[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8},"actionData","errors","root",{"_102":103,"_104":105},"routes/embed.x.$handle.$name.$",{"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":18,"_19":20,"_21":-5},"handle","lorencetang","name","bonereaper-research","path","residual_target.ts","project",{"_22":45,"_11":12,"_33":46,"_47":-5,"_48":42,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_55":56,"_57":-5,"_58":42,"_59":-5,"_60":-5,"_61":36,"_62":63,"_64":-5,"_65":-5,"_66":-5,"_67":-5,"_68":69,"_70":69,"_71":72,"_73":72,"_74":72,"_75":69,"_76":69,"_77":78,"_79":80,"_81":82,"_83":42},"file",{"_22":23,"_11":14,"_24":25,"_26":-5,"_27":28,"_29":30,"_31":32,"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":-5,"_13":44},"permalink","https://www.val.town/x/lorencetang/bonereaper-research/code/residual_target.ts","extension","id","b0696e88-4474-4a9f-a17f-19301f4e8e9c","fileId","e5c0e82c-a04c-11f1-884e-1607ee4eb77e","parentId","branchId","9d40217d-c61c-40ef-8c38-7b3d9418280a","branchVersion",25,"latest",true,"createdAt",["D",1787638755768],"version",0,"fileType","script","content","const WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30',LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,rem:number,u:number,d:number,old:number,twap:number};const ticks=new Map(), outcomes=new Map();function N(s:any){return(!s||s==='n/a')?NaN:+s;}\nconst rr=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!rr.body)throw Error('log');const rd=rr.body.getReader(),dc=new TextDecoder();let b='';while(true){const{value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;b+=dc.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=b.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const l=b.slice(0,i);b=b.slice(i+1);if(l.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=l.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\]/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const t={slug:m[2],ts:Date.parse(m[1])/1000,rem:+m[3],old:+m[4],twap:+m[5],u:+m[6],d:+m[7]};if(!ticks.has(t.slug))ticks.set(t.slug,[]);ticks.get(t.slug)!.push(t);}}if(l.includes('[Event PnL]')){const m=l.match(/event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?outcome=(UP|DOWN)/);if(m)outcomes.set(m[1],m[2]);}}}for(const a of ticks.values())a.sort((x,y)=>x.ts-y.ts);\nlet cp:any[]=[];for(let o=0;o<5000;o+=50){let res=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/closed-positions?user=${WAL}&limit=50&offset=${o}&sortBy=TIMESTAMP&sortDirection=DESC`);if(!res.ok)break;const j=await res.json();if(!j.length)break;cp.push(...j);}const gm=new Map();for(const p of cp)if(p.slug?.startsWith('btc-updown-5m-')&&ticks.has(p.slug)&&outcomes.has(p.slug)&&!gm.has(p.conditionId))gm.set(p.conditionId,{conditionId:p.conditionId,slug:p.slug});const markets=[...gm.values()].sort((a,b)=>+b.slug.split('-').at(-1)-+a.slug.split('-').at(-1)).slice(0,30);\nasync function tr(c:string,to:boolean){let z:any[]=[];for(let o=0;o<3000;o+=100){let res=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`);if(!res.ok){await new Promise(r=>setTimeout(r,150));res=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`);}if(!res.ok)break;const txt=await res.text();if(!txt.trim().startsWith('['))break;const j=JSON.parse(txt);if(!j.length)break;z.