For threshold-style markets, filter out resolved NO answers (they have 0% probability)\n const activeAnswers = shouldAnswersSumToOne ? answers : answers.filter((a: any) => !a.resolution || a.resolution !== 'NO');\n \n const answerProbabilities = filterDefined(\n activeAnswers.map((a: any) =>\n initialOnly\n ? getInitialAnswerProbability(contract, a)\n : isResolved\n ? a.prob\n : getAnswerProbability(contract, a.id)\n )\n );\n \n const answerMidpoints = activeAnswers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n \n if (shouldAnswersSumToOne) {\n // Bucket-style: simple weighted average\n return sum(answerProbabilities.map((p, i) => p * answerMidpoints[i]));\n } else {\n // Threshold-style: calculate discrete probabilities\n const discreteProbs = [];\n \n // First period: probability of the first threshold\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[0]);\n \n // Middle periods: difference between adjacent thresholds\n for (let i = 1; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[i] - answerProbabilities[i - 1]);\n }\n \n // Final period: remaining probability\n const afterLastProb = 1 - answerProbabilities[answerProbabilities.length - 1];\n \n // Calculate expected value using discrete probabilities\n let expectedValue = 0;\n \n // Sum probability-weighted time periods\n for (let i = 0; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n expectedValue += answerMidpoints[i] * discreteProbs[i];\n }\n \n // Handle the \"after last threshold\" case\n if (afterLastProb > 0 && answerMidpoints.length > 0) {\n const lastMidpoint = answerMidpoints[answerMidpoints.length - 1];\n let timePeriod;\n \n // FIXED: Use ALL answers for time period calculation, not just active answers\n const allMidpoints = answers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n \n if (allMidpoints.length > 1) {\n // Use actual time period between last two thresholds from ALL answers\n const secondLastMidpoint = allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 2];\n timePeriod = allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 1] - secondLastMidpoint;\n } else {\n // For truly single threshold case, use a reasonable default\n timePeriod = 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 30 days default\n }\n \n const beyondLastMidpoint = lastMidpoint + timePeriod;\n expectedValue += beyondLastMidpoint * afterLastProb;\n }\n \n return expectedValue;\n }\n}\n\nexport interface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n}\n\nexport async function fetchTimelineEvents(): Promise {\n // Fetch more markets to get 25 total\n const response = await fetch('https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=150');\n const allMarkets = await response.json();\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('No DATE markets found');\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n // Take first 25 open markets\n const first25Open = openMarkets.slice(0, 25);\n \n // For each market, fetch answers and calculate weighted average using PERFECTED ALGORITHM\n const marketsWithPredictions = await Promise.all(\n first25Open.map(async (market) => {\n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n return null;\n }\n \n console.log(`\\nProcessing market: ${market.question}`);\n console.log(`Total answers: ${answers.length}`);\n \n // Use the perfected algorithm with the contract containing fresh answers\n const contractWithAnswers = { ...market, answers };\n const weightedAverage = getExpectedDate(contractWithAnswers);\n \n if (!weightedAverage || isNaN(weightedAverage)) {\n console.log('No valid weighted average calculated');\n return null;\n }\n \n console.log(`Calculated expected date: ${new Date(weightedAverage).toISOString().split('T')[0]}`);\n \n // Find top choice for confidence (from all answers)\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate: weightedAverage,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creatorName\n };\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n return null;\n }\n })\n );\n \n // Filter out null results\n const validMarkets = marketsWithPredictions.filter(Boolean);\n \n console.log(`\\nValid markets found: ${validMarkets.length}`);\n \n if (validMarkets.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('No valid markets with predictions found');\n }\n \n // Convert questions to statements - try internal conversion first\n const statements = [];\n const questionsNeedingAPI = [];\n const questionIndices = [];\n \n for (let i = 0; i < validMarkets.length; i++) {\n const question = validMarkets[i].question;\n const internalConversion = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n \n if (internalConversion) {\n statements[i] = internalConversion;\n console.log(`Internal conversion: \"${question}\" -> \"${internalConversion}\"`);\n } else {\n questionsNeedingAPI.push(question);\n questionIndices.push(i);\n }\n }\n \n // Helper function to clean up API responses\n const cleanApiResponse = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n \n // For questions that couldn't be converted internally, use the API\n if (questionsNeedingAPI.length > 0) {\n console.log(`Using API for ${questionsNeedingAPI.length} questions that couldn't be converted internally`);\n \n for (let i = 0; i < questionsNeedingAPI.length; i++) {\n const originalIndex = questionIndices[i];\n try {\n const singleResponse = await fetch('https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question: questionsNeedingAPI[i] })\n });\n \n if (singleResponse.ok) {\n const result = await singleResponse.json();\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n console.log(`API conversion: \"${questionsNeedingAPI[i]}\" -> \"${result.statement}\"`);\n } else {\n // Fallback: simple conversion\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n \n // Rate limiting delay\n if (i < questionsNeedingAPI.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 1200));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question ${i}:`, err);\n const fallback = questionsNeedingAPI[i].replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Combine the data\n const timelineEvents: TimelineEvent[] = validMarkets.map((market, index) => {\n const fallback = market.question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = fallback.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + fallback.slice(1).replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n statement: statements[index] || cleanedFallback,\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator\n };\n });\n \n return timelineEvents;\n}\n","createdAt",["D",1753492274354],"branchVersion","branchId","6cc7e036-69bd-11f0-9ad7-0224a6c84d84",{"_30":44,"_32":43,"_33":45,"_35":46,"_37":47,"_39":14,"_40":41,"_24":25},"index.ts","01984448-bcac-755f-853f-b9ae1c8a3e7d","http","/** @jsxImportSource https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0 */\nimport React, { useState, useEffect } from \"https://esm.sh/react@18.2.0\";\nimport { createRoot } from \"https://esm.sh/react-dom@18.2.0/client\";\nimport { fetchTimelineEvents, type TimelineEvent } from \"./logic.ts\";\n\nfunction App() {\n const [events, setEvents] = useState([]);\n const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);\n const [error, setError] = useState(null);\n const [activeYear, setActiveYear] = useState(null);\n\n useEffect(() => {\n loadTimelineEvents();\n }, []);\n\n const loadTimelineEvents = async () => {\n try {\n const response = await fetch('/api/timeline-events');\n const data = await response.json();\n setEvents(data);\n } catch (err) {\n setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'Failed to load timeline');\n } finally {\n setLoading(false);\n }\n };\n\n const formatDate = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {\n year: 'numeric',\n month: 'short',\n day: 'numeric'\n });\n };\n\n const formatYear = (timestamp: number) => {\n return new Date(timestamp).getFullYear();\n };\n\n const scrollToYear = (year: number) => {\n const element = document.getElementById(`year-${year}`);\n if (element) {\n element.scrollIntoView({ behavior: 'smooth', block: 'center' });\n setActiveYear(year);\n }\n };\n\n if (loading) {\n return (\n

