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Timeline logic and server functions\nimport { getCachedConversion, setCachedConversion, getCachedEmojis, setCachedEmojis } from \"./cache.ts\";\n\n// Smart internal conversion function with proper capitalization and punctuation\nexport function convertQuestionInternally(question: string): string | null {\n const cleanAndCapitalize = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X be Y?\" -> \"X will be Y\"\n const willBePattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+be\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const willBeMatch = question.match(willBePattern);\n if (willBeMatch) {\n const [, subject, predicate] = willBeMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will be ${predicate.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X happen?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const willHappenPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+happen\\??$/i;\n const willHappenMatch = question.match(willHappenPattern);\n if (willHappenMatch) {\n const [, subject] = willHappenMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"When will X Y?\" -> \"X will Y\" (general case)\n const generalWillPattern = /^(?:When will|In what year will)\\s+(.+?)\\s+((?:release|launch|reach|hit|achieve|solve|cure|discover|invent|create|build|develop|announce|reveal|complete|finish|start|begin|end|die|live|marry|divorce|retire|resign|win|lose|fail|succeed|break|fix|open|close|buy|sell|move|travel|visit|return|leave|arrive|depart|graduate|study|work|play|eat|drink|sleep|wake|run|walk|fly|drive|ride|swim|jump|dance|sing|speak|write|read|listen|watch|see|hear|feel|touch|taste|smell|think|know|learn|teach|help|save|kill|destroy|love|hate|like|dislike|want|need|have|get|give|take|make|do|go|come|stay|remain|become|turn|change|grow|shrink|expand|contract|rise|fall|increase|decrease|improve|worsen|fix|repair|break|damage|build|destroy|create|delete).+)\\??$/i;\n const generalWillMatch = question.match(generalWillPattern);\n if (generalWillMatch) {\n const [, subject, action] = generalWillMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will ${action.trim()}`);\n }\n\n // Pattern: \"In what year will X?\" -> \"X will happen\"\n const yearPattern = /^In what year will\\s+(.+?)\\??$/i;\n const yearMatch = question.match(yearPattern);\n if (yearMatch) {\n const [, subject] = yearMatch;\n return cleanAndCapitalize(`${subject.trim()} will happen`);\n }\n\n return null; // Return null if no pattern matches\n}\n\n// Function to get emojis for a title using your texttoemojis API with caching and rate limiting\nasync function getEmojisForTitle(title: string, retryCount = 0): Promise {\n // Check cache first\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(title);\n if (cached !== null) {\n return cached;\n }\n \n try {\n const response = await fetch(`https://texttoemojis.val.run/api?text=${encodeURIComponent(title)}&count=3`);\n \n if (response.status === 429) {\n // Rate limited - implement exponential backoff\n const backoffTime = Math.min(1000 * Math.pow(2, retryCount), 60000); // Max 1 minute\n console.log(`Rate limited on emoji API, backing off for ${backoffTime}ms`);\n \n if (retryCount < 5) { // Max 5 retries\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, backoffTime));\n return getEmojisForTitle(title, retryCount + 1);\n } else {\n console.log(`Max retries reached for emoji API, skipping emojis for: ${title}`);\n return '';\n }\n }\n \n if (!response.ok) {\n console.error(`Emoji API error: ${response.status} ${response.statusText}`);\n return '';\n }\n \n const data = await response.json();\n const emojis = data.emojis || '';\n \n // Cache the result\n await setCachedEmojis(title, emojis);\n \n return emojis;\n } catch (error) {\n console.error('Error fetching emojis:', error);\n return '';\n }\n}\n\n// PERFECTED ALGORITHM - Helper functions\nfunction sum(arr: number[]): number {\n return arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n}\n\nfunction filterDefined(arr: (T | null | undefined)[]): T[] {\n return arr.filter((x): x is T => x != null);\n}\n\nfunction getAnswerProbability(contract: any, answerId: string): number {\n const answer = contract.answers.find((a: any) => a.id === answerId);\n return answer?.prob || 0;\n}\n\nfunction getInitialAnswerProbability(contract: any, answer: any): number {\n return answer.prob || 0;\n}\n\n// PERFECTED IMPLEMENTATION - Fixed logic for complex threshold markets like Nonogram\nexport function getExpectedDate(contract: any, initialOnly?: boolean): number {\n const { answers, isResolved } = contract;\n \n // Market type detection: Check if probabilities sum to ~1.0 (bucket-style) or are cumulative (threshold-style)\n const totalProb = answers.reduce((sum: number, a: any) => sum + (a.prob || 0), 0);\n const shouldAnswersSumToOne = Math.abs(totalProb - 1) < 0.1; // If sum ≈ 1.0, it's bucket-style\n \n // For threshold-style markets, filter out resolved NO answers (they have 0% probability)\n const activeAnswers = shouldAnswersSumToOne ? answers : answers.filter((a: any) => !a.resolution || a.resolution !