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return z;}function key(t:any){return[t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,(+t.size).toFixed(8),(+t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}function fee(p:number){return .07*p*(1-p);}function near(s:string,ts:number){let best:any=null,bd=1e9;for(const x of ticks.get(s)||[]){const d=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(dl.side==='UP').reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q,0),qD=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='DOWN').reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q,0),cU=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='UP').reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q*l.c,0),cD=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='DOWN').reduce((a,l)=>a+l.q*l.c,0),cost=cU+cD;let U=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='UP').map(l=>({...l})).sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c),D=lots.filter(l=>l.side==='DOWN').map(l=>({...l})).sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c),i=0,j=0,pairQ=0,pairProfit=0,pairCost=0;while(i=1)break;const q=Math.min(u.q,d.q),pc=u.c+d.c;pairQ+=q;pairProfit+=q*(1-pc);pairCost+=q*pc;u.q-=q;d.q-=q;if(u.q<1e-9)i++;if(d.q<1e-9)j++;}const pnlU=qU-cost,pnlD=qD-cost,worst=Math.min(pnlU,pnlD),best=Math.max(pnlU,pnlD),ev=pm*qU+(1-pm)*qD-cost;return{qU,qD,cU,cD,cost,I:qU-qD,absI:Math.abs(qU-qD),pnlU,pnlD,worst,best,worstLoss:Math.max(0,-worst),ev,pairQ,pairProfit,pairCost};}\nconst rows:any[]=[];for(const m of markets){const all=await tr(m.conditionId,false),tak=await tr(m.conditionId,true),ks=new Set(tak.map(key));const ord=all.map((t:any)=>{const p=+t.price,role:'M'|'T'=ks.has(key(t))?'T':'M';return{raw:t,side:t.outcome.toUpperCase() as 'UP'|'DOWN',role,q:+t.size,p,c:p+(role==='T'?fee(p):0),ts:+t.timestamp};}).sort((a,b)=>a.ts-b.ts||a.raw.transactionHash.localeCompare(b.raw.transactionHash));const lots:Lot[]=[];for(const x of ord){const tick=near(m.slug,x.ts);if(!tick){lots.push({side:x.side,role:x.role,q:x.q,c:x.c,p:x.p,ts:x.ts});continue;}const pm=Math.max(.001,Math.min(.999,(tick.u+(1-tick.d))/2)),before=state(lots,pm);lots.push({side:x.side,role:x.role,q:x.q,c:x.c,p:x.p,ts:x.ts});const after=state(lots,pm);if(x.role==='T'){const fav=tick.u=0?1:-1,twSign=tick.twap>=0?1:-1;rows.push({slug:m.slug,ts:x.ts,rem:tick.rem,side:x.side,p:x.p,q:x.q,notional:x.p*x.q,pm,fav,cheap,nonfav,alignOld:sideSign===oldSign,alignTw:sideSign===twSign,before,after,dPairProfit:after.pairProfit-before.pairProfit,dPairQ:after.pairQ-before.pairQ,dWorst:after.worst-before.worst,dWorstLoss:after.worstLoss-before.worstLoss,dEV:after.ev-before.ev,dAbsI:after.absI-before.absI,dI:after.I-before.I,improvesWorst:after.worst>before.worst+1e-9,reducesWorstLoss:after.worstLossbefore.pairProfit+1e-9,evAdd:after.ev>before.ev+1e-9,winner:outcomes.get(m.slug),won:x.side===outcomes.get(m.slug)});}}}\nfunction quant(a:number[],p:number){const z=a.filter(Number.isFinite).sort((a,b)=>a-b);return z.length?z[Math.floor((z.length-1)*p)]:NaN;}function S(z:any[]){const n=z.length,sum=(k:string)=>z.reduce((a,r)=>a+(Number.isFinite(r[k])?r[k]:0),0),cnt=(k:string)=>z.filter(r=>r[k]).length;return{n,notional:sum('notional'),pairAdd:cnt('pairAdd')/n,improvesWorst:cnt('improvesWorst')/n,rebal:cnt('rebal')/n,evAdd:cnt('evAdd')/n,nonfav:cnt('nonfav')/n,cheap:cnt('cheap')/n,winRate:cnt('won')/n,medianBeforeWorstLoss:quant(z.map(r=>r.before.worstLoss),.5),p75BeforeWorstLoss:quant(z.map(r=>r.before.worstLoss),.75),medianAbsI:quant(z.map(r=>r.before.absI),.5),medianPairProfit:quant(z.map(r=>r.before.pairProfit),.5),medianDPQ:quant(z.map(r=>r.dPairQ),.5),medianDPairProfit:quant(z.map(r=>r.dPairProfit),.5),medianDWorst:quant(z.map(r=>r.dWorst),.5),medianDEV:quant(z.map(r=>r.dEV),.5)};}\nconsole.log('MARKETS',markets.length,'TAKER_ROWS',rows.length,'ALL',S(rows));\nconst cats:any={PAIR:rows.filter(r=>r.pairAdd),RISK_ONLY:rows.filter(r=>!r.pairAdd&&r.improvesWorst),CHEAP_FIRST:rows.filter(r=>!r.pairAdd&&!r.improvesWorst&&r.cheap&&r.nonfav),FAV_ADD:rows.filter(r=>!r.pairAdd&&!r.improvesWorst&&!r.nonfav),OTHER:rows.filter(r=>!r.pairAdd&&!r.improvesWorst&&!