PayAna Market Sentinel

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{ analyzeMarket } from \"../lib/market.ts\";\n\nconst originalFetch = globalThis.fetch;\nconst now = Date.now();\nconst validTicker = {\n symbol: \"BTCUSDT\", priceChangePercent: \"1.25\", lastPrice: \"100.00\", bidPrice: \"99.99\", askPrice: \"100.01\",\n highPrice: \"105.00\", lowPrice: \"95.00\", volume: \"1000\", quoteVolume: \"100000\", closeTime: now, count: 1234,\n};\nconst validDepth = {\n lastUpdateId: 42,\n bids: [[\"99.99\", \"2\"], [\"99.98\", \"1\"]],\n asks: [[\"100.01\", \"1\"], [\"100.02\", \"1\"]],\n};\nconst validKlines = Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => {\n const open = now - (8 - i) * 300_000;\n const close = 100 + i * 0.1;\n return [open, String(close - 0.05), String(close + 0.1), String(close - 0.1), String(close), \"10\", open + 299_999, String(1000 + i * 10), 100, \"5\", \"500\", \"0\"];\n});\n\nfunction response(body: unknown, status = 200) {\n return new Response(JSON.stringify(body), { status, headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" } });\n}\nfunction install(mode: \"ticker_fail\" | \"malformed_ticker\" | \"ticker_only\" | \"all_fail\" | \"malformed_depth\") {\n globalThis.fetch = (async (input: RequestInfo | URL) => {\n const url = String(input);\n if (mode === \"all_fail\") return response({ error: \"synthetic\" }, 503);\n if (url.includes(\"/ticker/24hr\")) {\n if (mode === \"ticker_fail\") return response({ error: \"synthetic\" }, 503);\n if (mode === \"malformed_ticker\") return response({ symbol: \"BTCUSDT\", lastPrice: \"0\" });\n return response(validTicker);\n }\n if (url.includes(\"/depth\")) {\n if (mode === \"ticker_only\") return response({ error: \"synthetic\" }, 503);\n if (mode === \"malformed_depth\") return response({ lastUpdateId: 42, bids: [], asks: [] });\n return response(validDepth);\n }\n if (url.includes(\"/klines\")) {\n if (mode === \"ticker_only\") return response({ error: \"synthetic\" }, 503);\n return response(validKlines);\n }\n return response({ error: \"unexpected\" }, 404);\n }) as typeof fetch;\n}\n\nconst checks: { name: string; pass: boolean; details?: unknown }[] = [];\nfunction check(name: string, pass: boolean, details?: unknown) {\n checks.push({ name, pass, details });\n if (!pass) throw new Error(`FAILURE_MODE_SELFTEST:${name}`);\n}\n\ntry {\n install(\"ticker_fail\");\n const a: any = await analyzeMarket(\"BTCUSDT\");\n check(\"ticker_fail_partial\", a.evidenceState === \"PARTIAL\", a.evidenceState);\n check(\"ticker_fail_null_price\", a.market?.lastPrice === null, a.market?.lastPrice);\n check(\"ticker_fail_source_false\", a.sourceAvailability?.ticker === false);\n check(\"ticker_fail_no_zero_imputation\", a.market?.change24hPct === null && a.market?.high24h === null && a.market?.low24h === null);\n check(\"ticker_fail_risk_flag\", a.assessment?.riskFlags?.includes(\"MISSING_TICKER_SOURCE\"));\n check(\"ticker_fail_direction_from_survivors\", Number.isFinite(Number(a.assessment?.directionalScore)) && a.assessment?.signalCount >= 2, a.assessment);\n\n install(\"malformed_ticker\");\n const b: any = await analyzeMarket(\"BTCUSDT\");\n const tickerReceipt = b.receipts?.find((r: any) => r.name === \"spot_24h_ticker\");\n check(\"malformed_ticker_partial\", b.evidenceState === \"PARTIAL\", b.evidenceState);\n check(\"malformed_ticker_rejected\", tickerReceipt?.status === \"FAIL\" && tickerReceipt?.error === \"INVALID_TICKER_SHAPE\", tickerReceipt);\n check(\"malformed_ticker_not_price_zero\", b.market?.lastPrice === null, b.market?.lastPrice);\n\n install(\"ticker_only\");\n const c: any = await analyzeMarket(\"BTCUSDT\");\n check(\"ticker_only_partial\", c.evidenceState === \"PARTIAL\", c.evidenceState);\n check(\"ticker_only_insufficient_direction\", c.assessment?.bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\", c.assessment?.bias);\n check(\"ticker_only_score_null\", c.assessment?.directionalScore === null, c.assessment?.directionalScore);\n check(\"ticker_only_micro_null\", c.microstructure?.orderBookImbalance === null && c.microstructure?.bidNotionalTop20 === null);\n check(\"ticker_only_candles_zero\", c.shortHorizon?.candles === 0 && c.shortHorizon?.momentum30mPct === null);\n check(\"ticker_only_no_trade\", c.assessment?.recommendation === \"NO_TRADE_DECISION\");\n check(\"ticker_only_recovery_next_test\", String(c.assessment?.nextTest).includes(\"Recover\"));\n\n install(\"malformed_depth\");\n const d: any = await analyzeMarket(\"BTCUSDT\");\n const depthReceipt = d.receipts?.find((r: any) => r.name === \"spot_order_book\");\n check(\"malformed_depth_partial\", d.evidenceState === \"PARTIAL\", d.evidenceState);\n check(\"malformed_depth_rejected\", depthReceipt?.status === \"FAIL\" && depthReceipt?.error === \"INVALID_DEPTH_SHAPE\", depthReceipt);\n check(\"malformed_depth_null_imbalance\", d.microstructure?.orderBookImbalance === null, d.microstructure?.orderBookImbalance);\n\n install(\"all_fail\");\n const e: any = await analyzeMarket(\"BTCUSDT\");\n check(\"all_fail_state\", e.evidenceState === \"FAIL\", e.evidenceState);\n check(\"all_fail_insufficient\", e.assessment?.bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\", e.assessment?.bias);\n check(\"all_fail_no_trade\", e.assessment?.recommendation === \"NO_TRADE_DECISION\");\n check(\"all_fail_all_receipts_fail\", e.receipts?.length === 3 && e.receipts.every((r: any) => r.status === \"FAIL\"));\n} finally {\n globalThis.fetch = originalFetch;\n}\n\nconst pass = checks.every(c => c.pass);\nconsole.log(JSON.stringify({ pass, version: \"failure-modes-1.0.0\", tests: checks.length, checks }));\nexport default { pass, tests: checks.length };\n","createdAt",["D",1788814216913],"branchVersion","branchId","7cb33925-37d8-48ee-9d8b-5712686d33fd","id","71ad8a44-f36c-41e9-a978-0707deb4f71b","payana-binance-agent-os",["D",1788812694161],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","PayAna Falsifier Agent — evidence-first Binance market 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{ parseVal, serveImmutableFile } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/utils/index.ts\";\nimport { Hono } from \"npm:hono\";\nimport { Root } from \"./frontend/root.tsx\";\nimport { analyzeMarket, normalizeSymbol, supportedSymbols } from \"./lib/market.ts\";\n\nconst app = new Hono();\nconst buckets = new Map();\nconst RATE_WINDOW_MS = 60_000;\nconst RATE_MAX = 30;\n\nfunction clientKey(c: any) {\n return String(c.req.header(\"cf-connecting-ip\") || c.req.header(\"x-forwarded-for\") || \"unknown\").split(\",\")[0].trim().slice(0, 80);\n}\nfunction rateAllowed(key: string) {\n const now = Date.now();\n const bucket = buckets.get(key);\n if (!bucket || now - bucket.startedAt >= RATE_WINDOW_MS) {\n buckets.set(key, { startedAt: now, count: 1 });\n return true;\n }\n if (bucket.count >= RATE_MAX) return false;\n bucket.count += 1;\n if (buckets.size > 1000) {\n for (const [k, v] of buckets) if (now - v.startedAt >= RATE_WINDOW_MS) buckets.delete(k);\n }\n return true;\n}\n\napp.use(\"*\", async (c, next) => {\n c.header(\"X-Content-Type-Options\", \"nosniff\");\n c.header(\"Referrer-Policy\", \"no-referrer\");\n c.header(\"X-Frame-Options\", \"DENY\");\n