[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8},"actionData","errors","root",{"_107":108,"_109":110},"routes/embed.x.$handle.$name.$",{"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":18,"_19":20,"_21":-5},"handle","pagosaoutside","name","black-hat-hydrology","path","sources.ts","project",{"_22":45,"_11":12,"_33":46,"_47":-5,"_48":42,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":32,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":71,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_86":87,"_88":42},"file",{"_22":23,"_11":14,"_24":25,"_26":-5,"_27":28,"_29":30,"_31":32,"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":-5,"_13":44},"permalink","https://www.val.town/x/pagosaoutside/black-hat-hydrology/code/sources.ts","extension","id","e3291864-af50-4867-a46d-1dcd8a938dc0","fileId","d2a4f780-ab9e-11f1-9744-1607ee4eb77e","parentId","branchId","70817041-1dfa-4778-885e-ac83be02b1d0","branchVersion",149,"latest",true,"createdAt",["D",1788883407435],"version",2,"fileType","script","content","import { CONFIG } from \"./config.ts\";\nimport {\n addDays,\n firstMondayOfSeptember,\n isoDay,\n mountainCalendarDate,\n waterYear,\n} from \"./dates.ts\";\nimport type { BasinSnapshot, FlowPoint, Milestones, Snotel } from \"./types.ts\";\n\nconst average = (values: unknown[]): number | null => {\n const valid = values.map(Number).filter(Number.isFinite);\n return valid.length\n ? valid.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / valid.length\n : null;\n};\n\nasync function fetchJson(url: string, timeout = 20_000): Promise {\n const controller = new AbortController();\n const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeout);\n try {\n const response = await fetch(url, {\n signal: controller.signal,\n headers: { Accept: \"application/json\" },\n });\n if (!response.ok) {\n const parsed = new URL(url);\n throw new Error(\n `${parsed.hostname}${parsed.pathname} returned ${response.status}`,\n );\n }\n return await response.json();\n } finally {\n clearTimeout(timer);\n }\n}\n\nfunction parseUsgs(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): FlowPoint[] {\n const series = payload?.value?.timeSeries?.[0]?.values?.[0]?.value || [];\n return series.map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(item.dateTime),\n value: Number(item.value),\n }))\n .filter((item: FlowPoint) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value) && item.value >= 0\n )\n .sort((a: FlowPoint, b: FlowPoint) => a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime());\n}\n\nfunction parseSnotel(payload: any, cutoffAt: Date): Snotel {\n const output: Snotel = {};\n for (const station of payload || []) {\n const stationId = String(station.stationTriplet);\n output[stationId] ||= {};\n for (const series of station.data || []) {\n const code = series.stationElement?.elementCode;\n if (!code) continue;\n output[stationId][code] = (series.values || []).map((item: any) => ({\n date: new Date(`${item.date}T12:00:00Z`),\n value: Number(item.value),\n median: item.median === null || item.median === undefined\n ? null\n : Number(item.median),\n })).filter((item: any) =>\n !Number.isNaN(item.date.getTime()) && item.date <= cutoffAt &&\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n }\n }\n return output;\n}\n\nfunction latestAtOrBefore(\n points: T[],\n date: Date,\n): T | null {\n const eligible = (points || []).filter((point) => point.date <= date);\n return eligible.length ? eligible[eligible.length - 1] : null;\n}\n\nfunction stationAverage(\n snotel: Snotel,\n element: string,\n date: Date,\n field: \"value\" | \"median\" = \"value\",\n): number | null {\n return average(\n Object.values(snotel).map((station) =>\n (latestAtOrBefore(station[element] || [], date) as any)?.[field]\n ),\n );\n}\n\nfunction waterYearDay(date: Date): number {\n const year = date.getUTCMonth() >= 9\n ? date.getUTCFullYear()\n : date.getUTCFullYear() - 1;\n return Math.round(\n (Date.UTC(date.getUTCFullYear(), date.getUTCMonth(), date.getUTCDate()) -\n Date.UTC(year, 9, 1)) / 86_400_000,\n );\n}\n\nfunction buildFeatures(\n flowDaily: FlowPoint[],\n currentFlow: number,\n snotel: Snotel,\n now: Date,\n): Record {\n const date7 = addDays(now, -7);\n const date30 = addDays(now, -30);\n const recent7 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const recent30 = flowDaily.filter((point) =>\n point.date >= date30 && point.date <= now\n ).map((point) => point.value);\n const flow7Ago = latestAtOrBefore(flowDaily, date7)?.value ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean7 = average(recent7) ?? currentFlow;\n const flowMean30 = average(recent30) ?? flowMean7;\n const swe = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now) ?? 