== 'NO');\n \n const answerProbabilities = filterDefined(\n activeAnswers.map((a: any) =>\n initialOnly\n ? getInitialAnswerProbability(contract, a)\n : isResolved\n ? a.prob\n : getAnswerProbability(contract, a.id)\n )\n );\n \n const answerMidpoints = activeAnswers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n \n if (shouldAnswersSumToOne) {\n // Bucket-style: simple weighted average\n return sum(answerProbabilities.map((p, i) => p * answerMidpoints[i]));\n } else {\n // Threshold-style: calculate discrete probabilities\n const discreteProbs = [];\n \n // First period: probability of the first threshold\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[0]);\n \n // Middle periods: difference between adjacent thresholds\n for (let i = 1; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n discreteProbs.push(answerProbabilities[i] - answerProbabilities[i - 1]);\n }\n \n // Final period: remaining probability\n const afterLastProb = 1 - answerProbabilities[answerProbabilities.length - 1];\n \n // Calculate expected value using discrete probabilities\n let expectedValue = 0;\n \n // Sum probability-weighted time periods\n for (let i = 0; i < answerProbabilities.length; i++) {\n expectedValue += answerMidpoints[i] * discreteProbs[i];\n }\n \n // Handle the \"after last threshold\" case\n if (afterLastProb > 0 && answerMidpoints.length > 0) {\n const lastMidpoint = answerMidpoints[answerMidpoints.length - 1];\n let timePeriod;\n \n // FIXED: Use ALL answers for time period calculation, not just active answers\n const allMidpoints = answers.map((a: any) => a.midpoint!);\n \n if (allMidpoints.length > 1) {\n // Use actual time period between last two thresholds from ALL answers\n const secondLastMidpoint = allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 2];\n timePeriod = allMidpoints[allMidpoints.length - 1] - secondLastMidpoint;\n } else {\n // For truly single threshold case, use a reasonable default\n timePeriod = 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 30 days default\n }\n \n const beyondLastMidpoint = lastMidpoint + timePeriod;\n expectedValue += beyondLastMidpoint * afterLastProb;\n }\n \n return expectedValue;\n }\n}\n\nexport interface TimelineEvent {\n id: string;\n statement: string;\n originalQuestion: string;\n expectedDate: number;\n confidence: number;\n volume: number;\n url: string;\n creator: string;\n emojis?: string;\n}\n\nexport interface ProgressUpdate {\n phase: string;\n current: number;\n total: number;\n message: string;\n}\n\nexport async function fetchTimelineEvents(onProgress?: (progress: ProgressUpdate) => void): Promise {\n // Phase 1: Fetch ALL date markets by making multiple requests\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'fetching', current: 0, total: 1, message: 'Fetching date markets from Manifold...' });\n \n const allMarkets = [];\n let offset = 0;\n const limit = 100;\n \n while (true) {\n const response = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?contractType=DATE&limit=${limit}&offset=${offset}`);\n const markets = await response.json();\n \n if (markets.length === 0) {\n break;\n }\n \n allMarkets.push(...markets);\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'fetching', current: allMarkets.length, total: allMarkets.length, message: `Fetched ${allMarkets.length} date markets...` });\n \n // If we got fewer than the limit, we've reached the end\n if (markets.length < limit) {\n break;\n }\n \n offset += limit;\n \n // Add a small delay to be respectful to the API\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 100));\n }\n \n console.log(`Fetched ${allMarkets.length} total DATE markets`);\n \n if (allMarkets.