[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6,"_7":8},"actionData","errors","root",{"_107":108,"_109":110},"routes/embed.x.$handle.$name.$",{"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":14,"_15":16,"_17":18,"_19":20,"_21":-5},"handle","joaquinrubio","name","predmarket-monitor","path","desk.tsx","project",{"_22":45,"_11":12,"_33":46,"_47":-5,"_48":42,"_49":50,"_51":50,"_52":53,"_54":-5,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":32,"_60":-5,"_61":-5,"_62":63,"_64":65,"_66":67,"_68":69,"_70":71,"_72":-5,"_73":74,"_75":74,"_76":77,"_78":77,"_79":77,"_80":74,"_81":74,"_82":83,"_84":85,"_86":87,"_88":42},"file",{"_22":23,"_11":14,"_24":25,"_26":-5,"_27":28,"_29":30,"_31":32,"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":-5,"_13":44},"permalink","https://www.val.town/x/joaquinrubio/predmarket-monitor/code/desk.tsx","extension","id","326700fa-866e-432e-8078-bc797834eb0d","fileId","f9d09f46-b245-11f1-bd95-1607ee4eb77e","parentId","branchId","f1c2802b-7a05-402a-8e59-0a360e509b53","branchVersion",34,"latest",true,"createdAt",["D",1789617448415],"version",1,"fileType","http","content","import { sqlite } from \"https://esm.town/v/std/sqlite/main.ts\";\n\nconst GAMMA = \"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com\";\nconst STAKE = 100;\nconst esc = (s: any) => String(s ?? \"\").replace(/[&<>]/g, (c) => ({ \"&\": \"&\", \"<\": \"<\", \">\": \">\" }[c]!));\nconst money = (n: number) => (n < 0 ? \"-$\" : \"$\") + Math.abs(n).toFixed(0);\nconst pct = (n: number) => (n >= 0 ? \"+\" : \"\") + n.toFixed(1) + \"%\";\nconst cls = (n: number) => (n >= 0 ? \"pos\" : \"neg\");\n\nasync function currentPrices(cids: string[]) {\n const out = new Map();\n for (let i = 0; i < cids.length; i += 20) {\n const qs = cids.slice(i, i + 20).map((c) => `condition_ids=${c}`).join(\"&\");\n try {\n const r = await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets?${qs}&limit=100`, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(12000) });\n if (!r.ok) continue;\n for (const m of (await r.json()) as any[]) {\n try { out.set(m.conditionId, { outcomes: JSON.parse(m.outcomes ?? \"[]\"), prices: JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices ?? \"[]\").map(Number) }); } catch { /* skip */ }\n }\n } catch { /* skip */ }\n }\n return out;\n}\n\n// Cumulative realized-P&L equity curve as a simple inline SVG.\nfunction curve(vals: number[]): string {\n if (vals.length < 2) return `

The equity curve draws itself once a couple of positions resolve.