0;\n const sweMedian = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", now, \"median\") ?? 0;\n const swe7Ago = stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date7) ?? swe;\n const sweRatio = sweMedian > 0.05\n ? Math.min(3, Math.max(0, swe / sweMedian))\n : swe <= 0.05\n ? 0\n : 3;\n const stationIds = Object.keys(snotel);\n const temperatures: number[] = [];\n for (const id of stationIds) {\n for (const point of snotel[id].TAVG || []) {\n if (point.date >= date7 && point.date <= now) {\n temperatures.push(point.value);\n }\n }\n }\n const temp7 = average(temperatures) ?? 32;\n const precipitationChange = (startDate: Date) =>\n average(stationIds.map((id) => {\n const current = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], now)?.value;\n const earlier = latestAtOrBefore(snotel[id].PREC || [], startDate)?.value;\n return Number.isFinite(current) && Number.isFinite(earlier)\n ? Math.max(0, Number(current) - Number(earlier))\n : null;\n })) ?? 0;\n const precip7 = precipitationChange(date7);\n const precip30 = precipitationChange(date30);\n const snowPresent = swe > 0.05 ? 1 : 0;\n const angle = 2 * Math.PI * waterYearDay(now) / 365.25;\n return {\n log_flow: Math.log1p(currentFlow),\n log_flow_mean_7d: Math.log1p(flowMean7),\n log_flow_mean_30d: Math.log1p(flowMean30),\n relative_flow_change_7d: (currentFlow - flow7Ago) /\n (Math.abs(flowMean7) + 30),\n swe_in: swe,\n swe_ratio: sweRatio,\n swe_change_7d: swe - swe7Ago,\n temperature_scaled: (temp7 - 32) / 20,\n prec_total_7d: precip7,\n prec_total_30d: precip30,\n snow_present: snowPresent,\n season_sin: Math.sin(angle),\n season_cos: Math.cos(angle),\n season_sin_2: Math.sin(2 * angle),\n season_cos_2: Math.cos(2 * angle),\n melt_pressure: swe * Math.max(temp7 - 32, 0) / 100,\n rain_without_snow: precip7 * (1 - snowPresent),\n current_flow: currentFlow,\n swe_median: sweMedian,\n temp_7d: temp7,\n precip_7d: precip7,\n };\n}\n\nasync function fetchInstantaneousPeak(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n runoffYear: number,\n cutoffAt: Date,\n): Promise {\n const start = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1));\n const end = new Date(\n Math.min(cutoffAt.getTime(), Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59)),\n );\n const candidate = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= start && item.date <= end\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n if (!candidate) return null;\n const url =\n `https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=${CONFIG.usgsSite}&startDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, -1))\n }&endDT=${\n isoDay(addDays(candidate.date, 2))\n }¶meterCd=00060&siteStatus=all`;\n const values = parseUsgs(await fetchJson(url), cutoffAt);\n return values.reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n}\n\nfunction findTubingOpening(\n series: FlowPoint[],\n after: Date | null,\n): Date | null {\n if (!after) return null;\n const ordered = series.filter((item) => item.date > after).sort((a, b) =>\n a.date.getTime() - b.date.getTime()\n );\n for (let index = 0; index < ordered.length; index += 1) {\n const endPoint = ordered[index];\n const startTime = endPoint.date.getTime() - 24 * 3_600_000;\n const window = ordered.filter((item) =>\n item.date.getTime() >= startTime && item.date <= endPoint.date\n );\n if (window.length < 4) continue;\n if (\n window.at(-1)!.date.getTime() - window[0].date.getTime() < 23 * 3_600_000\n ) continue;\n if (window.every((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400)) {\n return endPoint.date;\n }\n }\n return null;\n}\n\nfunction deriveMilestones(\n dailyFlow: FlowPoint[],\n instantaneous: FlowPoint[],\n snotel: Snotel,\n current: FlowPoint,\n peakInstant: FlowPoint | null,\n): Milestones {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(current.date);\n const waterYearStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear - 1, 9, 1, 12));\n const springStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 2, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 3, 1, 12));\n const peakWindowEnd = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 6, 31, 23, 59));\n const recreationStart = new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 4, 1, 12));\n const laborDay = firstMondayOfSeptember(runoffYear);\n laborDay.setUTCHours(23, 59, 59, 999);\n const waterYearDaily = dailyFlow.