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('No DATE markets found');\n }\n \n // Filter for open markets and future dates only\n const now = Date.now();\n const openMarkets = allMarkets.filter(market => \n !market.isResolved && market.closeTime > now\n );\n \n console.log(`Found ${openMarkets.length} open DATE markets`);\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'filtering', current: openMarkets.length, total: openMarkets.length, message: `Found ${openMarkets.length} open markets` });\n \n // Phase 2: Process markets and calculate predictions\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'processing', current: 0, total: openMarkets.length, message: 'Processing markets...' });\n \n const marketsWithPredictions = [];\n \n for (let i = 0; i < openMarkets.length; i++) {\n const market = openMarkets[i];\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'processing', current: i + 1, total: openMarkets.length, message: `Processing market ${i + 1}/${openMarkets.length}: ${market.question.slice(0, 50)}...` });\n \n try {\n const answersResponse = await fetch(`https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/${market.id}/answers`);\n const answers = await answersResponse.json();\n \n if (!answers || answers.length === 0) {\n continue;\n }\n \n // Use the perfected algorithm with the contract containing fresh answers\n const contractWithAnswers = { ...market, answers };\n const weightedAverage = getExpectedDate(contractWithAnswers);\n \n if (!weightedAverage || isNaN(weightedAverage)) {\n continue;\n }\n \n // Filter out past dates\n if (weightedAverage < now) {\n console.log(`Skipping past date: ${new Date(weightedAverage).toISOString().split('T')[0]} for market: ${market.question}`);\n continue;\n }\n \n // Find top choice for confidence (from all answers)\n const topAnswer = answers.reduce((max, answer) => \n answer.prob > max.prob ? answer : max, answers[0]\n );\n \n marketsWithPredictions.push({\n id: market.id,\n question: market.question,\n expectedDate: weightedAverage,\n confidence: Math.round(topAnswer.prob * 100),\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url+ \"?r=Q2hhcmxpZQ\",\n creator: market.creatorName\n });\n \n // Small delay to be respectful\n if (i < openMarkets.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 50));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error processing market ${market.id}:`, err);\n }\n }\n \n console.log(`Valid future markets found: ${marketsWithPredictions.length}`);\n \n if (marketsWithPredictions.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('No valid future markets with predictions found');\n }\n \n // Phase 3: Convert questions to statements with caching\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'converting', current: 0, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: 'Converting questions to statements...' });\n \n const statements = [];\n const questionsNeedingAPI = [];\n const questionIndices = [];\n let cachedConversions = 0;\n \n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const question = marketsWithPredictions[i].question;\n \n // Check cache first\n const cachedConversion = await getCachedConversion(question);\n if (cachedConversion) {\n statements[i] = cachedConversion;\n cachedConversions++;\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'converting', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Converting: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (${cachedConversions} cached)` });\n continue;\n }\n \n // Try internal conversion\n const internalConversion = convertQuestionInternally(question);\n if (internalConversion) {\n statements[i] = internalConversion;\n // Cache the internal conversion\n await setCachedConversion(question, internalConversion);\n } else {\n questionsNeedingAPI.push(question);\n questionIndices.push(i);\n }\n \n onProgress?.({ phase: 'converting', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Converting: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (${cachedConversions} cached)` });\n }\n \n // Helper function to clean up API responses\n const cleanApiResponse = (text: string): string => {\n // Remove question marks and add periods\n let cleaned = text.replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n // Capitalize first letter\n cleaned = cleaned.