c.header(\"Permissions-Policy\", \"camera=(), microphone=(), geolocation=(), payment=()\");\n c.header(\"Content-Security-Policy\", \"default-src 'self'; script-src 'self' https://esm.town https://esm.sh; style-src 'self'; connect-src 'self' https://esm.sh; img-src 'self' data:; font-src 'self'; object-src 'none'; base-uri 'none'; frame-ancestors 'none'\");\n await next();\n});\n\n\napp.use(\"/api/*\", async (c, next) => {\n c.header(\"Cache-Control\", \"no-store\");\n c.header(\"X-Content-Type-Options\", \"nosniff\");\n c.header(\"Referrer-Policy\", \"no-referrer\");\n if (!rateAllowed(clientKey(c))) return c.json({ status: \"BLOCKED\", error: \"RATE_LIMITED\", retryAfterSeconds: 60 }, 429);\n await next();\n});\n\napp.get(\"/\", (c) => c.html(Root()));\napp.get(\"/__immutable/*\", (c) => serveImmutableFile(c.req.path));\napp.get(\"/source\", (c) => c.redirect(parseVal().links.self.val));\n\napp.get(\"/api/health\", (c) => c.json({\n status: \"PASS\",\n service: \"PayAna Market Sentinel\",\n version: \"1.0.0\",\n mode: \"READ_ONLY_MARKET_EVIDENCE\",\n boundary: \"MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH\",\n supportedSymbols: supportedSymbols(),\n agentOsMcp: {\n endpointKnown: true,\n runtimeProbeState: \"OAUTH_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED\",\n liveAuthorizedSession: false,\n },\n marketData: {\n provider: \"Binance public market-data surface\",\n runtimeChampion: \"data-api.binance.vision\",\n directApiBinanceComFromValTown: \"HTTP_451_RESTRICTED_LOCATION\",\n },\n generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n}));\n\napp.get(\"/api/symbols\", (c) => c.json({ status: \"PASS\", symbols: supportedSymbols() }));\n\napp.get(\"/api/analyze\", async (c) => {\n try {\n const symbol = normalizeSymbol(c.req.query(\"symbol\") ?? \"BTCUSDT\");\n const result = await analyzeMarket(symbol);\n const httpStatus = result.evidenceState === \"FAIL\" ? 503 : 200;\n return c.json(result, httpStatus);\n } catch (error) {\n const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);\n const status = message === \"INVALID_SYMBOL_FORMAT\" || message === \"SYMBOL_NOT_ALLOWLISTED\" ? 400 : 500;\n return c.json({ status: \"FAIL\", error: message.slice(0, 180), boundary: \"NO_UNVALIDATED_SYMBOL_FORWARDING\" }, status);\n }\n});\n\napp.notFound((c) => c.json({ status: \"FAIL\", error: \"NOT_FOUND\" }, 404));\napp.onError((err) => {\n console.error(\"UNHANDLED\", err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err));\n return new Response(JSON.stringify({ status: \"FAIL\", error: \"INTERNAL_ERROR\" }), { status: 500, headers: { \"content-type\": \"application/json\" } });\n});\n\nexport default app.fetch;\n","label",[150],"0a479271-a8c6-4388-a93e-b78118c728c1","SKILL.md","7f52caf0-aafc-11f1-908d-1607ee4eb77e",25,["D",1788813686965],"# PayAna Falsifier Agent Skill\n\n## Purpose\n\nPayAna is an evidence-first market-analysis agent for Binance Agent OS. Its job is **not** to predict a guaranteed direction and **not** to place trades. It observes market evidence, constructs competing hypotheses, searches for disconfirming evidence, records what is missing, and returns a decision-quality briefing.\n\nThe skill is designed for an MCP-capable AI client connected to the official Binance Agent OS MCP endpoint:\n\n`https://agent.binance.com/mcp/agentic`\n\nUse the minimum permission set required. For this skill, **Market Data only** is sufficient. Account, Trade, Transfer and withdrawal-like capabilities are outside the skill's required scope.\n\n## Hard safety boundary\n\n- `MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH`\n- Never request or enable Trade, Account or Transfer merely to complete this workflow.\n- Never place, simulate-as-real, confirm or recommend an order.\n- Never claim an MCP call occurred unless the tool receipt proves it.\n- Never treat model confidence as a calibrated probability.\n- Never treat a screenshot, HTTP 200, API field named `open`, or plausible prose as economic proof.\n- If one required source fails, mark the run `PARTIAL`; if all required sources fail, mark it `FAIL`.\n\n## Supported market evidence\n\nFor the requested Binance spot symbol, retrieve when available:\n\n1. 24h ticker: last price, 24h change, high, low, quote volume, trade count.\n2. Order book: at least top 20 bid and ask levels.\n3. 5m candlesticks: at least 36 candles when available.\n4. Funding/mark price only when exposed by the connected Agent OS market-data tool. Absence must be recorded, not imputed.\n\n## Loop\n\nRun this reasoning loop once per user request or monitoring cycle:\n\n1. **OBSERVE** — collect fresh market evidence and timestamps.\n2. **VALIDATE** — verify symbol, source success, timestamps, numeric bounds and non-empty data.\n3. **MODEL** — calculate descriptive metrics.\n4. **NEURON** — create at least three branches:\n - winning hypothesis supported by current evidence;\n - opposite hypothesis;\n - alternative/non-directional explanation such as noise, liquidity effects or stale/missing context.\n5. **FALSIFY** — define observable conditions that would invalidate each hypothesis.\n6. **NEGATIVE SPACE** — explicitly list context not available to the run.\n7. **RECONCILE** — choose the best current descriptive label, not a trade direction.\n8. **RECEIPT** — return source/tool receipts and timestamp.\n9. **NEXT TEST** — state what evidence should be checked next if the user wants to continue.\n\n## Deterministic metrics\n\nUse formulas equivalent to the reference implementation when raw inputs exist:\n\n- `spread_bps = (ask - bid) / mid * 10000`\n- `bid_notional = Σ(price_i * qty_i)` over top-20 bids\n- `ask_notional = Σ(price_i * qty_i)` over top-20 asks\n- `book_imbalance = (bid_notional - ask_notional) / (bid_notional + ask_notional)`\n- `log_return_t = ln(close_t / close_(t-1))`\n- `realized_vol_5m_bps = sample_std(log_returns) * 10000`\n- `momentum_30m_pct = (latest_close / close_30m_ago - 1) * 100`\n- `momentum_3h_pct = (latest_close / first_close_in_3h_window - 1) * 100`\n- `volume_z = (latest_quote_volume - mean(prior_quote_volumes)) / sample_std(prior_quote_volumes)`\n\nReference descriptive score:\n\n`directional_score = mean(tanh(2*book_imbalance), tanh(momentum_30m_pct/0.6), tanh(momentum_3h_pct/1.5))`\n\nThis score is a heuristic descriptor, not a probability and not a price forecast.\n\n## Output contract\n\nReturn a compact object or briefing with these fields:\n\n- `symbol`\n- `evidence_state`: `PASS | PARTIAL | FAIL`\n- `fetched_at`\n- `observations`\n- `descriptive_pressure`: `BULLISH_PRESSURE | BEARISH_PRESSURE | MIXED_NEUTRAL`\n- `supporting_evidence[]`\n- `opposing_evidence[]`\n- `alternative_explanations[]`\n- `falsifiers[]`\n- `risk_flags[]`\n- `missing_context[]`\n- `source_receipts[]`\n- `recommendation`: always `NO_TRADE_DECISION` for this skill\n- `next_test`\n\n## Example request\n\n\"Use Binance Agent OS market data to audit BTCUSDT. Tell me what the current evidence supports, what argues against it, what would falsify the reading, and what is missing. Do not trade.