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This is the\n// shared foundation for the VALUE pillar (venue mispricing) and, later, for\n// mapping a news/disclosure event to the market it moves.\n//\n// It reads public Kalshi data only. No keys, no orders.\n\nconst KALSHI = \"https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2\";\n\nconst STOP = new Set(\n \"a an the of to in on for and or is are be will who what which when where by at as this that it whos then do does did have has had not no s with more over under most between valid than then into out up down\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\n// Generic words shared across many markets — present but NOT distinctive.\nconst GENERIC = new Set(\n \"democratic democrat republican gop presidential president vice vp nomination nominee nominated election elect electoral senate senator house congress governor gubernatorial mayor mayoral party primary race win wins winner won run runs running candidate candidacy next control chamber seat seats margin victory popular vote votes general ticket secretary attorney prime minister chancellor premier king queen pope ceo chairman chair leader head monarch state states us united year record decision\"\n .split(\" \"),\n);\nconst WIN = new Set([\"win\", \"wins\", \"winner\", \"won\"]);\nconst RUN = new Set([\"run\", \"runs\", \"running\", \"candidate\", \"candidacy\", \"enter\", \"declare\", \"announce\", \"launch\"]);\nconst RETIRE = new Set([\"retire\", \"retires\", \"retirement\", \"resign\", \"resigns\", \"step\", \"steps\"]);\nconst SELECTION = new Set([\"nominee\", \"nominated\", \"nomination\", \"winner\", \"win\", \"wins\", \"won\", \"election\", \"elected\"]);\n// \"advance to the runoff / next round\" is a DIFFERENT bet than \"win\" — guard it.\nconst ADVANCE = new Set([\"advance\", \"advances\", \"advancing\", \"runoff\", \"qualify\", \"qualifies\", \"qualified\"]);\nconst MONTHS = new Set([\n \"january\", \"february\", \"march\", \"april\", \"may\", \"june\", \"july\",\n \"august\", \"september\", \"october\", \"november\", \"december\",\n \"jan\", \"feb\", \"mar\", \"apr\", \"jun\", \"jul\", \"aug\", \"sep\", \"sept\", \"oct\", \"nov\", \"dec\",\n]);\nconst MONTH_CANON: Record = {\n jan: \"january\", feb: \"february\", mar: \"march\", apr: \"april\", jun: \"june\",\n jul: \"july\", aug: \"august\", sep: \"september\", sept: \"september\", oct: \"october\",\n nov: \"november\", dec: \"december\",\n};\n\nfunction fnum(x: unknown): number {\n const n = parseFloat(String(x));\n return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : 0;\n}\n// Naive singularization so \"rates\"/\"rate\", \"elections\"/\"election\",\n// \"republicans\"/\"republican\" unify across venues that phrase things differently.\nfunction stem(w: string): string {\n return w.length > 3 && w.endsWith(\"s\") && !w.endsWith(\"ss\") && !w.endsWith(\"us\") ? w.slice(0, -1) : w;\n}\nfunction tok(text: string): string[] {\n return (text || \"\").toLowerCase().match(/[a-z0-9]+/g)?.filter((w) => !STOP.has(w) && w.length >= 2).map(stem) ?? [];\n}\nfunction subjects(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => !GENERIC.has(w) && w.length >= 3 && !