`;\n const W = 900, H = 120, pad = 8;\n const lo = Math.min(0, ...vals), hi = Math.max(0, ...vals), span = hi - lo || 1;\n const x = (i: number) => pad + (i / (vals.length - 1)) * (W - 2 * pad);\n const y = (v: number) => H - pad - ((v - lo) / span) * (H - 2 * pad);\n const pts = vals.map((v, i) => `${x(i).toFixed(1)},${y(v).toFixed(1)}`).join(\" \");\n const zeroY = y(0).toFixed(1);\n const last = vals[vals.length - 1];\n return ``;\n}\n\nexport default async function (): Promise {\n await sqlite.execute(`CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS paper_trades (\n asset TEXT PRIMARY KEY, opened_ts TEXT, category TEXT, market TEXT, side TEXT,\n conditionId TEXT, endDate TEXT, entry REAL, holders INTEGER, coHold INTEGER, conviction REAL,\n stake REAL, status TEXT, resolved_ts TEXT, won INTEGER, pnl REAL, roi REAL, settled INTEGER)`);\n const rows = (await sqlite.execute(`SELECT * FROM paper_trades`)).rows as any[];\n const open = rows.filter((r) => r.status === \"open\");\n const closed = rows.filter((r) => r.status !== \"open\").sort((a, b) => (b.resolved_ts > a.resolved_ts ? 1 : -1));\n\n // mark open positions to current market price\n const mk = await currentPrices([...new Set(open.map((r) => String(r.conditionId)))]);\n for (const r of open) {\n const m = mk.get(String(r.conditionId));\n r._cur = null; r._unreal = null;\n if (m) {\n const i = m.outcomes.findIndex((o) => o.toLowerCase() === String(r.side).toLowerCase());\n if (i >= 0 && Number.isFinite(m.prices[i]) && r.entry > 0) { r._cur = m.prices[i]; r._unreal = STAKE * (m.prices[i] / r.entry - 1); }\n }\n }\n open.sort((a, b) => (b._unreal ?? -1e9) - (a._unreal ?? -1e9));\n\n const wins = closed.filter((r) => r.won === 1).length;\n const realized = closed.reduce((a, r) => a + (Number(r.pnl) || 0), 0);\n const unrealized = open.reduce((a, r) => a + (r._unreal ?? 0), 0);\n const net = realized + unrealized;\n const hit = closed.length ? (wins / closed.length * 100) : 0;\n\n // category scoreboard (economics vs politics), realized + current open exposure\n const cat: Record = {};\n for (const r of rows) {\n const c = cat[r.category] ??= { open: 0, openUnreal: 0, closed: 0, wins: 0, realized: 0, sumRoi: 0 };\n if (r.status === \"open\") { c.open++; c.openUnreal += r._unreal ?? 0; }\n else { c.closed++; if (r.won === 1) c.wins++; c.realized += Number(r.pnl) || 0; c.sumRoi += Number(r.roi) || 0; }\n }\n const scoreRows = Object.entries(cat).sort((a, b) => b[1].realized - a[1].realized).map(([name, c]) =>\n `${esc(name)}${c.open}${money(c.openUnreal)}${c.closed}${c.closed ? (c.wins / c.closed * 100).toFixed(0) + \"%\" : \"—\"}${c.closed ? pct(c.sumRoi / c.closed) : \"—\"}${money(c.realized)}`\n ).join(\"\") || `No positions yet.`;\n\n // equity curve values (cumulative realized over resolution order)\n const curveVals: number[] = [];\n let acc = 0;\n for (const r of [...closed].reverse()) { acc += Number(r.pnl) || 0; curveVals.push(acc); }\n\n const openRows = open.map((r) => {\n const cur = r._cur != null ? Math.round(r._cur * 100) + \"c\" : \"—\";\n const u = r._unreal;\n return `${esc(r.market)}${esc(r.side)}${Math.round(r.entry * 100)}c${cur}${u == null ? \"—\" : money(u)}${r.holders}${r.coHold}${esc(r.category)}`;\n }).join(\"\") || `No open paper positions yet.`;\n\n const closedRows = closed.map((r) =>\n `${esc(r.market)}${esc(r.side)}${Math.round(r.entry * 100)}c${r.won ? \"WON\" : \"LOST\"}${r.settled ? \"\" : \"*\"}${money(Number(r.pnl))}${pct(Number(r.roi))}${esc(r.category)}`\n ).join(\"\") || `Nothing resolved yet.`;\n\n const html = `\n\nSmart-Money Paper Desk

Smart-Money Paper Desk

Paper trading only — no real money. $${STAKE}/position. Open bets are marked to the live market price. Auto-refresh 60s. ${esc(new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 16).replace(\"T\", \" \"))} UTC.

${money(net)}

Net P&L (real + unreal)

${money(realized)}

Realized (closed)

${money(unrealized)}

Unrealized (open)

${hit.toFixed(0)}%

Win rate (${wins}/${closed.length})

${open.length}

Open positions

Equity curve

Cumulative realized profit and loss as positions settle.

${curve(curveVals)}

Scoreboard by category

The question that decides everything: does the tradeable ECONOMICS lane (US macro) beat the POLITICS control (mostly foreign elections)?

\n${scoreRows}

Category	Open	Open P&L	Closed	Win %	Avg ROI	Realized

Open positions

Live bets, marked to the current market price.

\n${openRows}

Market	Side	Entry	Now	Unreal.	Traders	coHold	Cat.

Closed positions

Resolved bets. * = decided by price, not yet officially settled.

\n${closedRows}

Market	Side	Entry	Result	P&L	ROI	Cat.

