Experiments in Prediction Probabilities as a Consumer Product

A blog post exploring contrarian approaches to building prediction market platforms, with a focus on deep-dive single-market strategies rather than broad aggregation.

• Automatically detects system preference for dark or light mode
• Seamlessly switches themes based on user's system settings
• Smooth transitions between themes

Interactive todo list showing development progress:

• ✅ Automatic dark/light mode detection
• 📸 Screencaps of existing prediction market platforms (pending)
• ✅ Improved bettors/traders visual (circle diagram)
• ✅ Email signup with frequency preferences
• 🐦 Manifold Maven tweet embed (completed)
• ✅ Annotation system for draft mode editing
• ✅ Substack-inspired design

• Three subscription categories:
  • Prediction Markets Updates (default checked)
  • build.moi Platform Updates
  • All Updates from Charlie
• Frequency selector with options:
  • Daily
  • Every few days
  • Weekly (default)
  • Bi-weekly
  • Monthly
  • Quarterly

Draft mode editing system for collaborative feedback:

• Click the pencil button (✏️) to enter annotation mode
• Click on any paragraph to add comments, suggestions, or todos
• Visual indicators show annotated sections
• Annotation panel shows all comments with context
• Delete annotations individually
• Perfect for editorial review and feedback

• Sophisticated typography with serif fonts for headings and callouts
• Elegant color scheme with red accents instead of purple
• Improved visual hierarchy with better spacing and typography
• Enhanced color scheme that works in both light and dark modes
• Professional header with navigation
• Wired/Verge-inspired but handmade aesthetic

• Expandable iframe embeds for prediction markets
• Improved bettors/traders visualization (concentric circles)
• Responsive design that works on all devices

1. Title: Changed to "Experiments in Prediction Probabilities as a Consumer Product"
2. Content Refinements:
   • Removed the "Bloomberg Terminal" comparison
   • Updated language around AI usage in deep dive approach
   • Emphasized manual editorialization before AI automation
   • Added context about Fed rate cuts as existing example
   • Clarified the soccer market example as a "treatment" demonstration
3. Visual Improvements:
   • New concentric circle diagram for bettors vs. information consumers
   • Manifold Maven tweet embed (completed)
   • Placeholder for prediction market platform screencaps
   • Sophisticated serif typography for headings and callouts
   • Elegant red accent color scheme replacing purple

├── server.ts          # HTTP server with file serving
├── index.html         # Main blog post with all features
├── contributors.json  # Contributors data
└── README.md         # This documentation

• Styling: CSS Custom Properties for theming + TailwindCSS
• Typography: Serif fonts (Times New Roman, Georgia, Baskerville) for headings and callouts
• Color Scheme: Sophisticated red accent colors with warm highlights
• Dark Mode: CSS prefers-color-scheme media query
• JavaScript: Vanilla JS for all interactions
• Error Handling: Val Town's error catching script

The site uses CSS custom properties for consistent theming:

• --bg-color: Background color
• --text-color: Primary text color
• --text-secondary: Secondary text color
• --border-color: Border colors
• --accent-color: Links and buttons
• --card-bg: Card backgrounds
• --header-bg: Header gradient

1. Visit the site to read the full blog post
2. Use the expand buttons on embedded prediction markets for full-screen viewing
3. Sign up for the newsletter with your preferred frequency and topics

1. Click the pencil button (✏️) in the bottom right to enter annotation mode
2. Click on any paragraph to add comments, suggestions, or todos
3. View all annotations in the side panel
4. Delete annotations when addressed
5. Click the checkmark (✅) to exit annotation mode

1. Remix this project on Val Town
2. Edit contributors.json to add your information
3. Submit your changes

• Add screencaps of existing prediction market platform front pages
• Implement backend for email signup processing
• Add more interactive prediction market examples
• Expand annotation system with categories (comment, suggestion, todo, delete)

• Export annotations as markdown
• Email notifications for new annotations
• Version control for draft iterations
• Integration with prediction market APIs for live data
• Comment system for public feedback

This project is built on Val Town and welcomes contributions. To add yourself to the contributors list:

1. Fork/remix this project
2. Edit contributors.json with your details
3. Submit your changes

Format for contributors:

{
  "name": "Your Name",
  "project": "Your Project Name",
  "url": "https://your-project-url.com",
  "description": "Brief description of what you're building"
}

Open source - feel free to remix and build upon this work.