(r.cheap&&r.nonfav)&&r.nonfav)};for(const [k,z] of Object.entries(cats) as any)console.log('CAT',k,S(z));\n// exclusive reason counts using priority Pair > risk repair > cheap first leg > favorite add > other\nconst reason=(r:any)=>r.pairAdd?'PAIR':r.improvesWorst?'RISK':(r.cheap&&r.nonfav)?'FIRSTLEG':(!r.nonfav?'FAV':'OTHER');const rc=new Map();for(const r of rows){const k=reason(r);if(!rc.has(k))rc.set(k,[]);rc.get(k)!.push(r);}console.log('REASONS',Object.fromEntries([...rc].map(([k,z])=>[k,S(z)])));\n// test what pre-trade state predicts risk repair: bins by worst-loss and |I| quantiles, comparing fraction of takers that improve worst-case\nconst wlq=[0,.2,.4,.6,.8,1].map(p=>quant(rows.map(r=>r.before.worstLoss),p)),iq=[0,.2,.4,.6,.8,1].map(p=>quant(rows.map(r=>r.before.absI),p));console.log('WL_Q',wlq,'I_Q',iq);for(let k=0;k<5;k++){const z=rows.filter(r=>r.before.worstLoss>=wlq[k]&&(k===4?r.before.worstLoss<=wlq[k+1]:r.before.worstLossr.before.absI>=iq[k]&&(k===4?r.before.absI<=iq[k+1]:r.before.absI0 (more UP), DOWN repairs; if I<0, UP repairs.\nfor(const r of rows){const repairSide=r.before.I>0?'DOWN':r.before.I<0?'UP':'NONE';r.sideIsRepair=r.side===repairSide;r.sideIsFav=r.side===r.fav;r.riskPressure=r.before.cost? r.before.worstLoss/r.before.cost:0;}\nconsole.log('SIDE_RULES',{repairSide:rows.filter(r=>r.sideIsRepair).length/rows.length,favorite:rows.filter(r=>r.sideIsFav).length/rows.length,old:rows.filter(r=>r.alignOld).length/rows.length,twap:rows.filter(r=>r.alignTw).length/rows.length});\nconst rpq=[0,.2,.4,.6,.8,1].map(p=>quant(rows.map(r=>r.riskPressure),p));console.log('RISK_PRESSURE_Q',rpq);for(let k=0;k<5;k++){const z=rows.filter(r=>r.riskPressure>=rpq[k]&&(k===4?r.riskPressure<=rpq[k+1]:r.riskPressurer.sideIsRepair).length/z.length,favorite:z.filter(r=>r.sideIsFav).length/z.length});}\n// representative largest pair/risk/firstleg/favorite trades\nfor(const k of ['PAIR','RISK','FIRSTLEG','FAV']){const z=rows.filter(r=>reason(r)===k).sort((a,b)=>b.notional-a.notional).slice(0,12).map(r=>({slug:r.slug,rem:r.rem,side:r.side,p:r.p,q:r.q,not:+r.notional.toFixed(2),fav:r.fav,beforeI:+r.before.I.toFixed(1),beforeWorst:+r.before.worst.toFixed(1),dPair:+r.dPairProfit.toFixed(2),dWorst:+r.dWorst.toFixed(2),dEV:+r.dEV.toFixed(2)}));console.log('EXAMPLES',k,z);}","deleted",false,"label",[14],"be8d73ba-65d5-43f6-a82f-cf6d74f2b655",["D",1787635928982],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Stream BoneReaper and BTC log analysis","imageUrl","userId","b13d5b98-32fd-4204-bf50-fce395eb52e3","pinnedFileId","pinPreview","pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount","orgId","01a0186b-55d3-76bb-8f28-5e239a5e05cf","tursoName","tursoHostname","tursoMeasuredAt","pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_9":10,"_101":97},"org",{"_9":10,"_94":95,"_96":97,"_55":56,"_98":99,"_100":42},"branch",{"_35":84,"_11":85,"_22":28,"_86":45,"_87":-5,"_88":-5,"_89":-5,"_90":-5,"_91":-5,"_92":12,"_93":10},"isOwned",28,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","displayName","Lorence Tang","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXYNWn4Fg7SDJtPMUkccTZpjUdPW31lGVY1hyWwUNH-uR15Q=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","ctx",{"_77":-5,"_135":136,"_137":138,"_139":140,"_141":42,"_142":42,"_143":42,"_144":32,"_145":-5,"_146":-7,"_147":-7,"_148":36,"_149":42,"_150":42,"_151":-5,"_152":42,"_153":42,"_154":42,"_155":-5},"ENV",{"_106":107,"_108":109,"_110":85,"_111":112,"_113":114,"_115":116,"_117":118,"_119":120,"_121":122,"_123":124,"_125":126,"_127":128,"_129":130,"_131":132,"_133":134},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","e87eb04e707cf64e7e532c8e8ec395f209e17f15","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town","orgs",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]