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= waterYearStart && item.date <= current.date\n );\n const springDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) => item.date >= springStart);\n const first400 = springDaily.find((item) => item.value >= 400) || null;\n const peakDaily = springDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= peakWindowStart && item.date <= peakWindowEnd\n )\n .reduce(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeak = peakDaily\n ? Math.floor(\n (current.date.getTime() - peakDaily.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000,\n )\n : 0;\n const dropFromPeak = peakDaily?.value\n ? 1 - current.value / peakDaily.value\n : 0;\n const peakFlowLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakDaily && daysSincePeak >= 6 && dropFromPeak >= 0.18,\n );\n let tubingForecastTrigger: FlowPoint | null = null;\n if (peakDaily) {\n const peakIndex = springDaily.findIndex((item) =>\n isoDay(item.date) === isoDay(peakDaily.date) &&\n item.value === peakDaily.value\n );\n for (\n let index = Math.max(2, peakIndex + 1);\n index < springDaily.length;\n index += 1\n ) {\n const item = springDaily[index];\n const fallingThreeDay = item.value < springDaily[index - 2].value;\n const eligible = peakDaily.value >= 800\n ? item.value < 800\n : peakFlowLikelyPassed;\n if (eligible && fallingThreeDay) {\n tubingForecastTrigger = item;\n break;\n }\n }\n }\n const dailyTubingFallback = peakDaily\n ? springDaily.find((item) =>\n item.date > peakDaily.date && item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400\n )?.date || null\n : null;\n const tubingOpening =\n findTubingOpening(instantaneous, peakDaily?.date || null) ||\n dailyTubingFallback;\n const seasonDaily = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart && item.date <= laborDay &&\n item.date <= current.date\n );\n const counts = {\n p300: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 300).length,\n p600: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 600).length,\n p800: seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 800).length,\n tubing:\n seasonDaily.filter((item) => item.value >= 30 && item.value < 400).length,\n };\n const strengthDays = waterYearDaily.filter((item) =>\n item.date >= recreationStart &&\n item.date <= new Date(Date.UTC(runoffYear, 5, 30, 23, 59))\n );\n const strength = average(strengthDays.map((item) => item.value));\n const snowDates = [\n ...new Set(\n Object.values(snotel).flatMap((station) =>\n (station.WTEQ || []).map((item) => isoDay(item.date))\n ),\n ),\n ]\n .map((value) => new Date(`${value}T12:00:00Z`)).filter((date) =>\n date >= waterYearStart && date <= current.date\n ).sort((a, b) => a.getTime() - b.getTime());\n const snowSeries = snowDates.map((date) => ({\n date,\n value: stationAverage(snotel, \"WTEQ\", date),\n }))\n .filter((item): item is { date: Date; value: number } =>\n Number.isFinite(item.value)\n );\n let persistentSnow = null;\n for (let index = 0; index <= snowSeries.length - 7; index += 1) {\n const window = snowSeries.slice(index, index + 7);\n if (window[0].value >= 1 && window.every((item) => item.value >= 0.5)) {\n persistentSnow = window[0];\n break;\n }\n }\n const peakSwe = snowSeries.reduce<{ date: Date; value: number } | null>(\n (best, item) => !best || item.value > best.value ? item : best,\n null,\n );\n const daysSincePeakSwe = peakSwe\n ? Math.floor((current.date.getTime() - peakSwe.date.getTime()) / 86_400_000)\n : 0;\n const currentSwe = snowSeries.at(-1)?.value || 0;\n const peakSweLikelyPassed = Boolean(\n peakSwe && peakSwe.value >= 1 && daysSincePeakSwe >= 14 &&\n currentSwe <= peakSwe.value * 0.7,\n );\n return {\n runoffYear,\n laborDay,\n first400,\n peakDaily,\n peakInstant,\n peakFlowLikelyPassed,\n tubingForecastTrigger,\n tubingOpening,\n counts,\n strength,\n persistentSnow,\n peakSwe,\n peakSweLikelyPassed,\n };\n}\n\nexport async function fetchBasinSnapshot(\n cutoffAt = new Date(),\n): Promise {\n const runoffYear = waterYear(cutoffAt);\n // Models use 7- and 30-day history. 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