\"\n\n## Example acceptance criteria\n\nA run passes only if:\n\n- the symbol is explicit and validated;\n- at least one live source has a timestamp/currentness signal;\n- no missing source is silently replaced by fabricated data;\n- the opposite hypothesis and at least one alternative explanation are present;\n- falsifiers are observable rather than rhetorical;\n- source receipts are listed;\n- final recommendation remains `NO_TRADE_DECISION`.\n",[162],"e2a19385-fead-447b-94c3-7fcedbc452e7","README.md","01a07d8d-933a-7578-bf59-383aad23cbb7",38,["D",1788813839224],1,"# PayAna — Falsifier Agent for Binance Agent OS\n\n**Track A — Binance Agent OS Mini Hackathon**\n\nPayAna is an evidence-first market-analysis agent whose defining behavior is simple:\n\n> It does not stop after asking **“what does the market evidence support?”**. It also asks **“what would prove this reading wrong?”**\n\nThe project combines a reusable `SKILL.md` for an MCP-capable AI client with a deployed reference cockpit that computes transparent market metrics, records source receipts, exposes missing context and refuses to convert a descriptive market reading into a trade instruction.\n\n**Hard boundary:** `MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH`\n\n## Why this exists\n\nMany market-agent demos optimize for a polished answer or an executed action. That creates a failure mode: a coherent answer can still be based on stale data, one-sided evidence, missing context or a non-calibrated model score.\n\nPayAna instead forces a small scientific loop:\n\n```text\nOBSERVE → VALIDATE → MODEL → COMPETING HYPOTHESES\n → FALSIFY → NEGATIVE SPACE → RECONCILE → RECEIPT → NEXT TEST\n```\n\nThe result is **decision-quality evidence**, not a trade recommendation.\n\n## What the agent does\n\nFor a requested Binance market, PayAna:\n\n1. retrieves fresh market evidence;\n2. validates source state and timestamps;\n3. computes reproducible metrics;\n4. constructs a winning hypothesis, an opposite hypothesis and an alternative explanation;\n5. defines observable falsifiers;\n6. lists context that is missing instead of fabricating it;\n7. returns source receipts;\n8. ends with `NO_TRADE_DECISION`.\n\nSee [`SKILL.md`](./SKILL.md) for the agent contract.\n\n## Binance Agent OS integration\n\nOfficial MCP endpoint:\n\n```text\nhttps://agent.binance.com/mcp/agentic\n```\n\nThe skill requires only the **Market Data** capability. It does not require Account, Trade or Transfer.\n\nA runtime probe against the official endpoint correctly returned an OAuth challenge rather than pretending to be connected. The discovered authorization metadata advertises:\n\n- Authorization Code flow;\n- PKCE `S256`;\n- token endpoint authentication method `none`;\n- OAuth Client ID Metadata Document support.\n\nTherefore this repository makes an explicit distinction:\n\n```text\nMCP_ENDPOINT_KNOWN != MCP_SESSION_AUTHORIZED\n```\n\nA real MCP-connected demo is complete only after the participant connects through a legitimate supported MCP client and completes Binance's authorization UI with the minimum required permission.\n\nThe hosted reference cockpit currently uses Binance's public market-data surface for its reproducible web demo. This is not mislabeled as an authenticated MCP session.\n\n## Live reference cockpit\n\nThe deployed web application provides a zero-trade demonstration of the deterministic evidence layer:\n\n- BTCUSDT\n- ETHUSDT\n- BNBUSDT\n- SOLUSDT\n- XRPUSDT\n\nFor each symbol it combines:\n\n- 24h ticker;\n- top-20 order book;\n- 36 × 5-minute candles;\n- spread;\n- top-20 bid/ask notional;\n- order-book imbalance;\n- 30m and 3h momentum;\n- 5m realized volatility;\n- volume z-score;\n- descriptive directional pressure;\n- heuristic evidence-stability score;\n- source receipts;\n- risk flags;\n- falsifiers;\n- missing context.\n\nThe stability score is explicitly **not a calibrated probability**.\n\n## Reproducible formulas\n\n```text\nspread_bps = (ask - bid) / mid * 10000\n\nbid_notional = Σ(price_i × qty_i), top 20 bids\nask_notional = Σ(price_i × qty_i), top 20 asks\n\nbook_imbalance =\n (bid_notional - ask_notional) /\n (bid_notional + ask_notional)\n\nlog_return_t = ln(close_t / close_(t-1))\n\nrealized_vol_5m_bps =\n sample_std(log_returns) × 10000\n\nmomentum_30m_pct =\n (latest_close / close_30m_ago - 1) × 100\n\nvolume_z =\n (latest_quote_volume - mean(prior_quote_volumes)) /\n sample_std(prior_quote_volumes)\n```\n\nThe API exposes its method description directly in every successful response.\n\n## HTTP API\n\n```text\nGET /api/health\nGET /api/symbols\nGET /api/analyze?symbol=BTCUSDT\n```\n\nThere is deliberately no trading endpoint.\n\nExample safety fields:\n\n```json\n{\n \"readOnly\": true,\n \"boundary\": \"MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH\",\n \"assessment\": {\n \"recommendation\": \"NO_TRADE_DECISION\"\n }\n}\n```\n\n## Runtime discovery\n\nThe application does not assume that a documented endpoint is usable from every execution environment.\n\nDuring the 2026-09-07 Val Town runtime census:\n\n```text\napi.binance.com → HTTP 451 from this runtime\nfapi.binance.com → HTTP 451 from this runtime\ndata-api.binance.vision → HTTP 200 for public spot market data\nAgent OS MCP initialize → HTTP 401 OAuth challenge, as expected without authorization\n```\n\n`data-api.binance.vision` is therefore the current runtime champion for the hosted public-data reference layer.\n\nSee [`docs/ARCHITECTURE.md`](./docs/ARCHITECTURE.md) for the evidence and boundaries.\n\n## Validation\n\nCurrent automated suite:\n\n```text\n61 / 61 core checks PASS\n```\n\nCoverage includes all five allowlisted symbols and validates:\n\n- current ticker timestamp;\n- positive market price;\n- non-negative spread;\n- order-book imbalance bounds;\n- stability-score bounds;\n- explicit non-probability language;\n- three source receipts;\n- candle-series presence;\n- `NO_TRADE_DECISION` invariant;\n- invalid symbols;\n- injection-like symbol strings;\n- nonexistent routes;\n- rejection of write-like POST access.\n\nRate-limit mutation control:\n\n```text\nrequests 1–30 → HTTP 200\nrequests 31–35 → HTTP 429\nPASS\n```\n\nRun in Val Town:\n\n```text\ntests/selftest.ts\ntests/rate_limit_selftest.ts\n```\n\nThe browser layer is validated separately from server tests. After CSP hardening, a JavaScript-rendering fetch successfully matched React-only selectors including source receipts. Full interactive/screenshot automation is tracked separately because the external browser providers currently have insufficient credit; it is not mislabeled as completed.\n\n## Web hardening\n\n- strict symbol allowlist;\n- no arbitrary upstream URL forwarding;\n- `Cache-Control: no-store` on API results;\n- CSP;\n- `X-Content-Type-Options: nosniff`;\n- `X-Frame-Options: DENY`;\n- restrictive `Permissions-Policy`;\n- no Binance account key stored in the app;\n- no Account / Trade / Transfer function;\n- best-effort per-runtime rate limiting.\n\nThe rate limiter is intentionally documented as best-effort because serverless instances do not provide a shared global bucket.\n\n## Repository structure\n\n```text\n.