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WAL='0xeebde7a0e019a63e6b476eb425505b7b3e6eba30',LOG='https://site6666.easycryptofiat.com/jjo3-fetch.log';\ntype Tick={slug:string,ts:number,u:number,d:number,old:number,twap:number,rem:number};const ticks=new Map(),outcomes=new Map();function N(s:any){return(!s||s==='n/a')?NaN:+s;}const R=await fetch(LOG,{headers:{'accept-encoding':'identity'}});if(!R.body)throw Error('log');const rd=R.body.getReader(),dc=new TextDecoder();let b='';while(true){const{value,done}=await rd.read();if(done)break;b+=dc.decode(value,{stream:true});let i;while((i=b.indexOf('\\n'))>=0){const l=b.slice(0,i);b=b.slice(i+1);if(l.includes('[BSPS_TICK] event=btc-updown-5m-')){const m=l.match(/^(\\S+?)\\[INFO\\].*?event=(btc-updown-5m-\\d+).*?rem_s=(\\d+).*?old_d2s=([^ ]+).*?twap_d2s=([^ ]+).*?book=U\\[([0-9.]+)\\]\\/D\\[([0-9.]+)\\]/);if(m&&Number.isFinite(N(m[4]))&&Number.isFinite(N(m[5]))){const 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o=0;o<3000;o+=100){let res=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`);if(!res.ok){await new Promise(r=>setTimeout(r,100));res=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=${WAL}&market=${c}&takerOnly=${to}&limit=100&offset=${o}`);}if(!res.ok)break;const txt=await res.text();if(!txt.trim().startsWith('['))break;const j=JSON.parse(txt);if(!j.length)break;z.push(...j);if(j.length<100)break;}return z;}function key(t:any){return[t.transactionHash,t.timestamp,t.outcome,(+t.size).toFixed(8),(+t.price).toFixed(8)].join('|');}function fee(p:number){return .07*p*(1-p);}function near(s:string,ts:number){let q:any=null,d=1e9;for(const x of ticks.get(s)||[]){const e=Math.abs(x.ts-ts);if(ex.side==='UP').reduce((a,x)=>a+x.q,0),qD=l.filter(x=>x.side==='DOWN').reduce((a,x)=>a+x.q,0),cost=l.reduce((a,x)=>a+x.q*x.c,0);let U=l.filter(x=>x.side==='UP').map(x=>({...x})).sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c),D=l.filter(x=>x.side==='DOWN').map(x=>({...x})).sort((a,b)=>a.c-b.c),i=0,j=0,pp=0,pq=0;while(i=1)break;const q=Math.min(u.q,d.q);pq+=q;pp+=q*(1-u.c-d.c);u.q-=q;d.q-=q;if(u.q<1e-9)i++;if(d.q<1e-9)j++;}return{qU,qD,I:qU-qD,absI:Math.abs(qU-qD),cost,worst:Math.min(qU-cost,qD-cost),worstLoss:Math.max(0,-Math.min(qU-cost,qD-cost)),ev:pm*qU+(1-pm)*qD-cost,pairProfit:pp,pairQ:pq};}\nconst eventData:any[]=[];for(const m of markets){const all=await tr(m.conditionId,false),tak=await tr(m.conditionId,true),ks=new Set(tak.map(key));const ord=all.map((t:any)=>{const p=+t.price,role:'M'|'T'=ks.has(key(t))?'T':'M';return{side:t.outcome.toUpperCase() as 'UP'|'DOWN',q:+t.size,p,c:p+(role==='T'?fee(p):0),role,ts:+t.timestamp,raw:t};}).sort((a,b)=>a.ts-b.ts||a.raw.transactionHash.localeCompare(b.raw.transactionHash));eventData.push({m,ord});}\ntype 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ok=(reason==='PAIR'&&pol.allowPair)||(reason==='RISK'&&pol.allowRisk)||(reason==='FIRST'&&pol.allowFirst)||(reason==='FAV'&&pol.allowFav);if(ok&&pol.riskCap!==undefined){const pressure=aft.cost?aft.worstLoss/aft.cost:0;if(pressure>pol.riskCap&&!isPair&&!isRisk)ok=false;}if(ok&&pol.firstCap!==undefined&&reason==='FIRST'){const pressure=aft.cost?aft.worstLoss/aft.cost:0;if(pressure>pol.firstCap)ok=false;}if(ok){lots.push({side:x.side,q:x.q,c:x.c,role:x.role});acceptedT++;byReason[reason]++;}}\n const s=st(lots),winner=outcomes.get(m.slug)!;const epayout=winner==='UP'?s.qU:s.qD,epnl=epayout-s.cost;cost+=s.cost;payout+=epayout;pairProfit+=s.pairProfit;eventPnls.push(epnl);}return{name:pol.name,cost,payout,pnl:payout-cost,roi:cost?(payout-cost)/cost:0,pairProfit,acceptedT,acceptedM,byReason,wins:eventPnls.filter(x=>x>0).length,losses:eventPnls.filter(x=>x<=0).length,worstEvent:Math.min(...eventPnls),bestEvent:Math.max(...eventPnls)};}\nconst policies:Policy[]=[{name:'MAKER_ONLY',allowPair:false,allowRisk:false,allowFirst:false,allowFav:false},{name:'M+PAIR',allowPair:true,allowRisk:false,allowFirst:false,allowFav:false},{name:'M+PAIR+RISK',allowPair:true,allowRisk:true,allowFirst:false,allowFav:false},{name:'M+PAIR+RISK+FIRST',allowPair:true,allowRisk:true,allowFirst:true,allowFav:false},{name:'ALL_DYNAMIC',allowPair:true,allowRisk:true,allowFirst:true,allowFav:true},{name:'NO_FAV',allowPair:true,allowRisk:true,allowFirst:true,allowFav:false},{name:'NO_FIRST',allowPair:true,allowRisk:true,allowFirst:false,allowFav:true}];for(const p of policies)console.log('POLICY',run(p));\n// Risk caps are empirical quantiles from BoneReaper pre-taker risk pressure, not arbitrary. derive from full actual chronological simulation states.\nconst pressures:number[]=[];for(const {m,ord} of eventData){const lots:L[]=[];for(const x of ord){const 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