Loading timeline...

\n );\n }\n\n if (error) {\n return

Error: {error}

;\n }\n\n if (events.length === 0) {\n return

No timeline events found

;\n }\n\n // Sort events by expected date\n const sortedEvents = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.expectedDate - b.expectedDate);\n \n // Get unique years for navigation\n const years = [...new Set(sortedEvents.map(event => formatYear(event.expectedDate)))].sort();\n\n return (\n

\n {/* Year Navigation */}\n

Years

\n {years.map(year => (\n scrollToYear(year)}\n >\n {year}\n \n ))}\n

\n\n

WHEN

\n A timeline of the future, based on{' '}\n \n Manifold Markets\n {' '}\n forecasts.\n

\n by{' '}\n \n Charlie\n \n

\n\n

\n {isFirstOfYear && (\n
\n {year}\n
\n )}\n \n
\n
\n {formatDate(event.expectedDate)}\n
\n
\n \n \n {event.statement}\n \n \n \n
\n
\n

\n );\n}\n\nfunction client() {\n createRoot(document.getElementById(\"root\")).render();\n}\nif (typeof document !== \"undefined\") { client(); }\n\nexport default async function server(request: Request): Promise {\n const url = new URL(request.url);\n \n if (url.pathname === '/api/timeline-events') {\n try {\n const timelineEvents = await fetchTimelineEvents();\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(timelineEvents), {\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n } catch (error) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ error: error.message }), {\n status: 500,\n headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }\n });\n }\n }\n\n return new Response(`\n \n \n WHEN - A Timeline of the Future\n \n \n \n \n