Detect + paper-execute only. Never places real trades. Entry and mark are observed mid prices, gross of fees, not executable quotes. Earned-autonomy track: prove an edge on paper before any real capital.

`;\n return new Response(html, { headers: { \"content-type\": \"text/html; charset=utf-8\" } });\n}\n","deleted",false,"label",[14],"7b98160e-759a-451e-ac63-bac16ce91a02",["D",1789595019450],"deletedAt","legacyEnvVars","privacy","public","httpPrivacy","description","Live Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage monitor (detect-only)","imageUrl","userId","5a6bd924-f7ef-46ed-95a2-11ef633bd193","pinnedFileId","01a0ac2c-e909-715a-acf6-adfd5fd204b2","pinPreview","pinMigrated","screenshotVersion","likeCount",0,"orgId","01a0ac28-941c-777f-a124-9765c1807b9c","tursoName","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02","tursoHostname","7b98160e759a451eac63bac16ce91a02-val-town.aws-us-east-2.turso.io","tursoMeasuredAt",["D",1789596070409],"pinned","userPerm","r","valPerm","blobPerm","rw","emailPerm","sqlitePerm","projectPerm","telemetryPerm","user",{"_9":10,"_106":102},"org",{"_9":10,"_99":100,"_101":102,"_55":56,"_103":104,"_105":42},"branch",{"_35":89,"_11":90,"_22":28,"_91":45,"_92":-5,"_93":-5,"_94":-5,"_95":-5,"_96":-5,"_97":12,"_98":10},"isOwned",60,"main","projectId","forkedBranchId","forkedBranchVersion","forkedProjectPrivacy","forkedProjectId","forkedProjectOrgId","projectName","userHandle","displayName","Joaquin Rubio","avatar","https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKu9e2FTAA0T_eao8qJSdToUv1ioGcVQUV0-zlGd4zBo0YpRA=s96-c","tier","free","canRestrictVals","profileImageUrl","ctx",{"_82":-5,"_140":141,"_142":143,"_144":145,"_146":42,"_147":42,"_148":42,"_149":32,"_150":-5,"_151":-7,"_152":-7,"_153":63,"_154":42,"_155":42,"_156":-5,"_157":42,"_158":42,"_159":42,"_160":-5},"ENV",{"_111":112,"_113":114,"_115":90,"_116":117,"_118":119,"_120":121,"_122":123,"_124":125,"_126":127,"_128":129,"_130":131,"_132":133,"_134":135,"_136":137,"_138":139},"REACT_APP_SENTRY_DSN","https://586020d86f05489db63a554690acf1e9@o1398359.ingest.sentry.io/6724499","RENDER_GIT_COMMIT","c73f21da490985bff19c279eb0e09db24d688e4f","RENDER_GIT_BRANCH","POSTHOG_API_TOKEN","phc_nmoyuAkStEZuUp69rYlg1DZgrIt19Gx0Y4Hwf8tGgJP","POSTHOG_API_HOST","https://wart.val.town","WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{val}.web.val.run","APP_URL","https://www.val.town","MODULE_URL","https://esm.town","VANITY_WEB_API_TEMPLATE","https://{label}.val.run/","DENOLS_URL","https://lsp.val.town","NODE_ENV","production","CLOUDFLARE_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY","0x4AAAAAACtaIZJH7s9rBMZ6","GOOGLE_CLIENT_ID","875989696899-jtsqkhlbdv5jrlsk8631p7ipjg3c6o62.apps.googleusercontent.com","STRIPE_PUBLISHABLE_KEY","pk_live_51N2zvWEpZTTLipIkVEwXrUG9AT0yeOOEYxszarZT1jpsZV58Ly6wlg3SltZpHN26CUalOBmUSY7adQRQiSkCZz2500qSXNkf8Y","API_URL","https://api.val.town","orgs",[],"preferencesKeybindings","default","preferencesTheme","light","preferencesFixers","preferencesCopilot","preferencesSelectionAi","preferencesCloseBrackets","preferencesChatPanelState","preferencesDprint","preferencesDenofmt","notificationCount","flagDenols","isBusinessOrgMember","businessOrgHandle","isBusinessOrgAdmin","isHigherTownieTier","navCollapsed","currentOrgId"]