\n├── SKILL.md # reusable Falsifier Agent contract\n├── index.ts # Hono API + web security boundaries\n├── lib/\n│ └── market.ts # evidence acquisition + formulas\n├── frontend/\n│ ├── root.tsx\n│ ├── index.tsx\n│ ├── styles.css\n│ └── components/App.tsx\n├── tests/\n│ ├── selftest.ts\n│ └── rate_limit_selftest.ts\n├── audits/\n│ ├── binance_mcp_probe.ts\n│ ├── oauth_metadata_probe.ts\n│ ├── market_api_probe.ts\n│ └── vision_klines_probe.ts\n└── docs/\n ├── ARCHITECTURE.md\n └── SUBMISSION_CHECKLIST.md\n```\n\n## Negative controls that matter\n\n```text\nHTTP_200 != VALID_MARKET_EVIDENCE\nSCREENSHOT != BEHAVIOR_PROOF\nMARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH\nMCP_ENDPOINT_KNOWN != MCP_SESSION_AUTHORIZED\nMODEL_SCORE != CALIBRATED_PROBABILITY\nCURRENT_PRESSURE != FUTURE_PRICE\nFETCH_FAIL != ZERO\n```\n\n## Hackathon submission state\n\nThe official Binance announcement states a Track A deadline of **2026-09-08 23:59 UTC** and requires following/reposting Binance, replying or quote-reposting with the Track A submission (video/demo plus GitHub when applicable), and completing the survey.\n\nExternal account actions are intentionally tracked as unverified until they actually happen. See [`docs/SUBMISSION_CHECKLIST.md`](./docs/SUBMISSION_CHECKLIST.md).\n\n## Design principle\n\nPayAna's thesis is not “AI can predict the market.”\n\nIt is:\n\n> **An agent becomes more trustworthy when it is required to expose the evidence against its own conclusion, the conditions that would falsify it, and the context it does not have.**\n",[169],"f94621ad-4ff2-45c9-94b2-8d9565f082bb","CHANGELOG.md","01a07d8d-933a-7578-bf59-362732c839bf",39,["D",1788813858470],"# Changelog\n\n## 2026-09-07 — PayAna Market Sentinel 1.0 candidate\n\n### Agent / methodology\n\n- Added `SKILL.md`: evidence-first Binance Agent OS market-data workflow.\n- Added winning/opposite/alternative hypothesis branches and observable falsifiers.\n- Added explicit negative-space / missing-context reporting.\n- Added hard `NO_TRADE_DECISION` and `MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH` boundaries.\n- Replaced misleading \"model confidence\" language with a heuristic `stabilityScore` that explicitly states it is not a calibrated probability.\n\n### Binance runtime discovery\n\n- Probed the official Agent OS MCP endpoint.\n- Confirmed unauthenticated `initialize` produces an OAuth 401 challenge rather than a usable session.\n- Retrieved OAuth Protected Resource Metadata and Authorization Server Metadata.\n- Confirmed Authorization Code, PKCE S256, public-client token auth (`none`), and Client ID Metadata Document support.\n- Confirmed Val Town runtime receives HTTP 451 from `api.binance.com`/`fapi.binance.com`.\n- Confirmed `data-api.binance.vision` works for public spot ticker, depth and klines and promoted it as the hosted-demo runtime champion.\n\n### Evidence engine\n\n- Added five-symbol allowlist: BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, BNBUSDT, SOLUSDT, XRPUSDT.\n- Added 24h ticker, top-20 order-book and 36 × 5m candle acquisition.\n- Added source receipts with HTTP state and duration.\n- Added PASS/PARTIAL/FAIL evidence-state classification.\n- Added spread, notional depth, order-book imbalance, realized volatility, momentum and volume-z calculations.\n- Added descriptive directional pressure and explicit falsifiers.\n- Added method/formula metadata directly to API responses.\n\n### API and security\n\n- Added `/api/health`, `/api/symbols`, `/api/analyze`.\n- Added strict symbol validation and allowlisting.\n- Added `Cache-Control: no-store` for API responses.\n- Added CSP, `nosniff`, frame denial, `Referrer-Policy` and restrictive `Permissions-Policy`.\n- Removed React inline-style dependencies so the strict `style-src 'self'` CSP remains viable.\n- Added best-effort per-runtime request limiting.\n- No trade, account, transfer, wallet or arbitrary upstream forwarding endpoint exists.\n\n### Frontend\n\n- Replaced the template UI with the PayAna dark evidence cockpit.\n- Added market metrics, short-horizon sparkline, source receipts, stability indicator, risk flags, falsifiers and blind spots.\n- Added automatic 30-second evidence refresh while the page is visible.\n- Added responsive desktop/mobile layout.\n\n### Validation\n\n- Core self-test: 61/61 PASS after final CSP-related frontend changes.\n- Rate-limit mutation: requests 1–30 return 200; 31–35 return 429 — PASS.\n- Invalid/injection-like symbols are rejected.\n- Write-like POST access to analysis route is rejected.\n- Immutable frontend entry and App assets return 200 and compile to JavaScript.\n- Root HTTP response contains final CSP and security headers.\n- JavaScript-rendering content extraction matched React-only `.app-shell` and `.source-item` selectors after CSP hardening.\n- Interactive screenshot/browser automation was attempted but external TinyFish and Firecrawl accounts reported insufficient credit; this remains explicitly unverified instead of being promoted to PASS.\n\n### Documentation\n\n- Rebuilt README for the hackathon candidate.\n- Added `docs/ARCHITECTURE.md`.\n- Added `docs/SUBMISSION_CHECKLIST.md`.\n- Organized probes under `audits/` and executable checks under `tests/`.\n",[177],"a8ea3128-330a-471f-ab09-480a5028fb46","tests","a36d534c-aafc-11f1-ab7a-1607ee4eb77e",29,["D",1788813747527],"directory",[184],"f459fcb7-57bb-4088-92ca-af0046dab0b0","lib","9c20aafa-aafa-11f1-97fe-1607ee4eb77e",4,["D",1788812876304],[191],"2b00d613-167b-4f0c-9ada-11c9a2f98e94","frontend","01a07d8d-933a-7578-bf59-33bbe6996921",["D",1788812825403],[197],"a5c34d36-47d6-46f4-90d4-05ee4ad40b63","docs","71efc4d0-aafc-11f1-b316-1607ee4eb77e",24,["D",1788813664504],[202],"5a417b55-b24d-4f0a-910a-e1508a016bf8","audits","a09c30e8-aafc-11f1-ab47-1607ee4eb77e",28,["D",1788813742805],[208],"pulls","branches",7,"forks",5,"envVars",{"_222":62,"_224":62},"connections",{"_222":62,"_223":62},"count","unfilledCount","emptyCount",{"_42":207,"_31":208,"_29":209,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":210,"_154":58,"_37":396,"_13":62,"_33":188,"_35":-5,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":397,"_26":398},{"_42":388,"_31":389,"_29":390,"_152":209,"_40":41,"_39":391,"_154":58,"_37":392,"_13":173,"_33":34,"_35":393,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":394,"_26":395},{"_42":380,"_31":381,"_29":382,"_152":209,"_40":41,"_39":383,"_154":58,"_37":384,"_13":173,"_33":34,"_35":385,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":386,"_26":387},{"_42":372,"_31":373,"_29":374,"_152":209,"_40":41,"_39":375,"_154":58,"_37":376,"_13":173,"_33":34,"_35":377,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":378,"_26":379},{"_42":364,"_31":365,"_29":366,"_152":209,"_40":41,"_39":367,"_154":58,"_37":368,"_13":173,"_33":34,"_35":369,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":370,"_26":371},{"_42":201,"_31":202,"_29":203,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":204,"_154":58,"_37":361,"_13":62,"_33":188,"_35":-5,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":362,"_26":363},{"_42":353,"_31":354,"_29":355,"_152":203,"_40":41,"_39":356,"_154":24,"_37":357,"_13":62,"_33":20,"_35":358,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":359,"_26":360},{"_42":345,"_31":346,"_29":347,"_152":203,"_40":41,"_39":348,"_154":58,"_37":349,"_13":62,"_33":20,"_35":350,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":351,"_26":352},{"_42":196,"_31":197,"_29":198,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":173,"_154":