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + cleaned.slice(1);\n return cleaned;\n };\n \n // For questions that couldn't be converted internally, use the API\n if (questionsNeedingAPI.length > 0) {\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'api-converting', current: 0, total: questionsNeedingAPI.length, message: 'Using API for complex conversions...' });\n \n for (let i = 0; i < questionsNeedingAPI.length; i++) {\n const originalIndex = questionIndices[i];\n const question = questionsNeedingAPI[i];\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'api-converting', current: i + 1, total: questionsNeedingAPI.length, message: `API converting: ${i + 1}/${questionsNeedingAPI.length}` });\n \n try {\n const singleResponse = await fetch('https://dcm31--3ecca0c4696611f092dd0224a6c84d84.web.val.run/convert', {\n method: 'POST',\n headers: {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n },\n body: JSON.stringify({ question })\n });\n \n if (singleResponse.ok) {\n const result = await singleResponse.json();\n const cleanedStatement = cleanApiResponse(result.statement);\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanedStatement;\n // Cache the API conversion\n await setCachedConversion(question, cleanedStatement);\n } else {\n // Fallback: simple conversion\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanedFallback;\n // Cache the fallback\n await setCachedConversion(question, cleanedFallback);\n }\n \n // Rate limiting delay\n if (i < questionsNeedingAPI.length - 1) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 1200));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error converting question ${i}:`, err);\n const fallback = question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = cleanApiResponse(fallback);\n statements[originalIndex] = cleanedFallback;\n // Cache the fallback\n await setCachedConversion(question, cleanedFallback);\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Phase 4: Get emojis for each statement with caching\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'emojis', current: 0, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: 'Adding emojis...' });\n \n const statementsWithEmojis = [];\n let emojiRateLimitHit = false;\n let cachedEmojis = 0;\n \n for (let i = 0; i < marketsWithPredictions.length; i++) {\n const fallback = marketsWithPredictions[i].question.replace(/^(When will|In what year will)\\s+/i, '').replace(/\\?$/, '') + ' will happen';\n const cleanedFallback = fallback.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + fallback.slice(1).replace(/\\?+$/, '.');\n const finalStatement = statements[i] || cleanedFallback;\n \n if (emojiRateLimitHit) {\n // Skip emoji fetching if we've hit rate limits, but still check cache\n const cached = await getCachedEmojis(finalStatement);\n statementsWithEmojis[i] = { statement: finalStatement, emojis: cached || '' };\n if (cached) cachedEmojis++;\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'emojis', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Emojis: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (rate limited - ${cachedEmojis} cached)` });\n continue;\n }\n \n try {\n // Get emojis for the statement (this function handles caching internally)\n const cachedFirst = await getCachedEmojis(finalStatement);\n if (cachedFirst !== null) {\n cachedEmojis++;\n }\n \n const emojis = await getEmojisForTitle(finalStatement);\n statementsWithEmojis[i] = { statement: finalStatement, emojis };\n \n onProgress?.({ phase: 'emojis', current: i + 1, total: marketsWithPredictions.length, message: `Adding emojis: ${i + 1}/${marketsWithPredictions.length} (${cachedEmojis} cached)` });\n \n // Rate limiting delay for emoji API - slower to be more respectful, but only if not cached\n if (i < marketsWithPredictions.length - 1 && cachedFirst === null) {\n await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 500));\n }\n } catch (err) {\n console.error(`Error getting emojis for statement ${i}:`, err);\n statementsWithEmojis[i] = { statement: finalStatement, emojis: '' };\n \n // If we hit too many errors, assume rate limiting and stop trying\n if (err.message?.includes('429') || err.message?.includes('rate')) {\n emojiRateLimitHit = true;\n console.log('Rate limit detected, skipping remaining emoji requests');\n }\n }\n }\n \n // Phase 5: Combine the data\n onProgress?.({ phase: 'finalizing', current: 1, total: 1, message: 'Finalizing timeline...' });\n \n const timelineEvents: TimelineEvent[] = marketsWithPredictions.map((market, index) => {\n const statementData = statementsWithEmojis[index];\n \n return {\n id: market.id,\n statement: statementData.statement,\n originalQuestion: market.question,\n expectedDate: market.expectedDate,\n confidence: market.confidence,\n volume: market.volume,\n url: market.url,\n creator: market.creator,\n emojis: statementData.emojis\n };\n });\n \n return timelineEvents;\n}","deleted","label",[98],"permalink","https://www.val.town/x/dcm31/when/code/logic.ts","extension","actionData","errors"]