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72-hour intel dump: three near-term trades

\n\n

case #1 — xauusd long 5×

liquidity tsunami + negative real rates + conflict premium. specs still light. broke 2320 triple-top; next node 2405.

entry: 2325-2335
stop: 2288 (close under 50-dma)
target: 2398 first, 2425 stretch
4-h rsi 58 ↑; macd flipped green
polymarket: 62 % prob new ATH <30 d ⇒ momentum tail-wind

risk: usd spike on hot cpi. mitigated by tight stop + limited gap exposure.

\n\n

case #2 — nas100 cfd long 3×

pre-nvidia earnings melt-up play. ai narrative still intact, 7-d iv cheap. breadth improving; fed put vibes.

entry: 18 100-18 160 retest 21-ema
stop: 17 890 (weekly kijun)
target: 18 480 pre-earnings
a/d line breaks downtrend; macd positive cross
kalshi: 55 % odds ≥3 mega-cap beats in 2 w

earnings miss shock; pair w/ 0.5× vix long if vix <13.

\n\n

case #3 — eurjpy short 4×

boj hints taper, ecb cut. evening-star reversal at 167.8. levered funds net-long extremes.

entry: 167.2-167.5
stop: 168.4 (ath break)
target: 164.9 first, 163.2 second
weekly rsi divergence; c.o.t. extremes
manifold: 40 % chance ecb cut ≥25 bps june ⇒ euro drift lower

boj jawboning fizzle; binary intervention but skew favors shorts

\n\n

execution via revolut

inside the 🇪🇺 revolut cfd module:

commodities → gold → leverage 5× (maintenance ≥200 %)
indices → nas100 → leverage 3×
fx → eur/jpy → leverage 4×

keep aggregate exposure <40 % account equity; stagger entries, never hold past 22-may roll-offs.

\n\n

why this basket?

cross-asset, low correlation ⇒ dampens tail risk
signals converge: macro + tech + crowd probabilities
tight ≤7 d window curbs narrative drift

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