58,"_37":342,"_13":62,"_33":188,"_35":-5,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":343,"_26":344},{"_42":338,"_31":337,"_29":330,"_152":198,"_40":41,"_39":173,"_154":58,"_37":339,"_13":62,"_33":188,"_35":-5,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":340,"_26":341},{"_42":327,"_31":328,"_29":329,"_152":330,"_40":41,"_39":331,"_154":58,"_37":332,"_13":333,"_33":34,"_35":334,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":335,"_26":336},{"_42":320,"_31":321,"_29":322,"_152":198,"_40":41,"_39":173,"_154":58,"_37":323,"_13":62,"_33":20,"_35":324,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":325,"_26":326},{"_42":313,"_31":314,"_29":315,"_152":198,"_40":41,"_39":173,"_154":58,"_37":316,"_13":62,"_33":34,"_35":317,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":318,"_26":319},{"_42":305,"_31":306,"_29":307,"_152":198,"_40":41,"_39":308,"_154":58,"_37":309,"_13":173,"_33":34,"_35":310,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":311,"_26":312},{"_42":297,"_31":298,"_29":299,"_152":198,"_40":41,"_39":300,"_154":58,"_37":301,"_13":156,"_33":20,"_35":302,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":303,"_26":304},{"_42":190,"_31":191,"_29":192,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":193,"_154":58,"_37":294,"_13":62,"_33":188,"_35":-5,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":295,"_26":296},{"_42":286,"_31":287,"_29":288,"_152":192,"_40":41,"_39":289,"_154":58,"_37":290,"_13":215,"_33":34,"_35":291,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":292,"_26":293},{"_42":183,"_31":184,"_29":185,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":186,"_154":58,"_37":283,"_13":62,"_33":188,"_35":-5,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":284,"_26":285},{"_42":279,"_31":32,"_29":30,"_152":185,"_40":41,"_39":14,"_154":58,"_37":280,"_13":62,"_33":34,"_35":36,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":281,"_26":282},{"_42":271,"_31":272,"_29":273,"_152":185,"_40":41,"_39":274,"_154":24,"_37":275,"_13":156,"_33":34,"_35":276,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":277,"_26":278},{"_42":263,"_31":264,"_29":265,"_152":185,"_40":41,"_39":266,"_154":58,"_37":267,"_13":193,"_33":34,"_35":268,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":269,"_26":270},{"_42":176,"_31":177,"_29":178,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":179,"_154":24,"_37":260,"_13":173,"_33":20,"_35":181,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":261,"_26":262},{"_42":168,"_31":169,"_29":170,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":171,"_154":24,"_37":257,"_13":173,"_33":20,"_35":174,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":258,"_26":259},{"_42":161,"_31":162,"_29":163,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":164,"_154":58,"_37":254,"_13":62,"_33":20,"_35":166,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":255,"_26":256},{"_42":149,"_31":150,"_29":151,"_152":-5,"_40":41,"_39":153,"_154":24,"_37":250,"_13":156,"_33":157,"_35":158,"_23":24,"_159":-5,"_251":252,"_26":253},["D",1788813207897],"children",[],[150],["D",1788813686965],[],[162],["D",1788813839224],[],[169],["D",1788813858470],[],[177],"d4e2a6be-9c0f-4e86-b86e-dedb13cec2da","selftest.ts","2476d014-aafb-11f1-a319-1607ee4eb77e",42,["D",1788814013319],"import handler from \"../index.ts\";\nimport { analyzeMarket, normalizeSymbol, supportedSymbols } from \"../lib/market.ts\";\n\nconst results: any[] = [];\nfunction check(name: string, pass: boolean, details?: unknown) {\n results.push({ name, pass, details });\n if (!pass) throw new Error(`SELFTEST_FAIL:${name}`);\n}\n\nfor (const bad of [\"INVALIDXYZ\", \"BTCUSDT&foo=bar\", \"../BTCUSDT\", \"\"]) {\n let rejected = false;\n try { normalizeSymbol(bad); } catch { rejected = true; }\n if (bad === \"\") {\n // empty input normalizes to default only when nullish is not used; explicit empty must not leave allowlist.\n check(\"explicit_empty_rejected\", rejected);\n } else check(`invalid_symbol_rejected:${bad}`, rejected);\n}\n\nfor (const symbol of supportedSymbols()) {\n const r: any = await analyzeMarket(symbol);\n check(`${symbol}:evidence`, [\"PASS\", \"PARTIAL\"].includes(r.evidenceState), r.evidenceState);\n check(`${symbol}:read_only`, r.readOnly === true && r.boundary === \"MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH\");\n check(`${symbol}:price_positive`, Number(r.market?.lastPrice) > 0, r.market?.lastPrice);\n check(`${symbol}:spread_nonnegative`, Number(r.microstructure?.spreadBps) >= 0, r.microstructure?.spreadBps);\n check(`${symbol}:imbalance_bounded`, Math.abs(Number(r.microstructure?.orderBookImbalance)) <= 1.000001, r.microstructure?.orderBookImbalance);\n check(`${symbol}:stability_bounded`, Number(r.assessment?.stabilityScore) >= 0 && Number(r.assessment?.stabilityScore) <= 1, r.assessment?.stabilityScore);\n check(`${symbol}:stability_not_probability`, String(r.assessment?.stabilityMeaning ?? \"\").includes(\"not a calibrated probability\"));\n check(`${symbol}:winning_hypothesis`, String(r.assessment?.hypotheses?.winning ?? \"\").length > 20);\n check(`${symbol}:opposite_hypothesis`, String(r.assessment?.hypotheses?.opposite ?? \"\").length > 20);\n check(`${symbol}:alternative_hypothesis`, String(r.assessment?.hypotheses?.alternative ?? \"\").length > 20);\n check(`${symbol}:supporting_evidence`, Array.isArray(r.assessment?.supportingEvidence) && r.assessment.supportingEvidence.length >= 1);\n check(`${symbol}:opposing_evidence`, Array.isArray(r.assessment?.opposingEvidence) && r.assessment.opposingEvidence.length >= 1);\n check(`${symbol}:alternative_explanations`, Array.isArray(r.assessment?.alternativeExplanations) && r.assessment.alternativeExplanations.length >= 2);\n check(`${symbol}:falsifiers`, Array.isArray(r.assessment?.falsifiers) && r.assessment.falsifiers.length >= 2);\n check(`${symbol}:next_test`, String(r.assessment?.nextTest ?? \"\").includes(\"5m\"));\n check(`${symbol}:no_trade_recommendation`, r.assessment?.recommendation === \"NO_TRADE_DECISION\");\n check(`${symbol}:receipts_present`, Array.isArray(r.receipts) && r.receipts.length === 3, r.receipts?.length);\n check(`${symbol}:series_present`, Array.isArray(r.shortHorizon?.closeSeries) && r.shortHorizon.closeSeries.length >= 12, r.shortHorizon?.closeSeries?.length);\n const closeTime = Number(r.market?.tickerCloseTime);\n check(`${symbol}:ticker_currentness`, Number.isFinite(closeTime) && Math.abs(Date.now() - closeTime) < 5 * 60_000, { closeTime, ageMs: Date.now() - closeTime });\n}\n\nconst post = await handler(new Request(\"https://local.test/api/analyze?symbol=BTCUSDT\", { method: \"POST\" }));\ncheck(\"post_not_supported\", post.status === 404, post.status);\nconst unknown = await handler(new Request(\"https://local.test/api/does-not-exist\"));\ncheck(\"unknown_route_404\", unknown.status === 404, unknown.status);\n\nconst pass = results.every(r => r.pass);\nconsole.log(JSON.stringify({ pass, version: \"1.0.0\", tests: results.length, results }));\nexport default { pass, tests: results.length };\n",[],[184,264],"7e212623-7391-4247-a9f2-b418b130d038","rate_limit_selftest.ts","4f12cf30-aafb-11f1-9bc1-1607ee4eb77e",37,["D",1788813802512],"import handler