/^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w) && !MONTHS.has(w)));\n}\nfunction years(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => /^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(w)));\n}\nfunction months(toks: string[]): Set {\n return new Set(toks.filter((w) => MONTHS.has(w)).map((w) => MONTH_CANON[w] ?? w));\n}\nfunction action(toks: string[]): string {\n const s = new Set(toks);\n const has = (g: Set) => [...g].some((w) => s.has(w));\n if (has(ADVANCE)) return \"ADVANCE\";\n if (has(RETIRE)) return \"RETIRE\";\n if (has(WIN) && !has(RUN)) return \"WIN\";\n if (has(RUN) && !has(WIN)) return \"RUN\";\n return \"UNKNOWN\";\n}\n// Distinctive numbers: price levels, bps, percentages, counts. Normalizes\n// $120k -> 120000, 2.5% -> 2.5, \"25 bps\" -> 25. Used to catch same-topic\n// markets betting on DIFFERENT thresholds (Fed 25 vs 50 bps; BTC 120k vs 130k).\nfunction numbers(text: string): Set {\n const out = new Set();\n const re = /\\$?\\s*([0-9][0-9,]*(?:\\.[0-9]+)?)\\s*(k|m|bn|b|billion|million|trillion|t|bps|%)?/gi;\n let mm: RegExpExecArray | null;\n while ((mm = re.exec(text)) !== null) {\n let v = parseFloat(mm[1].replace(/,/g, \"\"));\n if (!Number.isFinite(v)) continue;\n const suf = (mm[2] ?? \"\").toLowerCase();\n if (suf === \"k\") v *= 1e3;\n else if (suf === \"m\" || suf === \"million\") v *= 1e6;\n else if (suf === \"bn\" || suf === \"b\" || suf === \"billion\") v *= 1e9;\n else if (suf === \"t\" || suf === \"trillion\") v *= 1e12;\n // bps and % kept as-is; a bare 2026 is dropped as a year, handled separately\n if (/^(19|20)\\d\\d$/.test(mm[1]) && !suf) continue;\n out.add(String(v));\n }\n return out;\n}\nfunction inter(a: Set, b: Set): number {\n let n = 0;\n for (const x of a) if (b.has(x)) n++;\n return n;\n}\nfunction overlapRatio(a: string[], b: string[]): number {\n const A = new Set(a), B = new Set(b);\n const m = Math.min(A.size, B.size);\n return m ? inter(A, B) / m : 0;\n}\n\nexport interface Parsed {\n text: string;\n tok: string[];\n subj: Set;\n yr: Set;\n mo: Set;\n num: Set;\n act: string;\n}\nexport function parse(text: string): Parsed {\n const t = tok(text);\n return { text, tok: t, subj: subjects(t), yr: years(t), mo: months(t), num: numbers(text), act: action(t) };\n}\n\nexport interface KMarket {\n eventTitle: string;\n subtitle: string;\n ticker: string;\n text: string;\n yesAsk: number; // dollars, 0..1\n noAsk: number;\n vol: number;\n p: Parsed;\n}\n\nasync function getJson(url: string): Promise {\n const r = await fetch(url, {\n headers: { \"User-Agent\": \"Mozilla/5.0\", \"Accept\": \"application/json\" },\n signal: AbortSignal.timeout(15000),\n });\n if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`${url} -> ${r.status}`);\n return r.json();\n}\n\nexport interface KalshiFetch {\n markets: KMarket[];\n pagesFetched: number;\n error: string | null; // non-null = the catalog is INCOMPLETE; do not read\n // an empty/short result as \"no matching markets exist\".\n truncated: boolean; // hit the page cap with more pages available\n}\n\n// One KMarket per tradeable (priced) Kalshi outcome, carrying its ticker and\n// executable-ish asks so the caller can compute a venue price gap.\n// Fails LOUDLY: Kalshi rate-limits heavy paging, and a silent empty catalog\n// would masquerade as \"nothing matched\". Retries each page once with a pause.\nexport async function fetchKalshiMarkets(pages = 15): Promise {\n const out: KMarket[] = [];\n let cursor = \"\";\n let error: string | null = null;\n let fetched = 0;\n for (let i = 0; i < pages; i++) {\n let j: any;\n try {\n j = await getJson(`${KALSHI}/events?status=open&limit=200&with_nested_markets=true${cursor ? `&cursor=${cursor}` : \"\"}`);\n } catch (e1) {\n await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 1200)); // back off, then one retry\n try {\n j = await getJson(`${KALSHI}/events?status=open&limit=200&with_nested_markets=true${cursor ? `&cursor=${cursor}` : \"\"}`);\n } catch (e2) {\n error = `page ${i + 1}: ${String((e2 as Error)?.message ?? e2)}`;\n break;\n }\n }\n fetched++;\n for (const ev of j.events ?? []) {\n const title: string = ev.title ?? \"\";\n for (const m of ev.markets ?? []) {\n const ya = fnum(m.yes_ask_dollars ?? (m.yes_ask != null ? m.yes_ask / 100 : 0));\n const na = fnum(m.no_ask_dollars ?? (m.no_ask != null ? m.no_ask / 100 : 0));\n const vol = fnum(m.volume_fp ?? m.volume);\n const sub = m.yes_sub_title || m.subtitle || \"\";\n const text = (title + \" \" + sub).trim();\n out.push({\n eventTitle: title, subtitle: sub, ticker: m.ticker ?? ev.event_ticker ?? \"\",\n text, yesAsk: ya, noAsk: na, vol, p: parse(text),\n });\n }\n }\n cursor = j.cursor ?? \"\";\n if (!cursor) break;\n }\n // Ran out of pages while Kalshi still had more: the catalog is TRUNCATED, so\n // a missing match may simply be a market we never fetched.\n const truncated = Boolean(cursor) && !error;\n return { markets: out, pagesFetched: fetched, error, truncated };\n}\n\nexport interface MatchResult {\n ok: boolean;\n score: number;\n reason: string;\n k: KMarket | null;\n}\n\n// Guarded match of one Polymarket question against Kalshi candidates.\n// Rejects: <2 shared distinctive subjects; win/run/retire action conflict;\n// year conflict; month (expiry) conflict; distinct-number (threshold) conflict;\n// a WIN question against a non-selection market. Requires token overlap >= minScore.\nexport function matchOne(polyText: string, cands: KMarket[], minScore = 0.5): MatchResult {\n const p = parse(polyText);\n if (p.subj.size < 2) return { ok: false, score: 0, reason: \"too few distinctive words\", k: null };\n\n let best: KMarket | null = null, bestScore = 0, bestReason = \"no candidate cleared the guards\";\n for (const k of cands) {\n if (inter(p.subj, k.p.subj) < 2) continue; // >=2 shared distinctive subjects\n if ([\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\", \"ADVANCE\"].includes(p.act) && [\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\", \"ADVANCE\"].includes(k.p.act) && p.act !== k.p.act) continue;\n if (p.yr.size && k.p.yr.size && inter(p.yr, k.p.yr) === 0) continue; // different year\n if (p.mo.size && k.p.mo.size && inter(p.mo, k.p.mo) === 0) continue; // different month/expiry\n if (p.num.size && k.p.num.size && inter(p.num, k.p.num) === 0) continue; // different threshold/level\n if (p.act === \"WIN\" && !k.p.tok.some((w) => SELECTION.has(w))) continue; // WIN must match a selection market\n const sc = overlapRatio(p.tok, k.p.tok);\n if (sc > bestScore) { best = k; bestScore = sc; bestReason = \"matched\"; }\n }\n if (best && bestScore >= minScore) return { ok: true, score: bestScore, reason: \"matched\", k: best };\n return { ok: false, score: bestScore, reason: best ? `best candidate below threshold (${bestScore.toFixed(2)})` : bestReason, k: best };\n}\n\n// RETRIEVAL INDEX for the shortlist. Inverse document frequency over the whole\n// Kalshi catalog, so a shared rare word (\"bps\", \"midterm\", \"Ocasio\") counts for\n// far more than a shared common one (\"rate\", \"market\", \"price\"). Without this,\n// a short unrelated title that happens to share one generic word outranks the\n// real match — that is exactly how Fed markets ended up matched against\n// \"Monday.com customer retention rate\".\nexport interface KIndex {\n markets: KMarket[];\n idf: Map;\n}\nexport function buildIndex(markets: KMarket[]): KIndex {\n const df = new Map();\n for (const m of markets) {\n for (const t of new Set(m.p.tok)) df.set(t, (df.get(t) ?? 0) + 1);\n }\n const N = Math.max(1, markets.length);\n const idf = new Map();\n for (const [t, d] of df) idf.set(t, Math.log(N / (1 + d)));\n return { markets, idf };\n}\n\n// Permissive CANDIDATE SHORTLIST for the LLM judge tier.