seven-day high-conviction trades (revolut cfds)

snapshot: generated june 2024, horizon ≈ 7 calendar days. levered via revolut (×5 retail cap).

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tl;dr – positions

case 1 – euro fragility play: short EUR/USD from ≈1.090, tgt 1.070, stp 1.104.
case 2 – summer crude squeeze: long Brent (UKOil) from ≈79, tgt 86, stp 75.
case 3 – silicon fatigue: short NAS100 from ≈18 600, tgt 17 800, stp 19 000.

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macro-cum-prediction scaffolding

polymarket odds (6 jun 24) price a 54 % chance the fed skips a cut till >sep; euro election vol trending ↑; crude backwardation quietly steepening. consensus complacent – that’s our edge.

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technical snapshots

eur/usd

daily ichimoku: price re-entered cloud top 1.088; lagging span under price – bearish momentum.
rsi 14 d = 52, curling down; room to 35 without being oversold.
volume profile: high-node 1.095 acting as ceiling.

brent

4h bullish flag breakout; measured move ≈7 $.
macd histogram flipped green on 2 jun; no divergence yet.
commitments of traders: money managers net long but below 1y mean – positioning not crowded.

nas100

weekly rsi = 76 (extreme); last three candles form evening star-ish.
market breadth: %members >50 dma at 41 % (weak internals masked by megacaps).
options skew inverted – call wing pricey; traders leaning one-way – tasty for fade.

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risk maths

size so 1-2 % acct var per idea. with ×5 leverage that’s roughly 40–50 pips eur/usd, 1.5 $ brent, 150 pts nas100 per 1 % risk slice.

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why these won’t implode (probably)

setup rests on unidirectional catalysts (policy divergence, seasonal demand, sentiment unwind).
tight stops outside recent ATR to cap tail.
diversified drivers (fx, energy, equity) – low cross-corr in shock regime.

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escape hatch

if fed shocks dovish → kill eur/usd & nas100 shorts; keep crude. if opec jawbones extra supply → trail stop on crude.

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disclaimer

not advice. numbers evaporate. only wager what you’re cool losing while sipping burnt coffee.

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