from \"../index.ts\";\n\nconst statuses:number[]=[];\nfor(let i=0;i<35;i++){\n const r=await handler(new Request(\"https://local.test/api/health\",{headers:{\"x-forwarded-for\":\"203.0.113.77\"}}));\n statuses.push(r.status);\n}\nconst first30=statuses.slice(0,30);\nconst tail=statuses.slice(30);\nconst pass=first30.every(s=>s===200)&&tail.every(s=>s===429);\nconsole.log(JSON.stringify({pass,statuses,rule:\"30 requests per 60s per runtime bucket\"}));\nif(!pass) throw new Error(\"RATE_LIMIT_SELFTEST_FAIL\");\nexport default {pass};\n",[],[184,272],"730a8d2e-3145-4778-8ee6-6b605efef8b2",["D",1788814216913],[],[184,32],["D",1788813747527],[243,244,245],[184],"e3cf29bc-7423-4ca1-b996-65a9218db616","market.ts","afc5513c-aafa-11f1-a36e-1607ee4eb77e",46,["D",1788814184933],"const BASE = \"https://data-api.binance.vision\";\nconst SYMBOLS = new Set([\"BTCUSDT\", \"ETHUSDT\", \"BNBUSDT\", \"SOLUSDT\", \"XRPUSDT\"]);\nconst FETCH_TIMEOUT_MS = 7000;\n\nexport type MarketEvidenceState = \"PASS\" | \"PARTIAL\" | \"FAIL\";\n\ntype SourceReceipt = {\n name: string;\n url: string;\n status: \"PASS\" | \"FAIL\";\n httpStatus?: number;\n durationMs: number;\n error?: string;\n};\n\ntype Ticker = {\n symbol: string;\n priceChangePercent: string;\n lastPrice: string;\n bidPrice: string;\n askPrice: string;\n highPrice: string;\n lowPrice: string;\n volume: string;\n quoteVolume: string;\n closeTime: number;\n count: number;\n};\ntype Depth = { lastUpdateId: number; bids: [string, string][]; asks: [string, string][] };\ntype Kline = [number, string, string, string, string, string, number, string, number, string, string, string];\n\ntype SignalAtom = { name: string; score: number; observed: string };\n\nfunction num(value: unknown) {\n const n = Number(value);\n return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : Number.NaN;\n}\nfunction round(value: number, digits = 4) {\n if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return null;\n const p = 10 ** digits;\n return Math.round(value * p) / p;\n}\nfunction mean(xs: number[]) {\n return xs.length ? xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length : Number.NaN;\n}\nfunction std(xs: number[]) {\n if (xs.length < 2) return Number.NaN;\n const m = mean(xs);\n return Math.sqrt(xs.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - m) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1));\n}\nfunction zscore(value: number, sample: number[]) {\n const sd = std(sample);\n return Number.isFinite(sd) && sd > 0 ? (value - mean(sample)) / sd : Number.NaN;\n}\nfunction validPositive(value: unknown) {\n const n = Number(value);\n return Number.isFinite(n) && n > 0;\n}\nfunction validNonNegative(value: unknown) {\n const n = Number(value);\n return Number.isFinite(n) && n >= 0;\n}\nfunction validateTicker(value: unknown): value is Ticker {\n const v = value as any;\n return Boolean(v && typeof v === \"object\" && typeof v.symbol === \"string\" &&\n validPositive(v.lastPrice) && validPositive(v.bidPrice) && validPositive(v.askPrice) &&\n validPositive(v.highPrice) && validPositive(v.lowPrice) && validNonNegative(v.quoteVolume) &&\n Number.isFinite(Number(v.priceChangePercent)) && Number.isFinite(Number(v.closeTime)) && Number(v.closeTime) > 0 &&\n Number.isFinite(Number(v.count)) && Number(v.count) >= 0);\n}\nfunction validBookSide(side: unknown): side is [string, string][] {\n return Array.isArray(side) && side.length > 0 && side.every(level =>\n Array.isArray(level) && level.length >= 2 && validPositive(level[0]) && validNonNegative(level[1]));\n}\nfunction validateDepth(value: unknown): value is Depth {\n const v = value as any;\n return Boolean(v && typeof v === \"object\" && Number.isFinite(Number(v.lastUpdateId)) &&\n validBookSide(v.bids) && validBookSide(v.asks));\n}\nfunction validateKlines(value: unknown): value is Kline[] {\n return Array.isArray(value) && value.length >= 7 && value.every((k: any) =>\n Array.isArray(k) && k.length >= 8 && Number.isFinite(Number(k[0])) && Number(k[0]) > 0 &&\n validPositive(k[4]) && Number.isFinite(Number(k[6])) && Number(k[6]) > Number(k[0]) && validNonNegative(k[7]));\n}\nfunction failShape(receipt: SourceReceipt, error: string) {\n receipt.status = \"FAIL\";\n receipt.error = error;\n}\n\nexport function normalizeSymbol(raw: unknown) {\n const symbol = String(raw ?? \"BTCUSDT\").trim().toUpperCase();\n if (!/^[A-Z0-9]{5,20}$/.test(symbol)) throw new Error(\"INVALID_SYMBOL_FORMAT\");\n if (!SYMBOLS.has(symbol)) throw new Error(\"SYMBOL_NOT_ALLOWLISTED\");\n return symbol;\n}\n\nasync function getJson(name: string, path: string): Promise<{ value?: T; receipt: SourceReceipt }> {\n const url = `${BASE}${path}`;\n const started = performance.now();\n const controller = new AbortController();\n const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), FETCH_TIMEOUT_MS);\n try {\n const response = await fetch(url, {\n method: \"GET\",\n headers: { Accept: \"application/json\", \"User-Agent\": \"PayAna-Market-Sentinel/1.1\" },\n signal: controller.signal,\n });\n const durationMs = Math.round(performance.now() - started);\n if (!response.ok) {\n return { receipt: { name, url, status: \"FAIL\", httpStatus: response.status, durationMs, error: `HTTP_${response.status}` } };\n }\n const value = await response.json() as T;\n return { value, receipt: { name, url, status: \"PASS\", httpStatus: response.status, durationMs } };\n } catch (error) {\n return {\n receipt: {\n name,\n url,\n status: \"FAIL\",\n durationMs: Math.round(performance.now() - started),\n error: error instanceof Error ? error.message.slice(0, 180) : String(error).slice(0, 180),\n },\n };\n } finally {\n clearTimeout(timer);\n }\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeMarket(rawSymbol: unknown) {\n const symbol = normalizeSymbol(rawSymbol);\n const fetchedAt = new Date().toISOString();\n const [tickerResult, depthResult, klinesResult] = await Promise.all([\n getJson(\"spot_24h_ticker\", `/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbol=${symbol}`),\n getJson(\"spot_order_book\", `/api/v3/depth?symbol=${symbol}&limit=20`),\n getJson(\"spot_5m_klines\", `/api/v3/klines?symbol=${symbol}&interval=5m&limit=36`),\n ]);\n\n if (tickerResult.receipt.status === \"PASS\" && !validateTicker(tickerResult.value)) failShape(tickerResult.receipt, \"INVALID_TICKER_SHAPE\");\n if (depthResult.receipt.status === \"PASS\" && !validateDepth(depthResult.value)) failShape(depthResult.receipt, \"INVALID_DEPTH_SHAPE\");\n if (klinesResult.receipt.status === \"PASS\" && !validateKlines(klinesResult.value)) failShape(klinesResult.receipt, \"INVALID_KLINES_SHAPE\");\n\n const ticker = tickerResult.receipt.status === \"PASS\" && validateTicker(tickerResult.value) ? tickerResult.value : undefined;\n const depth = depthResult.receipt.status === \"PASS\" && validateDepth(depthResult.value) ? depthResult.value : undefined;\n const klines = klinesResult.receipt.status === \"PASS\" && validateKlines(klinesResult.value) ? klinesResult.value : [];\n const receipts = [tickerResult.receipt, depthResult.receipt, klinesResult.receipt];\n const successes = receipts.filter(r => r.status === \"PASS\").length;\n const evidenceState: MarketEvidenceState = successes === receipts.length ? \"PASS\" : successes > 0 ? \"PARTIAL\" : \"FAIL\";\n const sourceAvailability = { ticker: Boolean(ticker), orderBook: Boolean(depth), klines: klines.length > 0 };\n\n if (evidenceState === \"FAIL\") {\n return {\n symbol,\n evidenceState,\n fetchedAt,\n readOnly: true,\n sourceAvailability,\n error: \"ALL_MARKET_SOURCES_FAILED\",\n receipts,\n boundary: \"MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH\",\n assessment: {\n bias: \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\",\n recommendation: \"NO_TRADE_DECISION\",\n hypotheses: {\n winning: \"No directional hypothesis is admissible because all required market evidence sources failed.