\n// Optimizes RECALL, not precision — the model now does the precision work, so\n// the only job here is to make sure the true match is somewhere in the list.\n// Keeps just the high-precision contradiction guards (year conflict,\n// win/run/retire/advance conflict) and drops the subject rule, the score\n// threshold and the number guard. Ranked by summed IDF of shared tokens.\nexport function shortlist(polyText: string, index: KIndex, n = 8): KMarket[] {\n const p = parse(polyText);\n const ptoks = new Set(p.tok);\n if (ptoks.size === 0) return [];\n const scored: { k: KMarket; s: number }[] = [];\n for (const k of index.markets) {\n if ([\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\", \"ADVANCE\"].includes(p.act) && [\"WIN\", \"RUN\", \"RETIRE\", \"ADVANCE\"].includes(k.p.act) && p.act !== k.p.act) continue;\n if (p.yr.size && k.p.yr.size && inter(p.yr, k.p.yr) === 0) continue;\n let s = 0, shared = 0;\n // A zero-volume market is not tradeable; never let a dead contract win the\n // shortlist over a liquid one (this is how a 0-volume \"ticket\" market beat\n // the liquid nomination market).\n if (k.vol <= 0) continue;\n for (const t of new Set(k.p.tok)) {\n if (ptoks.has(t)) { s += index.idf.get(t) ?? 0; shared++; }\n }\n if (shared >= 2 && s > 0) scored.push({ k, s });\n }\n scored.sort((a, b) => b.s - a.s);\n const out = scored.slice(0, n).map((x) => x.k);\n\n // Belt and braces: whatever the retrieval ranking does, the strict\n // deterministic match is always worth showing the judge.\n const strict = matchOne(polyText, index.markets, 0.5);\n if (strict.ok && strict.k && !out.some((x) => x.ticker === strict.k!.ticker)) {\n out.unshift(strict.k);\n if (out.length > n + 1) out.pop();\n }\n return out;\n}\n","deleted",false,"label",[14],"7b98160e-759a-451e-ac63-bac16ce91a02",["D",1789595019450],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Live Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage monitor (detect-only)","imageUrl","userId","5a6bd924-f7ef-46ed-95a2-11ef633bd193","pinnedFileId","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-adfd5fd204b2","pinPreview","pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","01a0ac28-941c-777f-a124-9765c1807b9c","tursoName","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02","tursoHostname","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02-val-town.aws-us-east-2.turso.io","tursoMeasuredAt",["D",1789596070409],"pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_9":10,"_106":102},"org",{"_9":10,"_99":100,"_101":102,"_55":56,"_103":104,"_105":42},"branch",{"_35":89,"_11":90,"_22":28,"_91":45,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":12,"_98":10},"isOwned",60,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","displayName","Joaquin Rubio","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKu9e2FTAA0T_eao8qJSdToUv1ioGcVQUV0-zlGd4zBo0YpRA=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","ctx",{"_82":-5,"_140":141,"_142":143,"_144":145,"_146":42,"_147":42,"_148":42,"_149":32,"_150":-5,"_151":-7,"_152":-7,"_153":63,"_154":42,"_155":42,"_156":-5,"_157":42,"_158":42,"_159":42,"_160":-5},"ENV",{"_111":112,"_113":114,"_115":90,"_116":117,"_118":119,"_120":121,"_122":123,"_124":125,"_126":127,"_128":129,"_130":131,"_132":133,"_134":135,"_136":137,"_138":139},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","c73f21da490985bff19c279eb0e09db24d688e4f","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town","orgs",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]