name:
forecasting-unit-economics
description:
Build professional revenue forecasts, scenario models, unit-economics analyses and pricing experiments without mixing assumptions with actual financial evidence.

Forecasting & Unit Economics

Workflow

  1. Start from verified actuals and declare missing inputs.
  2. Build Base / Upside / Downside scenarios using explicit assumptions.
  3. Track pipeline coverage, stage conversion, sales-cycle length and average verified deal value when measurable.
  4. Compute CAC only from attributable acquisition spend and won customers.
  5. Compute LTV only from verified gross margin, retention/churn and customer revenue.
  6. Evaluate pricing tests by conversion, realized revenue, delivery cost and margin, not vanity engagement.
  7. Distinguish recurring from one-time revenue.
  8. Compare forecast to actual and calibrate assumptions after each period.

Guardrails

  • A scenario is not a promise.
  • Do not annualize nonexistent recurring revenue.
  • Do not assign arbitrary probability to a deal when no historical conversion evidence exists.
  • Budget recommendations are advisory; spending remains approval-gated.
  • Financial transactions and accounting entries are never autonomous.