\",\n opposite: \"A directional market condition may exist, but this run has no valid evidence with which to establish it.\",\n alternative: \"The failure may be caused by provider/network/runtime conditions rather than the market itself.\",\n },\n supportingEvidence: [\"No valid source survived validation.\"],\n opposingEvidence: [\"No valid source survived validation.\"],\n alternativeExplanations: [\"Provider outage, runtime restriction, timeout or response-shape drift.\"],\n falsifiers: [\"A subsequent run with valid source receipts falsifies the all-sources-failed state.\"],\n nextTest: \"Retry the read-only sources and require at least one validated directional source before assigning market pressure.\",\n },\n };\n }\n\n const last = ticker ? num(ticker.lastPrice) : Number.NaN;\n const bid = ticker ? num(ticker.bidPrice) : Number.NaN;\n const ask = ticker ? num(ticker.askPrice) : Number.NaN;\n const mid = Number.isFinite(bid) && Number.isFinite(ask) && bid > 0 && ask > 0 ? (bid + ask) / 2 : Number.NaN;\n const spreadBps = Number.isFinite(mid) && mid > 0 ? ((ask - bid) / mid) * 10_000 : Number.NaN;\n\n const bidNotional = depth ? depth.bids.reduce((sum, [p, q]) => sum + num(p) * num(q), 0) : Number.NaN;\n const askNotional = depth ? depth.asks.reduce((sum, [p, q]) => sum + num(p) * num(q), 0) : Number.NaN;\n const bookTotal = Number.isFinite(bidNotional) && Number.isFinite(askNotional) ? bidNotional + askNotional : Number.NaN;\n const imbalance = Number.isFinite(bookTotal) && bookTotal > 0 ? (bidNotional - askNotional) / bookTotal : Number.NaN;\n\n const closes = klines.map(k => num(k[4])).filter(Number.isFinite);\n const quoteVolumes = klines.map(k => num(k[7])).filter(Number.isFinite);\n const logReturns = closes.slice(1).map((c, i) => Math.log(c / closes[i])).filter(Number.isFinite);\n const shortVolRaw = std(logReturns);\n const shortVolBps = Number.isFinite(shortVolRaw) ? shortVolRaw * 10_000 : Number.NaN;\n const momentum30mPct = closes.length >= 7 ? (closes.at(-1)! / closes.at(-7)! - 1) * 100 : Number.NaN;\n const momentum3hPct = closes.length >= 2 ? (closes.at(-1)! / closes[0] - 1) * 100 : Number.NaN;\n const lastQuoteVolume = quoteVolumes.length ? quoteVolumes.at(-1)! : Number.NaN;\n const priorVolumes = quoteVolumes.slice(0, -1);\n const volumeZ = Number.isFinite(lastQuoteVolume) && priorVolumes.length >= 4 ? zscore(lastQuoteVolume, priorVolumes) : Number.NaN;\n\n const riskFlags: string[] = [];\n if (!ticker) riskFlags.push(\"MISSING_TICKER_SOURCE\");\n if (!depth) riskFlags.push(\"MISSING_ORDER_BOOK_SOURCE\");\n if (!klines.length) riskFlags.push(\"MISSING_KLINES_SOURCE\");\n if (Number.isFinite(spreadBps) && spreadBps > 2) riskFlags.push(\"WIDE_SPREAD\");\n if (Number.isFinite(imbalance) && Math.abs(imbalance) > 0.55) riskFlags.push(imbalance > 0 ? \"BID_HEAVY_BOOK\" : \"ASK_HEAVY_BOOK\");\n if (Number.isFinite(shortVolBps) && shortVolBps > 18) riskFlags.push(\"HIGH_SHORT_HORIZON_VOLATILITY\");\n if (Number.isFinite(momentum30mPct) && Math.abs(momentum30mPct) > 0.8) riskFlags.push(\"FAST_30M_MOVE\");\n if (Number.isFinite(volumeZ) && Math.abs(volumeZ) > 2) riskFlags.push(\"VOLUME_ANOMALY\");\n\n const signalAtoms: SignalAtom[] = [];\n if (Number.isFinite(imbalance)) signalAtoms.push({ name: \"Top-20 order-book imbalance\", score: Math.tanh(imbalance * 2), observed: `imbalance=${round(imbalance, 4)}` });\n if (Number.isFinite(momentum30mPct)) signalAtoms.push({ name: \"30m momentum\", score: Math.tanh(momentum30mPct / 0.6), observed: `momentum30m=${round(momentum30mPct, 3)}%` });\n if (Number.isFinite(momentum3hPct)) signalAtoms.push({ name: \"3h momentum\", score: Math.tanh(momentum3hPct / 1.5), observed: `momentum3h=${round(momentum3hPct, 3)}%` });\n const directionalScore = signalAtoms.length ? mean(signalAtoms.map(x => x.score)) : Number.NaN;\n const polarity = Number.isFinite(directionalScore) ? (directionalScore > 0.2 ? 1 : directionalScore < -0.2 ? -1 : 0) : 0;\n const bias = !signalAtoms.length ? \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\" : polarity > 0 ? \"BULLISH_PRESSURE\" : polarity < 0 ? \"BEARISH_PRESSURE\" : \"MIXED_NEUTRAL\";\n\n const stabilityPenalty = Math.min(0.7,\n (Number.isFinite(volumeZ) ? Math.abs(volumeZ) * 0.04 : 0) +\n (Number.isFinite(shortVolBps) ? shortVolBps * 0.012 : 0) +\n (Number.isFinite(spreadBps) ? spreadBps * 0.06 : 0) +\n (3 - successes) * 0.18);\n const stabilityScore = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 0.72 - stabilityPenalty));\n\n const aligned = bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\"\n ? []\n : polarity === 0 ? signalAtoms.filter(x => Math.abs(x.score) < 0.35) : signalAtoms.filter(x => Math.sign(x.score) === polarity && Math.abs(x.score) >= 0.08);\n const opposed = bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\"\n ? []\n : polarity === 0 ? signalAtoms.filter(x => Math.abs(x.score) >= 0.35) : signalAtoms.filter(x => Math.sign(x.score) === -polarity && Math.abs(x.score) >= 0.08);\n\n const supportingEvidence = aligned.length\n ? aligned.map(x => `${x.name}: ${x.observed}`)\n : [bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\" ? \"No validated directional component is available.\" : polarity === 0 ? \"No directional component dominates the combined score.\" : \"Combined score is directional, but no single component clears the support threshold strongly enough.\"];\n const opposingEvidence = opposed.length\n ? opposed.map(x => `${x.name}: ${x.observed}`)\n : [bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\" ? \"No validated directional component is available to oppose or support a direction.\" : polarity === 0 ? \"No strong single component breaks the mixed/neutral classification.\" : \"No measured component currently provides strong opposite-direction evidence; this can change on the next book/candle update.\"];\n\n const hypotheses = {\n winning: bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\"\n ? \"Directional pressure is not assigned because the surviving evidence does not contain a validated directional component.\"\n : polarity > 0\n ? \"Current measured pressure leans bullish because the combined microstructure/momentum score is positive.\"\n : polarity < 0\n ? \"Current measured pressure leans bearish because the combined microstructure/momentum score is negative.\"\n : \"Current evidence is mixed/neutral because the measured directional components do not agree strongly enough.\",\n opposite: bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\"\n ? \"A directional condition may exist despite the insufficient reading; recovering a valid directional source can falsify this abstention.