\n \n \n \n \n `, {\n headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html\" }\n });\n}\n\nconst css = `\n * {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 0;\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n body {\n font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Roboto', sans-serif;\n line-height: 1.6;\n background-color: #f8fafc;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n .app-container {\n display: flex;\n min-height: 100vh;\n }\n\n .year-nav {\n position: fixed;\n right: 20px;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n background: white;\n border-radius: 12px;\n padding: 16px 8px;\n box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);\n border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\n z-index: 100;\n }\n\n .year-nav-title {\n font-size: 0.8em;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #64748b;\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 12px;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 8px 12px;\n margin-bottom: 4px;\n background: none;\n border: none;\n border-radius: 6px;\n font-size: 0.9em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #64748b;\n cursor: pointer;\n transition: all 0.2s;\n text-align: center;\n min-width: 60px;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn:hover {\n background-color: #f1f5f9;\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .year-nav-btn.active {\n background-color: #6366f1;\n color: white;\n }\n\n .timeline-container {\n flex: 1;\n max-width: 900px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n padding: 40px 20px;\n padding-right: 120px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header {\n text-align: center;\n margin-bottom: 50px;\n padding-bottom: 30px;\n border-bottom: 2px solid #e2e8f0;\n }\n\n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 4em;\n font-weight: 900;\n color: #1e293b;\n margin-bottom: 15px;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .timeline-header p {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n color: #64748b;\n margin-bottom: 10px;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a {\n color: #6366f1;\n text-decoration: none;\n font-weight: 500;\n }\n\n .timeline-header a:hover {\n text-decoration: underline;\n }\n\n .byline {\n font-size: 1em;\n color: #94a3b8;\n }\n\n .byline a {\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n .timeline-wrapper {\n padding: 50px 20px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n max-width: 1000px;\n color: #334155;\n }\n\n /* TIMELINE STYLING - FIXED FOR MOBILE */\n .timeline-track {\n position: relative;\n list-style: none;\n }\n\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n left: 0;\n width: 3px;\n height: 100%;\n background: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 120px;\n margin-bottom: 8vh;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n font-size: 1rem;\n font-weight: 600;\n line-height: 0.9;\n color: #64748b;\n }\n\n /* Horizontal line - closer to date for mobile */\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .time-wrapper::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n background: #6366f1;\n top: 50%;\n left: -120px;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 80px;\n height: 3px;\n }\n\n /* Removed dots completely for cleaner mobile experience */\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event time {\n display: inline-block;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .details {\n margin-top: 15px;\n }\n\n .event-link {\n display: inline;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: inherit;\n transition: all 0.2s ease;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover {\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .event-statement {\n font-size: 1.2em;\n font-weight: 500;\n color: #1e293b;\n line-height: 1.4;\n margin-right: 8px;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .event-statement {\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .external-link-icon {\n color: #94a3b8;\n vertical-align: baseline;\n margin-left: 4px;\n transition: color 0.2s ease;\n display: inline;\n }\n\n .event-link:hover .external-link-icon {\n color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .year-separator {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #6366f1;\n margin: 50px 0 30px 0;\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 40px;\n }\n\n .year-separator::before {\n content: \"\";\n position: absolute;\n left: 0;\n top: 50%;\n transform: translateY(-50%);\n width: 40px;\n height: 4px;\n background-color: #6366f1;\n }\n\n .loading-container {\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n min-height: 100vh;\n color: #475569;\n }\n\n .loading-spinner {\n width: 40px;\n height: 40px;\n border: 3px solid #e2e8f0;\n border-top: 3px solid #6366f1;\n border-radius: 50%;\n animation: spin 1s linear infinite;\n margin-bottom: 20px;\n }\n\n @keyframes spin {\n 0% { transform: rotate(0deg); }\n 100% { transform: rotate(360deg); }\n }\n\n .error {\n text-align: center;\n padding: 40px;\n font-size: 1.1em;\n color: #dc2626;\n background: #fef2f2;\n border: 1px solid #fecaca;\n border-radius: 10px;\n margin: 50px auto;\n max-width: 500px;\n }\n\n /* Mobile responsive - improved */\n @media (max-width: 700px) {\n .timeline-container {\n padding: 20px 15px;\n padding-right: 80px;\n }\n \n .timeline-header h1 {\n font-size: 3em;\n }\n\n .timeline-track .timeline-event .item-inner {\n padding: 20px 60px;\n }\n \n .timeline-track .timeline-event 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Diff · v1