\"\n : polarity > 0\n ? \"The bullish-pressure reading is wrong or transient; liquidity can disappear and the next completed candle can reverse the momentum evidence.\"\n : polarity < 0\n ? \"The bearish-pressure reading is wrong or transient; liquidity can disappear and the next completed candle can reverse the momentum evidence.\"\n : \"A directional move may already be forming but is being masked by disagreement across the current short-horizon measurements.\",\n alternative: \"The observed pattern may be short-lived liquidity/noise or mean reversion rather than persistent directional information.\",\n };\n\n const alternativeExplanations = [\n \"Top-of-book liquidity is ephemeral and can change faster than the polling interval.\",\n Number.isFinite(volumeZ) && Math.abs(volumeZ) > 2\n ? \"The latest volume is statistically unusual versus the recent sample, so short-horizon metrics may reflect an event shock.\"\n : Number.isFinite(volumeZ)\n ? \"Volume is not currently extreme versus the recent sample, so the directional reading may simply reflect ordinary microstructure noise.\"\n : \"Volume anomaly could not be assessed because valid candle-volume evidence is unavailable.\",\n \"Funding, derivatives positioning, news and on-chain context are absent from this hosted runtime and could materially change interpretation.\",\n ];\n\n const nextTest = bias === \"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE\"\n ? \"Recover at least one validated directional source (order book or 5m candles), then recompute without zero-imputing missing evidence.\"\n : `At the next completed 5m candle, recompute all available directional components and re-read top-20 depth; challenge the current label if the combined score crosses ${polarity > 0 ? \"below +0.20\" : polarity < 0 ? \"above -0.20\" : \"outside ±0.20\"}${Number.isFinite(imbalance) ? \" or if order-book imbalance changes sign\" : \"\"}.`;\n\n const falsifiers: string[] = [];\n if (Number.isFinite(imbalance)) falsifiers.push(imbalance > 0 ? \"Bid-heavy order book can vanish quickly; recheck if imbalance crosses below 0.\" : \"Ask-heavy order book can vanish quickly; recheck if imbalance crosses above 0.\");\n if (Number.isFinite(momentum30mPct)) falsifiers.push(momentum30mPct > 0 ? \"Bullish 30m momentum is falsified if the next completed 5m close falls below the first close of the 30m window.\" : \"Bearish 30m momentum is falsified if the next completed 5m close rises above the first close of the 30m window.\");\n if (!falsifiers.length) falsifiers.push(\"Recovering a validated directional source can falsify the current insufficient-evidence classification.\");\n falsifiers.push(\"This analysis has no account, position, liquidation, funding, news, or on-chain context.\");\n\n return {\n symbol,\n evidenceState,\n fetchedAt,\n readOnly: true,\n boundary: \"MARKET_DATA_READ != TRADING_AUTH\",\n provider: \"Binance public market-data surface via data-api.binance.vision\",\n sourceAvailability,\n method: {\n version: \"sentinel-1.1.0\",\n missingDataPolicy: \"Missing or malformed sources produce null derived fields and are excluded from directional aggregation; no zero imputation.\",\n spreadBps: \"(ask-bid)/mid*10000\",\n orderBookImbalance: \"(top20_bid_notional-top20_ask_notional)/(top20_bid_notional+top20_ask_notional)\",\n realizedVolatility: \"sample_std(log(close_t/close_t-1))*10000 over 5m candles\",\n volumeZScore: \"(latest_quote_volume-mean(prior_quote_volume))/sample_std(prior_quote_volume)\",\n directionalScore: \"mean of available validated components: tanh(2*imbalance), tanh(momentum30mPct/0.6), tanh(momentum3hPct/1.5)\",\n stabilityScore: \"heuristic 0..1; decreases with |volume z|, short volatility, spread and each missing source; not a probability\",\n },\n market: {\n lastPrice: round(last, 8),\n change24hPct: round(ticker ? num(ticker.priceChangePercent) : Number.NaN, 3),\n high24h: round(ticker ? num(ticker.highPrice) : Number.NaN, 8),\n low24h: round(ticker ? num(ticker.lowPrice) : Number.NaN, 8),\n quoteVolume24h: round(ticker ? num(ticker.quoteVolume) : Number.NaN, 2),\n tradeCount24h: ticker ? Number(ticker.count) : null,\n tickerCloseTime: ticker?.closeTime ?? null,\n },\n microstructure: {\n bid: round(bid, 8),\n ask: round(ask, 8),\n spreadBps: round(spreadBps, 4),\n bidNotionalTop20: round(bidNotional, 2),\n askNotionalTop20: round(askNotional, 2),\n orderBookImbalance: round(imbalance, 4),\n depthUpdateId: depth?.lastUpdateId ?? null,\n },\n shortHorizon: {\n interval: \"5m\",\n candles: klines.length,\n realizedVolatilityBpsPer5m: round(shortVolBps, 3),\n momentum30mPct: round(momentum30mPct, 3),\n momentum3hPct: round(momentum3hPct, 3),\n latestQuoteVolume: round(lastQuoteVolume, 2),\n volumeZScore: round(volumeZ, 3),\n lastClosedOrCurrentCandleCloseTime: klines.at(-1)?.[6] ?? null,\n closeSeries: klines.slice(-24).map(k => ({ time: k[0], close: round(num(k[4]), 8) })),\n },\n assessment: {\n bias,\n signalCount: signalAtoms.length,\n directionalScore: round(directionalScore, 4),\n stabilityScore: round(stabilityScore, 3),\n stabilityMeaning: \"Heuristic snapshot stability score, not a calibrated probability or forecast confidence.\",\n hypotheses,\n supportingEvidence,\n opposingEvidence,\n alternativeExplanations,\n riskFlags,\n recommendation: \"NO_TRADE_DECISION\",\n explanation: \"Read-only evidence synthesis. Directional pressure is descriptive, not a forecast or order recommendation.\",\n falsifiers,\n nextTest,\n },\n missingContext: [\n \"Futures funding/mark-price endpoint unavailable from current Val Town runtime due Binance regional restriction\",\n \"No authenticated Binance account context\",\n \"No portfolio/position context\",\n \"No external news/on-chain context\",\n ],\n receipts,\n };\n}\n\nexport function supportedSymbols() {\n return [...SYMBOLS];\n}\n",[],[191,287],["D",1788812876304],[241],[191],"41a83316-8ca5-4908-9697-c5185260d74d","styles.css","e0a2143e-aafa-11f1-b5e5-1607ee4eb77e",44,["D",1788814044187],":root{color-scheme:dark;--bg:#07090d;--panel:rgba(16,20,27,.78);--panel2:rgba(20,25,33,.64);--line:rgba(255,255,255,.08);--line2:rgba(255,255,255,.13);--text:#f5f7fa;--muted:#929aa8;--soft:#c7ccd4;--green:#63e6be;--amber:#ffd166;--red:#ff7b8b;--blue:#8bb8ff;--violet:#ba9cff;--radius:22px;--shadow:0 24px 70px 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26px;min-height:265px;position:relative;overflow:hidden}.hero-main:after{content:\"\";position:absolute;width:300px;height:300px;border-radius:50%;right:-150px;top:-160px;background:rgba(139,184,255,.08);filter:blur(10px);pointer-events:none}.eyebrow{font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.13em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--blue);font-weight:700}.hero h1{font-size:clamp(34px,5vw,64px);line-height:.98;letter-spacing:-.052em;margin:16px 0 15px;max-width:780px}.hero p{margin:0;max-width:690px;color:#adb5c1;font-size:14px;line-height:1.62}.hero-note{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px;margin-top:24px}.mini-pill{font-size:10px;color:#bbc2cc;border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:999px;padding:6px 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Diff · v47